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TRX.X (Tron) Cup and Handle forming for bullish continuation?Hi everyone, this is my first idea published, so I hope I am clear enough! Also, Happy New Year! Recently, we saw Tron follow a nice bullish uptrend and then BOOM a rally up to a new ATH! That was great! Now, thankfully, there is a healthy pullback that is very much needed to avoid a huge crash. Those that bought high, I think you are still in the clear. I am seeing a cup and handle forming on the hourly for tron. The cup is clearly made in the brown/yellow arc, with the parallel channels in purple representing the formation of the handle. As of now, RSI is moving towards the oversold, which is great news because it could relay the message that this is, in fact, coming to its end of the handle in the coming hours/day. I believe we have a good chance of having a wick fill to the 358 sash, but I will be much more conservative and say a risky entry to maximize gains (if this does form) is ~380 sash. That's playing it with HOPES that the handle forms and doesn't continue to down trend, but the vortex indicator is starting to begin its exhaustion to the downside as the price continues to fall. The first half of the cup has low volume relative to the second half of the cup, especially close to the rim. This is another indicator of the cup and handle pattern. THE SAFEST, BEST entry would be AFTER the breakout of ~571 sash on high volume. This would prove to us that when it breaks the rim, the bullish pattern will continue. Our stop loss (if you like to use them, just watch out for the manipulation) would be ~539 sash. Yes, you may miss a nearly 50% gain. Our first target price is ~690 sash, both reasonable and logical, as it is 62% of the height of the cup. Our second target price is ~809 sash, being 126% of the cup height. Our third target price is HODL FOR THE MOON. :) Given the circumstances, the width of the handle will most likely be less than half the width of the cup, and less than half the height of the cup. Again, a RISKY entry is close to ~380 sash....be thoughtful of your assets and your impulse control, THEY ARE KEY to being successful! It is better to gain only 20% than lose 80%. Our best entry should be a breakout of 571 sash with high volume on the breakout. Yes, hodl, but don't listen to people and noise, DO YOUR DD. Listen to the charts, your trading rules, and the fundamentals. If I am wrong, I am wrong, but I am aiming to not going into these trades by hoping, but rather making smart trader decisions. If this helps you, I am very happy!! Best of luck to everyone!
Long
by Eurocrem
16
ETHUSD: Consolidation Breakout And New Levels To Buy.ETHUSD update: New highs made as price touches 890 which should not be too surprising since there is a double bottom and higher low formation off the 647 area. This report will highlight what is reasonable to expect from here. The 814 level is a previously projected target where price basically peaked at the height of the BTC rally. Since then, it has retraced and consolidated, JUST LIKE BTC is doing at the moment. Consolidations are just another word for triangles and triangles are trend continuation patterns. The trend was never bearish. Price is now fluctuating in this area again which offers an opportunity to lock in some profit for swing trade longs. This is a best practice. It reduces risk and allows you to capitalize on the herd while they are buying. Buying now would be a bad idea even though it may look attractive since the "verticalness" is returning. The risk of retrace increases, and that is why it is better to lock some profit it and then hold on to some to see IF the market will continue higher to the next extension target levels. 944 is the upper boundary of the reversal zone where price can fail and retrace back to a newly relevant support level. 975 is the 1.618 extension projected from the 647 low which overlaps a previous extension measured weeks earlier. This is the range where price is more likely to put in a dramatic peak as the market unfolds and provides a reasonable estimate of where to measure reward potential from. As far as the potential retrace, the 735 level is the .382 of the recent bullish structure which is now the nearest relevant support. If price decides to break lower, the 639 to 574 area would be the range to watch since it is the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. If price cannot maintain the current breakout momentum, it will more than likely retest the middle of the range which makes the 735 area more attractive in terms of looking for a reversal structure to go long. I have previously written that the middle of ranges are where price action is more random, but IF price is coming off of a high, that is a different scenario and serves as an exception. In summary, the breakout to 890 is a heads up that this market may be setting up for a broader rally. As a swing trader, I want to be long, but not at highs. The next retrace will at least provide a better level to measure risk from, whether it is 735 or higher. The objective is now to wait for price action to unfold in a reversal pattern where risk is more attractive relative to the potential reward levels currently in place. If price falls through 735 without finding support, then the current move will be a false breakout and at that point is more likely to retest the low of the range since this is where the herd panics. Either way If I am going to buy, it has to be based on my plan which minimizes the kind of bad habits that have been reinforced in this recently unrealistic trading environment. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
Cardano (ADA/BTC) Swinging To New HeightsAfter gaining mainstream attention, Cardano (ADA) has seen unprecedented growth and has successfully reached a new all-time-high as previously projected. Now ADA has broken out of yet another bullish pennant and is looking to achieve higher growth. Cardano (ADA) is looking strong on both the fundamental and the technical perspective. One thing to keep in mind, as seen in the previous analysis is that in the short term, if Bitcoin(BTC) rises to new heights, altcoins such as ADA could drop in price because the majority of attention will be on Bitcoin due to the fact that cryptocurrency investors tend to have a fear of missing out (FOMO) on Bitcoin gains and thus sell altcoins for BTC in the short term. First Target: 3460 Second Target: 4350
Long
by DeejaiRiangkrul
2
ETHUSD: 1K Near But Watch For These Reversal Patterns.ETHUSD update: New all time highs made at 863 with no bearish activity in sight. At this rate, this market can reach 1k in a matter of a day or two as money rotates out of BTC again. That is not a very difficult forecast to present, anyone that has been watching these coins for a month can do that. In this report I am going to highlight the signs to watch for IF this market decides to retrace sooner than expected. There is actually one bearish sign that is invisible on these charts and that is the 5 wave structure that is now in place (originating from the previous consolidation at the 425 area). I am not including the wave counts on this chart to avoid clutter, BUT when 5 impulse waves are in place, what often follows is a corrective move. This doesn't mean it WILL happen, because 5th waves can extend dramatically as we have seen in these relentlessly strong markets, which is something to be aware of especially since price is now hesitating around the 814 target which is an extension measured from the weekly time frame (I wrote about this in a previous report). The key to timing a bearish reversal is waiting for a structure such as a lower high, a failed high or double top on a large time frame. This can take hours or days to unfold and often begins with a reversal candle such as a engulfing formation or pin bar. As long as these formations are not appearing, this market is more likely to continue higher. Since I never had intentions to short this market, the best I can do is wait for a relevant support level to measure risk from for a swing trade long. If you are an investor, then this short term analysis is of little value and must keep the two mindsets separate. The level I am waiting for is the 684 area which is the .382 of the current bullish structure which can offer an attractive long IF the market retests and validates. If the market happens to break lower (it can happen), the 573 to 500 zone is the next area to watch which is the .618 of the current bullish structure. These are the prices that offer attractive reward/risk for a short term swing trade. Since these markets are extremely reluctant to pull back (maybe after the holidays), it is now within reason to see price reach for the 1K level which is an important psychological resistance (just like 20K for BTC). There is a 1.0 extension at 972 and is projected from the 610 low. This offers an estimate of where price can experience resistance and possibly reverse especially since it is so close to the 1K level. In summary, when it comes to short term trading, it is less about fundamentals and more about evaluating changes in price action. Not knowing how to separate these mindsets seems to be a serious problem that will give the skilled traders the advantage over the lottery ticket holders who have no plan, no process or way to evaluate market information that facilitates effective decision making. Vertical markets attract these participants in droves and once these markets cool off (note: all markets do) there will be plenty of opportunity for short term traders that have a well defined decision making process (also known as a plan). A plan does not have to be complex, but it should be based on scenarios that are derived from fundamental or technical measures at least. What many do not realize is the market is momentarily rewarding gambling. Buy at any price and win big, and will continue until something comes out of nowhere and pulls the rug out. Be prepared, take some money off the table when you can, and appreciate what the market offers as a gift that can be taken away at any moment. Comments and questions welcome. Today at around 11:30 AM E.S.T. I will be appearing on NASDAQ with Jill Malandrino live. Check it out here: Https://twitter.com/Nasdaq
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
Ethereum Classic (ETC/USD) Launching UpwardsAfter a successful run up from my previous analysis, Ethereum Classic is a dark horse in the cryptocurrency markets, staying off mainstream news media and gradually ascending towards all time highs. This is a projection of what I believe is a potential possibility in the coming weeks for Ethereum Classic. The first and second targets for this projection are listed down below with potential capital gains of 42% and 70% respectively. 

 First Target: $55 
 Second Target: $65
BITTREX:ETCUSDLong
by DeejaiRiangkrul
Bitcoin, The CME And The 20K Target.BTCUSD update: 19891 is the all time high at the moment while a pin bar is currently unfolding on this time frame which is a reversal sign that implies an oncoming short term correction. Will the open of the CME futures take this market to 20K anyway? First let's talk about the technical situation that is present now. Momentum has been clearly bullish with very limited pullbacks for a month. The recent 5K pullback was met with immediate buying so the pain went away quickly. Right now, if this market retraces, a reasonable level to look for support is the 14450 area which is the .382 of the current bullish structure (measured from the 5400 low). IF price retests this level, it is an area that offers better reward/risk compared to where price is right now since the bullish trend would still be intact. A decisive break below (anything is possible) can lead to a retest of the 11k to 8650 area which is the .618 zone of the structure measure from 5400. If price retraces this far, it will more likely unfold into a broader consolidation as it builds another base. These levels provide areas to anticipate for swing trades or position trades on the long side, which is better than jumping in at any random level in terms of risk. All these markets are in a state of euphoria and will return to equilibrium because that is how all markets work, it doesn't matter how "different it is this time". No one knows when or how this will happen. Often it is a piece of news that comes out of nowhere and cannot be anticipated by TA, especially long term TA. As far as targets go, the 18973 target has been compromised (it is the 2.618 projection from the 5578 low) but price is now hesitating in this area (these targets are usually not exact but do provide a good estimate). This level along with the current pin bar offers a heads up to at least lock in some profit if you are long from much lower prices and planned to hold only for shorter term movements. This is NOT a time to get short in anticipation of a broader correction. There is another target at the 24480 level which is based the 1.0 projection from the 12730 low. It is within the proportion of the current structure and does offer another potential area to lock in profits along the way IF price actually reaches this area in a relatively short time (a week?). There is no way to accurately quantify the probability of price reaching this target, but based on the euphoria and momentum, there is a better chance of it happening than not at this point (things can change fast though). In summary, price is showing a bearish pin bar going into the open of the CME futures. My opinion of the futures has been and still is this: they will bring balance to a wild market. The CME contract is larger (5 coins compared to 1 on the CBOE) which means it will be easier for large players and institutions to scale and manage larger positions and more complex strategies which are not necessarily dependent on the direction of the market. This translates into more noise and consolidation rather than immediate sell off or rally. If I am going to take a swing trade long position in this market, I need to at least see price retest the 14450 area and then the rest of my position evaluation can proceed from there. As unpopular as it is right now, I will not buy anywhere near highs especially in runaway markets because I prefer to mitigate risk, not gamble. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
16
LTCUSD: The Retrace Before 500?LTCUSD update: The 350 all time high then followed by a pin bar leads to corrective price action and a potential support. In this report I am going to highlight the risk/reward and what to look for upon a retest of the high. I have always considered LTC more of a buy and hold type of market rather than a trading market because the price action was not as eventful as the BTC and ETH markets. Now that it has broken out to dramatic new highs, this market might offer some short term trading opportunities as well. On that note, the current price action is showing a minor correction. It went from 350 to 244 in a matter of hours (in the coin world, that is minor). 244 is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the 73 low. In strong markets, this retrace level often holds and is a good place to look for reversal patterns. A bullish pin bar is currently in place on this time frame which is a sign of buying. Any retest of the 244 level followed by a double bottom or failed low would generate a buy signal based on my trading plan. By the time the appropriate candles are in place, you will most likely not get the 244 price, but high 240s to low 250s is not unreasonable. As far as risk goes, it is clearly defined by 244. That means if you are looking to take a short term swing trade, a stop can be placed somewhere slightly below this level, which will then shed light on the attractiveness of the trade. Based on the current structure, a retest of the 300 level is reasonable and when compared to the risk, (assuming an average price of 250) you are looking at around 5:1 which is more than acceptable. Keep in mind, attractive risk/reward is not a trigger to enter a trade, but instead a guide to help filter if a reversal pattern is worth entering or not. Why 300 and not 350? Why not higher? Reasonable risk and reward is based on market proportions, not feelings, hype or fundamentals. There is a .618 resistance zone at the 309 to 326 area, plus 300 may act as a psychological resistance. Remember, this is the short term trading mentality and NOT to be confused with investing (It seems most new investors and traders have no idea how to differentiate between the two mindsets). A retest of the 300 level is an area to take some short term profits IF that is the type of trade you have entered. In terms of the bigger picture, there is a 1.0 extension at the 507 level which is projected from the 244 low and is not that far fetched given the blind euphoria in these markets. This target would serve as a level to lock in some profits for longer term trades (long term in this market is a couple of months). There is no guarantee that this level will be reached and is based on the proportion of current price action. Some unexpected news can come out and completely change everything (long term TA cannot account for that). What if this market keeps going lower? A break of 244 can possibly lead price back to the 178 to 133 area which is the .618 support zone of the current bullish structure. Anything goes in these markets. IF price revisits this area, any broader reversals would serve as good buying signals, especially for longer term positions. In summary, buying pull backs in strong markets is an effective behavior when it comes to timing markets. When and how to enter exactly is more of a function of your trading plan, outlook and risk tolerance. If you are more long term, then less precision and more pain tolerance is in line with that mindset, while the short term trader needs to adhere to specific criteria like levels, reversal patterns and exiting at proportionate targets. What many new traders do not realize is that it is possible to employ multiple time horizon strategies simultaneously, it is just a matter of keeping them separate, almost like trading different accounts, or different instruments. Is it easy? No, but this is why having a well defined trading plan is so important. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
ETHUSD: Roadmap To 814 Target?ETHUSD update: With 760 being the all time high and no real weakness in sight, it is important to gain a sense of how far can these markets go on the short term in order to decide whether to invest now or not. In this report I will refer to Elliott Wave in order to evaluate the potential reward / risk over the short term (next few weeks/month). People often ask, "Why do you not always use Elliott Wave in your analysis?". Just because it is not on a chart, does not mean I am not using it. As a price action trader, I am always aware of the wave counts and will only write about them when they are relevant and clear. Otherwise they will confuse people. In this chart, I am observing the wave counts on a weekly time frame. Why weekly? Because it provides a much clearer perspective of how much further this market can go before the next correction.(Note to new investors: markets do eventually correct). As far as the current count, it appears this market is in a Wave 5 of a larger Wave 3. According to the basic rules of an impulse wave, wave 3 can never be the shortest wave. Often, wave 3's are large, move fast and are very euphoric. We are seeing this across many of these coins at the moment. Often any news and events that are in line with this trend will drive the price faster, while counter trend or negative news will has less of an effect. The bias is clearly bullish. Based on the 1.618 extension measured from the Wave 2 low (140), the next proportionate target is the 814 area which provides some insight as far as where this market may find some significant resistance and begin a potential Wave 4 correction (I know no one wants to hear about corrections). The popular view is "Hey 1K around the corner!", which is possible, but these 1.618 extensions combined with the fact that this market is in a 5th wave, highlights the riskiness of taking new long positions at these levels. (Unless you don't mind a couple of hundred points of pain). IF the market finds resistance in this area and a Wave 4 unfolds, a relevant level to evaluate for support (and possible buying opportunities) the the 518 to mid 400s area. Why? 518 is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the broader Wave 2 low. This is where buying for the longer term would offer more attractive reward/risk compared to where price is now. In summary, Elliott Wave serves as a road map, and is NOT an exact forecasting tool. There is NO precision in these markets, especially right now. Buying and holding works great when markets don't correct and go up 30%+ per day which is not realistic and will be temporary. For those who are in from lower levels, and plan to hold as an investment, it never hurts to lock some profit in and hold on to some no matter what happens. There seems to be this blind greed where people consider not locking in profit at the "top" a loss. Selling tops and buying bottoms are lottery tickets and if you are coming out of this market with more money than you entered with, that is a win which will not be appreciated until reality sets in. When markets are extreme as these are right now, it always helps to get perspective from a very large time frame like a weekly. Applying waves counts in this context does not offer exact buy/sell signals but instead provides a framework and levels that illustrate where the reward/risk is more attractive for entering longer term positions. No matter how you slice it, these markets are risky. The greater the risk the greater potential reward, you just have to be aware of the broader probabilities. Buying highs works at the moment, but in the long run is an ineffective behavior. The bad habits that are being created in this environment will be opportunities for the skilled traders when the correction comes. This cycle repeats itself over and over and has since the beginning of financial markets, and is the reason why TA has merit for those who know how to use it properly. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
BTCUSD Vs. XBT: Levels For Oncoming CBOE Futures Volume.BTCUSD update: Price is not far from the all time high of 17171 just hours away from the start of today's business on the CBOE. This is when more volume will enter the market and have a more significant effect in either direction. In this report I am going to highlight what to watch for at the two upcoming resistance levels. 17171 and the price range up to 18300 are the areas to watch closely which this market is likely to test. Since the futures have opened, price momentum has been bullish and has taken out the minor resistance zone between the 15500 to 16230 area (.618 of bearish structure). What many do not realize is that volume in the futures market outside regular business hours is often much lower and if these contracts are going to have any effect, it is more likely to happen during the day session. The reason why these levels are important to watch is because today, many more shorts will be able to enter this market compared to the absence of shorting ability by most U.S. participants. A bearish reversal candle off of the 17171 high will be viewed as a potential double top. While the reversal zone just above is where price can spike to a new high, attract all the breakout traders and then fall apart. This often begins with a pin bar, or outside bar which is likely to happen below 18300. If price breaks above this upper boundary, then 20k becomes a much more likely target. If there is a correction, the 14250 to 13575 zone (.618 of current bullish swing), and the 12700 to 11550 area would be the range to look for bullish reversal patterns. Again these levels offer the most attractive reward/risk for smaller time frame trading and not investing. In other words, if you are looking to buy, these are the higher probability levels to evaluate IF price manages to retest them. At the moment, this market is not showing any signs of significant weakness or reversal patterns. It is still too early, but that may change during the day session of the futures. There is no way to predict what will happen. The best you can do is isolate a couple of possible scenarios and see if the market cooperates, then measure risk from there. This is the short term trading mentality and what you will be competing with when the futures traders really enter this market. In summary, I expect the CBOE futures along with the CME next week to bring balance to a market that is moving 2500 points a day. People entering this market now are entering with extremely unrealistic expectations and are only looking at, "Wow, 1000 to 17000 in less than a year!". In the long run, I do believe it will go higher, I have been long term bullish the entire time. It is the short term that people do not understand and will require more skill to navigate. I do not think the futures will cause a major sell off, instead I think they will enforce reality which means more realistic ranges and movements. Retracing 5k in two days and recovering it is amazing, (unless you bought at 17000) but it is not reality. Whether you are investing or looking to trade shorter time horizons, knowing what is more likely to happen based on price action will improve your timing but there is an undercurrent of ignorance that the professional futures traders are going to capitalize on. And that is the lack of risk management which is typical of new money entering hot markets near highs. The hype will attract this money and the professionals will take it out and this is what the futures will facilitate. Just something to think about. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
BTCUSD - Mercury Rising, path to continued highs? To those that asked me yesterday, I indicated that if we cross $11,900 (GDAX prices), that would trigger a short-term buy signal from which we could get a range projection target of at least 800 points. As I write this, we are seeing a gain of 1000 points, give or take, and now the question turns to: "how much higher can we go?". BTC' has ignored the overbought signals across many time frames, defied the critics, and continues to barrel forward. However, as we all know, what goes up most certainly come back down. Now, no one can say with certainty that they know exactly when this could happen. These are uncharted territories and we could even push forward to 18k before any serious correction. With that said, I must caution you, my PERSONAL opinion is that the higher BTC' goes before Dec 18-31, and the faster it does so, the more likely that BTC' will be heavily shorted afterwards. I too, stand very curious to see how the interaction of the BTC' futures markets will play out across the cryptosphere. CBOE' launches BTC' futures trading this Sunday December 10th, CME group will launch BTC' futures on Sunday December 17th (effective trade date December 18th), and BitMex is launching a very interesting product as well. For those that may not be too familiar with the concepts of high level finance, futures and swaps bring an interesting perspective to the mix, especially in this market environment. Many in the industry, with far more experience than myself, have actually mentioned the built in inconvenience to short these crypto markets, at the present moment, that the FUTURES markets will address. This will be an interesting couple of weeks ahead to say the least. From the technical perspective, we seem to have paper thin support around the 12k mark, more support can be found at 11050, but that is not as dense as the perma bulls would like to believe. A break below that and we can head much lower. As far as the upside, I would like to see a clean break of the 13100-13300 level, with force, before calling for a short-term buy signal which takes us to 14k' or slightly above. Last but not least, normally don't do this, but I charted with the 50/200 EMAs given that I have noted that the 50 day moving average is acting as solid support if price action regresses towards that average. I have highlighted these points for reference and a potential zone where this may in fact be tested again. The crypto markets are not like any other market we have traded in before, it is imperative that one be reactive, dynamic, and follow the clues that the market tells us, current risk levels are at an all time high, and rising. Some words to always remember: "No one has ever lost any money taking profit!" / "Take and lock in profit when you can, not when you have to!". References: 1. CBOE' Futures details: cfe.cboe.com 2. CME Futures details: www.cmegroup.com 3. BitMex Swap details: www.bitmex.com Comments and questions welcome below.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by eag09
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Up, Up And 12.5K. Going Higher?BTCUSD update: 12K reached as this market is pushing highs as I write. The reversal zone boundary at the 12100 area has also been compromised which is a sign that strength is likely to persist for now. Sure this is historical and will continue to attract more and more attention, which feeds these markets even more (positive feedback loop: google it). The only thing I can do as this market offers little opportunity for me right now is continue to measure and evaluate supports while observing price action. Little opportunity? It's going straight up! As I have explained many times, I do not buy highs. I follow my plan, not my fear because opportunity is an unlimited resource. I am curious to see how the futures affect the price action in a few days and would actually prefer to trade the futures instead because of the security and flexibility that the new contracts will offer, especially for shorter time frame strategies which is my specialty. In terms of levels at the moment, price is sitting on the 1.618 extension projected from the 8821 low. The next reasonable target is the 13237 level (1.0 projected from 8821) and then the 14700 which is the 1.618 extension projected from 8821 as well. The nearest support is the 11050 level which is the .382 of the recent bullish swing at the moment. As price continues higher, this level will continue to adjust higher as well. These levels serve as points of reference to keep expectations somewhat in line and offer short term targets. IF price breaks below the 11050 level, I will be anticipating further selling because the level is so shallow relative to the recent structure. Until something like that happens, there are NO reasons to sell or get short at the moment. It's funny because I read an article from a well known financial publication that actually mentioned the built in inconvenience to short these markets that the futures will address. In summary, times like this can easily get the best of your emotions and blind you to the amount of risk that is present at the moment. I believe the futures will bring more balance to this market, not drive it to 30K anytime soon. I do not fight markets, I just read the signs and adjust to what the market presents and will participate as long as it is within the boundaries of MY plan. If the market is not in line with my plan, it doesn't matter how high or low it goes, I will avoid it all together. Most importantly if you had the courage to get in recently, just make sure you have a well defined plan that will guide your decisions when this market turns because when it happens, it will be fast. Depending on others opinions to base your decisions on is a really bad idea. The type of market that we are in at the moment is rare, and can persist long enough to make the world believe that "it's different this time". This is why I day trade (other markets) because it doesn't matter what the market does, you simply adjust and trade. Comments and questions welcome. (Thank you everyone for the feedback from my previous report. It was very helpful).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
33
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 12K Around The Corner?BTCUSD update: This market is poised to push 12k after consolidating for about a half day, as the bullish momentum continues. Price is still within a potential reversal zone, but NOT enough of a reason to short. In my previous report, I wrote about the built in long bias coupled with the freedom from institutions. No one knows what is going to happen when the futures start trading, even the experts who set up new futures contracts have no idea. The sentiment of the crowd appears to view institutional involvement as a whole new wave of large buyers that will drive the market dramatically higher, but do not realize institutions trade in more complex ways. I believe this new level of complexity will facilitate a more balanced market which is not the most beneficial for short term retail traders. Before I get into the TA, think about this for a moment: A fund manager has a responsibility to his investors and wants to show a positive return, BUT that is not the only way fund managers get paid. They also charge management fees which are not performance based, but instead are incentivized by how much capital is under management. Wealthy investors invest more into instruments that are stable, and that show a consistent return over time. They invest less in wildly fluctuating markets like this. Futures and options can be used to create more stable performance which will attract more capital, which results in higher management fees. My point is this: This market will become a thick slow grind market, similar to the S&P 500 or EURUSD. It will offer opportunity as always, it just won't be as generous and easy as it is now. As of now, price is sitting in the middle of the reversal zone and still no signs of weakness which means both long and shorts are high risk at these levels. In terms of risk/reward, shorts would make more sense, BUT with no signal and no confirmation, there is no evidence based reason to be short. What to look for is reversal candles or patterns around or just under the 12k level, or a break below 10722 which is the .382 of the recent bullish swing. Until a bearish pattern appears, and until supports break, this market can continue higher. How high? If it breaks beyond the 12100, the next target extension is 12400 which is measured from the 7871 low. This is based on the structure that is in place at the moment. In summary, as short term traders, the BEST we can do is embrace what the market is telling us, whether we personally agree with it or not. I believe this market is in a bubble and will correct harshly once the fake tether situation unwinds, but that is an opinion that the market could care less about. I do not act on my opinions, I act on technical facts. Sure I want to be long as it goes higher, but I am not willing to take the risk at these levels. Even retraces are tough because they are so shallow relative to how far a fast this market has come along. So when I face so much conflict, I stay flat until the market presents an opportunity that is in line with my trading plan. It is my plan that keeps me out of trouble, and minimizes any impulse stimulated by these fast moving prices. When you are in this business for a long time, you learn that capital preservation is actually more important than capital gain. This is why I seek consistency rather than lottery tickets. If you cannot trade with any consistency, in time the profit you have now will be donated back to the market. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
27
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 10K? Game Of Musical Chairs.BTCUSD update: Hanging on all time highs of 9400 as I write this. The spot light has switched from ETH back to BTC. Are these markets going up forever? Not in a straight line. This price action is euphoric and is a great place to lock in profit, but not to initiate new positions, even in the face of a 10k possibility. I will explain why. It appears that the news that is driving this market is somewhat significant, like more governments adapting blockchain, etc, and that is great for the future of this technology in general. The problem is, as many newer traders do not realize, this rate of change is abnormal and unsustainable. The strength is clear and cannot be ignored, but my point is: do not get used to this. Stocks like Yahoo and AOL (when AOL was just AOL) also used to go up 100 points a day, and moved like that for about a year (back in 1999), and today they make headlines if they move 1 point. (I realize BTC is not a stock, but I am just illustrating a point). I make this point not to elicit more fear of missing out, but instead to provide a perspective to better manage expectations as this market matures and faces many changes like the upcoming futures contract, real institutional competition and regulation. The less experienced do not understand, institutional players have better information, much deeper pockets and can hire the best talent. They are smart money, and they are not entering this market to help the little guy. Be prepared for harder markets, especially on smaller time frames. One other point to keep in mind also is that a large number of U.S. investors are prevented from shorting these markets. Exchange platforms like GDAX (Coinbase) do not allow margin accounts for retail investors in the U.S. (I can't day trade this market short, even if I wanted to.) The futures market will not have such restrictions. That may help explain to some degree the imbalance in these markets as well. As of now, there are no signs of weakness. Higher highs, especially all time highs often signal further strength. I keep reading comments about people selling all their coins and feeling bad because the market is higher. Selling the top and buying the bottom are like hitting the lottery, low probability. Thinking that you are entitled to selling the top is like thinking you should win the lottery because you bought a ticket. As short term traders the goal is to achieve consistency in a way that is reasonable in terms of the risk we are willing to take. And repeat our process over and over. Not hit home runs. My next target on this market is the 9600 area. It comes from two 2.618 extensions that are almost overlapping between 9470 and 9575 so I will estimate it slightly higher. These extensions are measured from the 7871 and 6185 lows respectively. This is a great move if you are in. If you are not, then that's okay too. There is no need to get emotional. Even though I have a higher target projected and no weakness in sight, does not mean it can turn instantly without warning. That is why buying highs, especially in euphoric markets like this presents such a high risk. The market can keep going, but no one knows when it will turn. It is like a game of musical chairs (google it), if you are going to play, you better be quick to sit once the music stops. In summary, I am not buying highs. And even if I could short, I would not because I do not short strong markets. My plan forces me to wait for a sensible retrace which is elusive, but it will eventually present itself. 8825 is the closest support (.382 measured from the 7871 low). The next support after that is 7885 area which is the .382 measured from the 5400 low and a previous resistance. The best I can do is wait and see if price produces a reversal formation on a smaller time frame at one of these levels for a possible swing trade with risk that is sensible for MY plan. Otherwise I stay flat. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
46
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: One More Leg To 500+?ETHUSD update: 483 all time high touched which is just one point higher than the 482 extension target while this market is now consolidating and attempting to break higher. The next target extension is 516 based on the current structure in place. Some people (critics) seem to think I am making up these target numbers. Just to be clear, these extension numbers are based on a proportion of the current price structure. There is no guarantee that the price will stop and reverse at these levels, but there is a greater chance. These proportions tend to act as natural inflection points that the market "herd" is more likely to react to. Whether it is self fulfilling prophecy or not, these proportions are very relevant in these highly emotional markets. So for the critics: I am not making them up, the market is. That is where the new 516 target comes from. It is the 1.618 extension projected from the 395 low. Will this market actually get there in the next day or so? I am skeptical because 500 is a psychological level that can act as a barrier, but anything is possible. Since the 355 breakout, this market has been in the first leg of a large scale Wave 3. These waves are often powerful and to fit the rule, cannot be the shortest wave within the 5 wave sequence. You can see this more clearly on the weekly time frame. Once this initial leg is complete, Wave 2 should be a relatively larger retrace than this market has been showing since the break out. As long as price stays above the bottom of Wave 1 which is 280, then it will be setting up for a 3 of 3 which can take this market much higher over the next couple of months. The retrace can take a week or so to play out, not a couple of hours or days. The most relevant level is around the 408 area which happens to be the .382 of this entire bullish structure. Again it is important to be prepared for anything. IF for any reason this market goes below 280, then this wave count will be negated. I realize that almost sounds laughable at this point, I am just saying don't neglect that scenario completely. As far as WHEN this market will retrace and offer a buying opportunity, there is no way to forecast that. At the moment, there are no signs of weakness. Price consolidates for a half a day and then continues to new highs which is what it is poised to do at the moment. Moves like this are rare and are like lottery tickets, but rates of change this rapid are extreme and not sustainable. Normalcy will return, it always does, in every market. I will not buy highs. I have been saying that since 371 and here we are 100 points higher. I have seen moves like this before in other markets so I know how they play out. My plan is simple: Watch for a retrace, a reversal and go long at an attractive reward/risk. Based on the new high, I am watching the 450 support (.382 measured from 395), the 433 support (.382 measured from 350) and 408 (.382 measured from 286). The consolidation at the moment is setting up to continue higher rather than to any of these supports, so a break beyond 476 can also offer a day trade opportunity if you are willing to accept the risk. Keep in mind the bottom of the range is 454 which means you are looking at a max of around 20 points of risk to hopefully make 25 or more in a very short period of time. It's possible to figure out a tighter stop, but that is up to you. I am not day trading these markets and NOT willing to take the risk. In summary, relentlessly strong markets like this are tough to trade because you don't know where it will turn. For the less experienced who do not know, these kind of movements are not common and if you are in that's great. My point is this: do not let your expectations get warped by a low probability condition. If you do, you will most likely have blatant disregard for risk the next time something like this appears to be happening, and you will give your profits back in the much more numerous fake outs. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Next Stop 482 Extension?ETHUSD update: All time high made at the 458.96 level (Bitfinex) while the 437 extension was blown through as bullish momentum continues. Based on current market structure, 482 is the next target. And you wonder, when is the best time to buy? In my previous report I listed levels that I was looking for in order for a possible long. Were any of them reached? The best the market could offer was 400, which was 8 points higher than my closest support which was 392. If YOU were watching closely, there was a double bottom on a 30 minute chart that offered an attractive entry. The second low of that formation occurred at 1 AM EST. I am actually sleeping at that time so I could not update my report in order to let everyone know it was a good time to get in. And this is why I provide perspective and not a signal service. Since the double bottom occurred at 400, the 392 support could have been used as a good reference point for a stop with 437 as the target. (I wrote about 437 in my previous report). So you had enough information to assess reward/risk along with a formation. I am writing this to make the less experienced aware that they key to using my analysis is NOT waiting for trade calls, but instead to learn how to think on your own. My analysis provides perspective and levels as the title describes. I keep reading comments about how I don't take any trades. Taking the trades is up to YOU because a trade requires an assessment of risk which is different for everyone. Please understand as an author, I have a greater responsibility to the community. If I say "buy", a lot of people will buy, and if they lose, I feel partly responsible so my trade calls have to be extremely well selected in order for the risk to be at a level that I feel is low enough for the majority of less experienced traders to take. And after all that, the trade may still not work out, but at least I made every effort to select one that the risk was reasonable in terms of the conditions at the time. So my message: Do not depend on anyone's trade call, take initiative, assess the risk and take responsibility for your own decisions. If you say, "but I am new, and that is why I am on here, looking for trade calls.", then you will not be successful in the long run if your plan is to blindly follow others. On to analysis! Based on the current structure, 433 (.382 measured from 392 low) is the nearest support which is very shallow and has a better chance of breaking, but since this market is so strong, it may be a level to consider upon a retest. A more reasonable and likely support is the 417 area which is now the .382 support measured from the 350 low. A retrace into this area, followed by a reversal formation would offer attractive reward/risk since the low 400's can be used as a reference for a stop. And if price retraces further, then the 392 support is the next level I would consider since it is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the 286 low. The next target is 482 and is a 2.618 extension projected from the 348 low. Also depending on how far this market retraces, the 461 area can be used as a target as well. With these levels, you have enough information to assemble a swing trade IF the market presents the opportunity (like it had at the 400 level). In summary, there is probably news out there that is driving this market higher. I do not need to know what it is in order to trade on the short term. The strength is clear, but don't forget, these markets are highly irrational, and often manipulated in ways that are different from traditional markets. There is no reason to be emotional, or feel bad for missing the relentless rally. The great thing about any financial market is opportunity is an unlimited resource because "history repeats itself" (which is a basic tenet of TA). Be flexible, watch for reversals, and most importantly understand your risk. Highs are better to take profit, not initiate positions. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
44
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: How Much Higher?ETHUSD update: All time high of 418 reached and not too far from the 437 extension. Since the break beyond the 355 range resistance, this market has been making significant progress as far as attempting to clear the big picture range. Why 437? I will explain. In my previous report, I wrote about the 371 target, and what this market had to do in order to reach the 392 level and beyond. The problem is this market refuses to retrace to a more attractive support level for a swing trade long based on MY strategy. Before this new high, I wrote about a retest of the 335 level, but the market chose 350 instead. Keep in mind I cannot monitor these markets and update my reports 24 hours a day (as some people on here seem to expect hehe). I constantly explain the ability to be flexible and nimble is required to navigate these markets, especially on smaller time frames. If you cannot figure out how to spot a higher low on your own, then you should not be trading real money. The purpose behind my analysis is to provide a perspective, or a context to help you make better decisions, NOT to make decisions for you. As of now, this market is sitting on the highs. What is reasonable to expect from here? MY plan is to wait for a retrace and attempt to buy for a swing trade long. AGAIN, if my levels are not reached, then I can't force a trade. You must decide if the risk makes sense for you and your plan IF the market ONLY offers a shallow retrace like it has been doing since the 330 breakout. I write these reports based on the risk that is appropriate for MY plan, just to be clear (I understand the majority of the community understands this, I just have to write this for the limited few who don't). Here are the levels I am waiting for: 392 which is the previous peak (old resistance, new support), 384 which is the .382 support measured from the 350 low and IF this market retraces further than that, then I will be watching the 370 to 360 support zone which is the .618 area relevant to the 350 low also. If I can manage to get long, I will be looking for this market to make a run for the 437 target (1.618 extensions measured from the 350 low). These proportions are based on market structure and is why they offer somewhat reliable estimates. At the rate this market is moving, it may NOT retest the projected supports any time soon. My plan forces me not to buy highs and wait for supports. If it retraces to a more shallow level, and the risk is within your plan, then you have to make the adjustment. I will do my best to report any adjustments to the levels that I see. One other observation about the current situation is this: I can count 5 waves starting at the 286 low. 5 waves on top of price pushing through a 1.618 extension (406) in a vertical line is often a recipe for a retrace. Just another reason not to buy these highs, and instead lock in some profit if you have been holding from much lower prices. TO BE CLEAR, I am waiting for a retrace that may not happen, I am NOT calling for a major correction. This market is likely in a large scale Wave 3 which is very bullish. In summary, this market is making significant progress as far as breaking out of the large consolidation it has been gyrating within for weeks. All time highs signal more strength to come, but also present higher risk of retrace. I am waiting for the retrace, because that is what MY plan calls for. I do my best to share observations and levels that are useful, but if you do not have a well defined strategy and process of evaluating risk, then no analysis will help you. If you cannot make decisions and accept responsibility, then you should not trade. Either find a signal service, or pay a trader to trade for you, that is my suggestion. Comments and questions welcome. (The community has been doing an excellent job of answering many questions for me. I try go through them and answer as many as I can. If you can't wait, then please PM me).
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
29