Altseason
Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical BreakdownBitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical Breakdown
This chart examines Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle behaviour, focusing on the repeating market structure observed across the last three cycles: Bull Market → Bear Market → Accumulation/Recovery → Halving → Expansion.
Key Observations:
🔹 Cycle Timing Consistency
Each of the past three cycles has shown a consistent duration between the halving and the final bull market peak—typically between 500–550 days. Based on that timing, the current cycle suggests we are still ~100 days away from a potential macro top.
🔹 Post-Halving Correction is Expected
Corrections shortly after the halving have historically marked mid-cycle retracements, not macro tops. The current pullback is structurally aligned with the 2017 and 2021 expansions, where Bitcoin consolidated before pushing to final highs.
🔹 Altcoin Market Segments Lagging
TOTAL2 (Total Market Cap excluding BTC)
TOTAL3 (Excluding BTC & ETH)
OTHERS (Altcoins excluding top 10 by market cap)
All remain below their prior cycle all-time highs, which historically occurs before the full market cycle concludes. These segments often accelerate after BTC has established dominance, typically in the later stages of the bull market.
🔹 USDT Dominance Suggests More Upside
USDT.D is still trending down, which historically reflects increasing risk appetite and capital rotation into crypto assets. Prior cycle tops have aligned with much lower dominance levels, indicating further downside risk for USDT.D, and potential upside for crypto markets.
Conclusion:
Despite short-term volatility, the technical structure across Bitcoin and broader market indicators suggests the cycle remains in its expansion phase. Timing models, altcoin lag, and dominance signals all point to further upside potential before a full cycle peak is in.
1W:
1M:
HolderStat┆ADAUSD BULLISH BOUNCEBYBIT:ADAUSDT is squeezing out of its falling-channel floor, carving a clean higher-low right above 0.66. That move flips a month-long consolidation into a fresh trend-restart signal. A steady bid on top of the diagonal keeps the bias pointing north-east; reclaiming 0.71 unlocks the 0.77 target where the upper megaphone meets prior supply. Break that and the “new-highs” narrative returns to center stage.
Alt Season: When’s the Big Boom?TOTALE100 refers to small caps or the total market capitalization of the top 100 cryptocurrencies , excluding stablecoins. It is part of the CRYPTOCAP series.
It measures the total combined market cap (price × circulating supply) of the top 100 crypto assets by market cap.
Useful for:
* Gauging overall market strength or weakness.
* Spotting macro-level trends or capital inflows/outflows into the crypto sector.
Technical Outlook:
On the weekly chart, the price is facing rejection at 16B, forming a triple-top distribution pattern.
For positioning in small caps, we should wait for a price pullback to the key support zone between 5B and 3B.
SPX6900: From base building to history making.Price is fractal, right? RIGHT?!
Before the recent run, SPX6900 printed almost the same setup.
See it yourself....
Now it’s playing that over-under dance near ATH (#2). Classic. Build the base, shake the tourists.
Then comes the move... THE move.
First stop: $10.
After that, a quick push into the $50-70 zone.
Once the weak hands get flushed, $100 becomes the next base.
Long term? Way higher.
If the community keeps growing.
If people stay tired of the same rigged game.
This could and probably will make history....
Like Murad says: stop trading. Believe in something.
We’re still SO early.
This is just a "Classical charting style fractal analysis..." but the reality is that... there is no Chart. ...
BTC.D+ETH.D+USDT.D+USDC.D InsightsAn interesting chart with BSL still to take and pushing for it.
If you study the time cycle of last cycles altcoin season you will see that it occurred after this chart took the range highs and BSL and then distributed from there to new lows
I believe we are seeing the same scenario setting up in this chart and data with it pushing to the BSL and range highs into supply, before a possible reversal bearish kicking off the final altcoin cycle and season.
We shall see... One to add to your watchlist!
ETH/BTC - Last Drawdown Before Rally Upwards!After a long downward road, CRYPTOCAP:ETH / CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart seems to be finally ready to move upwards! The first signs of strength were already shown!
(1) The chart bottomed at the 0.019₿ point, made a big pump from there and now consolidating in the tight horizontal range between 0.023₿ - 0.025₿.
(1-2) I expect to see a one final shakeout down to 0.022₿ support to trigger high-leveraged positions on altcoins (possible -5% - 20% pullback, especially on weak altcoins that didn't show any strength during the past week) .
(2-3-4) Then CRYPTOCAP:ETH can safely ride up towards 0.032₿ zone, from where I expect a local ABC correction to start. More likely we will spend the rest of summer in the 0.028₿ - 0.033₿ range.
(4-5) After that, the final wave towards 0.038₿ should happen during Autumn Season (autumn is typically a bullish time for crypto, based on the previous couple of years) .
Position yourself accordingly. This year must provide a lot of opportunities to earn not only on Ethereum, but on Altcoins as well.
Altcoins: Warning. Check this chart!On the weekly timeframe, I’ve noticed a striking similarity between the 2021 cycle and the current one.
Take a close look at the chart—once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
Are we at the same point we were in March 2022?
The MACD is nearly identical
The RSI mirrors the same pattern
The Vortex Indicator stands at a critical crossroad
The only difference: trading volume is significantly higher
This setup resembles a potential triple top formation. If it confirms, it could completely contradict the bullish forecast I’ve held for months—or it might just be a fakeout.
We're at a decision point for altcoins: either the altseason kicks off in September and invalidates this bearish pattern, or we're headed toward a dot-com-style crash for most altcoins—excluding the top 10.
Keep a close watch on $OTHERS. History tends to repeat—let’s hope not this time.
DYOR
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$INJ to re-enter my buy zone? $11.12 must hold!Altcoins are experiencing another pullback.
CRYPTOCAP:INJ had a solid pump recently, but it’s now facing a significant drop.
This could be a good buying opportunity — assuming we’re not entering a bear market.
Key level: $11.12 must hold.
If it breaks, the next major support is around $9.10.
While the macro trend remains bullish, this retracement is concerning.
Set your stop losses accordingly.
DYOR.
#INJ #Altcoins #CryptoTrading #MarketUpdate #CryptoAlert #BuyTheDip #DYOR