Altseason
$TOTAL3 & $OTHERS Alt Season Breakout vs $BTC.D !!!If you’re still wondering whether Alt Season is here or not, this is the only chart you need to see to prove it is.
BTC.D has been going down while CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 has broken previous ATH with CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS lagging a bit behind.
This shows the rotation from CRYPTOCAP:BTC -> Mid Caps -> Small Caps
Monetary policy, more importantly rate cuts, have signaled “Risk On”, and the market has responded accordingly.
Expecting the Peak of Altcoin Season Starts in Q1 Hello,
Based on historical trends, I've observed that January and February are typically bullish months in the cryptocurrency market. During past bull runs, like 2021, altcoins often outperformed Bitcoin, driven by increased retail and institutional investment in smaller-cap cryptocurrencies. I anticipate that the peak of the altcoin season will likely begin in Q1 of the upcoming year.
ALT SENSATIONAL Everyone is watching this 60% level on CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D for the potential reversal from bitcoin dominance into alts. And I agree based on the order block and golden zone confluence.
The next step I take if I believe an alt season is soon, which is around the corner sooner than one would think, is to hawk the btc and ratio pair charts.
Here are a few that have piqued my interest as of now. This does not mean they immediately pump but rather offer some decent risk reward trade opportunities. I have no idea if these are the generational bottom but frankly they could be.
MEXC:TAOUSDT TAO
BINANCE:BNBUSDT BNB
OKX:OPUSDT OP
BINANCE:NEARUSDT NEAR
BINANCE:AVAXUSDT AVAX
BINANCE:JUPUSDT JUP
CRYPTO:WIFUSD WIF
- Robinhood + Coinbase wombo combo listing
Always be pitting your favorite altcoin vs btc or vs the native chain token the coin is on. Like PEPEETH or BONKSOL etc.
Oftentimes the true bottom or the major turning points present themselves once the ratio pair charts begin to reach key levels of support or resistance. Study and track diligently.
Some alts have already had an initial push up probably taking out some short liquidations. The key is looking for the laggards and the bull divergences.
BITCOIN | MACRO OUTLOOK | Top is IN | ALTCOINS SHINEI've been risking my opinion for the better part of a year, saying that the ATH is stilllll coming. Now, it's time for me to choose my trades again; and I'm choosing to take my profits here.
Here's a replay of an entire year's worth of BTC updates, incase you want to verify😉:
The next thing I'm looking at is the continuation of Altseason , because the TOTAL3 chart peaks AFTER the BTC high. I touched a little bit on this mechanic here; but I think I'll do another update on that in coming days.
After alts top-out, for BTC bounce zones I'll consider the moving averages, Elliot wave corrective theory, and previous resistance zones as new bounce zones. But this is near term, not short term.
Stay tuned!! Cheers to the believers 🥂
________________
COINBASE:BTCUSD
Arbitrum will be golden cross!Arbitrum (ARB) is on the verge of something big! With a golden cross forming in the next few weeks, all signs point to a major breakout. This technical pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day, has historically signaled strong bullish momentum. As we gear up for altseason, Arbitrum’s growing ecosystem, low transaction costs, and fast processing times make it a standout contender. Could this be the start of ARB becoming one of the most popular coins in the next market cycle?
With Ethereum’s scalability solutions becoming increasingly critical and Arbitrum leading the charge in Layer 2 solutions, the future looks bright for this project. Investors are starting to take notice, and as more dApps and DeFi protocols continue to build on Arbitrum, its value proposition is becoming hard to ignore.
Are we about to witness Arbitrum soar to new heights as the golden cross triggers the next wave of bullish sentiment? Time will tell, but for now, ARB is definitely one to watch closely in the upcoming altseason.
TIA Swing Long Idea - Celestia Altcoin LongTIA was one of the best-performing assets during the 2023-2024 altcoin run. As a leader in modular blockchain technology, I find its fundamentals very strong. I’ve been holding a significant number of TIA spot positions since 2023."
Technical Analysis:
The price has been relatively weak over the past few months. However, starting from September 2024, we saw an upward movement, creating a weekly bullish structure. The price broke the bearish trendline and closed above it. After deviating from the trendline, it retraced to the daily demand zone below, found support, and is currently holding above the trendline.
The price appears to be in an accumulation phase, lagging behind the upward movement of other coins. Despite this, I like the current levels and have opened a small position here.
Note: If Bitcoin retraces sharply, it could trigger the stop loss and take me out of the trade. To manage this risk, I will monitor the daily close below my stop-loss level before fully exiting.
SL: $3.60
TP1: $7.60
TP2: $11.90
TP3: $15.55
BTC URGENT UPDATE
It will be double top and correction on Wednesday
I aspect that approximately 10:00 (utc +0) Wednesay 27 November
and after a correction peope sell all of alts and Friday will pump hard altcoins.
It is a game from whales bro watch out ..!!!!
P*lease leave a likle and comment .
Cheers bro
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$BTC Analysis update: What's Next ?** CRYPTOCAP:BTC Analysis: What's Next?**
As you can see, CRYPTOCAP:BTC has completed its previous consolidation phase, which lasted six months. The recent *Trump election pump* coincided with the end of that phase, leading to a new, massive parabolic rally.
However, signs are emerging that the market is overheating:
- **RSI**: Indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a correction is due.
- **MACD**: Overheated and also signaling an impending correction.
On a **weekly timeframe**, history tells us that similar situations have resulted in sideways movement for about six months, with a 30–40% downside, before the next major rally begins.
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### Will This Trigger an Altseason?
Most likely, yes. During these cooling-off periods, investors often turn their attention to altcoins, which tend to be more active and engaging during such times.
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### MACD Insights
By counting the bars on the MACD, it looks like we might have **two more weeks of upward movement** before an EMA crossover signals the start of consolidation.
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### Looking Ahead
The next major pump could occur around **May**. Let’s see how this unfolds.
**Remember:** Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
When is the best time to buy Altcoins?The short answer is... Now, this year into early next year.
Although I would expect a lot of similarities this market cycle, I would also expect some differences.
So let's start with the yellow diagonal line with the up trend. This line was originally drawn through the BTC price action. Look at how it actually works perfectly with the TOTAL3, PERFECT!! So, according this chart the alt cycle big moves won't come until 2024 around the September time frame.
If we pay attention we will notice a separation From the the BTC market cap to the TOATL3 market cap that opens up during the bear market. We can also see it also mimics the bitcoin market cap until it finally closes the gap in the final stage. Solid yellow line is the BTC market cap & the candles are the TOTAL3.
The bars between moves
88 BARS is from top to top
57 BARS is from top to the start of the final wave (double bottom)
36 Bars is from when it breaks the up trend to
Not market on chart.
62 bars from the breakdown of the trend line to breakthrough back above it would but it in early February of 2025, pretty much right on schedule.
This chart is on the 2 time frame so each bar equals 2 weeks..
The indicators below are TDI and RCI 3LINES.
Here is where some of the differences might come in to play.
we'll look at the TDI first. I want you to keep in mind that I have zoomed in this indicator to show the moves more clearly. In 2019 the RED line (fast moving line) made a fairly big move up and broke through the top of the channel. It then dropped below the middle line (Yellow) and went sideways until it's next move again piercing the top of the channel although not as high into the inevitable
COVID Crash. Comparing to this bear market the TOTAL3 has made a move off the assumed bottom but it wasn't as strong as the move in 2019 as shown by RED line. Also this time the RED line seems to have found support on top of the Yellow line showing more strength in the correction phase. If it does n=hold I would expect the next move to be higher than the initial one which would be different from the last bear market. I also think this will continue all the way up.
RCI 3LINES RED FAST / BLUE 2ND FASTEST / GREEN SLOW
The all important Blue line has crossed up on the green line. Once the red line turns back up, the move will follow.
All in all it is good time to start to accumulating your altcoins of choice. Keep in mind although they do move together for the most part, they all have they own cycles as well.
Thank for looking. Let me know what you think down below.
WeAreSat0shi
XLM/USDT Secondary trend. 14 01 2024Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Local trend.
After breaking (breaking) the resistance of the descending wedge (trend), a sidewall is formed (accumulation zone with 3 local zones).
On the linear this “sawing” looks like this.
Local trading situation (reversal zone now).
To understand this zone more clearly, see the old ideas that are relevant now - the primary and secondary trends (links to the ideas below).
Primary trend (publication March 2022)
XLM/USD Primary Trend. Time frame 1 week. Squeeze channel
Secondary Trend (publication 06 2022) Without a link in a search engine, the site is not searchable because the publication is not public previously.
XLM/USDT Secondary Trend. Wedge
Altcoin Market Signaling Potential Bullish Run to $1 TrillionTotal Alt Coins Market Cap analysis update
After a significant upward movement in the market cap, consolidation within a descending channel or flag suggests a period of profit-taking and market indecision, though the overall structure remains bullish. The market is approaching the upper resistance of the flag, signaling the potential for a breakout. Once the breakout is confirmed, a bullish move can be expected. Based on historical price action and technical patterns, the next major target post-breakout could be around $1 trillion before end of 2024.
POLKADOT, TIME TO LEAVE THE HELLAltcoin Time: Polkadot Bullish Swing Trading
Polkadot is showing several bullish signals:
PML being disrespected
PWL being disrespected
PWH being disrespected
PDL being disrespected
PDH being disrespected
Daily Bullish FVG being respected
4H Bullish FVG being respected
4H Swing Low being disrespected
Bearish Argument:
4H Swing High is being respected
Altseason seems to be brewing, but as day or swing traders, we must remain cautious about short-term movements. Ignore the noise on social media and rely on your analysis and experience.
Risk management is everything. If you risk more than you can afford to lose, you’ll end up emotionally drained. Protect your mindset by applying proper risk management techniques.
Risk-to-Reward (RR): 5.2
Why people losing there money even in the bull market?In a bull market, where prices are generally rising and optimism prevails, it’s easy to assume making money is straightforward. However, many people still lose money due to the following reasons:
1. Chasing Hype
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Investors buy at elevated prices because they don’t want to miss the rally, only to see prices correct.
Overconfidence in speculative assets: Buying trendy stocks or assets without proper research often leads to losses when the bubble bursts.
2. Lack of a Strategy
No exit plan: Many investors fail to take profits, thinking prices will keep going up indefinitely. When the market dips, they lose their gains.
Short-term mentality: Impulsive decisions without long-term goals can result in buying high and selling low.
3. Over-Leverage
Using borrowed money to invest amplifies losses if the market doesn’t perform as expected. When the market dips, leveraged investors are forced to sell to cover their debts.
4. Ignoring Fundamentals
Many buy overvalued stocks or assets without considering whether the price reflects the company's actual worth.
Following the crowd often leads to investing in overpriced or low-quality assets.
5. Emotional Trading
Fear and greed dominate decisions. For example, panic selling during minor corrections or buying excessively due to market euphoria.
6. Overtrading
Constantly trying to time the market or moving between assets leads to transaction fees and poor timing.
7. Falling for Scams
Bull markets often attract scams, like pump-and-dump schemes, fraudulent projects, or overly hyped Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).
8. Holding Through the Peak
Some investors fail to recognize when the bull market is near its end and hold onto assets through the subsequent downturn.
Even in a bull market, discipline, research, and a clear strategy are essential to avoid costly mistakes.
Best Regards 🎯
Alt Season Does Not Start Until End of 2025As the logarithmic chart indicates, BTC follows a 4 year pattern with typical downward trends every 4 years.
Over time there has been a theories presented as to why this happens:
One can conjecture, this is due to tightening monetary conditions that present every four years as central banks around the world tighten supply. Some research that goes to show evidence in this direction can be found here.
Others have indicated this is due to the so-called Bitcoin halving phenomenon, as supply tightens every four or so years.
If the chart is of any evidence, it is evidence of the former, than the later.
How does this relate to alt coins?
Another phenomenon that highly correlates with the 4 year pattern is alt-coin-bitcoin market cap dominance charts .
Alt coin market cap dominance do better when BTC prices are going down, as opposed to when they are going up.
We can imagine this as follows: BTC price goes up in loose monetary conditions, and BTC price goes down in tight monetary conditions, however, BTC being more liquid than alt coins generally goes down faster than alt coins during times of deleveraging.
So, we can hold the opposite to be true as well - BTC, being more liquid will dominate the next year, until tighter monetary conditions arrive, at which point probably some alt coins will do better.
Altseason Starts SoonThe Chart above show Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) over time, with highlighted patterns and cycles that may be tied to Bitcoin halvings and market trends. Here’s my analysis based on the chart's structure:
Key Observations:
Repeated Patterns:
The chart highlights similar phases of Bitcoin dominance decline across three separate cycles, lasting roughly 231 days.
Each phase seems to correspond to a bearish period for Bitcoin dominance, where altcoins gain relative strength.
Halving Impact:
Vertical lines mark Bitcoin halving dates (green lines), which historically have a significant impact on the crypto market.
Following halvings, BTC dominance often rises as Bitcoin leads the market in initial rallies.
Projection:
The chart projects a decline in dominance after the current rally, extending into mid-to-late 2024.
A potential drop to ~44%-46% dominance is outlined, indicating a possible altcoin season or broader market rotation.
Support and Resistance:
The chart highlights a resistance zone around 62% dominance, which Bitcoin dominance seems to have tested recently.
A bearish breakout is suggested, aligning with a downward trend in the future.
Possible Interpretation:
Short-Term View: Bitcoin dominance might continue upward for a while but could face resistance near 60%-62%. If this area holds, a reversal could lead to dominance declining, benefiting altcoins.
Medium-Term View: If the projection holds, BTC dominance could see a prolonged decline lasting nearly a year, dropping below 50%. This scenario typically coincides with altcoin seasons where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in relative gains.
Risk Factors:Bitcoin dominance does not always drop due to bullish altcoins; it can also decline during a market-wide sell-off where Bitcoin loses less than altcoins. Macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and adoption rates could alter the outcome.
KAVAUSDT Reversal Confirmed!KAVUSDT Technical ANlsysis update
SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:KAVA price has formed a triangle pattern on the daily chart at the bottom. The price has now broken the triangle resistance line and is trading above the 100 EMA on the daily chart. We can expect a strong bullish move from the current level. A sustained move above this level could signal further upside potential.
In the weekly chart, KAVA price is bouncing from the 2020 support level and trading within a falling wedge pattern