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ETHUSD: 5 Wave Completion A Bearish Sign?ETHUSD update: 1382 all time high reached which was just 3 points shy of the target projection which completes 5 large magnitude waves. The possibility of a broader correction is now increased. In my previous report, I wrote about the possibility of a subwave Wave 4 correction before the bullish Wave 5 which is now in place. That scenario has played out and price has rejected the 2.618 target projection at 1385 which is a sign that all 5 larger magnitude waves are complete. Based on this structure, it is now reasonable to expect a broader correction. Keep in mind, I am not writing this based on feelings, or irrelevant opinions. It is based on the probabilities inherent within the market structure that is in place at the moment. How is this helpful? For one, I would not be looking to establish new longs at these levels because of the increased risk of retrace. How about shorts? The reward/risk is in favor of shorts BUT there is NO immediate reversal structure at the moment. Larger magnitude turning points are often a process and require time to unfold. One bearish bar is not enough to get short in my opinion. What would be a better scenario to justify a short position? A double top or lower high. That is when momentum aligns with the attractive reward/risk. Like I have written about before decisions are better when they are evidence based. And right now there is no evidence of a momentum reversal (a peak and a bearish inside bar is a good start, but not enough to justify risk). This is one of those areas where being flat makes the most sense for MY trading plan at the moment. Now keep in mind, when I write about a broader correction, reasonable levels to anticipate are the 872 to 738 support zone which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. That is where I would look to put on a swing trade long if the price action can prove itself in that area. This type of correction can take days to unfold so a ton of patience is required. The reason why I am not that interested in the 1069 level (.382 of recent bullish swing) is because it is too shallow relative to the magnitude of correction that I am anticipating. In summary, the current situation in this market is very conflicting. On one side you have structure that signals a broader correction is more likely to unfold in the near future, while there are no reversal patterns in place (a single bar is not enough). In my opinion, until this market shows more clarity, it is easier to just stay flat. That is what my plan calls for. If your plan is more aggressive, that is fine, BUT you MUST take responsibility for your actions, because if you are going to blame others for your lack of experience, then you should NOT trade any market. My trading plan helps me not only to sort out the lower risk opportunities, but it also helps to filter out many would be losing trades. It has a cost though, and that is missing out on some good moves as well. I am okay with that because I know that generating profit and then losing it is more costly than missing out because its not just money you are losing, it is also confidence which you cannot put a value on. Opportunities in financial markets are infinite, while your capital is not. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
60
ETHUSD: Don't Buy High. Consider Bigger Picture.ETHUSD update: New all time high established at 1225 as price backs off into the mid 1100s. When markets runaway, the best thing to do is evaluate the bigger picture to get a better sense of perspective and risk, not get carried away by euphoria. In this report I am going to highlight the next proportional target as well as relevant support levels. Elliott Wave offers a way to categorize market movements and provides a framework to help anticipate how the herd is likely to react next. I am always aware of wave counts, but I do not write about them unless they are worth noting in order to avoid confusion. Now is one of those times worth mentioning where this market is in terms of wave count. At the moment, this market appears to be in a Wave 3 of a broader 5. This price action is typical of a wave 3 since it can never be the shortest wave according to impulse wave rules. This also means the next retrace will be a sub wave 4 and likely unfold in some form of narrow range triangle before breaking out and completing 5 of 5 waves. This serves as a broader road map, and is not an absolute prediction. The potential support levels for the sub wave 4 can be around the 1000 level (.382 of current bullish swing measured from 640 low) or the 863 to 771 zone (.618 of same bullish swing). These are the levels to evaluate for smaller time frame price reversals that can lead to the next bullish wave which has the proportional target of 1385 (2.618 projection measured from 492 low). Buying highs is a high risk behavior, while locking in some profit is a best practice, especially in markets that go vertical like this one. IF the current candle closes in this configuration (a bearish pin bar) that warns of further selling and can be the beginning of the sub wave 4 retrace. In summary, there are always more opportunities in these markets and no need to be emotional about missing out. All markets retrace and offer more opportunities at much more attractive reward/risk ratios. The next significant retrace in this market still offers an attractive buying opportunity for at least one more leg higher before it is reasonable to expect a much broader correction based on the current wave count. The best thing you can do is be patient and keep an eye on the bigger picture because it helps you anticipate the herd and not react to it. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
ETHUSD: Push To 1045 Before Potential Correction?ETHUSD update: Price hesitates around 1000 which appears to be developing into a double top formation. Isn't this bearish? In this report I will evaluate the price action and consider what is more likely to follow based on market structure. The price structure leading up to the 1K area is bullish and has not shown any signs of significant weakness yet. The potential double top at the moment does not carry much weight. Why? Markets that are going to retrace often reject resistance areas quickly upon a retest, not float around the highs. Based on this price action, this market is more likely to consolidate on a smaller time frame and break higher. Which is also another way of saying it is NOT a good time to short this market. Based on the most recent pull back attempt, there is now a reversal zone boundary at the 1046 level. This means price can push slightly higher into new high territory and fail for a more significant retrace. This makes the area between current price and the 1045 area an attractive place to lock in some profit, and reduce risk. It is not an area to establish new swing trade or position trades long because the risk of retrace increases the higher it goes. The 978 area which has seen some price gyration is also a notable level because it is a 1.618 extension projected from the 642 low. These levels are usually not precise, but offer a good area to estimate a general target when it comes to assessing reward vs. risk. What all this means is this: To maximize your investment and your operations in this market, you need to at least have a sense of the time horizon for your position. If you are swing trading and bought in recently, this is an area to lock in profit to justify the risk taken, which means it is wiser to unload more of the position than less since the retrace risk is so high. If you are holding for longer term, and own from much lower prices, this also offers a chance to lock in some profit and reduce risk, but you have much more flexibility because a 20 to 30% retrace is much less threatening. Without some sense to time horizon, you will be at the mercy of the market. Your greed and fear will govern your decision making and more than likely get you to buy at the high and sell at the low. As far as buying goes, I am most interested in the retrace IF the market offers such an opportunity. The 881 level (.382 of recent bullish structure) is the first level I am watching for a possible bullish reversal. If price happens to retrace further, the 835 area (old resistance/new support) and the 788 to 724 zone (.618 of recent bullish structure) are the areas I will be watching for an attractive reward/risk opportunity as far as a swing trade goes. In summary, a key concept to remember about technical analysis is this: it offers a framework to organize market information in a way that helps us uncover clues as to what the market is more likely to do in the near future. It offers a way to measure and compare the decisions of the crowd and use that information to develop potential scenarios that the market is more likely to follow. It does not mean the market WILL follow. It is up to us to adjust as new information becomes available. When a market is on it's highs, as a swing trader, that is a place for me to take some profit and reduce risk. I don't care if it goes higher without me. IF the market is nice enough to offer a more attractive opportunity by pulling back to a support, then I will be happy to look for a place to get long in the area. Having this decision making structure allows me to operate in ways that stack probabilities in my favor, and give me a better chance of a profitable outcome on a repetitive basis. Having the ability to extract smaller profits repetitively is much more valuable than a single home run. Comments and questions welcome. Special thanks to The Henry Raines Show and @Goldbug1 for having me on as a guest. Listen to the archive: www.henryrainesshow.podomatic.com
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
30
ETHUSD: Sub 1000 Psychological Resistance Area Higher Risk?ETHUSD update: 954 all time high reached as price reacts to the upper boundary of the 945 reversal zone. Price momentum is bullish and is likely to test 1000 but buying at current prices presents increased risk. This price action is nothing new. When you have strong markets like we have seen in these coins, it is still better to lock SOME profits at highs, and look to buy nearer supports. The biggest problem that I see with new investors is they are controlled by greed. They want to sell at the exact top and feel as if they have lost if the market goes higher without them. This is a normal reaction but must be identified and eliminated because this same greed is what leads to turning a winning position into a losing one. The 945 upper boundary of the reversal zone is a projected level that is measured from the 492 low. IF price fails within this zone, like it is now, that presents a situation that is similar to a double top but not as obvious. This zone, along with target extensions serve as better places to lock in profits, not establish new positions. Why not lock in all profits and just buy back on the pullback? The reason is there is no way to be certain that price will retrace or how much. By locking in some profit, you reduce risk if price decides to fall apart, and by holding onto some of the position allows you to continue to participate in the market IF it continues higher without any significant retrace. This is how a swing trade evolves into a position trade. We can't control profits, we can control risk. As far as where to buy now, the first level I am anticipating is the 835 minor support (.382 of recent bullish swing) which is also an old resistance/new support level (inversion). The second area is the 761 to 710 zone which is relative to the .618 of the recent bullish swing measured from the 640 low. Buying at these levels would be for a swing trade and would have a target some where in the high 900s. The risk has to be determined at the time of the entry. And that will be based on what kind of price action unfolds IF the market chooses to retest one of these areas. I would like to see a reversal pattern such as a double bottom or failed low before I consider anything else. What if price never pulls back? Then I miss the move. I do not care about how high or low markets go, I am only interested in opportunities that present a well defined risk, a signal that shows momentum is in my favor, and a target that is within reason and relatively attractive compared to the risk I have to take. It is possible price may hesitate to retrace and just continue higher to test the psychological 1K resistance, but the risk is unattractive at current levels. In summary, the concept of selling while you can is nothing new to professionals who are aware of the limitations of greed. When markets push highs, that is an opportunity to sell while buyers are plentiful, while selling the precise top is irrelevant. Buying strong markets at a low point offers greater reward potential at a lower risk. Controlling risk is what leads to long term success in any market, not home runs. In a case like this market, waiting for a retrace to a relevant level is the best I can do, especially when price is showing some signs of selling off of a projected resistance area. All markets eventually retrace and if the market I am interested refuses to, then I will look elsewhere for a market that offers opportunities that make much more sense in terms of the risk I have to take. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
TRX.X (Tron) Cup and Handle forming for bullish continuation?Hi everyone, this is my first idea published, so I hope I am clear enough! Also, Happy New Year! Recently, we saw Tron follow a nice bullish uptrend and then BOOM a rally up to a new ATH! That was great! Now, thankfully, there is a healthy pullback that is very much needed to avoid a huge crash. Those that bought high, I think you are still in the clear. I am seeing a cup and handle forming on the hourly for tron. The cup is clearly made in the brown/yellow arc, with the parallel channels in purple representing the formation of the handle. As of now, RSI is moving towards the oversold, which is great news because it could relay the message that this is, in fact, coming to its end of the handle in the coming hours/day. I believe we have a good chance of having a wick fill to the 358 sash, but I will be much more conservative and say a risky entry to maximize gains (if this does form) is ~380 sash. That's playing it with HOPES that the handle forms and doesn't continue to down trend, but the vortex indicator is starting to begin its exhaustion to the downside as the price continues to fall. The first half of the cup has low volume relative to the second half of the cup, especially close to the rim. This is another indicator of the cup and handle pattern. THE SAFEST, BEST entry would be AFTER the breakout of ~571 sash on high volume. This would prove to us that when it breaks the rim, the bullish pattern will continue. Our stop loss (if you like to use them, just watch out for the manipulation) would be ~539 sash. Yes, you may miss a nearly 50% gain. Our first target price is ~690 sash, both reasonable and logical, as it is 62% of the height of the cup. Our second target price is ~809 sash, being 126% of the cup height. Our third target price is HODL FOR THE MOON. :) Given the circumstances, the width of the handle will most likely be less than half the width of the cup, and less than half the height of the cup. Again, a RISKY entry is close to ~380 sash....be thoughtful of your assets and your impulse control, THEY ARE KEY to being successful! It is better to gain only 20% than lose 80%. Our best entry should be a breakout of 571 sash with high volume on the breakout. Yes, hodl, but don't listen to people and noise, DO YOUR DD. Listen to the charts, your trading rules, and the fundamentals. If I am wrong, I am wrong, but I am aiming to not going into these trades by hoping, but rather making smart trader decisions. If this helps you, I am very happy!! Best of luck to everyone!
Long
by Eurocrem
16
ETHUSD: Consolidation Breakout And New Levels To Buy.ETHUSD update: New highs made as price touches 890 which should not be too surprising since there is a double bottom and higher low formation off the 647 area. This report will highlight what is reasonable to expect from here. The 814 level is a previously projected target where price basically peaked at the height of the BTC rally. Since then, it has retraced and consolidated, JUST LIKE BTC is doing at the moment. Consolidations are just another word for triangles and triangles are trend continuation patterns. The trend was never bearish. Price is now fluctuating in this area again which offers an opportunity to lock in some profit for swing trade longs. This is a best practice. It reduces risk and allows you to capitalize on the herd while they are buying. Buying now would be a bad idea even though it may look attractive since the "verticalness" is returning. The risk of retrace increases, and that is why it is better to lock some profit it and then hold on to some to see IF the market will continue higher to the next extension target levels. 944 is the upper boundary of the reversal zone where price can fail and retrace back to a newly relevant support level. 975 is the 1.618 extension projected from the 647 low which overlaps a previous extension measured weeks earlier. This is the range where price is more likely to put in a dramatic peak as the market unfolds and provides a reasonable estimate of where to measure reward potential from. As far as the potential retrace, the 735 level is the .382 of the recent bullish structure which is now the nearest relevant support. If price decides to break lower, the 639 to 574 area would be the range to watch since it is the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. If price cannot maintain the current breakout momentum, it will more than likely retest the middle of the range which makes the 735 area more attractive in terms of looking for a reversal structure to go long. I have previously written that the middle of ranges are where price action is more random, but IF price is coming off of a high, that is a different scenario and serves as an exception. In summary, the breakout to 890 is a heads up that this market may be setting up for a broader rally. As a swing trader, I want to be long, but not at highs. The next retrace will at least provide a better level to measure risk from, whether it is 735 or higher. The objective is now to wait for price action to unfold in a reversal pattern where risk is more attractive relative to the potential reward levels currently in place. If price falls through 735 without finding support, then the current move will be a false breakout and at that point is more likely to retest the low of the range since this is where the herd panics. Either way If I am going to buy, it has to be based on my plan which minimizes the kind of bad habits that have been reinforced in this recently unrealistic trading environment. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
Cardano (ADA/BTC) Swinging To New HeightsAfter gaining mainstream attention, Cardano (ADA) has seen unprecedented growth and has successfully reached a new all-time-high as previously projected. Now ADA has broken out of yet another bullish pennant and is looking to achieve higher growth. Cardano (ADA) is looking strong on both the fundamental and the technical perspective. One thing to keep in mind, as seen in the previous analysis is that in the short term, if Bitcoin(BTC) rises to new heights, altcoins such as ADA could drop in price because the majority of attention will be on Bitcoin due to the fact that cryptocurrency investors tend to have a fear of missing out (FOMO) on Bitcoin gains and thus sell altcoins for BTC in the short term. First Target: 3460 Second Target: 4350
Long
by DeejaiRiangkrul
2
ETHUSD: 1K Near But Watch For These Reversal Patterns.ETHUSD update: New all time highs made at 863 with no bearish activity in sight. At this rate, this market can reach 1k in a matter of a day or two as money rotates out of BTC again. That is not a very difficult forecast to present, anyone that has been watching these coins for a month can do that. In this report I am going to highlight the signs to watch for IF this market decides to retrace sooner than expected. There is actually one bearish sign that is invisible on these charts and that is the 5 wave structure that is now in place (originating from the previous consolidation at the 425 area). I am not including the wave counts on this chart to avoid clutter, BUT when 5 impulse waves are in place, what often follows is a corrective move. This doesn't mean it WILL happen, because 5th waves can extend dramatically as we have seen in these relentlessly strong markets, which is something to be aware of especially since price is now hesitating around the 814 target which is an extension measured from the weekly time frame (I wrote about this in a previous report). The key to timing a bearish reversal is waiting for a structure such as a lower high, a failed high or double top on a large time frame. This can take hours or days to unfold and often begins with a reversal candle such as a engulfing formation or pin bar. As long as these formations are not appearing, this market is more likely to continue higher. Since I never had intentions to short this market, the best I can do is wait for a relevant support level to measure risk from for a swing trade long. If you are an investor, then this short term analysis is of little value and must keep the two mindsets separate. The level I am waiting for is the 684 area which is the .382 of the current bullish structure which can offer an attractive long IF the market retests and validates. If the market happens to break lower (it can happen), the 573 to 500 zone is the next area to watch which is the .618 of the current bullish structure. These are the prices that offer attractive reward/risk for a short term swing trade. Since these markets are extremely reluctant to pull back (maybe after the holidays), it is now within reason to see price reach for the 1K level which is an important psychological resistance (just like 20K for BTC). There is a 1.0 extension at 972 and is projected from the 610 low. This offers an estimate of where price can experience resistance and possibly reverse especially since it is so close to the 1K level. In summary, when it comes to short term trading, it is less about fundamentals and more about evaluating changes in price action. Not knowing how to separate these mindsets seems to be a serious problem that will give the skilled traders the advantage over the lottery ticket holders who have no plan, no process or way to evaluate market information that facilitates effective decision making. Vertical markets attract these participants in droves and once these markets cool off (note: all markets do) there will be plenty of opportunity for short term traders that have a well defined decision making process (also known as a plan). A plan does not have to be complex, but it should be based on scenarios that are derived from fundamental or technical measures at least. What many do not realize is the market is momentarily rewarding gambling. Buy at any price and win big, and will continue until something comes out of nowhere and pulls the rug out. Be prepared, take some money off the table when you can, and appreciate what the market offers as a gift that can be taken away at any moment. Comments and questions welcome. Today at around 11:30 AM E.S.T. I will be appearing on NASDAQ with Jill Malandrino live. Check it out here: Https://twitter.com/Nasdaq
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
Ethereum Classic (ETC/USD) Launching UpwardsAfter a successful run up from my previous analysis, Ethereum Classic is a dark horse in the cryptocurrency markets, staying off mainstream news media and gradually ascending towards all time highs. This is a projection of what I believe is a potential possibility in the coming weeks for Ethereum Classic. The first and second targets for this projection are listed down below with potential capital gains of 42% and 70% respectively. 

 First Target: $55 
 Second Target: $65
BITTREX:ETCUSDLong
by DeejaiRiangkrul
Bitcoin, The CME And The 20K Target.BTCUSD update: 19891 is the all time high at the moment while a pin bar is currently unfolding on this time frame which is a reversal sign that implies an oncoming short term correction. Will the open of the CME futures take this market to 20K anyway? First let's talk about the technical situation that is present now. Momentum has been clearly bullish with very limited pullbacks for a month. The recent 5K pullback was met with immediate buying so the pain went away quickly. Right now, if this market retraces, a reasonable level to look for support is the 14450 area which is the .382 of the current bullish structure (measured from the 5400 low). IF price retests this level, it is an area that offers better reward/risk compared to where price is right now since the bullish trend would still be intact. A decisive break below (anything is possible) can lead to a retest of the 11k to 8650 area which is the .618 zone of the structure measure from 5400. If price retraces this far, it will more likely unfold into a broader consolidation as it builds another base. These levels provide areas to anticipate for swing trades or position trades on the long side, which is better than jumping in at any random level in terms of risk. All these markets are in a state of euphoria and will return to equilibrium because that is how all markets work, it doesn't matter how "different it is this time". No one knows when or how this will happen. Often it is a piece of news that comes out of nowhere and cannot be anticipated by TA, especially long term TA. As far as targets go, the 18973 target has been compromised (it is the 2.618 projection from the 5578 low) but price is now hesitating in this area (these targets are usually not exact but do provide a good estimate). This level along with the current pin bar offers a heads up to at least lock in some profit if you are long from much lower prices and planned to hold only for shorter term movements. This is NOT a time to get short in anticipation of a broader correction. There is another target at the 24480 level which is based the 1.0 projection from the 12730 low. It is within the proportion of the current structure and does offer another potential area to lock in profits along the way IF price actually reaches this area in a relatively short time (a week?). There is no way to accurately quantify the probability of price reaching this target, but based on the euphoria and momentum, there is a better chance of it happening than not at this point (things can change fast though). In summary, price is showing a bearish pin bar going into the open of the CME futures. My opinion of the futures has been and still is this: they will bring balance to a wild market. The CME contract is larger (5 coins compared to 1 on the CBOE) which means it will be easier for large players and institutions to scale and manage larger positions and more complex strategies which are not necessarily dependent on the direction of the market. This translates into more noise and consolidation rather than immediate sell off or rally. If I am going to take a swing trade long position in this market, I need to at least see price retest the 14450 area and then the rest of my position evaluation can proceed from there. As unpopular as it is right now, I will not buy anywhere near highs especially in runaway markets because I prefer to mitigate risk, not gamble. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
16
LTCUSD: The Retrace Before 500?LTCUSD update: The 350 all time high then followed by a pin bar leads to corrective price action and a potential support. In this report I am going to highlight the risk/reward and what to look for upon a retest of the high. I have always considered LTC more of a buy and hold type of market rather than a trading market because the price action was not as eventful as the BTC and ETH markets. Now that it has broken out to dramatic new highs, this market might offer some short term trading opportunities as well. On that note, the current price action is showing a minor correction. It went from 350 to 244 in a matter of hours (in the coin world, that is minor). 244 is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the 73 low. In strong markets, this retrace level often holds and is a good place to look for reversal patterns. A bullish pin bar is currently in place on this time frame which is a sign of buying. Any retest of the 244 level followed by a double bottom or failed low would generate a buy signal based on my trading plan. By the time the appropriate candles are in place, you will most likely not get the 244 price, but high 240s to low 250s is not unreasonable. As far as risk goes, it is clearly defined by 244. That means if you are looking to take a short term swing trade, a stop can be placed somewhere slightly below this level, which will then shed light on the attractiveness of the trade. Based on the current structure, a retest of the 300 level is reasonable and when compared to the risk, (assuming an average price of 250) you are looking at around 5:1 which is more than acceptable. Keep in mind, attractive risk/reward is not a trigger to enter a trade, but instead a guide to help filter if a reversal pattern is worth entering or not. Why 300 and not 350? Why not higher? Reasonable risk and reward is based on market proportions, not feelings, hype or fundamentals. There is a .618 resistance zone at the 309 to 326 area, plus 300 may act as a psychological resistance. Remember, this is the short term trading mentality and NOT to be confused with investing (It seems most new investors and traders have no idea how to differentiate between the two mindsets). A retest of the 300 level is an area to take some short term profits IF that is the type of trade you have entered. In terms of the bigger picture, there is a 1.0 extension at the 507 level which is projected from the 244 low and is not that far fetched given the blind euphoria in these markets. This target would serve as a level to lock in some profits for longer term trades (long term in this market is a couple of months). There is no guarantee that this level will be reached and is based on the proportion of current price action. Some unexpected news can come out and completely change everything (long term TA cannot account for that). What if this market keeps going lower? A break of 244 can possibly lead price back to the 178 to 133 area which is the .618 support zone of the current bullish structure. Anything goes in these markets. IF price revisits this area, any broader reversals would serve as good buying signals, especially for longer term positions. In summary, buying pull backs in strong markets is an effective behavior when it comes to timing markets. When and how to enter exactly is more of a function of your trading plan, outlook and risk tolerance. If you are more long term, then less precision and more pain tolerance is in line with that mindset, while the short term trader needs to adhere to specific criteria like levels, reversal patterns and exiting at proportionate targets. What many new traders do not realize is that it is possible to employ multiple time horizon strategies simultaneously, it is just a matter of keeping them separate, almost like trading different accounts, or different instruments. Is it easy? No, but this is why having a well defined trading plan is so important. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
ETHUSD: Roadmap To 814 Target?ETHUSD update: With 760 being the all time high and no real weakness in sight, it is important to gain a sense of how far can these markets go on the short term in order to decide whether to invest now or not. In this report I will refer to Elliott Wave in order to evaluate the potential reward / risk over the short term (next few weeks/month). People often ask, "Why do you not always use Elliott Wave in your analysis?". Just because it is not on a chart, does not mean I am not using it. As a price action trader, I am always aware of the wave counts and will only write about them when they are relevant and clear. Otherwise they will confuse people. In this chart, I am observing the wave counts on a weekly time frame. Why weekly? Because it provides a much clearer perspective of how much further this market can go before the next correction.(Note to new investors: markets do eventually correct). As far as the current count, it appears this market is in a Wave 5 of a larger Wave 3. According to the basic rules of an impulse wave, wave 3 can never be the shortest wave. Often, wave 3's are large, move fast and are very euphoric. We are seeing this across many of these coins at the moment. Often any news and events that are in line with this trend will drive the price faster, while counter trend or negative news will has less of an effect. The bias is clearly bullish. Based on the 1.618 extension measured from the Wave 2 low (140), the next proportionate target is the 814 area which provides some insight as far as where this market may find some significant resistance and begin a potential Wave 4 correction (I know no one wants to hear about corrections). The popular view is "Hey 1K around the corner!", which is possible, but these 1.618 extensions combined with the fact that this market is in a 5th wave, highlights the riskiness of taking new long positions at these levels. (Unless you don't mind a couple of hundred points of pain). IF the market finds resistance in this area and a Wave 4 unfolds, a relevant level to evaluate for support (and possible buying opportunities) the the 518 to mid 400s area. Why? 518 is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the broader Wave 2 low. This is where buying for the longer term would offer more attractive reward/risk compared to where price is now. In summary, Elliott Wave serves as a road map, and is NOT an exact forecasting tool. There is NO precision in these markets, especially right now. Buying and holding works great when markets don't correct and go up 30%+ per day which is not realistic and will be temporary. For those who are in from lower levels, and plan to hold as an investment, it never hurts to lock some profit in and hold on to some no matter what happens. There seems to be this blind greed where people consider not locking in profit at the "top" a loss. Selling tops and buying bottoms are lottery tickets and if you are coming out of this market with more money than you entered with, that is a win which will not be appreciated until reality sets in. When markets are extreme as these are right now, it always helps to get perspective from a very large time frame like a weekly. Applying waves counts in this context does not offer exact buy/sell signals but instead provides a framework and levels that illustrate where the reward/risk is more attractive for entering longer term positions. No matter how you slice it, these markets are risky. The greater the risk the greater potential reward, you just have to be aware of the broader probabilities. Buying highs works at the moment, but in the long run is an ineffective behavior. The bad habits that are being created in this environment will be opportunities for the skilled traders when the correction comes. This cycle repeats itself over and over and has since the beginning of financial markets, and is the reason why TA has merit for those who know how to use it properly. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
BTCUSD Vs. XBT: Levels For Oncoming CBOE Futures Volume.BTCUSD update: Price is not far from the all time high of 17171 just hours away from the start of today's business on the CBOE. This is when more volume will enter the market and have a more significant effect in either direction. In this report I am going to highlight what to watch for at the two upcoming resistance levels. 17171 and the price range up to 18300 are the areas to watch closely which this market is likely to test. Since the futures have opened, price momentum has been bullish and has taken out the minor resistance zone between the 15500 to 16230 area (.618 of bearish structure). What many do not realize is that volume in the futures market outside regular business hours is often much lower and if these contracts are going to have any effect, it is more likely to happen during the day session. The reason why these levels are important to watch is because today, many more shorts will be able to enter this market compared to the absence of shorting ability by most U.S. participants. A bearish reversal candle off of the 17171 high will be viewed as a potential double top. While the reversal zone just above is where price can spike to a new high, attract all the breakout traders and then fall apart. This often begins with a pin bar, or outside bar which is likely to happen below 18300. If price breaks above this upper boundary, then 20k becomes a much more likely target. If there is a correction, the 14250 to 13575 zone (.618 of current bullish swing), and the 12700 to 11550 area would be the range to look for bullish reversal patterns. Again these levels offer the most attractive reward/risk for smaller time frame trading and not investing. In other words, if you are looking to buy, these are the higher probability levels to evaluate IF price manages to retest them. At the moment, this market is not showing any signs of significant weakness or reversal patterns. It is still too early, but that may change during the day session of the futures. There is no way to predict what will happen. The best you can do is isolate a couple of possible scenarios and see if the market cooperates, then measure risk from there. This is the short term trading mentality and what you will be competing with when the futures traders really enter this market. In summary, I expect the CBOE futures along with the CME next week to bring balance to a market that is moving 2500 points a day. People entering this market now are entering with extremely unrealistic expectations and are only looking at, "Wow, 1000 to 17000 in less than a year!". In the long run, I do believe it will go higher, I have been long term bullish the entire time. It is the short term that people do not understand and will require more skill to navigate. I do not think the futures will cause a major sell off, instead I think they will enforce reality which means more realistic ranges and movements. Retracing 5k in two days and recovering it is amazing, (unless you bought at 17000) but it is not reality. Whether you are investing or looking to trade shorter time horizons, knowing what is more likely to happen based on price action will improve your timing but there is an undercurrent of ignorance that the professional futures traders are going to capitalize on. And that is the lack of risk management which is typical of new money entering hot markets near highs. The hype will attract this money and the professionals will take it out and this is what the futures will facilitate. Just something to think about. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31