SPY Price action is a bit different this time aroundUmmm, the fast and short answer is that I am overall bearish on the SPY and anticipate we ultimately get rejected from this ATH (all time high) trendline ...however, it is starting to get complicated, lol.
Disclaimer: Be aware the following comments are just my observations and I am not a professional trader. I am school teacher by day and stock junky by night, lol. I just enjoy looking at the charts, doing light TA and occasionally making a little money, lol.
Anyways, here we go:
We have finally reached the major downward sloping trend line or what I call the all time high trendline (ATH). There is the possibility that we can get a slight push above the ATH (all time high) trendline (currently $408-$407.5) - with the more likely contested area being between $409 - $415. I’m still a bit confused as to why anyone would think SPY would ever "breakout" above of this downtrend now. Our government is aggressively trying to reverse inflation - a breakout would be fighting against their efforts. I know I've said this a few times before - but a breakout would be flirting with a bull market - and I guess if that were to happen, I'd imagine that the FED would not only continue interest rate hikes, but they would also become even more aggressive. With that being said, I guess it would be judicious for me to also explore the bullish side of all of this, lol.
Price action has been unusual and unlike the past two occasions we’ve approached the ATH trendline, this time has been with tremendous momentum. Also, it’s worth noting we’ve been in the general trend line area for over 3 days. The first time we touch the trendline (March 29th) we spent about 24 hours before diving back down. The second time (August 16th) we were rejected immediately. However, this time around we tagged the trend line around 3-4 times and even broke above it one of those days. Here is a pic of the charts for comparison:
This could mean nothing at all – but I do think it is important to note that this time around it has been different. Perhaps it is signaling that the bear market is near it’s end but we might have one more leg down coming.
…Oh and I just want to address one more thing, lol. The “Christmas Rally” - for all those who might be confused about when Christmas rallies typically occur, here you go: “A Santa Claus rally describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the week leading up to Dec. 25.”
Santa Claus Rally Definition (investopedia.com)
A very real possibility is that SPY begins that leg down now (as in next week, lol), creates the ultimate bottom (possibly the $330 area) and then Santa comes along sometime after the 18th and saves Christmas – and the market, lol.
