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Is the SPY about to correct ? AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The market continues to fly high without looking back , this is supported by a number of important factors such as the positive messages from the white house and china regarding phase I agreement and the future of the trade war, strong economic numbers , and some technical factors as well. as we can see in the chart, the RSI has reached a peak above 70, this means that we are again slightly overbought and the market is about to face some range trading soon, this is a healthy move by the market as it prepares for a charge at our next milestone which is 345 This is the perfect market to cherry-pick investment assets as this market hides the real gems that may fly as the market stays in consolidation mode. Trade Safely, Alon (AlphaOverBeta)
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
GS Goldman Sachs: $245 artificially undervalued towards $1,000new markets new customers when the rich becomes richer and the rise of middle class require more banking needs Goldman shall dominate this space in the next decade. That liquidity from the FED and make America great again shall benefit strong hands Price action wise it's a Parabolic to fresh highs -- LOADED for the long run warren may just mark this up to $300 to make a statement REMINDER: this listed most issues and as underwriter packager it knows how to surprise the PUBLIC
NYSE:GS
by senyor
BITCOIN PRICE TARGET! $20,000 IN WEEKS!Redid my previous chart for better visuals. Im not a "moonboy" but price action does seem to be following this since capitulation. We're looking at target next of about 20k. 3 waves make a pattern so keep an eye on the bottom support of the current range between 13666 and 11200. 11k should hold and then the 21ema holds. Look at how the 21ema is following my regression line? Look at the previous ones. Now remember, those green regression lines were already plotted before the yellow 21ema then follows. At 20k, we'll see if it forms another wave for higher or what it does. Thanks for reading
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AfricanSatoshi
2
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - BTC at $300,000!?Hello everyone! Hope you guys are having an awesome weekend. I wanted to throw this out there and let folks know where the $300k price point comes from when you hear people discuss it. The total market cap for physical gold is just north of $6 Trillion. Yes, that is a lot. If you take Bitcoin and its 21 million supply cap with a similar market cap...you arrive at $300,000. Additionally, when taking fib levels into consideration using log scaling, you arrive at a similar number. Seriously, it's nuts. Last but not least, we can draw attention to our triple bottom. We have done it and can expect a reversal. Pair this with some fundamentals of Bakkt in November (they need to actually buy physical BTC before they open) and a potential ETF in Q1 2019, we can be on the way to some serious gains. I'll let the $300,000 figure sit with you for this Sunday...enjoy it. Take it easy, DA BULL (got my horns back)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
3
Massive Alpha To Be Found In This Chicken Spread!So this spread revolves around the simple, brutal strength that we are seeing in the economy right now. People are spending huge amounts of money on eating out right now, and given the ISM and UMCSI numbers I don't see that slowing down any time soon. Here, we pit a strong, cyclical restaurant chain specializing in chicken against a weak, defensive, consumer staples that is losing market share and in the worst spot from a macro perspective. This one's an easy winner. I was in this morning with a 3-1 R:R 40% target. Don't forget to hedge out those betas! Cheers, Andrew
NASDAQ:WINGLong
by wolneyaa
ISM Play With Massive Alpha And Lots More To ComeSo this play is a complex spread that pits a strong machinery company and a strong retail / cons. disc. company against two weak chemical makers. While the play may initially not make much sense, the alpha here is generated from the comments that companies in these sectors made in the last ISM and NMI reports. Expected weakness in chemicals as input prices increase, and expected strength in consumer spending and capital investment by manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms alike. This spread is pitted perfectly for the current environment and is efficient as I could make it. I was in this morning @ 11.97, and plan to hold for an expected 30% upside from here. My stop on this one remains around 11. I may write some OTM calls on my longs here to even further increase the value here. DO NOT FORGET TO BETA-HEDGE. Cheers, Andrew
NASDAQ:POOLLong
by wolneyaa
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - A Nasdaq HedgeGood day everyone! DA Bull here with a quick big picture discussion. The Nasdaq 100 is known as the "tech-index". It is composed of over 3,000 companies and took a major hit during the dot com bubble. However, we are finding the NASDAQ at historic levels once again. When a price hits historic levels that does not mean sell. You will never hear DA Bull say sell for that reason. In this case, I would strongly encourage folks to consider the risk/reward. World debt is at $164 Trillion. U.S. Corporate debt is over $6.4 Trillion. Rates are rising. Inflation is rising. Without getting into how historical these levels of debt are, the fact remains many debts will be refinanced soon. With those 4 facts above, we can expect profit margins of major companies to lessen over the coming years. The companies with the most debts accrued during these fiscally friendly times - with the debts still on the books - will feel the rate hikes the most. Keep in mind I'm not here to talk about systemic risk or preach to you that the sky is falling...I'm here just to discuss risk/reward. Simply based on this small viewpoint and comparing the similarities of the NASDAQ 100 right now to the NASDAQ 20 years ago, you will see a very similar patter. It would appear, based on history (which doesn't repeat itself, but tends to rhyme), that we are very close to the peak. Since 2010 the NASDAQ has given 4x returns. That is pretty spectacular. How much more can an investor expect? I'm not sure, but another 25%+ is probably off the table, unless the peak has a very VERY tall wick. In saying all this, technology stocks have proven to be great investments. The largest tech companies have almost single handedly moved the S&P the last several months. For those tech lovers, have a look at Bitcoin. Blockchain and cryptocurrency is the future. Bitcoin has been nearing a low and can prove to be a great hedge over the next few years as many go up in arms with the amount of debt in the system. - DA Bear -
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
1
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - BTC "Double Three" ScenarioHello everyone and happy weekend! DA Bull here giving you guys a quick scenario to think of as we start zoning in on $6k once again. Most folks following TA here on Tradingview realize that $6k is a major support. Most folks have gone super bearish since that ascending wedge drop from $7400. If you have been following our "Time for Tea" write-up, the drop would not have surprised you one bit. (You can check it out below where we are still publishing updates.) Here at Digital Alpha we have been long-term bullish (1 year), mid-term bearish (1 month), and short -term bearish/sideways (1 week). We might be flipping the mid-term and short-term soon, but as of now we are waiting to see the next move - likely a test near the $6k region. If we go up from here there's a good chance for $6600 (even $6900!), which will still keep our models all valid. The "Double Three" is the chart today. This is an WXY elliot wave pattern that ends with an ABCDE triangle for the "Y" portion. During the last run BTC had, this was the pattern that existed. However, we then had some sideways movement after the ABCDE breakout. The sideways movement can lead to the "X" and "Z" we have question marks next to. We leave that possibility wide open. If we see a WXYXZ then that would be a "Triple Three". Without getting too technical and creating confusion, the take home message is this might be a bottom coming up. The price movement after the bottom does not lead to a paraBULLic run, so no need to go crazy yet. Good entries is the name of the game here. I say good entries because risk/reward is something to consider. If $6k is the bottom and you start entering near $6k, then you have obviously gotten a great entry for the next run - AND this is something we can safely expect. If $5.5k occurs (we have been looking at $5.5k near Sept 20-24th for several months now - again read "Time for Tea") then your $6k entry still looks great. Sure you can try to catch the wick, but you might miss the quick rebound. Even more bearish scenarios exist of $4.5k and lower, but in the next run will you kick yourself for entering at $6k? No. You might kick yourself for entering above $10k though! Keep in mind that going to $4.5k and lower during a fast selloff will most likely last just a few hours. The major wick that pierced $6k in early 2018 only lasted a few hours. Were you asleep? Were you out to dinner? Were you at work in a meeting? Did you have access to your trading platform!? Try to realize that the chance for you to make a trade during that time frame was small. Now, what happened afterwards? Very fast price rise. Moral to the story, consider what an entry at these levels will mean several months from now. Don't try to be the guy that catches the knife at the perfect moment. Additionally, don't short the bottom! The risk/reward for shorting at $6k is not in your favor. The risk/reward for shorting at $7k and higher was in your favor. The risk/reward for placing a long near $6k AFTER we dip below IS in your favor. Keep this in mind over the next week or two. (Note, I'm saying IF you place a long around $6k to wait until after a fast selloff/dip.) Now, go have a beer, sweet tea, shandy, cigar, tequila, fosters, or whatever your summertime preference is because summer is ending, enjoy what is left of it! - DA Bear (wondering if my horns are starting to emerge...) p.s. - A 5% failure on the ABCDE would still make the triangle valid and place us near $5.5k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - Cheap LTC for saleHello everyone and happy weekend! DA Bull here giving you an update on one of the best investment coins, LTC. Most of us know Litecoin Foundation has just received an offer for 9.9% ownership of W.E.G. bank in Germany (most don't know the option exists to acquire another 80% for 90% ownership! link here ). We can thank Charlie for the foundation having enough $$ to pull off a move like that. In addition to the bank news, Litecoin is constantly making headlines on companies adopting litecoin: Coinbase's shift Visa card, Wirex, TenX, and alza.ca were just some tidbits over the last month. Litecoin is a solid add to any portfolio, but acquiring at the lowest price will obviously lead to greater profits. This chart shows the potential drop LTC might have if BTC continues in this direction. The price point shown here is $58. Remember when LTC was $35 and that was big news? Who knew we would be close to 100% retracement from there. Keep enjoying your weekend! DA BULL
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA HODL, AUGUR - EARN SOME REPUTATIONWhat is up everyone! I am here with a pick that has great utility. When we at Digital Alpha look for solid tokens to hodl, we think of two things. 1) Will the product benefit from being a security? OR 2) Will this application be adopted? Notice I did not say, is this the best project of its kind? What matters at this time in the crypto world is how much use will a platform see or how much volume can this security generate. When thinking of Augur, many can see its use very quickly. Augur is a predictions platform and anybody can set up their own "project". However, when I see something like this, I think of the recent success of Draft Kings. Draft Kings uses a subset of analytics and users draft a team to see if they picked the best players for that weekend, meaning it boils down to a predictive market. This type of application built using the Augur platform will be a huge hit...and this is just one example. Others use natural disasters, market crashes, or political elections to name a few. With Augur, the fundamentals are there, which is the first step in deciding if a token is worth accumulating a position in. (I'm writing this piece, part of the HODL posts, because many lose sight of investing when checking out cryptocurrencies. Many tend to go where the action is - EOS for a recent example. EOS was great for making quick money, but you can also get burned quick. For those that look to invest, follow the HODL series, not the quick picks.) Second step is entry. Looking at the chart here we see Augur is consolidating. In fact, Augur's chart is less volatile than most. We don't see the typical bubble chart - pump, distribution, blowoff, markdown, accumulation. In fact, Augur is following eth/btc pretty closely (on btc and usd pairings). The magenta box is drawn to help show the general trend of price in that area. Price tends to oscillate here and use this area as support or resistance. When price enters from above we tend to test this area as support and steam roll through. Same goes when price approaches this area from below. We are currently dropping in from above, so history would say, we are headed down. The TINY volume spike seen on the couple days leading up to its platform release is a bearish sign for me as well. We typically expect very high volume before such an anticipated event. General market sentiment is also bearish. So why mention Augur in the first place?? Price has dipped down to the 0.236 fib level of the previous high/low each time, which places us around 0.0043 this time around. Many believe BTC's sentiment might change any week and I'm not sure I completely agree yet. Once we get closer to August 10th's (which will most likely be crickets) decision for an ETF approval (or eventual postponement of a SEC comment), we will see if the bull run is upon us. Regardless, the chart reads price might track up after the tiny dip here. MACD supports this since we are starting to form a horizontal top triangle pattern. An upward breakout on MACD would be bullish here. Keep REP on your sights and watch for movement around 0.0043. Things to look out for are volume and MACD movement upwards. Regardless, placing some buys just below 0.0043 would be wise for a long-term move. Hope you enjoyed this first installment in the HODL series. Other HODL like calls that I've discussed outside of the top 5 previously are NEO, ICX, IOTA, XLM. Have a great week! DA BULL
RLong
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE NEO - NEO can't stop the bulletsWhat up everyone! Happy Saturday, hope this finds you well. This one is pretty quick here. We have the candles on the 1 day timeframe. NEO keeps entering this pivotal area shown in the magenta box. You can see price changed direction at this point 8 separate times. We are about to hit that area now. Note when price entered this area quickly from above, price plowed through into the lower magenta box. This will be a move to look out for in the next few days. As a trader, if price bounces at the 0.0044 area then I'd be considering an entry. Price might very well reverse at 0.0055 (top magenta box). Either way, wait for the reversal to be confirmed before making a move, else you are just getting stabbed trying to catch a falling knife...or for the corny punch lines, getting shot instead of matrix like dodging of bullets. DA BULL
Short
by DIGITAL-ALPHA
DIGITAL ALPHA HODL, FUNFAIR - Time to place your betIf you don't know FunFair: coindigo.io Man I love this stuff...hope you enjoy! Fundamentals: How popular is online mobile app gaming? Zynga's Poker had 6.5m daily users in 2012. This was the latest stat I could find. It is said this app still has millions of users daily...and that was in 2012. More people have access to smartphones than ever before. When discussing a utlity token's success, the economy surrounding the token is paramount. For FunFair, we need to figure out how much of an economy might occurr around the token. Therefore, knowing how many people might be using the token would seem like a good place to start. Also, seeing the revenue generated from a top app would be helpful as well. From Zynga's 2011 Annual Report, revenue from Zynga Poker in 2011 was $159.8m. Translate that into token usage and we are already putting a $0.03 price tag on each FunFair token ($160m / FunFair circulating supply 5B). Yes, this is assuming Zynga keeps all $160m in FunFair and does not sell the token, but keep in mind this is just revenue. This is not taking into account the amount of tokens being held by a user, by a speculator, or by the company itself. Now, if each user has $10 in their account and never loses any money (a user on a top 50 game between 345-54 years old during a 6 month period spends $87.68-145.28 for in app purchases - stat from NPD Group)...and we ONLY look at Zynga's Texas Hold'em with 10 million monthly users, that is $100m in the FunFair token economy. Many will say to me that whales and speculators will drive the price down, but I will say, so what. When you start to have users buying the token daily, cashing in daily, the 'bottom' will be much higher in price than a whale can drive it down. Now, we are all new to setting a value to a crypto token, and I'm beginning to consider modeling utility tokens for my subscribers, so I'm open to any suggestions out there...and I figure FunFair is a good token to begin figuring this out for. So let's attempt to figure the potential FunFair has within the $45.86B (2017) online gambling market. Let us get CRAZY conservative and say FunFair is a flop with 5million users across ALL FunFair's games (keep in mind Zynga can use FunFair's technology), each user has an average of $10 in their account, the company holds 25% of their revenue (say revenue was $10m across ALL games) in the token, and speculators are not involved at all. This means the FunFair economy is worth a whopping $52.5m, 50% of the current market cap of FunFair ($117m as of this writing). Not bad. CRAZY conservative you would be looking at $0.01 per token (current price is just over $0.02). If we get optimistic and boost those numbers to 100million users (candy crush topped out at 350m monthly for perspective), each user has $50 in their account, and revenue is boosted to $250m (still 25% in the token)...we now are looking at an economy of over $5B...$1 a token. That might be the far end of the spectrum. However, not all users will be holding $150 simultaneously, FunFair might never be part of a top 50 app, and companies using FunFair might not ever keep their tokens in FunFair. So this is difficult to place guesstimates on. Technicals: Market sentiment is bearish so we can expect alt prices to drop. When FunFair has historically broken the uptrend (white support line) that forms during a small bump up in volume, we fall to the next support. If this pattern hold we will be looking at price between 0.0000034 and 0.0000030. Even if price drops more from here - very likely since volume is still dropping, this would still be a good entry. On the flip side MACD and Stoch RSI are getting ready for an uptrend - historically price has risen during these movements. Again, this is a HODL call, not a quick pick. Have a great weekend, thank you for reading! Please comment on how I can improve my analysis on a utility token like FunFair. DA BULL
FLong
by DIGITAL-ALPHA