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Altseason

BTC & ALTCOINSIn this chart we can see Bitcoin historical Highs , lows , halving years (green->green) and halvings ... we can see some patterns here , not price patterns but sessionality patterns .. for example .. strong probabilty next btc HIGH will be in November/December this year , or we can also see on chart of BTC.D .. we are close to date when BTC.D breaks and fall as much as alts shine .. But all of this was history what about today ? What if , in this one cycle is something different , for example players ... Old good BTC and Crypto OG players now have less power as manipulators , we have some guys from wallstreet also here , Trump and much more .. Macroeconomic was totaly changed ... so what do you think guys ?
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by STLMfx
3
Altcoins potential to start rally!As pointer before by others, Altcoins may be about to start their bullish rally. The 3 charts indicate: BTC price history, BTC dominance (%) Altcoin dominance ( minus ETH, BTC, in %) What we see in the chart are 2 possible escenarios: 1- BTC has reached top and is about to drop, like in 2016, leading to the rise in dominance of altcoins. 2- BTC has not reached top, but the incoming BTC short rally will come together with a bigger rally (in relative terms) for the alcoin market. In other words, the BTC price action will be parasited by a capital flip to altcoins. Keep in mind always may happen a 3rd scenario, risk is always present: 3-BTC has reached its top and will start bear market, plus Altcoins will never see a true bullish market from now on. This is particularly probable, since politics and economics in US has turned in favor of BTC mainly, leaving "most" of the altcoin market as not recognized can be a very bad thing for investor, who are eager to reduce the huge risk this crypto market implies. DISCLAIMER: Remember, all of this is speculation of my own, based on others analysis. You are responsible for doing your own research, and this is not a financial advice. This only represents my sentiment and opinion in the market. I do hold several crypto-curriencies, including BTC. You are responsible for your own loses. Happy trading ! :)
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
by thor08
t-bonds x alt season.t-bonds are primed for lift-off. we just witnessed the largest decline in the history of the treasury. since march 2020, t-bonds have looked like they’re in a correction. most are calling it five waves down, signaling a deeper bear market. but they’re seeing the surface, not the structure. i'm building a case that says otherwise. the five-wave drop from all-time highs? that wasn’t the start of the bear market. it was the end of wave c in an expanded flat that began in 2016. most think the t-bond bear market started in 2020. i’m saying it started in 2016,,, and if i’m right, it just ended. --- as the market prices-in future interest rate cuts, fueled by artificial suppression of gas prices and inflation stabilisation, t-bond values will climb throughout this next year. normally, stocks and bonds move inverse to each other. not this time. this time, they move together. 1:1. why? because the us dollar is about to get wrecked. quantitative easing is coming back. liquidity will expand. the global liquidity index will rise. the way we make that happen is by crushing the dxy. --- tldr; - rate cuts incoming - making t-bonds go up - quantitative easing - nukes the dxy - making stocks go up - risk-on environment returns - risk assets go parabolic - alt season is triggered. 🌙
CBOT:ZB1!
by notoriousbids
1
Capitulation or the Next Big Rotation: How to Spot Alt SeasonIf you're wondering, "Wen Alt Season?", you are in good company. Even Bitcoin Maxis recognize the fact that Alt Season creates opportunities for big gains. As we try to read the tea leaves and gain insight about developing trends we always look at historical data, but it's important to recognize when market dynamics are changing. In this analysis, I took a deep dive into the dynamic relationship between BTC price relative to BTC Dominance (BTC.D), TOTAL3 (Crypto Market Cap Excluding BTC & ETH), and USDT Dominance (USDT.D). With a little help from AI, I looked all the way back to 2017 when the TOTAL3 index was created, and compared the dynamic relationship between the different cohorts mentioned above to gain insight about how we used to be able to determine when Alt Season was developing between 2017 - early 2024, vs how things appear to be developing in this cycle. Here's what I discovered: 1. BTC.D vs. TOTAL3: The Alt Season Divergence Signal The traditional Alt Season Indicator has been the divergence between BTC.D and TOTAL3: BTC.D falling while TOTAL3 rises → Capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins, a strong sign of Alt Season. BTC.D rising while TOTAL3 declines → Bitcoin dominance increases, often during BTC-led bull runs or altcoin capitulation. BTC.D and TOTAL3 rising together → Broad market growth with Bitcoin leading. BTC.D and TOTAL3 falling together → Market-wide risk-off sentiment, typically during strong BTC sell-offs. 2017-2021 Cycle (Pre-Maturity Phase) The relationship was highly cyclical, with clear boom-and-bust rotations. Late 2017 Alt Season: BTC.D dropped dramatically as TOTAL3 skyrocketed. This was the classic alt season fueled by ICOs, and it was very easy to see it developing. 2018-2019 Bear Market: BTC.D rebounded aggressively as altcoins collapsed. TOTAL3 erased nearly all gains. 2020-2021 DeFi/NFT Boom: Another clear BTC.D vs. TOTAL3 divergence was seen in mid-to-late 2020 when DeFi and NFT narratives caused altcoins to rally independently of BTC. 2022-Present Cycle (Maturing Market) As institutional money, and more importantly, seasoned institutional fund managers, have started scaling into the crypto market, we are seeing changes in the dynamic relationship between the cohorts that indicates that the market is maturing. The divergence signal has weakened slightly because of increasing institutional adoption of BTC and ETH. TOTAL3 has had a harder time breaking away from Bitcoin trends, meaning Alt Seasons are more dependent on BTC stability rather than independent surges. Late 2022-Present: Since bottoming out around the FTX crash in November 2022Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has been on an uptrend, showing that capital is concentrating in BTC, with fewer dramatic rotations into altcoins. TOTAL3 is still climbing, but not as aggressively as in past cycles relative to BTC.D. ✅ Key Takeaway: 1. Altcoin markets no longer break away from BTC as sharply as before. Alt Seasons still exist but require a stable or slightly declining BTC.D, whereas before, a sharp BTC.D decline almost guaranteed an altcoin explosion. 2. The Role of USDT.D in Spotting Alt Seasons USDT.D (Tether Dominance) tracks the percentage of the total crypto market cap held in USDT stablecoins. Historically: High USDT.D (rising) → Traders moving into stablecoins, risk-off sentiment. Low USDT.D (declining) → Traders deploying stablecoin capital into BTC and altcoins, risk-on sentiment. 2017-2021: USDT.D as a Contrarian Alt Season Signal A spike in USDT.D was often a precursor to an Alt Season because smart money used USDT to accumulate altcoins at market bottoms. When USDT.D dropped, TOTAL3 rose, showing that liquidity was moving from stablecoins into alts. 2022-Present: USDT.D as a Risk Appetite Gauge USDT.D no longer functions as a leading indicator for Alt Season the way it did before. Instead, it serves as a confirmation signal: If BTC.D is dropping and TOTAL3 is rising, but USDT.D remains high → Alt Season is weak or delayed. If BTC.D is dropping, TOTAL3 is rising, and USDT.D is falling → Strong altcoin rally confirmation. ✅ Key Takeaway: USDT.D used to be a contrarian indicator for alt accumulation (spikes meant smart money was waiting). Now, USDT.D is better used as a confirmation signal to assess if liquidity is actually flowing into alts or if traders are staying in stablecoins. Best Indicators for Identifying an Alt Season Given the changing nature of the crypto market, the best indicators for spotting an Alt Season now are: 1️⃣ Primary Indicator: BTC.D vs. TOTAL3 Divergence Most reliable leading signal for Alt Season. Ideal scenario: BTC.D trending lower while TOTAL3 rises → Altcoins outperform BTC. 2️⃣ Secondary Indicator: USDT.D Declining Confirms that capital is leaving stablecoins and being deployed into altcoins. Ideal scenario: USDT.D dropping while TOTAL3 rises → Stronger altcoin rally. 3️⃣ Additional Market Conditions to Watch: Bitcoin stability: If BTC is too volatile, capital stays in BTC or stablecoins, limiting Alt Season potential. ETH performance: A strong ETH/BTC pair often foreshadows broader altcoin strength. ✅ Current 2025 Outlook for Alt Season: BTC.D has recently spiked well above 60%, meaning Bitcoin remains dominant, however, it has rolled off those recent highs and is searching for support. TOTAL3 rose sharply after election day (Nov 5th) and many alts realize triple digit gains, but BTC.D and Bitcoin price rose with it. There simply was no divergence between BTC.D and TOTAL3 which made it a market wide rally rather than what most consider a classic Alt Season scenario. We are currently seeing a divergence where BTC.D has spiked and TOTAL3 has fallen sharply since mid-January 2025, but just as BTC.D is searching for support, so is TOTAL3. This is an indication that altcoins may be capitulating. While that may not point to an Alt Season in the classic sense, it does indicate that altcoin traders should be looking for setups because the vast majority of altcoins endured major corrections (40% - 70%) after the post election rally, and many of those have already retested support or are the process of doing so → Suggests altcoin capitulation that could develop into something more, but the spike in BTC.D is a clear sign that this is not Alt Season yet. We must wait to see if this bounce from TOTAL3 ends up confirming as support and look for the divergence between TOTAL3 and BTC.D to develop. The fact that USDT.D remains somewhat elevated → Liquidity isn’t fully deployed into alts yet, however, similar to BTC.D, it too has rolled off of it's highs and seems to be moving back towards it's recent consolidation range. 📌 Conclusion: If support for TOTAL3 holds at this level and the index moves higher, that would be an indication that Altcoin season conditions are developing. This clearly is NOT confirmed yet. Watch for BTC.D and USDT.D both to decline further for a stronger rotation into alts. Final Summary Alt Season indicators have evolved since 2017. BTC.D vs. TOTAL3 divergence remains the best signal, but rotations are less extreme than in prior cycles. USDT.D’s role has changed. Used to be a leading indicator (spikes meant accumulation) Now, it serves as a confirmation signal (declining USDT.D validates altcoin strength). Current Market Setup (2025) At the time of writing BTC.D is declining, but remains above 61%, meaning Bitcoin is still dominant, however, BTC price is sliding back in search of support. TOTAL3 bounced briefly, but is once again searching for support USDT.D just started climbing again, suggesting caution. The fact that BTC price and TOTAL3 are declining simultaneously is a sign that money is rotating into stable coins, but it's important to note that this always resolves itself after support tests are complete and money rotates back into BTC and altcoins. While this gives us no evidence that we are on the cusp of an Alt Season, we may be seeing retests of support from the December capitulation developing, or possibly even a deeper capitulation for some coins before we see a rebound. If you are inclined to take advantage of the opportunities that are developing, now is the time to identify the assets and the price targets that meet your criteria. With the growing institutional influence on the market, it may be time to stop sh!tcoining and turn your focus to altcoins with stronger fundamentals with a dollar cost averaging strategy to build your position. A full-fledged Alt Season will requires a further drop in BTC.D and USDT.D alongside a divergent spike from TOTAL3. 🔎 Key Levels to Watch for Alt Season Confirmation: ✅ BTC.D breaking below 58% (used to be 50%) ✅ TOTAL3 accelerating above $1 Trillion ✅ USDT.D dropping below 3.5% 🚀 If these conditions align, we could see the strongest Alt Season since 2021. Until they do, focus on quality. Not financial advice.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by kapro
6
How to Know When Alt-Season Is Here?Hello, Traders! If you've been in crypto long enough, you’ve probably heard the term alt-season — that exciting period when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC), and the market sees massive rallies across smaller assets. But how do you know when an alt-season is about to begin? There are key alt-season indicators that traders watch to spot opportunities before the big moves happen. Let’s break down what alt-season is, how to identify it, and what signs indicate that a market-wide altcoin rally is about to start. 👇🏻 What Is Alt-Season? Alt-season, short for altcoin season, is a market cycle when altcoins (any cryptocurrency that isn’t Bitcoin) outperform Bitcoin and experience rapid price increases. During alt-season, traders shift their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins, leading to: Higher Altcoin Dominance. Increased Liquidity in Smaller-Cap Coins. Massive Rallies in Speculative Assets. Alt-season doesn’t happen randomly; it follows specific market conditions and signals that traders can identify early. Key Indicators That Alt-Season Is Coming 1. Bitcoin Dominance Declines One of the strongest alt-season indicators is the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D). This metric measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the entire crypto market. When bitcoin dominance falls, it signals that traders are moving capital into altcoins. If BTC dominance breaks a long-term support level, it often marks the beginning of alt-season. 2. Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin Ethereum (ETH) is the largest altcoin, and its performance typically sets the tone for the broader altcoin market. If ETH/BTC starts trending upward, it’s a strong sign that alt-season could be near. Ethereum often leads the first wave of altcoin breakouts, followed by mid-cap and low-cap coins. 3. Altcoin Market Cap Growth Tracking altcoins' total market cap (MCAP) (excluding Bitcoin) can indicate early alt-season signals. When the altcoin market cap increases while Bitcoin remains stable or declines, it shows capital rotation into altcoins. A sudden spike in the altcoin market cap, especially with volume, indicates growing investor interest. 4. Surge in Crypto Airdrops and ICOs New projects launch aggressively during alt-season, and crypto airdrops become more frequent. If you start seeing airdrop crypto promotions everywhere, it may be a sign that the market is heating up. Many traders hunt for free airdrop crypto opportunities during alt-seasons to get early exposure to new tokens. 5. Social Media and Retail Hype Increases Retail traders often drive the biggest altcoin rallies. Some signs that alt-season is underway: Crypto influencers and X (formerly known as Twitter) threads constantly mention that “alt-season is here.” Crypto airdrops are a trend on social media, with traders looking for ways to get airdrop crypto opportunities. Telegram and Discord groups have become highly active, discussing the “next 100x altcoins.” Final Thoughts The alt-season is one of the most exciting periods in crypto trading. Recognizing the right alt-season indicators can help you enter early, ride the trend, and exit before the hype fades. So, traders, do you think we’re nearing the next alt-season? What’s your go-to strategy during altcoin rallies? Let’s discuss this in the comments!
Education
by WhiteBIT
$OTHERS are bleeding, but it will stop soon! Be prepared!Altcoins are bleeding heavily. In my previous analysis, I identified the reversal and the initial bounce that led to the small altseason in December 2024. However, it was rejected twice, forming a double top, and now this pattern is playing out. I understand the frustration, but things cannot keep going down forever. I’ve marked the possible resistance levels with green lines. The MACD is still strongly bearish, but we’re nearing the end of this trend. A couple more weeks may be needed for a bullish MACD crossover. The RSI supports this outlook, showing we’re close to the bottom. A little more patience, and recovery will begin. From this chart, I can confidently say that accumulating now is likely to pay off when the bounce occurs. Some coins are looking very cheap right now: CRYPTOCAP:PEPE , CRYPTOCAP:INJ , BME:UNI , SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:BONK , SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:FLOKI , CRYPTOCAP:SUI , etc. The next mini altseason is approaching, and you could potentially see x2 or more gains by holding these coins at their current prices. Another leg down is possible, so be prepared to buy the dip! DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
by CryptoNikkoid
4
ALTCOINS testing the 1W MA200. Is the Altseason alive?The Crypto Total Market Cap excluding the top 10 coins hit this week the 1W MA200 for the first time since the week of the U.S. elections in early November. Last time that was a huge buy entry. One more rebound here will be in our perspective the decisive one to start the usual Altseason of the last year of each Cycle. A +931.44% rise as in the last Cycle would put the market over 2 Trillion in capitalization and won't even be on the top of the 7 year Channel Up. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by InvestingScope
3
$BTC MACD on weekly show a bearish trend. Read.You can see on the chart that in May 2024 I issued a warning, and look at what happened over the next five months. The same pattern is repeating now, and there’s a high probability we’ll see a similar result. Back in May 2024, the usual crowd—MMCrypto, That Martini Guy, Ash, Crypto Rover, etc.—were all saying things like, “We’re going to 110k,” “To the moon,” or “A huge bullish breakout is coming.” What did we actually get? Five months of consolidation and an -80% drop for most altcoins. So consider this a warning. The MACD on the weekly chart is a reliable indicator of the trend. Exchanges aren’t going to go against the trend. Even if there’s a ton of liquidity at 107k, they won’t risk buying billions worth of Bitcoin just to get wrecked by the prevailing trend and be forced to sell at a lower price than they purchased. Those pointing to the liquidity map at 107k are missing the point. Exchanges take the easier path. Going from 97k to 107k is plausible in an uptrend, but in a downtrend? No chance. What to Expect Now? Since this chart is on the weekly timeframe, there will be daily bounces. Some altcoins may see 10-20% gains if you time the bottom and top correctly. However, for holders, this is not a good time to hold. Is Invalidation Possible? Yes, but consider this: they’ve tried to break the trend five times and failed. The chance of a reversal now is about 1 in 9. It’s possible, but unlikely. Key Support Levels Support levels to watch are 95k, 91k, 85k, and 70k. While we might not drop as low as 70k, it’s better to be prepared. What’s Next? By May 2025, we’ll likely reach the end of this bearish trend, followed by a one-month altseason and a big BTC pump. However, starting in July 2025, we’re likely to face another five months of bearish consolidation. The introduction of ETFs has shifted the crypto cycle into a new paradigm of five months of consolidation followed by one month of pumping. As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
by CryptoNikkoid
11
Ethereum Analysis – Inverse Head and Shoulders Formationhello guys! Pattern Formation: The chart illustrates a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is a well-known reversal signal indicating a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. The structure includes: Left Shoulder – A price decline followed by a minor recovery. Head – A deeper price drop, marking the lowest point. Right Shoulder – A higher low compared to the head, signaling to weaken bearish momentum. Key Technical Levels: Support Area (~$2,175): The price has bounced off this key level multiple times, reinforcing its strength. Neckline (~$3,100 - $3,200): A breakout above this level would confirm the bullish pattern. Target Projection: Based on the height of the pattern, a successful breakout could lead ETH to $4,000+. Bullish Confirmation: If ETH breaks and closes above $3,100-$3,200, it would confirm the breakout, leading to further upside. Volume confirmation is crucial – a spike in buying pressure would strengthen the breakout signal. Bearish Scenario: If ETH fails to break the neckline, it could retest the support area at $2,400-$2,600 before another attempt. A breakdown below the right shoulder ($2,400) would invalidate the bullish setup. Conclusion: Bullish Bias: The pattern suggests an upcoming rally if ETH surpasses the neckline. Key Levels to Watch: $3,100 resistance and $2,600 support. Next Target: If the breakout occurs, a move toward $4,000 is likely.
Long
by melikatrader94
15
BTC dominance .... Bitcoin: The King, But Not Everything!Crypto is More Than Just Bitcoin; Just Like Automobiles Are More Than One Brand! In the world of digital currencies, many newcomers have only heard of "Bitcoin" and assume that the entire crypto market revolves around it. However, just as the automobile industry is not limited to a single brand, the crypto world is also filled with innovative projects and diverse digital assets, each with its own unique applications and features. Bitcoin: The King, But Not Everything! Bitcoin is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. It is considered digital gold and serves as a store of value. But that's not the whole story! If we compare Bitcoin to brands like "Ferrari" or "Lamborghini," which are luxurious and powerful, other cryptocurrencies can be likened to different car brands, each with its own unique functionalities and purposes. Altcoins: The Major Players in the Crypto World Ethereum (ETH): If Bitcoin is Ferrari, Ethereum is like Tesla—a platform that has paved a new path in blockchain technology. Smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) run on its network. Polkadot (DOT): Polkadot is like a versatile car, such as the BMW X5, allowing interoperability between different blockchain networks and enhancing cross-chain communication. Chainlink (LINK): Chainlink is akin to a secure and smart car like Volvo, acting as an oracle in the blockchain space, connecting real-world data to smart contracts. Solana (SOL): This cryptocurrency is like a sports car, such as Porsche—fast, scalable, and with low fees, making it highly popular among developers. Cardano (ADA): Cardano can be compared to Toyota or Honda—stable, secure, and equipped with innovative technologies aiming to solve blockchain scalability issues. Is Altseason Coming? Altseason is a term referring to a period in the crypto market where altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) experience significant growth. This typically happens after Bitcoin stabilizes or when investors feel that Bitcoin has reached a short-term price peak. Some signs of an approaching altseason include: Bitcoin dominance rising and then declining (indicating a shift of capital from Bitcoin to altcoins) Explosive growth in certain altcoins, signaling increased investor interest in alternative projects Improved macroeconomic conditions and increased liquidity in the market Just as the automotive world is not dominated by a single brand, the crypto market extends beyond Bitcoin. Major projects like Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Polkadot, Chainlink, and many others offer diverse use cases worth exploring and investing in. Given current market indicators, we may soon witness a powerful altseason where altcoins experience substantial growth. Therefore, it's essential to look beyond Bitcoin and view the market from a broader perspective! good luck
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by mehdi_kb
6
DOMINANCE - the manipulation!The weekly chart clearly shows a confirmed breakdown of the rising wedge pattern. Everyone was waiting for a retest to buy in, expecting dominance to drop and altcoins to rally—but that never happened. Why? Because when everyone expects a move, the market does the opposite. What actually happened? -The market shocked everyone with a parabolic dominance surge to 64%. -Over $182 billion was drained from the market in just two days. -Altcoins suffered a brutal crash, with some dropping over 50%. -Most assets hit extreme lows, forcing mass panic selling at heavy losses—which we predicted a week in advance. -A sharp altcoin rebound happened the same day, while dominance dropped from 64% to 61%, stabilizing at this level. What’s next? The rising wedge pattern is still in play, but its targets won’t be hit without manipulation. I expect heavy market manipulation in the coming days, with dominance fluctuating between 60% and 63%, designed to drain traders’ portfolios—especially futures traders. The expected price action is outlined in this chart. Take a look, and you'll clearly see how manipulation operates in this market. Best regards Ceciliones🎯
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ceciliones
22
Bitcoin Dominance: Elliott Wave and Harmonics Combo (Part 2)MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN Dominance ( #BTC.D / CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) indeed started the rise I predicted back in late '22. CRYPTOCAP:BTC rose to the limits, exceeding the 100K Mark. In #ElliottWave, this is Cycle Wave C (turquoise). Primary Wave ① (white) completed, with the Corrective Primary Wave ②now in play. The Correction will pave the way for Alt Season to commence, so the focus will shift to Alt Coins. #Harmonics are showing #Cypher Patterns, a combo actually, on different degrees. Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D ) Technical Analysis: * Elliott Wave Impulse: Cycle C (turquoise) * Harmonic Patterns: Bullish Cyphers * 88.6% Fibonacci Retracement * Break-Out with Divergence * Leading Diagonal in Primary Wave ① (white) Conclusion: After a last rise, expecting MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN to top-out and start a Larger Correction. Alt Season to start and deliver, based on #BTC losing ground. After this, CRYPTOCAP:BTC to continue ruling, as the one and only #Cryptocurrency.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by EW4X
1
A personalized indicator for Alt SeasonThe behavior of this chart is such that the green line can only block the candles once and the trend line will definitely be broken on the second collision. If this is our assumption, we will notice that in the last few months this green line has been tested for an upward break, from where the price has been reversed. Now if we move towards this line this time, it is very likely and according to its history that this chart will break upwards and altcoins will be heavily pumped.
by M2it2M
13
Bullish DIP: ETH $2530 Before Massive Move to New ATHPrior cycle fractals show that ETH has a macro resistance which lasts multiple years. Upon touch of resistance at the bottom of wedge it will drop more than 30% - before pumping multiple thousands of percent as the flagship coin for alt season. This is probably what will happen with the current dip. The entire crypto market is currently being controlled by this phenomena - a one week 'flippening'. Alts will follow in ETH's lead and the bull market frenzy will truly begin. Not financial advice, for entertainment only.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by D4NKM4CH1N3
3