Best Value AI PlayAlphabet trades at 20x earnings vs. Microsoft's 29x. Bard is a worthy competitor to ChatGPT and we remind readers that Alphabet continues to be the world's dominant advertising business. Preference is GOOG, MSFT, AMZN in order. Strongly prefer GOOG to MSFT given valuation discount. We see upside for Alphabet at $140 per share and downside at $110. Read more at research.blackbull.com
Alphabet
Relational Technical Analysis of GOOGLProfessional traders controlled this sideways pattern that held higher lows before the break to the upside and gap up above the W bottom completion resistance, which is now strong support. Short-term profit-taking at the resistance overhead is something to prepare for now.
Google-> BreakoutHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Google stock is finally breaking above a major previous weekly support/resistance level exactly at the $105 area.
You can also see that weekly market structure and moving averages are bullish, the next major resistance is sitting at the $120 level and it overall seems like the bottom is in for Google so I just do expect more continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that with today's candle Google stock is up almost 5%, creating a massively bullish breakout and breaking all resistance towards the upside so I am now just waiting for a retest of the $105 level and then I do expect more continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Alphabet (Google) Ready to break up above the brim to $124.00Cup and Handle formed on Alphabet Inc.
The price action before that played to the Letter (no pun intended).
And now we are seeing a gradual increase in demand (buying) with the price ready to break above the brim level.
7=21
Price>200 - bullish
Target $124.00
SMC:
Sell Side Liquidity Order block has formed below the handle of the Cup, showing Smart Money coming in sweeping the selling side and buying into it, hence the upside over the last few days.
ABOUT
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate that was created in 2015 as a holding company for Google and several other subsidiaries.
The company's primary subsidiary is Google, the world's most popular search engine.
Alphabet is headquartered in Mountain View, California, USA.
The company's founders are Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who are also the co-founders of Google.
Alphabet has a market capitalization of over $1.5 trillion (as of April 2023).
Google is responsible for developing some of the most widely-used software products in the world, including the Android operating system, Google Maps, and Google Drive.
The company generates most of its revenue through advertising, with over 80% of its revenue coming from Google ads.
Alphabet has over 200,000 employees worldwide and is known for its unique company culture, which emphasizes innovation and collaboration.
The company is committed to sustainability and has set several ambitious goals, including a goal to operate on 100% renewable energy by 2030.
Alphabet is one of the largest technology companies in the world and is a member of the prestigious FAANG group of companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google).
The company is also a major player in the cloud computing industry, with Google Cloud Platform being one of the leading cloud computing services in the market.
Alphabet is known for its extensive research and development activities, with the company investing heavily in areas such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and quantum computing.
The company is also active in the self-driving car industry through its subsidiary Waymo.
GOOGL Alphabet Options Ahead of EarningsI you haven`t sold GOOGL here, to buy it cheaper later:
Then analyzing the options chain of GOOGL Alphabet prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the $106.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-6-16
for a premium of approximately $2.17.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
GOOGLE Ahead of a 1D Golden CrossAlphabet Inc (GOOGL) is about to form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, which is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a very bullish pattern, that can be enough to break above the Channel up pattern that the stock has been trading in since the November 03 2022 market bottom. In that case we will target Resistance 1 at 122.50.
If however we get a candle close below the 1D MA200, we will sell towards the bottom of the Channel Up and then buy for a 115.00 Higher High target.
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Google -> Finally The BottomHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Google stock just recently perfectly broke above and is now retesting a major previous weekly structure area which is now turned support at the HKEX:104 level.
You can also see that weekly market structure is now bullish, moving averages are also bullish and the recent price action on Alphabet stock just looks like a solid bottom formation so I simply do expect more continuation towards the upside from the current levels.
On the daily timeframe you can see that market structure is about to shift bearish so I am now just waiting for a clear bullish impulse and break above the daily HKEX:107 resistance before I then do expect more continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Google -> Ready For The RallyHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Google stock just recently broke above a quite obvious bearish trendline, breaking out of a multi-month downtrend.
You can also see that weekly market structure is bullish again, we already broke above the $100 resistance area and retested and rejected the area so everything seems very bullish on the weekly timeframe.
On the daily timeframe you can see that Google stock is retesting previous daily resistance at the FWB:108 area so I am now just waiting for a simple break and retest before I then do expect more continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Should Investors Consider Buying Alphabet Stock ?Alphabet's stock has risen by 25 percent from its 52-week low, but the emergence of artificial intelligence ChatGPT poses a real challenge to the company's search engine. However, investors may not fully comprehend the nature of the company or overlook the reasons to invest in Alphabet's stock. Therefore, they should take a macroeconomic perspective when evaluating the company.
Despite concerns about its position in search, Alphabet has evolved beyond its advertising-funded search engine, which helped it grow to its present size. With a growing interest in other parts of the technology industry, the company has been working for years to shift away from its ad-dependent model. It is worth noting that 79 percent of Alphabet's revenue still came from advertising last year.
Nonetheless, Google Cloud has become a significant source of revenue for the company. It accounts for 9% of Alphabet's revenue in 2022, up from just over 7% the previous year. Additionally, Alphabet owns numerous companies, including Verily Life Sciences, DeepMind, and Waymo, among others.
While Alphabet allows most of these companies to operate under different brands and rarely breaks down the financials separately, investors should not be surprised if some of these companies become more prominent within Alphabet if advertising growth continues to slow.
If Alphabet's multiple companies fail to save it from an advertising slump, its balance sheet can. The company's success in advertising has made it incredibly wealthy, with nearly $114 billion in liquidity. Although that amount is down from $140 billion in 2021, the cash reserves give Alphabet considerable leeway.
Alphabet generates around $60 billion in free cash flow in 2022 alone, and therefore, even if some concerns about Google's competitiveness in search prove valid, Alphabet is still likely to generate revenue from various other sources.
Despite Alphabet's favorable macroeconomic outlook, the stock price has steadily declined amid a bear market in technology and a downturn in the digital advertising industry. The stock price plummeted to $83 a share, about 45% from its peak to its low, due to concerns about ChatGPT. Although the stock has recovered somewhat since then, it is still selling at a 30 percent discount from its high in early 2022.
Moreover, the price momentum has driven its P/E ratio down to 23, making it a cheaper stock than all of its mega-tech peers. Given Alphabet's macroeconomic situation, investors may have an opportunity to purchase its stock. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain when ad spending will recover, and ChatGPT poses a real competitive threat to the search engine.
However, even if Alphabet loses its edge in these businesses, the company has plenty of other investments and a cash reserve of $114 billion, which ensures a long-term recovery regardless of how the search and digital advertising business develops.
Google - A Manipulation Dump and an Antitrust Exit PumpIf you have a taste for anything like freedom of speech, neither Google nor YouTube are companies you will like. This thing started as a search engine that actually had the motto "Don't Be Evil" before it was corrupted by the Chinese Communist Party when "very smart people" wanted to get it into China.
You see, doing business with "China" right now always means licking the boots of the "Chinese Communist Party."
This means you have to toe the Party Line, and that means topics like the June 4 Tiananmen Square Massacre and the persecution against Falun Gong, and Hong Kong democracy have to be suppressed in accordance with whatever the regime says during the previous, current, and future 2 hour periods of each and every day.
It was then that Google developed a taste for its own form of shadowbanning and thought itself smart to roll out the CCP's ethos into its worldwide business model. When you search for content you get curated whatever gibberished and extreme leftist-establishment stuff it thinks it can give you to either attempt to nudge your opinion and values (DONALD TRUMP BAD!), or to just cover up the truth (try finding an update on the pandemic situation in China that isn't 2 weeks old).
As scary as all of that is, more terrifying is the way that Google is able to control the editorial direction of every single website on the planet, especially news media, by strictly controlling the web ads market, which it has controlled 90% of for many years.
Don't want to follow the Party's edicts on stuff like the Marxist revolutionary group Black Lives Matter destroying cities? Don't want to promote masking, social distancing, and mandatory vaccination during a "pandemic"?
Then they take your site's ad revenue away, for real.
Hint: there aren't many ways to make money with a website whose product is free words ("news") besides advertisements.
On Jan. 24 the US Department of Justice finally launched an antitrust suit against Google , seeking to financially penalize and force Google to divest its share of the markets.
What's scary about this for investors is that Google inked $209 billion in revenue from web ads in 2021. According to Q3 Financials, ~$167 billion of its $207 billion in revenue for the 9 months ending in September 2022 came from web advertisements.
This part of its business is pretty much what Google actually is. The search engine is really just there to dominate the Internet for the purposes of keeping the ad revenue train clutched in their own claws.
And curiously, when the DOJ made the suit's announcement, Google's share price only fell $6, and over the course of two days, before rebounding in the big tech short squeeze.
This is kind of a big deal because Google losing its web ad business means Google goes out of business, and US Government antitrust lawsuits aren't this kind of thing that they drop one day or that the courts or a jury will side against the administration on.
Google's Q4/FY22 earnings is Feb. 2 postmarket. This timing is especially significant considering that the FOMC rate hike is Feb. 1.
The question when facing a strange price action situation underwritten by big fundamental changes with multiple culminating timing catalysts is always: Is the stock going to go up or is it going to go down?
The thing about Google's monthly bars is there's a very small gap at $81.05, which was conveniently evaded in the October dump and kept off during the Nov-December market retrace.
The clearest view of overall price action is on the weekly candles:
My thesis is that Google will have a terrible earnings call, regardless of whatever data it puts out, because of the pending lawsuit. I suspect markets will bear trap with FOMC, regardless of the fundamentals. All of these come together to make me believe that February prints $79-$81.
Makes for a nice 25% short.
But when this arrives, I believe Google and the Nasdaq in general will actually turn around and really trend hard upwards, regardless of the fundamentals.
This makes for a nice 29.5% long if Google really only retraces into the $95 gap, and a 50%+ long if she goes into the $81 range.
I believe the reason a tech pump will happen is because the sector attracts the biggest suckers (retail, Robinhood, Reddit, Cathy Woods, Jim Cramer) and Wall Street will be using them to empty their bags.
Citadel and JPM and friends always buy low and sell high. They don't buy high and sell low. That's what you do.
If banks and funds did that, they'd be broke like you are, and we'd have Bear Sterns every month.
Once big tech starts to trend upwards, you have to be careful. The market will more or less do what Tesla did the last two weeks and just go uppy as weekly puts expire worthless.
And there will be no real sign of anything fundamental that should stop the train. Everyone will flip bullish for one reason or another (mah 200 DMA, meh trendlines, moh 76.321847234% Fibonacci) and it'll seem like it's time to get back to the good old days of 2021.
But it's not 2021. It's 2023, and everything is broken. Summer is going to be harsh, and Autumn will scare you.
And then the Chinese Communist Party will be destroyed by Wuhan Pneumonia seemingly overnight, and all the plans will be interrupted.
My advice to traders is to just risk a lot less and try to keep your risk within your winnings as much as possible. Also, if you really do see a black swan with China that crashes markets, don't buy that dip. Not even a scalp. It won't be like COVID hysteria was with 1,000 point up and down swings on the Dow this time. Everything will just gap down and stay down.
Liquidity will be a precious commodity.
One thing I've learned is that people never believe in what they think can't happen until it's unfolding in front of their face. Then they come back and are like "Wow it really did happen!"
Even I am subject to that flaw, because the length of time things take to unfold makes actually believing you are right very, very difficult.
That being said, I believe that we're looking at overall feverish bull market hysteria heading into May.
But what happens starting in May and heading into July is very likely going to change everyone's lives forever and ever.
Google -> The Stock Is BackHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Google stock has been trading in a range for quite some time now, you can also see that the upper resistance of this trading range is exactly at $105.
You can also see that we are currently again retesting this resistance area, from a weekly perspective the market seems definitely ready for a breakout so I think that this time Google stock will actually break above this key resistance area.
On the daily timeframe I am now just waiting for a breakout above this resistance area and if we then get a retest and bullish confirmation, it is quite likely that from there we will then see more continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Alphabet Price Prediction 2023 (LONG)Alphabet Long price prediction for end of 2023 following Gann analysis and Fibonacci retracement, as usual.
LEVELS
Conservative: 98.30 USD (+ 9%)
Moderate: 103.40 USD (+ 13.7%)
Most realistic: 107.3 USD (+ 17.9%)
High Risk ( out of Fibonacci ): 113.3 USD (+ 24.46%)
Unrealistic ( still inside of Gann ): 130 USD (+ 42.75%)
Elliott Wave View: Alphabet ($GOOGL) May Find Support SoonAlphabet (GOOGL) cycle from 1.6.2023 low ended as a 5 waves impulse with wave ((1)) at $107.85. Pullback in wave ((2)) is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((1)), wave (A) ended at 100.87 and wave (B) ended at 108.18. Wave (C) is currently ongoing with subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 92.26 and wave 2 rally ended at 97.68. The 30 minutes chart below shows the starting point of wave 2 as the invalidation level.
Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 96.26 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 97.06. Stock extends lower in wave ((iii)) towards 89.76 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 91.16. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 88.58 which completed wave 3. Rally in wave 4 is in progress to correct cycle from 2.17.2023 high as a zigzag structure. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 90.26 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 89.33. Wave ((c)) higher is expected to reach 91.06 – 92.12 area where wave 4 should end. Afterwards, stock should resume lower in a marginal wave 5 to complete wave (C) and ((2)) before it turns higher. As long as the low on 10.31.2022 low holds at 83.34, the pullback should find support for extension higher or rally in 3 waves.
GOOGL:Fundamental Analysis + Possible Next Target Warren Buffett is an expert at capturing the attention of Wall Street analysts and investors. This could be attributed to the more than 3,800,000% cumulative return he has generated to his company's Class A stock (BRK.A) since taking over as CEO in the 1960s.
His stellar investment track record has enabled new and repeat investors to follow him for decades and achieve substantial returns. This is ultimately what makes Berkshire Hathaway's Form 13F filing such a highly anticipated event.
Many people who follow Berkshire Hathaway's buying and selling are presumably aware that Apple is the company's largest holding. Apple accounted for 41% of Berkshire's $342 billion in invested assets a week earlier. Apple was also one of three stocks added by Buffett and his investing team during the fourth quarter.
Similarly, Amazon has been a Berkshire Hathaway holding for the past four years (since Q1 of 2019). Oracle's prior remarks from Omaha imply that he was not the architect behind the takeover of the world's largest e-commerce company. Rather, one of his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, was responsible for the $1.06 billion holding in Amazon.
Buffett was only indirectly familiar with the other three FAANGs - Meta, Netflix, and Alphabet - before Berkshire Hathaway and New England Asset Management released its current 13F reports. The situation has now altered.
In the fourth quarter, New England Asset Management purchased 17,100 Alphabet shares, primarily Class A shares (GOOGL).
The straightforward answer to the question "Why Alphabet?" is based on three factors: market share, cash flow, and valuation.
Let us begin with the reality that Alphabet has a complete monopoly on Internet search. Since December 2018, Google has accounted for at least 91% of global search share, according to GlobalStats. Although ad spending cycles, Google's almost 90 percentage point dominance over its nearest competitor provides it unparalleled pricing power when working with advertisers. Given how the US and worldwide economies have developed over time, Alphabet, fuelled by advertising, is the clear winner.
Second, Alphabet is a money generator, allowing it to actively reinvest in a wide range of high-growth activities. The corporation generated $91.5 billion in operating cash flow in 2022. This massive cash flow allows the corporation to expand the scope of its Google Cloud infrastructure service, which has taken almost 10% of the world's cloud infrastructure market, according to a recent Canalys analysis.
Furthermore, Google's extraordinary cash flow, along with $99 billion in net cash, cash equivalents, and marketable Alphabet securities, allows the corporation to reinvest in the streaming channel YouTube, which is the world's second most visited social site. Alphabet is currently experimenting with new ways to monetize short videos known as YouTube Shorts. Every day, more than 50 billion "shorts" are viewed!
Third, Alphabet has historically been cheap in terms of both future revenue potential and cash flow. Despite a five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4, the company is now valued at 15.5 times Wall Street's predicted earnings for next year.
Furthermore, Alphabet has averaged 18.6 times year-end cash flow over the last five years. Investors may buy Google shares right now for just 6.5 times the company's estimated cash flow in 2026, according to Wall Street's most forward-looking projection.
In other words, Alphabet satisfies all of Buffett's investment criteria.
Alphabet fakeout after fear of AI update target $90 W Formation formed on Alphabet which then had a major fakeout
There was a test of the 200MA which Failed to break above and dropped.
Target $90
With Google and Alphabet trying to combat with the new challenge of creating a better CHAT GPT, it seems like the first version has failed.
There were many errors and false answers.
They also called the Ex CEOS and management to try and create similar versions through BING and BARD.
This caused fear with investors and lead to a $100 billion drop in market value.
Overall I think Google will find a way to replace Chat GPT or integrate the technology eventually. These are short term blips before the upside.
Right now we can remain bearish as the charts don't lie, but the price will need to drop below $90 in order to have a new analysis for downside.
I'll keep you updated as always.
AI: Google challenges Microsoft and launches BardInvestment confirms how the Silicon Valley giants are ready to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology.
Google (NASDAQ:{{6369|GOOGL}}) is challenging Microsoft (NASDAQ:{{252|MSFT}}) and launching Bard, the rival to ChatGPT, the OpenAI application on which the Redmond giant has bet billions of dollars. The introduction of Bard, the name seems to evoke William Shakespeare, the Bard par excellence of Anglo-Saxon culture, confirms how the race for artificial intelligence is accelerating, with Silicon Valley giants poised to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology.
In recent days Mountain View had announced a $300 million investment in the start-up Anthropic, an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. And now it is pushing further ahead with the introduction of Bard, which will initially be available for testing to trusted testers and then later be introduced to the general public, similar to how OpenAI did with ChatGPT.
"Secure, quality responses" - The testers have been selected, they are a geographically diverse group that will help Google improve and understand users' use of artificial intelligence. "We will combine external feedback with our internal testing to make sure that Bard's responses are quality, secure, and grounded in the real world," explained Mountain View CEO Sundar Pichai, stressing that the testing phase will help Google "continue to learn and improve Bard's quality and speed."
Bard aims to generate detailed answers to simple questions. Its operation is based on LaMDA, the Language Model for Dialogue Applications that made headlines last year for being called "sentient" by one of Google's engineers.
ChatGPT's success - Microsoft has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT and believed to be one of the world's top three labs for artificial intelligence. OpenAI has recently become a household name for millions of people thanks to the success of ChatGPT, which, since its introduction in November, has seen a boom in users and opened a heated debate about the potential and application of artificial intelligence, forcing schools and universities, among others, to begin rethinking their teaching models.
ChatGPT is indeed able to create text like a human being, using clear, defined prose and appropriate punctuation. For Microsoft therefore a huge chance to gain ground in the face of fierce rivals who, however, do not want to fall behind. As demonstrated by Google's Bard and Mark Zuckerberg's commitment to make meta one of the leaders in artificial intelligence.