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SPY-Decision Point , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 18.05.2020 This week the stock market returned to positive territory with big technology companies leading the heard. Stocks decline las week after Fed J.Powell earns about recovery, US-China tensions increase The stock was down this week with the S&P 500 down -2.3% to 2863.7. This week continued the previous few weeks high volatility environment that is probably here to stay for the next few weeks as the market is in a crucial decision point, On one hand, there are the bulls pulling up with FOMO, positive hope for a vaccine against the coronavirus, optimism about the short duration of the current recession and economy reopening soon, on the other hand, there are the bears pulling down with economic conditions fear, uncertainty as to how and when will the economy recover and what is the damage to small-medium size businesses, for us 2850 for the S&P500 is that decision point, moving above it means the bulls have won and below means, the bears are in control. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We have chartered a number of bands for the S&P500, these bands are used for risk control and decision making. 285-290 - this is the bullish zone, as long as the S&P500 stays in or above this zone, the sentiment is bullish. 280-265 - This is the “Undecided” zone where the market had not decided yet as to where the stock market is going. Below 265 - is the bearish zone with the bears in control pulling prices downwards. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Decision Time , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The S&P 500 lost 1.9% last week ending the week at 283, below the next resistance of 285, as more and more countries around the world reach deep into the government pockets to get the much-needed funds to get the world economy going once again. The US, Europe and other global markets declined last week as a meltdown in oil prices increased volatility in the markets. The May WTI oil futures contract price dropped to a negative price before expiring, and the June contract price dropped too, this is the first time in history that oil prices are negative. The very bad move in oil prices is a result of many factors, such as selling pressure due to technicals prior to contract expiration, plus limited storage space due to a drop in demand for oil. Stock prices improved later in the week with the government enacting another coronavirus relief package that includes additional funds for small businesses. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast The next few weeks are decision time for the market and cherry-picking for specific stocks that may be the early ones to come out of this current crisis. The market has been range trading for some time as traders as contemplating which way to go, up or down, range trading usually means very good time period to cherry-pick specific, high-quality stocks at favorable prices which is what we did last week and will continue to do this week as well. Our models support the more optimistic side of the market with a 310 target for SPY in the near future that will be followed by a correction and then another leg up. Are we in a stock market bubble? Our models support a slow recovery in the market, with a sharp disconnect from main street and the economy and that's for a number of reasons : 1. Massive stimulus packages 2. Massive rate cuts, together with 1 that means a lot of cheap money that has to go somewhere 3. Many bargains at current price levels 4. Deep optimism within the trading community that usually translates into an uptrend That's our forecast and we follow that in our portfolio BUT we also have quite large hedge positions and tight risk policies. Is it time to buy Oil-related stocks? An experienced trader should know to filter the noise and look at the market reality from a neutral, non-judgmental stand, The current meltdown in oil creates many good opportunities for companies relying on oil-related products to lower costs and provide high-quality products at cheaper prices. Oil is not only the source for transportation but also serves as the basis for other related products, such as: soap, perfume, and other cosmetics fertilizer, insecticides for the agriculture industry tar, asphalt for the infrastructure domain and last but not least Plastic, which is the base for many products from kitchenware, furniture all the way to packaging. So when doing research for opportunities these sectors should also hold some of them. AlphaOverBeta uptrending watchlist Using AOB Dashboard to spot trending opportunities in the market. APA MUR FLR XOP SIRI EBAY Check out the list on our Dashboard Out top-ranking stock for the week is Apache Corporation (APA) Apache Corporation is an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company has operations in onshore assets located in the Permian and Midcontinent/Gulf Coast onshore regions; and offshore assets situated in the Gulf of Mexico region. AlphOverBeta Sectors rank As we stated last week, the biopharmaceutical and healthcare sectors are picking up momentum, we estimate that this trend is a long term one and is here to stay, the next 6-9 months are going to be all about protecting ourselves from the current and future pandemic, so these sectors make complete sense to investors, Our long equity portfolio is long on the sector and specific picks in that sector Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
2
SPY-Closing on resistance , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 19.04.2020 The S&P 500 gained 2.7% last week ending the week at 287.5, very close to the next resistance of 290, as more and more countries around the world reach deep into the government pockets to get the much-needed funds to get the world economy going once again. The next quarter is going to be much about the companies earning report and the economic contraction in many countries, the news from China is -6.5% contraction, for the first time in at least two decades. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast The next week is going to be a tougher fight between the bottom callers and the more optimistic voices in the market, as two powers are pulling the market to both sides the suffering economy on one hand and the stimulus packages that support it on the other, the US government reacted fast and with big money and at least in the short term its working and the market is moving forward. Our models support the more optimistic side of the fight with a 290 target for SPY in the near future that will be followed by a correction and then another leg up. Are we in a stock market bubble? Stock market bubbles are created when assets are overpriced, way and beyond their fair value. Examining equity prices under the economic conditions we might say that last week's move inflated prices way over their fair value. Current indices are now less than 20% down from the all-time high, that's out of bearish territory that was declared only two weeks ago. So which prices are fair value? The - 35% bottom made three weeks ago? Or the current prices which are only 20% off the all-time high? We are in a fed created bubble.. again. As the fed was trying to stabilize the economy they threw money at the problem which ultimately finds its way to equities and bond markets. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Short term 1-2-3 pattern , AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders, The stock market continued to rally last week as trader risk appetite continued to increase with the Fed announcing more stimulus action. The S&P 500 gained 12.1% in one of the best weeks since the 90's The coronavirus situation is starting to be a little bit more optimistic as some countries like Italy and Spain start to see their curve flattening and the number of cases in the US is moving to the lower side of the estimates. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast Next week is going to be a key week for the market as the rally hit a certain high that will test the buyers, in case the S&P500 holds over the 2600 level, this will be a significant strong bullish trigger, on the other side, the 2450 is used as the levels to watch for another leg to the downside. When reading and listening to all the trading experts, you hear the same advice from all - stay out, for now, the risk is not over, pick the higher-quality stocks and the market didn't bottom yet. A simple question - if that's so, how is it that the market is up? Who's buying? Can't be retail traders, they are out, listening to the "gurus", so... It's the gurus buying! That's the only conclusion here, they tell nice stories, but in the meantime, they buy the dip. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
6
SPY range trading, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders, SPY had completed a 1-2-3 pattern and is consolidating its price pattern, this is very good technical news as price returned to standard behavior after moving wildly and unpredictably. The current trade range is 245-265 in the short term, any move above the 265( which our model begins to increase the probability for! ) will provide a bullish short term indication, moving below the 240-245 will provide the trigger that the market is headed to re-test the 220 lows. We are currently short term bullish on SPY with PUT options hedging our position, crossing the 265-270 resistance will provide a major trigger to go long equities. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
2
SPY 1-2-3 Pattern, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders, SPY Had just completed a 1-2-3 pattern confirming the 265 as the short term top. Our technical analysis models predict a downtern next week re-testing the 220 lows, There is mote than 50% that the low of the 220 will break marking the 200 as the next level to watch. breaking the 220 level will trigger a strong short trigger for SPY and other weak stocks on AlphaOverBeta short watchlist available for our subscribers Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Short term bounce , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, SPY dropped 35% since its all-time high in the last 5 weeks, At the moment traders are looking for direction and any estimate is just that .. an estimate. Our models set two lines for SPY to cross and trigger a meaningful alert. 245 to the upside, crossing this line to the upside should increase risk in the long portfolio, the second line for long risk increase is 270 220 to the downside, this is the lowest the market has been in this downturn, crossing this line to the downside significantly increases the risk in the short portfolio (or cash) Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
Weekly Outlook, AlphaOverBetaHello traders, As we are approaching the end of this volatile week of trading, I would like to conclude it with these insights : 1. The fed proved once again they contribute to the short term volatility instead of doing their job and keep stability in the markets, firing their entire arsenal at a problem that is has a small financial base (and a big psychological base) is definitely an overshoot 2. Traders are pricing the slowdown that we are facing (and will continue to) following the government reaction to the coronavirus, this will stay at least unto Q2 3. Oil prices are too low, selling it at these ridiculous prices will hurt oil-related companies bottom line, cheap is not always good 4. The market will recover, participate and don't anticipate. Trade smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Short term Support/Resistance , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The market had its first trade halt since 2008, and volatility is extremely high (more than 4 times the average), Trading the market is challenging. Our models have set two checkpoints for the market to make a short term decision: 270 - is the short term support for the S&P500, breaking that support would generate another leg to the downside 290 - is the short term resistance, breaking it to the upside would trigger a short term rally to the upside Remember to trade with rules, not emotions, the market will rebound, make sure you are in the game to benefit from it. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Where from here?, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalisysHello traders, The market is in complete chaos in the last two trading weeks, the volatility is high with daily swings that we haven't seen in years, the coronavirus is driving fear up the wall and the market is in no-decision point, these are challenging times to trade equities and so in order to guide our trade we put two lines in the sand to assist making the decision: 1. 2800-2850 to the downside - this critical area is the area that has historically used for supporting the market prices, breaching it will trigger a major downtrend 2. 3000-3020 to the upside - this is the resistance area in the last two weeks, breaking this to the upside, with heavy volume, and risk appetite is back Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
GLD-Double top formation , AlphaOverBeta Trade AlertHello traders, GLD was spotted on the AlphaOverBeta radar as forming ( Asymmetric) double top bearish formation, this usually means that the next move is to the downside, The formation is incomplete and will be completed once the price pattern goes below the 145.5$ level , watch out for this formation since its a high probability trigger, once formed, which may trigger a bearish move in GLD for the short term, Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:GLDShort
by Alon_AOB
SPY-How important was yesterday ? , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Yesterday (Feb 4, 2020) was a technically significant day for the S&P500 - a breakout day after some time in which the market showed signs of building a downtrend (which is a part of a natural market price action). You may see in the chart that since the definition of a downtrend is lower lows and lower highs we have been confirming that definition until yesterday, then a breakout candle broke through and invalidated the downtrend, at least for the short term. The significance of yesterday is in the fact that price action managed to break the downtrend to the upside, after touching the 320 level as indicated by Fibonacci and our forecast models (see our previous forecast), We usually provide clear forecast for the rest of the week, only in this case our models are sitting quietly on this decision point, we may see the return of the downtrend but in case the market forms an uptrend in the coming days, we will declare the correction as over and increase our risk, as our modeled strategies suggest. Trade smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
1
SPY Are we done correcting ? , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Looking at the markets in this and last week, Many traders ask themselves two basic questions this week: Is the market in correction mode? Is the market on a bearish cycle? According to our models the market is in correction mode, so answer your question #1 is: Yes We are definitely not in a bearish cycle, the market had a correction that is not anywhere near bearish talk, so the answer to question #2 is NO! According to our forecasting models, we still have some more downside risk all the way to 315 , in case the market reaches 315, equity valuations will be very attractive to many buyers and we forecast that a new up wave will start again. Trade Safely Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
Is it time to SHORT BA ? AlphaOverBeta Trade AlertsHello traders, BA just touched a very significant support level of 310$, the company has been in trouble ever since launching the 737 MAX , the crashes and the way the company handles the issues, the company grounded it's 737 MAX fleet and is losing millions daily because of the failing design of the aircraft. With all its problems , current and in the future, the price crashed (pan intended..) to 310$ as the company is about to announce its earnings on Jan 31. If the earnings are going to be lower than expectations, we estimate a meltdown in price all the way to the 200$ levels, Our handling for BA is a Sell Stop @ 300$ with Stop Loss at 320$ Trade safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
NYSE:BAShort
by Alon_AOB
1
Is the SPY about to correct ? AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The market continues to fly high without looking back , this is supported by a number of important factors such as the positive messages from the white house and china regarding phase I agreement and the future of the trade war, strong economic numbers , and some technical factors as well. as we can see in the chart, the RSI has reached a peak above 70, this means that we are again slightly overbought and the market is about to face some range trading soon, this is a healthy move by the market as it prepares for a charge at our next milestone which is 345 This is the perfect market to cherry-pick investment assets as this market hides the real gems that may fly as the market stays in consolidation mode. Trade Safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
GS Goldman Sachs: $245 artificially undervalued towards $1,000new markets new customers when the rich becomes richer and the rise of middle class require more banking needs Goldman shall dominate this space in the next decade. That liquidity from the FED and make America great again shall benefit strong hands Price action wise it's a Parabolic to fresh highs -- LOADED for the long run warren may just mark this up to $300 to make a statement REMINDER: this listed most issues and as underwriter packager it knows how to surprise the PUBLIC
NYSE:GS
by senyor