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UPDATE: Pan Africa hit the target at R.475 - Do we sell?Well this analysis took forever. The price broke above the Broadening Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (If there is such a thing) in June 2023. If you held on this long to exit and bank a profit, you would be lucky if you even made some money considering the daily interest charges on CFDs... However as a share and equity investor, this position would have been the perfect medium term trade. Sometimes, when I project such large targets, I think of just going back into equities. Regardless, the trend id still up - Gold is still bullish and out other Gold positions are all longs. So, keep to the trend until it bends... Uncle T out.
JSE:PANLong
by Timonrosso
1
TARGET 1 reached - Next target is even higher to R28.68Bell Equipment reached our first target R20.54 in November 2023. It then had a mark-up phase before consolidating into a W Formation. Once the price broke above, we knew demand and buying was still on the cards. technically we have price above both 20MA and 200MA. So the next target for Bell Equipment is set to R28.68. ABOUT THE COMPANY Bell Equipment is a pivotal player in South Africa's heavy equipment industry, renowned for its strong and reliable machinery, particularly in the construction, mining, quarrying, agriculture, forestry, and waste handling sectors. Foundation and Specialization: Established over sixty years ago, Bell Equipment has become South Africa's only major designer, manufacturer, and distributor of heavy equipment, recognized globally as a specialist in articulated dump trucks (ADTs)​​. Core Product: The ADT is Bell Equipment's core product, showcasing the company's innovation and leading performance globally. Bell ADTs are exported worldwide from their manufacturing plants in South Africa and Germany​​. Product Range and Strategic Dealerships: In addition to its own products, Bell holds strategic dealerships with several leading global manufacturers, offering over 120 products suited to various applications, including wheel loaders, excavators, motor graders, and more​​. International Presence: Bell Equipment has a strong international presence, with operations not just in Southern Africa but also in key global markets like North and South America, the Middle East, and parts of Europe and Asia​​. Innovation in Tracked Carriers: The company has introduced Bell Tracked Carriers, leveraging its expertise in ADTs, designed for challenging terrains and conditions, such as remote pipeline projects in the US, with applications expanding globally​​.
JSE:BELLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE Vukile still building its way to R17,59This is from the last update. We saw an Inv Head and Shoulders from AUg 2023 to December 2023. The price then broke above the Brim and the entire market went through an uptrend trajectory. Higher lows each time, one fakeout, then a continued bullish momentum nuation. Price remains above the 200MA and 20MA which signals upwards to come. The target remains at R17.59 ABOUT THE COMPANY Vukile Property Fund Limited is a notable retail-focused Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) operating in South Africa and Spain. Establishment and Listings: Vukile was established in 2002 and listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) on June 24, 2004. It expanded its listings to the Namibian Stock Exchange on July 11, 2007​​. CEO: Laurence Gary Rapp has been leading Vukile as its Chief Executive Officer, guiding the company's growth and expansion strategies​​. Diverse Portfolio: The company owns a variety of retail properties across South Africa and Spain, providing a well-diversified exposure across different macroeconomic drivers and a substantial Rand hedge portfolio. Its South African property portfolio includes around 40 properties with a gross lettable area (GLA) of approximately 859,772 square meters​​. Recent Achievements: Vukile has demonstrated resilience and growth, delivering a 10% increase in its cash dividend and updating its FY2024 guidance with positive expectations​​. Specialist Focus: As a specialist retail SA REIT, Vukile focuses on delivering spaces and experiences that exceed customer and tenant expectations, aiming to be the most trusted and respected retail property business in South Africa​​​​.
JSE:VKELong
by Timonrosso
Libstar soon to rocket to R5.00?These Penny type stocks are very difficult to analyse technically. There is little volume, high volatility and almost no liquidity. You can see this by jumping candlesticks between ranges (bids and offers). So we can deduct a few things but with less certainty than with Blue Chips. 1. Downtrend broken 2. Price ready to break above 200MA - Bullish trend 3. Price to break above the Rectangle formation - Bullish. If we get a strong push above the range, the next target could be well to R5.00. If it breaks down, then things will change to bearish. ABOUT THE COMPANY Libstar Holdings Limited, a prominent player in South Africa's food and consumer goods industry: Established in 2005: Libstar was founded to acquire and grow businesses in the consumer packaged goods sector, aiming to create products that enhance family unity​​. Headquartered in Plattekloof, South Africa: The company operates from its headquarters in Cape Town but has a presence across several provinces in South Africa​​. Wide Range of Products: Libstar boasts an extensive portfolio of over 9,000 products, including dairy and meat products, fresh produce, groceries, and more​​. Segments of Operation: The company operates through various segments, including Perishables, Groceries, Snacks and Confectionery, Baking and Baking Aids, and Household and Personal Care​​. B2B and B2C Focus: Libstar serves both business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) markets, offering outsourced manufacturing solutions and food service solutions alongside its consumer products​​.
JSE:LBRLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: PPC Cup and Handle to a Diamond snoozing formationSince the price broke above the brim level for PPC, it's since formed a DIamond FOrmation. There are TWO scenarios we can see: A bullish Diamond broadening formation. It resembles a diamond with high volatility and jumpiness between the price range. We wait for the diamond to form and then wait for the breakout to the upside. A bearish Diamond broadening pattern, where the price breaks below the support of the diamond formation. TIPS FOR BOTH It is common to see Diamond formations to form in up or down trends and then break either way. So we do need to wait for the breakout. I am cautiously optimistic as the previous trend was up, the price is above the 200MA. And so the target remains at R4.40.
JSE:PPCLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Transaction Capital on its way to the 2nd target R11.53Two formations occured with TCP. The first one was a W Formation which broke above the neckline and headed to the target 1 of R6.88. The second, was yet another W Formation which the price broke above the neckline. And it was considered in the HIgh Probability trading range as the price was above both 20MA and 200MA for the first time in a long time. SInce then the trajectory has been smooth sailing up. Target remains at R11.53.
JSE:TCPLong
by Timonrosso
JSE TOP 40 potential big Diamond breakdown to 58,288Bearish Diamond formation is potentially forming on JSE Top 40. We've seen bearish tendencies for the market with momentum downside. Price<20 and Price<200 - HPT We DO need this price to break below the Diamond before the likelhood is higher for big downside. But knowing indices, they always tend to suprise and the market makes a big rally. ANyway, the momentum is down for now and if the diamon breaks below the next target could be at 58,288. Let's see
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Will be get our long awaited breakout yet?Sun International has been a roller coaster of a ride. Been swinging between R38.00 and R42,50. Well, lately we've seen higher lows, and the price keeps touching the top. It's like hitting thin ice. Eventually it'll break up and out. So, let's see what it does. UPDATE: Over the past year, the most notable insider purchase was made by CEO & Executive Director Anthony Leeming, who bought shares valued at R2.2 million, priced around R36.42 each. While insider purchases are generally a positive sign, it's important to note that this significant buy was made at a price considerably lower than the current price of R41.70. This lower purchase price suggests that it may not provide much insight into whether insiders currently see the stock as a good value. During the last year, insiders at Sun International have been buying shares but haven't sold any. The insider transactions for the past year, including purchases by both companies and individuals, are illustrated in the provided chart. For detailed information on the transactions, including specifics on who sold shares, the sale amounts, and the timing, you're encouraged to check the chart directly.
JSE:SUILong
by Timonrosso
Aveng W Formation nearly time for a Breakout at R11.25We see a W Formation, with the price moving and completing the right Double Bottom. Once we get a breakout to the upside, we could see major upside to R11.25. Right now and it's a wait and see but the fundamentals look good. UPDATE: On February 16, 2024, the company announced an expected 45% increase in revenue for the six months ending December 31, 2023. This good news reflects the strong performance of Aveng and its significant progress through its divisions, McConnell Dowell and Moolmans. Following this announcement, Aveng's stock price jumped by nearly 15%, showing that investors are really optimistic about the company's future.
JSE:AEGLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Merafe entered into a sideways Twilight Zone What's nextWe see Merafe has definitely entered into a Rectangle formation. Price is remaining above the 200MA where it could range between the high and low. We definitely need a breakout to the upside, before we see upside. The target potential will be at R1.61 if the price breaks above the Rectangle. Now I wouldn't be that positive and optimistic with this analysis, due to the bad numbers released with ferrochrome. UPDATE: In a strategic move that echoed the prevailing market conditions, Merafe Resources, the South African ferrochrome producer, reported a considerable drop in production for the year. The company's attributable ferrochrome production fell by a substantial 22% from 384 kilotons in the preceding year to 300 kilotons. This planned reduction in output was primarily driven by the high electricity demand during the winter season, characterised by escalated power prices. As a result, the Lion smelter was the only operational facility during this period.
JSE:MRF
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Transaction Capital heading up to target 2 - R11.53Transaction Capital has been the come back duck since October. It's reached the first target of R6.88 in December. It then moved in a consolidation sideways pattern that formed a W Pattern. Since it broke above the neckline, the momentum has been on fire. This is just an update that the price is on its way to the next target at R11.53. UPDATE: Transaction Capital aims to generate between R900 million and R1.25 billion through the sale and issuance of shares in WeBuyCars. Preceding the proposed separation and independent listing of the successful second-hand car dealership. The strategy includes offering new shares to the asset manager Coronation, along with the issuance of additional shares for acquisition by new investors, which will result in a reduction of Transaction Capital's stake in WeBuyCars from 74.9% to a range of 57% to 67%.
JSE:TCPLong
by Timonrosso
Harmony prepping for potential upside - Wait for breakoutHarmony is one of the laggards with Gold. While it is moving in a sideways consolidation range, we are waiting for a confirmed breakout. Once it breaks above, we will definitely get long and hold with a strong Risk to Reward. But right now patience is important, cause it could also fall South quickly. In fact, if you draw a Rectangle formation instead of an Inv H &S, it means that whether it breaks down or up, it could provide a very decent trade signal. My bias is up purely based on being a golden bull this year.
JSE:HARLong
by Timonrosso
Vuvuzela wins again but this time it's a Pan to R4.75!We sent out this update in July 2023, where a Vuvuzela (Broadening Formation) formed. INstead of waiting for a breakout, we were playing with the pattern's range instead. Since it bounced off the Support level it's been on the way to R4.75. And you can see the price almost touched it, before retracing back to the uptrend line. So have we been getting it right? SO far yes. Have we been coining it? HARD NO. Sometimes it doesn't pay to hold because of the daily interest charges that lovely CFDs bestow upon us. And this is a clear example on why it's tough to invest in the CFD market. The target remains to R4.75. And we'll take our pennies and run when it hits. Also, in the interim it seems to be forming a Diamond Formation similar to Gold stocks. So maybe a bigger breakout is imminent. I explained why we can expect gold to rally due to what's happening in the US.
JSE:PANLong
by Timonrosso
AngloGold Ashanti making Diamonds! - New target to R451.84Diamond Formation (Broadening) has formed on ANG. This is a rare formation that resembles a Diamond. It's also a formation between a tug of war between the Bulls and the Bears, until there is a breakout. Now either I'm a Gold bullion, or intution is just telling me we are in for a breakout to the upside. And funny enough the indicators don't agree as they're mixed. Price >20 Price<200MA Target R451.84 FUNDAMENTALS WHY LOWER INTEREST RATES BOOSTS GOLD: Now before I go I wanted to share my fundamental view on why I think gold is in for upside. And it's because of the idea that the Interest Rates will remain down and even be cut up to 125 BPS. But why would lower interest rates lead to a gold run up? Here is some food for thought. Remember when it comes to interest rate cuts it means the following: Stimulates economic growth This makes borrowing cheaper as interest rates are lower. And it encourages more spending and investments by individuals and businesses. Boosts buying from consumers Also, with low interest rates it entices people to buy more. And this is because the cost of loans drops. This leads to them buying more homes, cars, and other goods. There are other elements, but you get the idea. Now, lets consider why lower interest rates could mean the gold price will rally Reason #1: Lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar helps the gold price When interest rates drop, the yield on bonds and savings accounts typically declines. And a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for people with other currencies. It's like gold goes on a global sale, and everyone wants a piece! So, this will drive up its demand and the price. Reason #2: Investors get out of low yielding markets and into gold Remember that when interest rates are high, investors move to high yielding markets. They like to keep their money in the banks, bonds, money market or any other high interest savings accounts. But when interest rates drop, investors don’t make much of their money from these assets. And so, they will look to invest in markets like gold, which will drive the price up. Reason #3: The golden safe-haven will prevail! With interest rate cuts, it normally signals signs of economic uncertainty or weakness. And during these times, investors will often seek out safe-haven assets. Gold is a classic example of a safe haven that investors will look to buy. And this golden attraction will help push the price up. We need to wait for the breakout to act though... Until then, we can observe and share our biases.
JSE:ANGLong
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI waiting for a direction to break out of The JSE ALSI 40 continues to move in some form of Symmetrical Triangle. And it's been doing so since September 2023. Right now the price is below the 200MA which does indicate a BEAR market. However, when you see the 200MA, it's been moving sideways, which does not give the indicator it's reliable signal for a trending motion. And with the price near the apex, means a breakout is imminent. If we look at the international markets like the Dow Jones and S&P500, they've hit all time highs. And as you know, the international markets are leading indicators which could mean we could see JSE ALSI breaking up and also heading to all time highs. The first target will be set to 73,637 and the next is the moon. So yes, my bias is bullish in Q1 - 12024
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 poised for upside this year - Target 84,298TECHNICALS Symmetrical Triangle has formed on the daily since I would say 10 August 2023. There are good technical signs that a breakout to the upside is imminent. First we have a long term upward range from 2020 which the price continues to bounce off the uptrend. Second we have a trending 200MA which the price still needs to break above as it's been in a pathetic sideways range for the last year. JSE traders know what I'm talking about. But once we get that breakout, we could see a target of 84,289 FUNDAMENTALS Index Rebalancing and Convergence There's a note on the JSE’s planned index harmonization which could affect the ALSI and Swix indices, aiming for a convergence by March 2024. INDEX PERFORMANCE This adjustment might influence the index's composition and performance, potentially affecting investor sentiment positively depending on the specifics of the harmonization. This can increase investor confidence in the index as a benchmark, potentially leading to more investment in products tied to the index, such as ETFs and mutual funds. BALANCE EXPOSURE! Also there could be better balance exposure across stocks or sectors, reducing volatility and appealing to risk-averse investors.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
SAPPI looking shap! Target potential to R56.76Symmetrical Triangle seems to have formed on Sappi. Now on the contrary of a Symmetrical Triangle being a Continuation pattern, it is possible for a reversal to take place in this instance. We have the converging of the trendlines where the price has reached an apex. Strong buy divergences and price action to the up. It's a bit premature to BUY just yet but I anticipate a breakour to the upside. Then full steam ahead. Other peripheral indicators confirm upside: 7>21>200 RSI>50 (Buy divergence) Target R56.76
JSE:SAPLong
by Timonrosso
Tsogo Sun - WHich way to break out? R1.94 or R27.69?The daily is very noisy. Even the weekly is crazy. So I had to really break it down and look at the monthly chart. And what we can see is the noise being reduced to a RECTANGLE. Now right now the price action is down. Despite the breakin uptrend. Despite the higher lows. The current momentum is down. And all we can do is wait for a breakout. Which way to Break? Break down - R1.94 Break up - R27.69 I am going to remain neutral and this play is a MAJOR patience game that can take YEARS to play out. I don't like what I'm seeing with the fundamentals: High Level of Debt: Tsogo Sun has been reported to have a high level of debt. A substantial debt burden can be a concern for investors as it may affect the company's financial flexibility and profitability due to the interest and repayments required. Unstable Dividend Track Record: The company has had an unstable dividend track record, which may lead to concerns about the consistency of returns to shareholders. Valuation Concerns: Even though the stock has been trading below what is estimated as its fair value, investors may still have concerns about the future growth prospects and other intrinsic valuation metrics. Performance Relative to Industry: Tsogo Sun has underperformed the ZA Hospitality industry, which returned 5.1% over the past year, indicating that it may not be keeping pace with its industry peers.
JSE:TSG
by Timonrosso
1