Alphabet
Elliott Wave View: Alphabet ($GOOGL) May Find Support SoonAlphabet (GOOGL) cycle from 1.6.2023 low ended as a 5 waves impulse with wave ((1)) at $107.85. Pullback in wave ((2)) is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((1)), wave (A) ended at 100.87 and wave (B) ended at 108.18. Wave (C) is currently ongoing with subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 92.26 and wave 2 rally ended at 97.68. The 30 minutes chart below shows the starting point of wave 2 as the invalidation level.
Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 96.26 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 97.06. Stock extends lower in wave ((iii)) towards 89.76 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 91.16. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 88.58 which completed wave 3. Rally in wave 4 is in progress to correct cycle from 2.17.2023 high as a zigzag structure. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 90.26 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 89.33. Wave ((c)) higher is expected to reach 91.06 – 92.12 area where wave 4 should end. Afterwards, stock should resume lower in a marginal wave 5 to complete wave (C) and ((2)) before it turns higher. As long as the low on 10.31.2022 low holds at 83.34, the pullback should find support for extension higher or rally in 3 waves.
GOOGL:Fundamental Analysis + Possible Next Target Warren Buffett is an expert at capturing the attention of Wall Street analysts and investors. This could be attributed to the more than 3,800,000% cumulative return he has generated to his company's Class A stock (BRK.A) since taking over as CEO in the 1960s.
His stellar investment track record has enabled new and repeat investors to follow him for decades and achieve substantial returns. This is ultimately what makes Berkshire Hathaway's Form 13F filing such a highly anticipated event.
Many people who follow Berkshire Hathaway's buying and selling are presumably aware that Apple is the company's largest holding. Apple accounted for 41% of Berkshire's $342 billion in invested assets a week earlier. Apple was also one of three stocks added by Buffett and his investing team during the fourth quarter.
Similarly, Amazon has been a Berkshire Hathaway holding for the past four years (since Q1 of 2019). Oracle's prior remarks from Omaha imply that he was not the architect behind the takeover of the world's largest e-commerce company. Rather, one of his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, was responsible for the $1.06 billion holding in Amazon.
Buffett was only indirectly familiar with the other three FAANGs - Meta, Netflix, and Alphabet - before Berkshire Hathaway and New England Asset Management released its current 13F reports. The situation has now altered.
In the fourth quarter, New England Asset Management purchased 17,100 Alphabet shares, primarily Class A shares (GOOGL).
The straightforward answer to the question "Why Alphabet?" is based on three factors: market share, cash flow, and valuation.
Let us begin with the reality that Alphabet has a complete monopoly on Internet search. Since December 2018, Google has accounted for at least 91% of global search share, according to GlobalStats. Although ad spending cycles, Google's almost 90 percentage point dominance over its nearest competitor provides it unparalleled pricing power when working with advertisers. Given how the US and worldwide economies have developed over time, Alphabet, fuelled by advertising, is the clear winner.
Second, Alphabet is a money generator, allowing it to actively reinvest in a wide range of high-growth activities. The corporation generated $91.5 billion in operating cash flow in 2022. This massive cash flow allows the corporation to expand the scope of its Google Cloud infrastructure service, which has taken almost 10% of the world's cloud infrastructure market, according to a recent Canalys analysis.
Furthermore, Google's extraordinary cash flow, along with $99 billion in net cash, cash equivalents, and marketable Alphabet securities, allows the corporation to reinvest in the streaming channel YouTube, which is the world's second most visited social site. Alphabet is currently experimenting with new ways to monetize short videos known as YouTube Shorts. Every day, more than 50 billion "shorts" are viewed!
Third, Alphabet has historically been cheap in terms of both future revenue potential and cash flow. Despite a five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4, the company is now valued at 15.5 times Wall Street's predicted earnings for next year.
Furthermore, Alphabet has averaged 18.6 times year-end cash flow over the last five years. Investors may buy Google shares right now for just 6.5 times the company's estimated cash flow in 2026, according to Wall Street's most forward-looking projection.
In other words, Alphabet satisfies all of Buffett's investment criteria.
Alphabet fakeout after fear of AI update target $90 W Formation formed on Alphabet which then had a major fakeout
There was a test of the 200MA which Failed to break above and dropped.
Target $90
With Google and Alphabet trying to combat with the new challenge of creating a better CHAT GPT, it seems like the first version has failed.
There were many errors and false answers.
They also called the Ex CEOS and management to try and create similar versions through BING and BARD.
This caused fear with investors and lead to a $100 billion drop in market value.
Overall I think Google will find a way to replace Chat GPT or integrate the technology eventually. These are short term blips before the upside.
Right now we can remain bearish as the charts don't lie, but the price will need to drop below $90 in order to have a new analysis for downside.
I'll keep you updated as always.
AI: Google challenges Microsoft and launches BardInvestment confirms how the Silicon Valley giants are ready to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology.
Google (NASDAQ:{{6369|GOOGL}}) is challenging Microsoft (NASDAQ:{{252|MSFT}}) and launching Bard, the rival to ChatGPT, the OpenAI application on which the Redmond giant has bet billions of dollars. The introduction of Bard, the name seems to evoke William Shakespeare, the Bard par excellence of Anglo-Saxon culture, confirms how the race for artificial intelligence is accelerating, with Silicon Valley giants poised to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology.
In recent days Mountain View had announced a $300 million investment in the start-up Anthropic, an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. And now it is pushing further ahead with the introduction of Bard, which will initially be available for testing to trusted testers and then later be introduced to the general public, similar to how OpenAI did with ChatGPT.
"Secure, quality responses" - The testers have been selected, they are a geographically diverse group that will help Google improve and understand users' use of artificial intelligence. "We will combine external feedback with our internal testing to make sure that Bard's responses are quality, secure, and grounded in the real world," explained Mountain View CEO Sundar Pichai, stressing that the testing phase will help Google "continue to learn and improve Bard's quality and speed."
Bard aims to generate detailed answers to simple questions. Its operation is based on LaMDA, the Language Model for Dialogue Applications that made headlines last year for being called "sentient" by one of Google's engineers.
ChatGPT's success - Microsoft has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT and believed to be one of the world's top three labs for artificial intelligence. OpenAI has recently become a household name for millions of people thanks to the success of ChatGPT, which, since its introduction in November, has seen a boom in users and opened a heated debate about the potential and application of artificial intelligence, forcing schools and universities, among others, to begin rethinking their teaching models.
ChatGPT is indeed able to create text like a human being, using clear, defined prose and appropriate punctuation. For Microsoft therefore a huge chance to gain ground in the face of fierce rivals who, however, do not want to fall behind. As demonstrated by Google's Bard and Mark Zuckerberg's commitment to make meta one of the leaders in artificial intelligence.
Nasdaq's journey post breakout/ rates to look out for 06.02.20232 possible scenarios:
1) Price continues to charge forward post big "falling wedge" pattern breakout up, targeting 15,300 as breakout target (equal distance of wedge width measured from breakout) with 12,800 "rising wedge" resistance broken this scenario will be confirmed.
13,600 is in the way and could be correction back down 12,200-300 once reached, or can charge above to 15,300 straight.
2) Price drops from "rising wedge" resistance at 12,800 and breaks below 12,200 "rising wedge" support, which could target lower to 10,800 which would be retest of "falling wedge" breakout and target of "rising wedge" breakout combined.
A lot depends on FED policy and market sentiment, suggestable action would be once "rising wedge" (12,800 to 12,200) breaks down or up, indicating a much more clear direction.
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Do your own research and always trade with caution.
I am here for any questions or comments, would appreciate any interaction A LOT!
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GOOGLE (GOOG) Trade UpdatesGoogle (GOOG) Trade Updates
I entered November (see previous post) near the bottom with a price of 85.87, a profit of 13% so far, but the road is still long.
The volume knot near POC held up well, but the upper areas are very well covered.
Here too, as for AMZN, my target is the historical highs, even if for the medium term, the target is $115-120.
To keep an eye on earnings, Google is a company that I personally consider on a par with Apple, despite having a lower market cap, but has recently had some internal problems, which have seen significant layoffs in the staff.
This could also be positive in terms of the budget, you always have to look at the bigger picture.
Artificial intelligence, automatic driving and augmented reality remain the sectors to be monitored, clearly the core business remains the search engine and the revenues from the ads generated, also pay attention to the technology used in the Stadia project; it could be resold under license to other giants of the video game industry.
In conclusion, very negative earnings could push the price towards the $70 level, where I would increase my position.
Targets:
short: get out now
medium: 115-120$
long : $151
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
Google Analysis 22.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
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Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
Cloud computing: what are the big players telling us?Each earnings season, we become accustomed to certain patterns. One pattern involves the biggest tech companies reporting earnings before many other smaller and medium sized firms. In what we know is a very difficult economic backdrop, it’s important to look for signals that some of the world’s largest companies are giving us.
Additionally, since Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud are three of the world’s largest providers of public cloud infrastructure, it’s possible that these reports contain details about how companies are spending more broadly on technology. Combining the annual revenues of just these businesses (recognising that they are each part of larger companies) we see spending on cloud infrastructure annually in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
We believe that there is a difference between these three large public-cloud infrastructure providers and the much greater number of far smaller Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) providers. These three firms, for instance, are a major part of most market capitalisation-weighted benchmark indices. They are at a point in their life cycles where they should exhibit sensitivity to broad, global economic activity and growth expectations.
What can they tell us? The most important thing that we think the results of the big public-cloud providers can tell us regards trends in broad-based information technology spending on cloud computing. Eventually, the enterprise market will have ‘moved to the cloud’ and the growth rates of these large players should drop significantly. We are not yet there so, in this type of environment, we really want to see the resilience of cloud spending in the face of a tougher economic backdrop. There haven’t been that many economic slowdowns since the genesis of the cloud business model, and there certainly haven’t been sustained periods of inflation or central bank tightening.
What don’t they tell us? The smaller SaaS providers tend to help their customers with much more specific business initiatives. It may be accounting, compliance, cybersecurity, data analysis…the list is becoming endless. These companies are more idiosyncratic, in that their individual results do not translate to broad trends as clearly as the biggest company results would. However, we might see strong spending in cybersecurity, for example, and this may not be as clearly visible in the results of the biggest companies.
Our initial sense is that it is important to remember that, in many cases, businesses transitioning to the cloud is done to create efficiency and to accomplish more while investing either less time, less money or less of both. We think that this overall trend will continue, but it likely won’t continue at the rates seen in recent years if the global backdrop is characterised by a deteriorating economic picture. It’s also the case that many cloud-focused companies have seen their share prices drop significantly in 2022. This doesn’t mean that all the risk is ‘priced-in’ by any means, but it does tell us that the valuation risk of the space is lower relative to the much higher valuations seen towards the end of 2021.
Microsoft
Microsoft is a leader in the cloud space, and it’s important to note that the Azure infrastructure platform is one piece of the overall ‘Intelligent Cloud’ effort. Most attention goes to the year-over-year revenue growth rates, so it is instructive to first ground any discussion in some of the recent quarterly figures, which are shown in year-over-year terms for Azure specifically below1:
30 September 2021: 50%
31 December 2021: 46%
31 March 2022: 46%
30 June 2022: 40%
30 September 2022: 35%
It also helps to look at the overall revenue base to help ground any further thoughts about reasonable growth. While the quarterly results do look at more than the pure Azure revenues, broadening the picture to ‘Intelligent Cloud’, we see that Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud revenue was $16.91 billion as of 30 September 2021, and that this figure increased to $20.33 billion as of 30 September 2022. This is a quarterly figure, and it is beginning to be quite large, so part of the growth rate deceleration that we may be seeing could be attributed to the size and scale of these figures.
Analysts are seeing Azure customers very focused on optimising their cloud workloads, which helps them to save money, and it’s also the case that there is evidence that customers are pausing on new workloads. It is reasonable to think that, in an environment of slower economic growth, consumption-based business models like public cloud infrastructure may indicate shifts in customer-behaviour toward more essential workloads2.
Amazon
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the leading public cloud infrastructure platform based on market share, often cited as having a figure around 40% of the total. If we consider the year-over-year growth rates from recent quarters3:
30 September 2021: 39%.
31 December 2021: 40%
31 March 2022: 37%
30 June 2022: 33%
30 September 2022: 27%
Similar to the case of Microsoft, we are seeing decelerating growth rates. However, if we look to 30 September 2021, the trailing 12-month net sales for AWS was at $57.2 billion, and this same figure as of 30 September 2022 is $76.5 billion. These are getting to be quite large numbers.
Also similar to the story with Microsoft, enterprise cloud customers are looking to reduce costs within the AWS ecosystem. Analysts are continuing to note the long-term potential and how this differs from the situation within the shorter-term macroeconomic backdrop4.
Alphabet—Google Cloud in focus
Google Cloud, within Alphabet, does trail both Microsoft Azure and AWS in terms of market share, but Alphabet as a whole runs a formidable, cash-rich business, so they have been known to make large, splashy deals to gain high-profile cloud customers. If we note the year-over-year growth figures5:
30 September 2021: 45%
31 December 2021: 45%
31 March 2022: 44%
30 June 2022: 36%
30 September 2022: 38%
The growth rates are similar to what we noted with Microsoft Azure and AWS, but the dollar figures are much lower. As of 30 September 2021, the quarterly revenue from Google Cloud was reported at $4.99 billion, and then as of 30 September 2022, this figure had grown to $6.87 billion.
It is notable that, while Microsoft and Amazon saw quarter-to-quarter decelerations in growth rates, Google Cloud is cited as a bright spot of growth acceleration in Alphabet’s results. However, we note that Alphabet’s core business was certainly not immune to deteriorating economic conditions, and that the revenue figures are growing from a smaller overall base.
Conclusion: the economy matters but this is not the year 2000
The primary conclusion that we reach at this point is that economic conditions do matter for cloud computing companies. We have already seen their share price performance for 2022; it is crystal clear that market participants have re-assessed the appropriate valuation multiples for these firms considering higher inflation and higher interest rates. We will be watching closely to see how much revenue growth these companies can maintain as they continue to report earnings for the period ended 30 September 2022. The biggest companies, so far, have reported a range of 27% to 38%. It clearly isn’t the euphoric environment of 2020 any longer, but we don’t think it appropriate to say a ‘tech bubble is bursting’ either.
Sources
1 Source: Microsoft’s First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Results, 25 October 2022. Revenue figures presented in the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) format.
2 Source: Sills, Brad & Adam Bergere. “Expected Azure decel likely temporary, cyclical; model largely derisked.” Bank of America Securities. 26 October 2022.
3 Sources: Amazon’s Quarterly Earnings Conference Call Slides for the specific periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. The revenue growth figure is taken as the year-over-year growth without foreign exchange adjustment.
4 Source: Post, Justin & Michael McGovern. “Expecting Less this Holiday.” Bank of America Securities. 28 October 2022.
5 Sources: Alphabet’s Quarterly Earnings Announcements which specify the revenues from different business units on a quarterly basis for the periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. Percentage growth is calculated directly from the figures that Alphabet reports for Google Cloud, all in USD terms.
Technical Analysis of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)Hello guys,
I am sharing with you my analysis of Google.
I think the stock looks pretty cheap at the moment and it is forming a beautiful Double Bottom.
This is further supported by a MACD Bullish cross and upward trending RSI, which is above the 50 line.
Overall I think it has an appealing risk-to-reward opportunity.
What do you think?
Google - Bullish Harmonic The tech stocks witnessed deep corrections of over 30% on Nasdaq.
Nasdaq was one of the most underperforming indices in US and the bearish momentum prolongs on the first day of 2023.
The Bullish Harmonic pattern on $Goog confirmed the reversal but today's dip seems an opportunity to go long.
The pattern negates on breach of $80.
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Technical ReboundIf you haven`t sold GOOG at the top, when Ark Invest did:
Then you should know that a technical rebound refers to a recovery from a prior period of losses when technical signals indicate that the move was oversold.
In this case, the Relative Strength Index momentum indicator of GOOG is at 22.42.
Even though i am overall bearish on the economy, buying a strong financial instrument when the RSI is below 30, would make a case for a potential short term reversal.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Google | Looking For The Next TargetAlphabet Inc (Google) peaked in November 2021... With one last hurray in January 2022 that wicked higher.
The All Time High came in January this year but only by a wick as the weekly candle closed much lower.
We have a year long downtrend already.
Time does fly by when one is not paying attention.
We opened this chart out of curiosity.
Since the Nasdaq100 (NDX) index is set to crash, all these companies are likely to follow and the charts are matching this statement.
The good thing is that a bottom is getting closer and closer, maybe just another 6/7 months for these stocks but still too early for us to say.
The main support we are looking at is sitting at 72.38.
89.42 is the immediate support.
We see rejection after rejection each time Google closes above EMA10 and tries to move up.
No relief rally here, not even when the SPX and DJI had a relief for several months.
Will there be a relief now for Google?
Not likely, don't think so.
These stocks/companies have been growing for decades, the market moves in cycles.
We are bound to see additional bleeding before a return to sustained growth.
Around 68 is our mid-term target.
For the bottom... We will have another look at this chart in 3 months.
Namaste.
GOOG: Inverted Cup with Handle Google is playing out an inverted cup and handle with a conservative price target of $73-76. The price target should be lower, around $71.50, but I shaved a little off because there is some old support from the Jul-Oct 2020 period that should buoy the price, at least for a bit.
The daily EMA ribbon flipped bearish in April and since then a precipitous 38% downslide has ensued, the most recent retest of the daily EMA on Oct 24th yielded another crushing rejection. Price should be ready to run again to the downside as it recently slipped through a support/resistance line unrelated to the pattern around $89.40 and has since completed a pullback and been rejected.
GOOGLE A very bullish 2023 and this chart shows why.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) broke two weeks ago below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the March 2020 COVID crash. The next Support level is the 1W MA300 (red trend-line). Since its IPO, the stock has had very symmetric Cycles which with the help of the Sine Waves can show tops and bottoms for consistent sells and buys.
On this pattern, the price level is not as important as the timing. As you see even the latest (All Time) High was fairly accurately predicted by the Sine Waves. The next bottom is projected to be by the first week of January the latest. As a result, on a multi-year scale investment strategy, the time to buy Google comes closer and closer.
Based on the Fibonacci extension levels involved, every Cycle High is at least +0.5 Fib higher than the previous one (basically only one has been +0.5, the rest have been at least +1.0 Fib). As a result, the High of the next Cycle should be at least on the 4.5 Fibonacci extension, around $198.00!
Can 2023 be such a bullish year for the tech giant amidst the Bear Market of rising inflation?
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Google supported by weekly bullish div.Alphabet - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 103.66 (stop at 99.49)
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Bullish divergence can be seen on the weekly chart (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher.
The RSI is trending higher.
103.47 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent high at 103.47 should result in a further move higher.
With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended.
Our profit targets will be 114.49 and 118.49
Resistance: 103 / 106 / 112
Support: 100 / 98 / 96
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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Aplhabet Targeting A Test of 74.00Technical & Trade View
Alphabet Inc (Google) Class A
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 92.54
Technicals
Intraday 86.85 is primary resistance
Primary pattern objective is 74.00
Acceptance below 83.00 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance above 92.54 opens a test of 98.65
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish
Reversal about to start in Google!At this juncture we can see a clear completed 5 waves structure for Google on the daily timeframe confirmed by a bullish divergence with the RSI.
It would be nice to see the prices fall between the $89-$91 area where we can find a cluster of fibonacci's ratios.
If prices manage to bounce back from this target or even slighter before, prices should at minimum travel to $113 level in a corrective manner. Even though, this might look exciting for bulls, it will only be a rally before resuming the downtrend that will push prices lower than the temporary low that Google will make soon.
Overall, I am expecting the bottom of Google to happen any time soon and a rally all the way up to $113 for the weeks to come.
ALPHABET (GOOGL) 1D - Can BIG TECH FALL more in next quarter ? Holle Traders and Investors,
You can see Q3 resuluts of Big tech companies reported during recent days. Despite Alphabet reported growth (small but important) market is pricing it as slow / negative.
CEO pointed out possible declines in revenue with potential crisis. Could the following months be critical for further decline ?
In my oppinion, Technical analysis shows it could be. But as usual it depends on the point of view of the observer and interpretation of TA.
So take it with a grain of salt. The stock could fall another 30+ %. As long as the market gives as unclear signal we can come up with a strategy where the price could be interesting for us to BUY.
I will watch long term supoorts around "Pre-Covid" prices + wait for RSI / MACD 1W convergce to chatch it as close to bottom as possible. Next 3 months could be very important.
Do Your own homework before buying any stock ;)
Trade and invest safe...
Alphabet - Earnings report sends shockwaves through the marketYesterday, Alphabet sent shockwaves through the stock market after the close when it published its earnings report for the third quarter. The revenue was up 6% from the year earlier, and earnings per share stood at 1.06 USD, missing analysts' estimates. This earnings report is yet another line to confirm our thesis about the market progressing into the second stage of the bear market, with companies warning about the slowdown and failing to deliver expectations.
We expect this trend to continue during the next earning season and slowly lead the market into the third phase of the bear market. The same view is supported by the fact that the FED is about to increase interest rates next week and further tighten economic conditions, making a primary trend reversal very unlikely.
Therefore, we believe the reality will soon creep back into the market, and those who were buying the dip in hopes of catching a bottom will fulfill our prophecy once they sell those shares back to the market. As a result, we expect Alphabet to continue lower with the rest of the stock market.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the Alphabet stock. The yellow arrow points to the price retracement toward the 50-day SMA, representing a strong correction; the same retracement can be observed on the daily chart of Apple, Microsoft, General Motors, etc.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. DM+ and DM- are also bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, the data does not reflect the drop after earnings. Therefore, we expect the daily time frame to turn bearish today.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for Alphabet stock on the daily graph.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are slightly bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.