Expecting a bounce back on Alphabet. GOOGFlat completed, now we are due for a bounce back, be it a dead cat bounce. Fib progression shows that there is still plenty of room (and time) for the market to show what it can do for the upside. Volatility flipped not too long ago on the 6 hourly also. Momentum uptrending for background.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Alphabet
GOOGL (Alphabet) to reach 112 by the end of AugustBackground
GOOGL has been trading in a channel between resistance level 119.68 and support between 105 and 102 since April 27th. On August 8th, GOOGL broke through the resistance level slightly before heading lower the next day, and it appeared that it was on it's way down to touch the support level for a 5th time in 3 months. But a surprise rally on August 10th sent the price towards the next resistance level of 122.85.
Analysis
While this appears to be a sustained rally, there have been 3 bearish key reversals in August. These are the first bearish reversals since May during which bullish reversals dominated (at least 6). This would indicate that a possible bearish move is imminent if the price bounces off the 122.85 resistance level in the next couple of trading sessions. The price could reach 112.50 by then end of the month.
What is a Key Reversal?
A bullish key reversal is when the price makes a new low, reverses, and closes near or on the high. A bearish key reversal is when the price makes a new high, reverses, and closes on or near the low.
Disclaimer: I could be completely wrong. I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
Alphabet heading to support? Alphabet
Short Term
We look to Buy at 106.02 (stop at 102.75)
Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Trading within the Channel formation. Previous support located at 106.00. There is ample scope for a move higher from this important support.
Our profit targets will be 113.59 and 118.25
Resistance: 119.00 / 125.00 / 142.00
Support: 108.00 / 106.00 / 100.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Alphabet | Fundamental Analysis | Long | MUST READ Alphabet stock is down about 16% over the past 12 months as investors worry about the macroeconomic problems of its core advertising business. Rising interest rates and a looming recession have also put pressure on the stock.
But that short-term factor aside, Alphabet stock looks historically cheap at 21 times projected earnings. For the foreseeable future, the company will continue to dominate the markets for search, digital advertising, streaming video, Web browsing, and mobile operating systems. Although its cloud business is smaller than that of Amazon or Microsoft, it may also continue to grow.
So selling Alphabet just because its advertising business is going through some tough quarters could be a mistake. Let's take a closer look at where the tech giant's stock could be headed a year from now.
In the second quarter of 2022, Alphabet generated 81 percent of its revenue from Google's advertising business, which includes its main search engine, ad network, and YouTube site.
"The Bears argue that this business will struggle in the face of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. Google's ad business growth has certainly declined over the past year, but it is still growing year over year (YOY).
In this segment, YouTube initially grew faster than Google's search and advertising business. However, YouTube's growth slowed in the first half of 2022 as it struggled to match the post-pandemic recovery in ad sales a year earlier.
When Google's ad business weakened at the start of the pandemic in the first half of 2020, the company relied heavily on Google Cloud growth, which was offset by lockdown trends and the growing use of cloud services.
Google Cloud continues to grow at a faster rate than the advertising business, but it is also losing momentum and is not growing much faster than its larger peers. Amazon, which leads the cloud race with Amazon Web Services (AWS), increased its cloud revenue 33% from a year ago to $19.7 billion in the most recent quarter. Microsoft's total cloud computing revenue, including its Azure cloud platform, rose 28% to $25 billion in the latest quarter.
This is troubling because Google Cloud is not yet a profitable company, and it may have to offer the lowest prices and aggressive promotions to keep up with Amazon and Microsoft. Simply put, it's not a solid crutch for Google to lean on if its advertising business ever stagnates - because an increased share of cloud revenue would likely result in lower overall operating margins.
Alphabet expects its advertising business to continue to face difficult comparisons with the recovery from the lock-in through 2022. The company also expects the growth rate of its cloud business to slow in the near term as macroeconomic factors will cause some customers to either spend less money or put off purchases.
Alphabet hasn't provided exact projections for the rest of the year, but during a recent conference call, CEO Sundar Pichai said the company will "slow down hiring and increase its focus." In other words, the company is preparing for a slowdown by cutting back on fat but expects total capital investment to increase in 2022.
In 2021, Alphabet's revenues and earnings were up 41% and 91%, respectively, as the company recovered from the pandemic. But this year, analysts expect the company's revenue to grow 13% and profits to fall 8% from this difficult period. In 2023, they expect revenue and profits to grow 12% and 16%, respectively -- assuming the current risk factors subside.
We should take these estimates with caution, but they indicate that Alphabet's slowdown is likely to be temporary, and its core businesses will continue to grow. Alphabet stock is unlikely to take off in the next 12 months - because at the moment it just seems reasonably valued, not undervalued - but it will definitely go up in the next few years.
Alphabet Inc-Bullish Swing The 20-day ranged Bollinger band presents a support or lower bound (red line) equal to $105. This is the price in which the stock closed at yesterday the 26/07/22. Before today the, the stock’s price was equal to the Bollinger’s 20-day ranged support level indicating a bullish correction before further bearish movements in line with the current macroeconomic environment. Since trading has opened today, we have witnessed a correction towards the Bollinger’s resistance landing just beneath the Bollinger’s middle bound (orange line).
Bullish movements are further supported by RSI and SMA indicators. The purple RSI is beginning to cross the yellow SMA suggesting bullish stock price movements. Furthermore, the MACD indicator presents the red MACD line also crossing its blue signal further supporting a bullish swing before further bearish movement.
In line with these signals, I anticipate the stock to beat the Bollinger’s middle bound and anticipate a strengthening buying trend. For this swing trade, I have set a strike price equal to $112. My target is bullish, I will sell before the end of the week at price greater than this strike.
Insiders Knew Something...(READ CAREFULLY)If you had watched Uber's chart in the past two weeks you have probably realized that it goes one day +5% the other day -5%, next day +4% and again -4% ....;
Experienced traders know that's a scary signal that indicates company is running out of money and is scrambling to survive with speculation !
This common phenomenon (+5%, -4%, +4%, -5% ...,) happens just few weeks prior to bankruptcy.
Speculation is because of no operating income...!!! Has lost more than 60% in the last year and is taking its last breaths.
Now I know my ABC, next time will you sell with me?Alphabet - Short Term - We look to Sell at 2306.60 (stop at 2426.25)
The medium term bias remains bearish. The sideways consolidation continued although the market managed to post a significant low at 2037.69. Continued downward momentum from 2393 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
Our profit targets will be 2001 and 1949.50
Resistance: 2393.70 / 2457.09 / 2490.00
Support: 2114.63 / 2100.92 / 2037.69
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
GOOG: Have we reached the bottom?Alphabet
Intraday - We look to Buy at 2214 (stop at 2105)
Buying pressure from 2150 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Prices expected to stall near trend line support. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 2549 and 2600
Resistance: 2555 / 2860 / 3032
Support: 2140 / 1900 / 1600
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Alphabet | Fundamental Analysis + NEXT TARGET | MUST READ | The countdown has begun. There are less than ten days to go before Alphabet's 20-to-1 stock split on July 15.
Many are undoubtedly contemplating buying up the tech giant's stock before the date. The idea behind such a decision is that Alphabet stock could jump if a lower price attracts an influx of small investors.
That could be a winning strategy. But here are a few reasons not to buy Alphabet stock before the split.
The need for cash in the near term
Never invest cash in a stock that you may need in the near term. The definition of "near term" may vary from person to person. However, a good rule of thumb is not to invest cash that you might need in the next five years.
The past few months have clearly demonstrated why such a cautious stance makes sense. The S&P 500 has experienced its worst first half of the year since 1970. Alphabet is performing worse than the S&P, with its stock down about 25 percent over the year.
There is no guarantee that Alphabet's impending split will serve as a positive catalyst. Amazon also had a 20-to-1 split last month. The company's stock didn't soar but instead fell. Alphabet may well suffer a similar fate.
Lack of diversification
Another straightforward reason why you shouldn't buy Alphabet stock before it splits is that your investments are not sufficiently diversified. The most obvious example of a lack of diversification, in this case, would be the fact that Alphabet already makes up the majority of your overall portfolio.
But you may also have most of your investments in other growth stocks that are highly correlated with the movement of Alphabet stock. In that case, buying Alphabet won't help improve the diversification of your portfolio.
The point of diversification is that it reduces overall risk. The old adage about not putting all your eggs in one basket is more relevant than ever.
Recession Concerns
If you fear a recession is just around the corner, you probably shouldn't buy Alphabet stock before the company does a split. The company's stock has not performed well during previous recessions.
For example, during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, Google stock fell more than 60 percent. During the short pandemic recession of 2020, the stock fell 23% below its previous high.
Concerns about the recession are understandable. Nearly 70% of economists surveyed by the Financial Times predict that the U.S. economy will enter a recession next year. Some investors, such as ARK Invest CEO Kathy Wood, believe we are already in a recession.
You may have noticed that none of the above reasons have anything to do with Alphabet itself. The need for cash in the near term, lack of diversification, and fears of an impending recession are legitimate reasons for not buying any stock.
Beyond that, we have not discussed the advantages of buying Alphabet before the split versus buying it after the split. No one knows what will happen next, as there are too many variables.
However, we can think of several good reasons for buying Alphabet that have nothing to do with the split. In particular, the company has an exceptionally strong business market. The likelihood that any competitor could knock Alphabet from its position seems very low.
Alphabet also has many growth drivers. Its core Google advertising business remains strong. Its Google Cloud division continues to show strong growth. And its famous "other bets" (especially Waymo's self-driving car technology business) could also contribute significantly over time.
Reasons to stay away from Alphabet focus on the short term. But for investors focused on the long term, any time could be a good time to buy the stock.
GOOG Alphabet Stock SplitGOOG 20-for-1 stock split is scheduled to occur on July 15.
Companies that that did stock splits statistically had outperform the market in the 12 months following the split.
I think we will se GOOG trading at $2350 ahead of the split.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
GOOGL dailyGreen zones are potential good area to average in shares.
+ Back over 20day SMA
+ Need to hold blue zone, confluence with 20day
+ Historically good moving average: 150 weeklySMA
- Still not above neutral
- Declining moving averages (resistance on a uptrend)
- 2 gaps remaining
- This yellow box can look like a distribution phase after a long run up, we would now need to wait a new accumulation phase to get back in
Alphabet (NASDAQ: $GOOG) Is World's Top Search Engine 🍲Alphabet Inc. provides various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment offers products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in the Google Play store; and Fitbit wearable devices, Google Nest home products, Pixel phones, and other devices, as well as in the provision of YouTube non-advertising services. The Google Cloud segment offers infrastructure, platform, and other services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet; and other services for enterprise customers. The Other Bets segment sells health technology and internet services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
GOOG BullishNot sure why no one is talking about GOOG at these levels. Such a sleeper tbh. 2333.33 is so programmed. I am full porting short terms calls on this. If it doesn't work out I will probably stop posting on tradingview because the market is totally rigged if Google keeps falling. Bless up !
Daily US Stocks Volatility Forecast 23 May 22 APPL, TSLA, MSFTApple 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.63% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 138 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 138 + 3.6 -> aprox 141.6
BOT 138 - 3.6 -> aprox 134.4
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.94%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 138 + 5.4 -> aprox 143.4
BOT 138 - 5.4 -> aprox 132.6
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Microsoft 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.63% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 253 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 253 + 6.6 -> aprox 259,6
BOT 253 - 6.6 -> aprox 246,4
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.75%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 92% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 253 + 9.5 -> aprox 262,5
BOT 253 - 9.5 -> aprox 243,5
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TSLA 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 5.44% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 665 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 665 + 36 -> aprox 701
BOT 665 - 36 -> aprox 629
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 5.44%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 665 + 55 -> aprox 720
BOT 665 - 55 -> aprox 610
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Google 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.7% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 2180 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 2180 + 60 -> aprox 2240
BOT 2180 - 60 -> aprox 2120
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.6%
With this we can achieve over the last 4000+daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 2180 + 80 -> aprox 2260
BOT 2180 - 80 -> aprox 2100
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Expected Key Points Google 12 May 2022Google 12 May 2022
The current implied volatility is at 44.32%/year
So that converted into daily is 2.79%
The close of yesterday was 2272
So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed within
TOP 2335
BOT 2208
with a probability chance of 78.2% based on the last 3007 candles
From fundamental point, today we have
PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment
At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May GoogleGoogle
9 - 13 May
The weekly VXGOG-> Volatility Index for Google
Implied = 40.95
In this we have to standard it for weekly session
40.95 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.68%
My historical product is telling me with 1x coficient that the expected movement for this week
E Volatility = 41.19 / sqrt(52) = 5.71%
With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 83.3% chance that the market
stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol
So for next week this range for us is going to be
TOP - 2447
BOT - 2183
#ALPHA/USDT 2hour UPDATE BY CRYPTOSANDERS !Hello, community members welcome to the ALPHA/USDT chart analysis.
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart.
As we can see from the above-mentioned chart that ALPHA/USDT broke the triangle pattern and retested well.
According to the current scenario, it can move up by almost 40% from the green zone which is also a support zone.
So, here we can take a long position for some short-term profit gains.
Entry:- $0.2590,$0.2640
Traget:- 40%
Stoploss:- $0.2470
Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade.
Happy trading.
Sorry for my English it is not my native language.
Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section.
Thank you...