Amazon
Amazon's Soaring Performance Sparks Investor Interest...Amazon's Soaring Performance Sparks Investor Interest: A Deeper Look at the FAANG Giant's Potential
Amazon, the e-commerce behemoth, has been riding an impressive upward trajectory in the stock market following a highly favorable quarterly update that ignited optimism among investors. With a remarkable revenue of $134.4 billion, showcasing an impressive 11% year-over-year growth, and a substantial leap in diluted earnings per share to $0.65, a noteworthy improvement from the previous year's loss of $0.20, Amazon has not only exceeded expectations but has also sent ripples of excitement through Wall Street. This momentous performance resulted in a notable 10% surge in the stock's value the day following the announcement.
The current landscape finds Amazon basking in robust momentum across its diverse business segments. Yet, amid the excitement, a crucial question emerges: Are Amazon shares a prudent investment choice at this juncture? To make a well-informed decision, investors must meticulously examine several pivotal factors revolving around this prominent FAANG stock.
Within Amazon's performance, two compelling narratives beckon investors' attention. The first narrative centers on the company's exceptional double-digit revenue growth in the preceding quarter – a feat that is particularly remarkable given Amazon's colossal size. This growth serves as a testament to the expansive potential that still lies within the markets Amazon operates in. Furthermore, this robust revenue surge hints at a stabilizing operational environment, bolstered by the overall resilience of the economy characterized by temperate inflation rates and low unemployment. Notably, other tech giants like Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms have similarly surpassed the consensus analyst revenue projections, contributing to the favorable outlook for Amazon.
The second aspect that adds to the allure for investors is Amazon's remarkable surge in profitability. A stark contrast to the $2 billion net loss reported in the same period a year ago, the most recent quarter boasts a substantial profit of $6.8 billion. Emulating its tech counterparts, Amazon adeptly implemented effective cost-cutting strategies, significantly reducing its employee headcount by 27,000 since the close of the previous year. Consequently, the company's operating margin has ascended to 5.7% in Q2, a substantial leap from the 2.7% recorded in the corresponding quarter of the preceding year.
Glimpsing into the future, the positive trajectory continues as Amazon's management forecasts an impressive performance for the ongoing quarter. Anticipated revenue growth ranging from 9% to 13% accompanies an even more striking projection of a 180% surge in operating income at the midpoint. These promising forecasts offer compelling grounds for investors to consider Amazon as a potent contender for their investment endeavors.
Of paramount significance to investors is Amazon's flagship e-commerce operations, which remain a cornerstone of the company's identity and performance. Noteworthy is the notable 5% growth in sales experienced by the company's online stores, marking a substantial improvement compared to the stagnant growth witnessed in Q2 2022. This segment notably contributed to a significant 39% of Amazon's total revenue during the last quarter, underscoring its pivotal role in the company's overarching success.
In the context of the surging interest in artificial intelligence (AI), it comes as no surprise that AI took center stage during the Q2 2023 earnings call. CEO Andy Jassy emphatically emphasized Amazon's unwavering commitment to integrating generative AI applications across all facets of the business to elevate customer experiences.
Amazon Web Services (AWS), a dominant force in the cloud industry, is poised to emerge as a pivotal nexus for AI integration within its offerings. Jassy's emphasis on data as the cornerstone of AI further accentuates Amazon's vantage point, given its vast customer base in the cloud sector, positioning the company as a trailblazer in the AI revolution.
While AWS exhibited a minor deceleration in sales growth at 12% year over year during the last quarter, the impressive 24.2% operating margin underscores the unwavering strength and profitability of AWS within Amazon's multifaceted business portfolio.
As Amazon's potent momentum prevails, numerous factors kindle optimism about the company's future prospects. Reinvigorated revenue growth coupled with a consistent ascent in profits underscores a robust performance spanning all operational segments.
This stellar performance hasn't gone unnoticed by investors, resulting in an astonishing 69% surge in the stock's value in 2023 (as of August 4). Remarkably, even in the midst of this surge, the stock remains attractively priced, trading at a trailing price-to-sales multiple of 2.7 – notably lower than its trailing 10-year average of 3.1. In actuality, excluding the past year, Amazon hasn't exhibited such appealing valuation since 2017.
Positioned as a commanding force that profoundly influences both consumers and businesses on a daily basis, Amazon commands a pivotal role in the market while offering abundant growth potential for the future. In light of these compelling factors, Amazon emerges as an enticing candidate worthy of consideration for inclusion in one's investment portfolio.
Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, KillsFirst, I understand that Amazon had an excellent earnings report, whether analyst estimates were gamed to the downside and it was easy to beat notwithstanding.
What you have to be really careful of right now is the excess greed that abounds in the markets. Greed is the thing that kills accounts the fastest, and when you blow your account, there won't be any use for TradingView anymore, and nobody will be able to have fun until you can save up to reload.
I am not saying any kind of bearish commentary on Amazon, although you should have reservations on this company because a lot of its business model is just to serve as an export faucet for stuff made in the Chinese Communist Party's land.
And you have to be careful with anyone whose business is tightly knit to communist China, because the International Rules Based Order is chattering disaster about "de-risking" from China.
Because the narrative about "Taiwan Invasion" really means that the CCP is close to falling and everyone is thinking about how to take control of that country.
But to take control of China, you need someone Chinese, which means you need a handpicked appointment from the Republic of China who will serve the globalists.
All this, and the 24th year of persecution against Falun Dafa by the CCP's Jiang Zemin faction just completed on July 20. In 1999, Jiang began a full genocide and organ harvesting campaign against 100 million spiritual believers, and it's persisted to this day despite Xi Jinping never participating.
In fact, Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign has been hitting the corrupt officials involved in the persecution ever since he took power in 2012.
Consider that the next time you see the media going off about what a Mao Zedong Xi Jinping is.
Amazon's monthly provides some clarity. The most notable thing is that the 2021-2022 distribution bars during the rest of the market's bull run indicates a proper and clear topping pattern.
And despite that, price never took out the most critical of lows, the COVID pivot at $81.30.
Instead, it spared it by 13 cents. Because numerology.
What it means is that long term, $80 becomes a target.
What's notable about price action before today's earnings report pump is that Amazon maintained the July low, albeit barely.
And this creates three weekly lows of equal "support."
Which also becomes a target.
Bear in mind, with Nonfarm Payrolls also being tomorrow morning, you may get yourself a trade setup that looks something like what happened to AMD on Wednesday:
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed
When its ER came in hot in premarket and at open, and turned into a huge sell off and red day:
So the point with this call is to say that the August '22 $146 pivot may really hold. And if it doesn't hold, it might just get raided.
Which makes buying the top tomorrow morning something that isn't a particularly intelligent thing to do.
Worse, it means that buying the dip may be trading in the wrong direction, while selling the dump's retrace might actually be an optimal short entry.
Just keep in mind that we may have as much as another 2-3% of downside left in the SPX before we retrade towards/take out the tops:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
If the markets really get blown to pieces heading into the end of Q3 in accordance with the JP Morgan collar, stuff like Amazon is going to head to a 5-handle by next year.
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
You'll know the truth, in my opinion, when Amazon breaks the $125 flat bottoms, price won't come back, just like what happened with Netflix:
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives
What I really want to tell you all is that life still seems stable, it seems like all there is to worry about is making money and entertainment. But our world may very well change overnight, with no warning at all.
And what we've all done while the cards were still face down will be what determines who wins the pot and who loses their stack.
AMZN: Bearish Bat: Anticpating Potential PPO ConfirmationAmazon has gapped up to complete an 88.6% retrace thus completing the BAMM. Now we can see that the PPO is trading outside the upper bounds, and once the PPO comes back down below the upper bounds, it will confirm a Bearish PPO signal at the PCZ of this Bearish Bat, therefore confirming the Bearish Entry. I think it will target $81 from there on, but it could go lower if it ends up being a continuation of a much more bearish ABCD Pattern from years ago.
I think this rally was stirred on by the positive earnings release, but failed to realize how unprepared the guidance was during the actual call, as they hardly provided any guidance for Q3 all they could provide was their hopes but not much beyond that.
Meta - To Long, Or To Short?I have to say that Meta is one of the hardest charts that exist to read right now, mostly because for 9 straight months, an unprecedented feat in the history of Facebook, it has gone up in a straight line, and bigly.
You only see it clearly on the monthly:
And yet the problem with the bull thesis for a new all time high is the '22 bear raid took out all the sell side all of the way back to 2016.
Although you can have, and speculators and hodlers have been fortunate enough to have had, a significant retrace afterwards, stocks taking long term lows is usually kind of like when a person turns 50 and starts urinating blood.
It means something is wrong with an organ and the time they have left to live is not so long and not so bright.
Even the weekly is insanely one-directional
This stock will have attention tomorrow as post-market earnings have produced another $20 gain, but notably, as of time of writing, have brought the price only to $319, still underneath the July high.
Geopolitical risks abound in the markets right now. Much is happening with Mainland China and the International Rules Based Order. You can consult my previous calls, which are below, for my thoughts on the situation.
But the Cliff's Notes of it is that the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Gong by the Jiang Zemin faction and the CCP may soon be made public worldwide if President Xi weaponizes those sins to protect China, its 5,000-year-old culture, and himself from the IRBO intending a Maidan Revolution-style coup to replace him with someone from Taiwan that happens to be a fine lapdog to the global regime's interests.
What is the bull thesis for Meta? Facebook is something of a panopticon data collection system and advertising network rolled into the guise of a social media platform where people voluntarily disclose their location, interests, likes, connections, and spend time interacting with friends and family.
Meta's rebrand is to force the world into something of a Nintendo 64-level version of Second Life, where you're supposed to literally sit in your cube eating the cricket crackers under a bunch of blankets with the furnace/AC off with the VR headset strapped to your face while you do data entry all day.
It's really the kind of dystopian thing the Chinese Communist Party really likes, because it means you can be submissive and agreeable slaves that don't threaten its stability and still produce work.
If mankind's future is truly to return to tradition (it is), what place does Meta have in it?
Meta has very little place in the future, and that's a fundamental problem, really, for everything that revolves around people living chained to computers and phones.
A really notable thing is that the Chinese Government, especially under Xi Jinping since he took power in 2013, has not allowed Meta/Facebook to set up shop inside Mainland China.
The world's most notorious totalitarian regime and the creator of social credit and censorship does not want Meta/Facebook's influence impacting their citizens.
Ain't that something. And yet, you're supposed to be bullish on this... because it's going up.
You just want something to go up so you can buy it and feel pleased when you see green, not sell, and then feel sad when you see red, red, red, and are liquidated.
This is modern humanity.
So here's the question with Meta: is it a short, or is it a long?
The truth is that with Meta, it's gone up in the kind of straight line that makes Apple blush for 9 straight months.
When something trades like this, you can never say "it's a short."
Instead, you can watch for when it does become a short.
And we're in the zone. Although the biggest gap has been filled, the monthly candles show that the bodies of the winning streak's candles are still respecting the range created by the February of 2022 doom candle that ended the Party.
On the daily, the last five days of price action, which correspond with a Nasdaq that may very well have topped but an SPX that does not seem to have topped yet, are the most bearish they have been during the entire bull run.
And so, if you want to get long on open, I can only encourage you to exercise caution. You may really have upside as high as $343. But you may also have upside no higher than $325.
It may also gap up on market open and then sell off, and that kind of a sell off at this kind of a time may mean you are trapped.
To confirm a bull thesis, $343 needs to be broken and maintained
To confirm a bear thesis, the first thing we need to see after the earnings manipulation is for the $288.30 double bottom to be broken.
From there, if $258.88 is broken, the trend is over and will have reversed, even though you may see further upside in the interim.
A break over $325 and then a rejection under $288 would be the most bearish. If that unfolds, it's no longer a dip to buy. Instead, long term puts while the VIX is so suppressed might really be really, really valuable.
And the problem for both bears and bulls is the $40 range that "confirms" whether there's forever uppy or forever doom.
AMAZON Short-term buy signalIt's been exactly two months (May 30) since we gave the latest buy signal on Amazon (AMZN) when the price touched the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (see chart below):
Our target was set at 146.50, which is the High of August 16 2022 (Resistance 1) and we are updating our analysis as the recent rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), seems to be the final bullish leg towards that target.
We may experience a strong pull-back (long-term trend still bullish though) there (also the 0.618 Fibonacci level is just above it) as the 1D RSI is trading within a Channel Down, which illustrates a Bearish Divergence.
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AMAZONThese are levels that I'll be keeping an eye on when dealing with AMZN, and I'll revise as price action progresses.
I adapt to the change in money flow.
Fundamentals: "Monday marked the first trading day following Amazon’s (AMZN) 20-for-1 stock split that the company announced on March 9. Amazon shares were revalued to $120 per share, after trading well above $2000 per share prior to the stock split."
I'm projecting price to get around the $60 price point sometime in the near future.
Amazon (AMZN) Breaking the RED line and 100$ wall was a big short signal and now we heading to another big support level which is 80$
Wall Street equities were in the red on Monday with Nasdaq leading declines as investors worried the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening campaign could push the U.S. economy into a recession.
while Amazon workers will go on formal strike for the first time in the UK, The three major U.S. stock indexes were on track for the fourth straight day of declines since Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a more hawkish tone than expected when the central bank raised interest rates. Powell promised further increases even as weak data showed signs of a weakening economy.
The S&P 500, the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq have sold off sharply for December, on track their biggest annual declines since the 2008 financial crisis.
Im not close my shorts till we back to 70$ level
are you READY for 2023?
Amazon Long Eearnings 52 Week High hit New 52-week highs this week, powered by the Dow which, on Friday, extended its streak of positive days to ten — something the blue chip index has not done in almost six years. The Dow has been powered by, among other things, a slew of corporate financial results, particularly from the banks, which showed not only improved profitability, but also strong guidance for the next quarter and full year.
I have explained 2 bullish scenarios,1 bearish(worse case).
Bullish:
higher highs higher lows
poc uprising
volume increasing
capital flow rising
In case the Take profits hit, and we have increased volume, I will ride the trend.
I will only take profit 10% of the amazon portfolio and let the profit run.
Exit :Stop loss or trend change signal
AMAZON Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AMAZON was trading in an
Uptrend but now we are
Seeing a bearish breakout
From the opening wedge
Pattern which makes me
Bearish biased and I think
That we will see a move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Amazon is in a long short race!Amazon is in a long short race!
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Amazon stocks over the past two years. The top to bottom golden section of July 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, the low point of Amazon stock in early January 2023 hit the 2.000 level of the golden section in the figure, and is now in the second largest wave of rebound, breaking through the 1.000 level of the golden section! The next strong pressure level for Amazon stocks is at 0.618 on the golden section in the graph!
AMAZON: Is starting the new buy wave to 144.50.Amazon is trading inside a Channel Up for the last 2 months on balanced bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 65.517, MACD = 3.080, ADX = 16.131). Yesterday's low and reversal into today's strong 1D candle, looks like the start of the 2nd wave of buying inside the Channel.
As long as S1 holds, we are buying with a target just under R1 (TP = 144.50). If the S1 breaks (candle closing under it), we will take a quick sell targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 127.00).
Important observation: The 1D RSI is inside a Channel Down, hence a bearish divergence to the price's Channel Up. If it crosses above it, buying is favored. Otherwise, it should cause a bearish reversal sometime soon.
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SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'Over the last two quarters, financial social media has cared a lot about the "JPM Collar," a series of very large options trades that JP Morgan uses in one of the funds it offers its clients.
The theory for speculators is that the JPM collar will be used to constrict the market within a certain range. But as for how that plays out, it's hard for a trader to anticipate, especially amid the daily chop.
The levels are on the chart and you can reference them yourself. Below is a print of monthly bars, which is easier to see since I have to compress the TradingView chart to make the bars work:
If you're not familiar options, the general idea is this:
These options blocks expire September 29
JPM will lose a lot of money if price is over 4,665 or starts to approach 4,665, especially if it happens right away
JPM will lose a lot of money if price goes under 3,550, especially if it happens right away
JPM will lose a lot of money if price goes under 4,215, especially if it happens right away
But a nuance of being long 4,215 calls is that if price is significantly over 4,215 by September, they will make a lot of money on their calls.
Geopolitical Risks
Before we begin, I'll warn you, as I do in every post, that the geopolitical situation is tense. NATO is at war with the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine and the International Rules Based Order is always talking about "de-risking, but not decoupling" from Mainland China under President Xi Jinping.
The risk for markets is, short of a situation where a tectonic/geothermal event surprises everyone and causes the crash of crashes, is that Xi gets up one night and throws away the Chinese Communist Party.
Since Beijing business hours are New York night, you'll wake up to quite the gap down that will be hard to recover from, for the Chinese Communist Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin and its cronies are guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
The Call
The most most notable thing about price action is as June closed, range equilibrium between the June high and the October low is exactly 4,000.00 points.
Something else I stumbled upon when preparing for this post is that when comparing the Dow, Nasdaq, and SPX futures monthly bars, the three have completely converged.
This is the first time since the **2022 top** that this has happened.
You can see it on the weekly as well
There used to be quite the delta, which allowed for stock picking and trading. If you ask me, what three memelines coming together all at once means is that the markets reached peak overbought, and genuine "overbought" isn't something you can see with an indicator.
The daily shows this really only manifested in June.
There are some problems with more uppy, as I explain in my calls below on the VIX, which needs to go up so that whales can go back to collecting free money selling volatility:
VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude
(But note that under the current conditions being summer and we're not that bearish right now, we may only see VIX 50)
And the fact that the Nasdaq is just so far away from its trendline that going more parabolic is hard to believe.
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal
I don't normally call exact areas, but I put a white box with a dolphin because I think price is going there, and will do so fast, like, mid-August fast.
That box means 3,778~.
This means JPM will be green on out of the money calls, red on its own calls, and red on the 3,550 puts.
But JPM doesn't lose money to begin with because they're hedged and will be compensating for the drawdown in other ways, like the alpha they'll generate from going big block long in the dumps under 4,000.
The other advantage is it will trap bears who think it's finally the apocalypse they've long been awaiting for the ponzi to go to zero, and they'll buy puts and buy puts even though the iVol is insane from VIX being over 50.
Once the craziness is done, the markets will recover, and whoever sold will probably by trapped.
So, be careful out there. Wall Street's best laid plans can be blown to pieces in an hour by Heaven, for men are no better than mice in this boundless Cosmos.