ALPHABET INC. (GOOGL) Crash Incoming (~20% Drop On Its Way)ALPHABET INC., Google's parent company, is no exception to what is coming to conventional markets. There are many very strong signals pointing towards a crash... and this crash is already on its way.
GOOGL has already dropped by over 18% since hitting a All Time High on the July 2018... More red is on its way.
Let's take a look at the signals for learning and entertainment purposes:
Let's start with the MACD. On the left hand side, you can see a red dotted line with an "X" in the middle... This is back in 2008. When the MACD crossed below 0, the price crashed really hard. When you look at the right hand side of the indicator, you can notice that the same event is taking place now. This is a strong bearish signal.
If you have been reading my analysis you should be pretty familiar now with the signal called "divergence"... This is going on here as well on both MACD and RSI (Bearish Divergence).
GOOGL broke and closed below EMA50. It was quickly rejected when it tried to move back up. If GOOGL breaks and closes below EMA100 (blue line), we can aim straight for our "MAIN TARGET" on chart.
RSI & MACD are bearish.
These signals are very strong and clear... ALPHABET INC. (GOOGL) will continue to crash. Others are also crashing...
Apple:
Bank Of America:
S&P500:
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Alphabet
Google Long 2nd analysisAfter the analysis made yesterday on the daily chart the price of google opened above it's previous resistance, this means the 1st trade is good to go, however as a good analyst one must always assume his position is wrong and look for further analysis to try and take cover from any unforsean threats. On this analysis I marked the significant support and resitance of the hourly chart and left the ones of the daily visible in order to set target. Looking at the RSI it seems that price should correct within the next couple of hours at least enough for the RSI to go back to not overbought levels and like that recharge for the next bull move. However with a severe overextension on the MACD I highly doubt the 1st trade layed on this analysis is the optimal one, I belive the second one to be a better position in which there is segnificanly less risk and more reward
Google longafter a large drop google seems to be gaining some momentum to the upside as there is no overextension on the rsi and there is also a price and momentum divergence which is considered a bull signal. Id refuse to buy at market price given the risk of a correction wave pulling us out of the market. However breaking above the support and closing above without overextrending the RSI would be a huge protection to the position and would be a clear bull signal
Two Giants on the Same dayGOOGLE and AMAZON
On Wall Street, the USA500 closed 3.1% for the worse, and the tech-laden USA100 with a 4.6% loss. Corporate earnings and guidance have been flagging the nascent signs of a deteriorating business environment and outlook risks. As investors are loosing there faith in stock market, there pressure has moved to today's earnings reports, as two of the industry leaders Amazon and Google parent Alphabet, along with Twitter, will release their earnings reports for the fiscal Quarter ending Sep 2018, after today's closing bell on Wall Street.
Amazon and Google chart
Alphabet(Google)
Alphabet Inc. is a holding company and Google's parent company. The Company's businesses include Google Inc. (which is the largest one) and its Internet products, such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo and X. The Company's segments include Google and Other Bets.
Alphabet's third Quarter earnings for 2018 will be reported after the US Market close today. The consensus recommendation for the company is “strong buy”, corresponding to the majority of the consensus recommendation for the Online Services peer group , as 23 out of 29 Analyst Firms recommending “buy” or “Strong buy” and 2 suggest remaining on hold, while just 4 Analyst firms propose the “Buy” possibility. Hence no Analyst Firms is making a "Sell" or "underperform" recommendation for the company.
According to Zacks Investment Research, the information service is expected to have $10.43 in earnings per share during the third Quarter of 2018, which represents a yearly change of 8.7%, since the reported EPS for the fiscal Quarter ending September 2017 was $9.57. Focus should also turn on revenues number which is projected to hit 22.6% yoy rise, to around $34.04 billion, from the $27.77 billion reported last year.
The Alphabet has faced some serious difficulties the 2nd Quarter, as EU commission accused the company for anticompetitive methods regarding its mobile search engine. The company was fined by 5.1 Billions by the EU, which it manage to handle but it also proceed in an appeal despite the fact that it already took the charge. Despite the pressure during the 2nd quarter, over the next five years, the search giant’s quarterly profits are expected to continue rising. The earnings expected to grow at an average annual rate of 17.37%, with the current year projection for EPS reaching 22.80%.
However, worries regarding another government intervention still hold. This in combination with the sharp decline we have seen in tech stocks the last 3 months, raise concerns whether company's earnings will manage to reach consensus.
At this stage, we have to point out that, the consensus recommendation, similarly to economic data forecasts, has a significant effect on the near term stock price, as it represents a company’s wealth picture. Hence on every earning report, stock price is highly influenced by the comparison between the outcome and the expectations. The market tends to react positively if the outcome comes better or at least in line with forecast, while the price moves lower if the reported earnings miss expectations.
Since September 2017, the company’s earnings missed expectations only once and positively surprised three times. Despite any missed earnings expectations, Google stock price was seen continuously increasing until it reached $1,272.36 high in July 1. The 4-years incline was affected by the increase of sales estimates and the general constant growth of Alphabet Inc.
The fall however, since the earnings report release for the fiscal Quarter ending June 2018 was driven by the miss on earnings, EU fine and global tech sell-off. The sell-off still holds sharply, concerns that earnings momentum is levelling off and that tighter financial conditions, coupled with ongoing trade tensions are hitting the global growth outlook, are prompting investors to rethink lofty equity valuations.
These caused the price to drop by nearly $222.00, to $1051.53.00 level since July peak.
After the sharp drop by 17.16% down, the past 3 months, a decisive turn above $1,160.00 - $1,169.00 area, could turn the attention to the northwards again. This area is significant as it coincides with 50% return of the losses seen since July, with the 50-day SMA and 20-week SMA. Hence if price action manages to sustain a move above this area, is likely to turn towards $1,230.00 (61.8% Fib. level). A move higher could take the asset towards the 100% Fibonacci extension at the $1,330.00.
For now, the sell-off sentiment continues to push stock price lower, just a breath away from the ascending trend-line set since June 2015 low and seems to fully support the asset since then. The trend-line coincides with the 20-month SMA, at $1,036.00 which provides the immediate Support level for the asset. An extension lower could be supported by April's low at $1,007.00
Technically, the medium term outlook for the corporation’s shares remains strongly bearish, with trading activity taking place below all daily MAs and below 20-and 50- week MAs, while momentum indicators comply with this as well. Weekly RSI is at 37 and falling, suggesting that there is further space to the downside. MACD lines are at neutral zone below signal line.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
Amazon:
The consensus recommendation for the company is “Strong buy”, which matches the majority consensus recommendation for the Software peer group (29/33). Amazon is expected to post $3.29 earnings per share and a revenue of $57.0 billion, which reflect to a huge increase of more than 500% on earning and a 30.2% grow on revenue on a year-over-year basis. According to Refinitiv, Amazon is expected by analysts to report a September-quarter non-GAAP net profit of $1.54 billion, compared to just $256 million a year ago.
The company’s earnings beat robustly expectations in the last 4 Quarters and it is expected to do it today as well despite the fall by 12% seen this month. There is nearly nothing to point conversely, as the 3rd Quarter was a good one for Amazon, as it manage to join Apple into the $1 trillion Market value club. During 3rd Quarter, the company will also include once of its largest shopping events, the Prime Day, which is expected to boost the quarterly revenue along with its subscription number.
Despite estimates put the giant’s earnings to post another massive growth report, the fall by 18.37% seen since $2,050.00 push Amazon's stock price further to the downside.
Taking a technical look at Amazon's stock, the drop of daily RSI and the increase of MACD oscillator further to the downside is pointing to a bearish medium-term picture. In the medium-term, the asset crossed below 20-week SMA 3 weeks ago, while it is moving below 20- and 50-day SMA and just $9 above 200-day SMA. The price movement suggest further bias towards bearish. Therefore the extension lower for Amazon price, prior to the earnings announcement or even disappointing earnings outcome, could find immediate Support at the $1,618.00 – $1,628.00 area, which is between the 61.8% Fib. level and the 61.8% fib. extension set since April's bottom.
A break of this area however is crucial as it is a “free fall” from that level downwards. Support could possibly occur around 50-week SMA, at the $1,581.00, and the $1.504.60, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci level of the rally from $1,358.00 low.
Conversely, immediate Resistance to a falling stock on the back of a rebound could occur around the latest up fractal which also the mid of 2-month decline, at $1,860.00. A move above the latter is likely to restore the bullish outlook, with the shares eyeing at record high, at $2,050.00 again.
NASDAQ:AMZN
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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Google triangle, up or downLooks like a very clear triangle, like every triangle it can always break out both ways. When looking at the bigger picture i would say we will break upwards to retest that red resistance zone, which would form a bigger bear flag if the gets rejected there. I will wait for a clear breakout before taking a position on this one.
Be careful shorting before the topIn my chart analysis I indicated my future expectations for market movement.
I know that my perspective is that of the minority, but it's always worth looking at the market from a different perspective, as it may just save you from a massive loss.
As always this is simply for educational purposes and not financial advice*
Good luck trading,
Zerotozeros12
Expect google to reveal positive earnings!October 25th google will post their earnings; I expect that they will be positive (along with many other leading tech sector companies). This will lead to one last rally in the market.
I indicated on the chart where I see Google reaching out to, prior to a massive throw over following shortly after. One second the whole market will be elated by new highs and the next second bear selling will completely devastate any that are holding longs. I will likely close my position slightly ahead of target and begin opening shorts around 1450 and double down as we get closer to target. I know my perspective is that of a minority, but I believe that it is worth considering before fully committing to a bearish mindset.
*As always this is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only.
Let me know what your thoughts are on the market and where you see us heading!
Good luck trading,
Zerotozeros12
Alphabet Inc., Daily Chart Analysis 9/12Stock Analysis, Implications and Outlook
It's a proven fact that investors and traders have been swimming in a long bull stock market. Together with extreme caution to the wind, way too many investors and traders have learned to expect robust double-digit results from their trades.
However, this isn't how the stock market operates. The marketplace advances it also contract as well. With lots of investors and traders discovering that they've been a tad too quick to ignore the painful lessons of the 2008 financial meltdown. Throughout the severe financial and economic crash, there seemed to be only one question which often market players were considering to know: what is the balance sheet really like?
Having said this all, Alphabet unveiled its Q2 2018 earnings on 23 of July. The participants, in the beginning, welcomed its good results with much excitement and its stock rallied post-earnings solidly by completing the inner Stock Rally of $1273 .
Then, ever since, its stock price has deflated and given back plenty of its gains, and at the same time significantly underperformed its NASDAQ benchmark within the previous month.
By validating the negative sentiment, the stock has completed decline to its outer Stock Dip $1160 . This signalizes a slower rising rate, but may also be an early warning about a possible up-trend shift and rapid rise to Mean Resistance of $1207 price level ( Scenario 1 ), while Key Resistance $1250 is looming above.
Due to completion of the Stock Dip, and performing small dead-cat-bounce act there could be additional decline to test Mean Support $1139 ( Scenario 2 ). A reaction to this level may hold a great opportunity to go long.
GOOGLE ($GOOGL) - Divs, divs and more divs. Which side will win?A quick glance at the Google chart shows clear, long term bear divs on both the weekly and daily time frames. This "correction" was long due, and is resulting in clear hidden bullish divergence (yet to be confirmed) on both the weekly and daily charts. Price touched a major demand zone, making this ripe for a bounce if the market behaves, and tech stocks do not continue their dip.