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Alltimehigh

S&P New All Time Highs - Risky BuyS&P New All Time Highs - Risky Buy The Emini and S&P 500 made a new all time high again today, leading many to believe this market is still strong. In some ways it is, but it is more important to realize it is also in a bull flag trading range. This makes it a risky place to buy up here. This is where strong bulls who bought lower will start looking to take profits, and strong bears will start looking to sell for a move down. Why is it risky to buy now? There is only a 40% chance of a measured move up based on the height of the trading range. And the risk needed to enter now is large (below the bottom of the trading range). There is at least a 50% chance of a test down soon, back into the range. The middle of the trading range is a magnet and will likely get tested before the bull trend continues. Furthermore, if the bears are soon able to create a strong reversal bar for the large wedge, it could increase the probability to 60% for two legs down. If there is a quick and large move up in the next few weeks, it would likely act as a climax and final flag reversal, increasing the likelihood of a sell off. Dont think just because there is no reversal yet that the market cant or wont sell off. Look at the past two sell offs from this area. They began from bull bars (Jan 18 two bar reversal), or small inconspicuous bars (Sep 18 doji to outside bear bar). But the follow through was strong and fast. Of course, this does not mean a shorter term trader cant buy and make money. Day traders can do many things investors do not or should not. But as far as a long term investment, this is simply not a safe one to buy at the current price level unless you are willing to sit through a deep pullback and scale in. And if you are - why not just wait and buy then? If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
SP:SPX
by tradersmentality
3
Bitcoin BTC 20K All-time-high October 2020 (Rough Estimate)First I want to mention this is my first TV chart idea and I'm no professional trader by any means. Take this idea with a grain of salt. Based on my relatively simple chart, I think there's a good probability of Bitcoin hitting the 20k target during October of this year. If this target is reached I suspect one of two scenarios. I'm leaning more towards further upside breaking through 20k after a small shakeout. Bitcoin has steadily increased in price since inception and unless there's a black swan event to damage confidence (very possible) I think new interest combined with more preparation to handle high numbers will benefit Bitcoins price in the following months. Alternatively perhaps MSM news will pump the "20k ATH Bubble news" and new investors will get dumped on with a sharp retrace. In this scenario I can see revisiting 12k as a worst case scenario, by then I suspect Bitcoin will want to resume bullish momentum.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by NFTArtist
2
Short Bonds on Retest w/ Concurrent SPY rallyTL;DR short bonds for the week until FOMC decision 6/19/19 with no more upside pressure, consolidating at current level with volume. SPY is 70 points off of high and is aiming to test that resistance a 3rd time in this year. Fundamentally: SPY is about to reach all time highs, with some more support as a fed rate cut is predicted (bringing hope in the short term). While a China Trade deal is still uncertain, Trump seems determined to make one at G20 end of this month. It seems the market has taken a hopeful turn leading up to the meeting and do not have hard economic data to trade off of this week of 6/10/19. 6/19/19 is an FOMC decision, however, where interest rate may be cut sending bond prices higher. Bonds and Equities could both rise on this news. Technicals: 10yr reached the same highs experienced nearly a year ago with volume as stocks were sliding. Now they have reached the zone without going down to test any of the broken resistance levels as supports and bulls are failing to drive it further. The point-of-control shows significant "gravity" (market profile) down at the ~124'28 level which it could go as low as to test. R:R: Local High 127'16 (Stop Loss), Profit Target 124'28, resulting in ~4:1 reward.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by aahlad
Estimated Tothemoon Model. $150K in 2022Welcome to advanced Tothemoon analysis! Well I did something) The estimated Tothemoon model. This is an example of how you can use the fundamental Bitcoin metrics along with simple proportions and drawings. And without any H&S, gartleys and butterflies. Okay, I'll tell you briefly what I've done. Used tools: 1) Cost per Transaction ( $/Tx , miners revenue divided by the number of transactions) 2) The blue line represents Bitcoin's ATH price 3) The black line represents ATH $/Tx mapped to the corresponding price on the chart 4) Bitcoin Halvings (the dates are shifted because the time scale doesn't contain such dates) I made several conclusions that may seem obvious, but still: ATHs of the $/Tx and price happened at the same time . $/Tx starts to decrease after a new ATH price was reached. A new $/Tx peak will happen in the middle of 2022 . The ATH-to-ATH price movement can give about 600% . Each new ATH-to-ATH gain is approximately one-third of the previous gain. The price starts to grow up after each halving . The price crosses its ATH levels after each halving . So, we cannot be sure that the previous ATH of $20K will be reached before the 3rd halving will happen. The periods that are needed to pass ATH levels after each halving look like an arithmetic progression. For the 1st halving it was about 4 months , for the 2nd - 8 months . Thus, for the 3rd it can be 12 months . The 3rd halving's growth will be 900-1000% approximately. We can expect approximately a 2-year growth after the 3rd halving. According to the model the price can drop again in the nearest months of 2019 . And then it will continue to approach the ATH $/Tx level. There can play positive news about Bakkt and ETFs. Bitcoin will reach $100K in 3 years. The estimated target at the end of the 3rd halving cycle is $150K . You can see all of this on the chart. Good luck and Happy Trading!
BNC:BLX
by everget
13
$SPY - Weekly Chart Analysis Heading Into Easter Long Weekend$SPY - with its consistent grind for the month of April, we have finally found ourselves approaching ATH (All time highs) from back in October 18'. All indicators illustrating market breadth is exhausted and due for a pullback. With earnings and volatility arising in the majority of S&P names, we will be mindful of both directions the market can take. For healthy longs, we would like to see a slight pullback to $285-$290 level of consolidation to let the market catch it's breath and overbought sentiment. Main focus for day trades have been day 2 continuation plays off highly correlated news-based plays moving irrelevant to the market conditions. Other focus setups have been on the earnings reports and pre-market gappers that also tend to more irrelevant to the market conditions. Still keeping a mindful approach to how the $SPY is acting in conjunction with my watch-list. On gap up days, market tends to give less opportunities at the open and for longs. Key is to be patient, let the pullback/dip take place and base out, then look to attack the healthy long setups that have bullish support from the overall market. If we do hit doomsday mode where media and major names start to tank during earnings season, will look to focus my watch-list on the inverse ETF's (UVXY, TVIX) as they are my bread and butter during volatile market dips. Have a great long-weekend everyone and I will see you all Monday!
AMEX:SPY
by BullsOnWallStreet