Devil's Advocate Analysis of Prior AnalysisI mentioned an analysis would be published in the event the market has not topped. This analysis can be useful if the market abides by it we could return up, otherwise it can help confirm the market top did occur on June 16. If the top from June 16 was not the market top we are likely in Intermediate wave 4 and may have possibly finished the bottom with the low on June 23. Based on waves ending in 2BC4, the quartile levels for retracement (light blue lines) are 13.73%, 15.06%, and 74.64%. The duration for Intermediate wave 4 is either 2 or 12 trading days based on model agreement. Second most model agreement is at 15 and 20 days. Based on waves ending in BC4, quartile levels (yellow on chart above) are 23.9%, 46.49%, and 55.05%. Majority of models point to a duration of 2 trading days long, with second most at 3 trading days. Third model agreement is 12 days and fourth agreement is 7 days. The broadest dataset is models ending in C4 wherein the quartile levels are 27.2%, 42.48%, and 55.05%. Trading day duration have most models agreeing with 12 days. Then the models agree on duration in the following order: 5 days; 1 & 7 days; 2, 4, & 6 days; and 8 & 14 days.
The original analysis when forecasting Intermediate wave 4 had the same levels for retracement while the lengths were shorter. The most accurate levels based on specific relational data has already been surpassed when the market dropped beyond 3 days and the lowest level was well below 4388.20 (15.06% retracement). It is still possible for Intermediate wave 4 to go below 4388.20 and beyond 3 trading days in length (4 days at the time of writing).
My other indicators at the bottom of the chart indicate a near term bottom is not likely in which further indicates the market will still achieve a new low soon. A wave 3 signal did occur inline with the June 16 market top which could have indicated the end of Intermediate wave 3, however, it also signals the end of a 2, 4, or B wave. My initial analysis has this as the end of a macro wave B. My SAG Gauge indicates more down days are record to pull the market back from an overbought territory that always corrects. I still believe the market topped on June 16th and we will be heading down for at least the next 14 months. This analysis of being in Intermediate wave 4 will only be proven accurate if a new high above 4448.47 is achieved while invalidated below 4048.28.
