AMAZON Only a break above the 1D MA50 remains. $240 on sight.Amazon Inc. (AMZN) spent the previous 2 weeks on a very strong recovery of the losses sustained in July - August, in fact those have been the strongest 2-week candles since October 23 - 30 2023.
That was the previous bottom of the 2.5 year Channel Up on its Higher Lows trend-line. Even though the stock broke below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (May 2023), it managed to hold the long term Support of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As this 1W chart shows, the Higher Lows of this pattern are periodic and cyclical and you can see that clearly with the use of the Sine Waves (also evident on the 1W RSI, the green circle bottoms below its MA). Every time the price broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) following such a Low (3 times) it approached the top of the Channel Up.
The first Bullish Leg peaked at +79%, the second at +69%. If this is a progressive sequence, then the third (current) Bullish Leg could be -10% less than the last, i.e. +59%. As a result, the 1D MA50 (which applied high selling pressure this week), is the final Resistance and bullish break-out confirmation the price technically needs before it targets $240.00 (+59% rise).
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Amazonsignals
AMAZON Under the 1D MA50 after 6 months. Is the bleeding over?Amazon (AMZN) has broken and closed below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since October 27 2023). Last time this happened, the stock had already begun the 2nd Bearish Leg (-18.83% decline) of the 2-year Channel Up.
As a result, there's a real possibility for the stock to reach as low as the 0.382 Fiboancci retracement level and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form a new Higher Low near the bottom of the Channel Up and then rebound.
As long as the Channel Down of the Bearish Leg is intact and Amazon doesn't close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will wait for a more comfortable buy at $160.00 and we will target $200.00 (+31.87% symmetrical rise as Dec 20 2023).
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AMAZON -15% dip possible. Take advantage of it.It has been 3 months (Nov 17 2023, see chart below) since our last buy trade on Amazon (AMZN), which hit both Targets:
February opened with a big gap upwards and the stock has been consolidating ever since. This consolidation, along with the completion of a 1D MACD Bearish Cross last week, is indicative of a top formation. In fact it is similar with the starting sequence of the last Higher High (September 14 2023) of the 1-year Channel Up.
The first pull-back/ technical correction of this pattern was a -22.61% decline and the second -18.83%. If the corrections are on a -4% progression, we can assume a -14.60% decline this time. That falls marginally below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (assuming the 2.0 Fib extension from the October 26 2023 bottom will be the peak).
As a result, we are expecting $155.00 as a fair pull-back currently and buy entry for the long-term. A break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), will be the technical confirmation of the sell signal.
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AMAZON The rally isn't over yet. Still time to buy and profit.Last time we looked into Amazon (AMZN) on October 30, we called a bullish break-out signal, which in two weeks hit our $146.00 target (see chart below):
We zoom out on the 1D time-frame now in order to identify the longer term patterns involved. Based on the 1D RSI which is pricing a Support on the former Lower Highs trend-line, we can see the very same formation on January 18, above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This was also after a break-out above a Falling Wedge, a pattern which formed the market bottom of the Inflation Crisis.
The stock shortly after completed a +39.84% rise and peaked just over the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are now targeting initially 156.50 (1.382 Fib) and early in January 165.00 (+39.84% from the bottom).
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AMAZON 1st bullish break-out made. Only the 1D MA50 left.Amazon (AMZN) made a Channel Down Lower Low on Thursday just before hitting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and following the higher than expected earnings opened Friday much higher. That price jump broke above the September 14 Lower Highs trend-line. The 2nd and final bullish break-out we expect before buying again for the long-term will be above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is where the October 12 rejection took place.
A candle closing above it, would invalidate the medium-term bearish bias and most likely restore the stock back on long-term bullish trend. The 1D RSI Double Bottom is what at the moment is shifting the sentiment a little more towards a potential bullish break-out. On the other hand, a break below the 4H MA200 will cancel it. Our target is 146.00, just under the August 16 2022 High.
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AMAZON Buy signal with a Double Target.Amazon Inc (AMZN) is trading within a Rising Wedge pattern and last week made the new Higher Low on its bottom. At the same time it hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and technically it is staging the new bullish leg.
With the 1D MACD about to form a Bullish Cross, we get a buy signal similar to May 09. As a result we are initially targeting 156.50 (+20.25%) and 164.00 (+26.15%) in extension.
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AMAZON Short-term buy signalIt's been exactly two months (May 30) since we gave the latest buy signal on Amazon (AMZN) when the price touched the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (see chart below):
Our target was set at 146.50, which is the High of August 16 2022 (Resistance 1) and we are updating our analysis as the recent rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), seems to be the final bullish leg towards that target.
We may experience a strong pull-back (long-term trend still bullish though) there (also the 0.618 Fibonacci level is just above it) as the 1D RSI is trading within a Channel Down, which illustrates a Bearish Divergence.
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Amazon is in a long short race!Amazon is in a long short race!
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Amazon stocks over the past two years. The top to bottom golden section of July 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, the low point of Amazon stock in early January 2023 hit the 2.000 level of the golden section in the figure, and is now in the second largest wave of rebound, breaking through the 1.000 level of the golden section! The next strong pressure level for Amazon stocks is at 0.618 on the golden section in the graph!
AMAZON on a 1D Bullish Cross, first since Feb 2020!Amazon Inc (AMZN) just completed a Bullish Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first in more than 3 years (February 04 2020)! That alone is the strongest long-term buy signal we could get. On the shorter term, now that the price is comfortably above the Bear Cycle Lower Highs, we will start targeting on every pull-back the upper Fibonacci levels, which match fairly well the Lower Highs Resistances of the Bear Cycle. Our medium-term target is 146.50 (slightly below the 0.618 Fibonacci).
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AMAZON Targeting $115 this month. Huge 1W bullish divergenceAmazon Inc (AMAZON) is on a strong rebound since the November 09 low, following the rest of the market in the aftermath of the big drop on the monthly CPI. The first and obvious short-term target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the medium-term the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
The recent low was made following the 1D MA50/100 Bearish Cross and last time that pattern emerged was on January 21 2022, which preceded the Jan 24 Low. We have plotted that fractal on today's price action since the August 16 High and it matches fairly well. As you see a potential end of November High can play out with a 1D MA100 test nicely around $115.00.
Obviously the long-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and as long as the huge bullish divergence on the 1W RSI holds, being within a Channel Up (Higher Highs and Higher Lows) as opposed to the price action (Lower Highs and Lower Lows), we can break this fractal sooner than expected. Only a break above the November 19 2021 Lower Highs can restore the long-term bullish trend.
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AMAZON formed a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. Accumulation ahead.It's been only 1.5 month since our long-term buy call on Amazon (AMZN):
The price rose aggressively after weeks of accumulation within the 1W MA200/300 and as we projected broke out hitting almost the first important long-term Resistance (1W MA50). On August 16 the price was rejected exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the point of rejection on the previous Lower High (March 29) of this 2022 correction phase.
The stock rose almost +45% from its June 14 Low, so profit taking was expected. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level broke and the price is just above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The former crossed today above the latter forming a technical Bullish Cross, the first such formation since December 03 2021. That was a far from ideal pattern as it broke the uptrend's Higher Lows trend-line and basically was at the start of the 2022 correction phase.
This time the Higher Lows trend-line is much lower (currently around $114.40) so on the medium-term we remain on a downtrend, until the 1W MA50 and Lower Highs Zone break. However, it is the first time we have such a strong and long uptrend on the 1W RSI, with its Higher Lows trend-line still intact.
Practically, as long as the 1D MA50/100 hold, we can expect a re-test of the 1D MA200. If they break, there is still a chance of finding Support on the 0.618 Fib. Further selling can be done below the Higher Lows trend-line.
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AMAZON Generational Bottom and buy opportunityAmazon (AMZN) has been trading within the MA300 (red trend-line) and MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for more than 2 months. In multi-year terms, this is the equivalent of a bottom formation within the Bullish Channel that started after the bottom of the Dotcom crash in September 2001.
More specifically, the 1W MA300 hasn't been touched since January 2009 (bottom of the housing crisis) and the last time a (Higher) Low was formed within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels (Fib Channel applied on the pattern) was within October 2014 - January 2015.
With the 1W RSI rebounding after breaking inside its multi-decade Buy Zone (has done so only another 3 times in 21 years) and the 1W LMACD inevitably about to make a Bullish Cross, this seems like a golden multi-year buy opportunity for Amazon. The Higher High target has been the 0.786 Fibonacci level since late 2018.
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Amazon Analysis 17.02.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
Amazon Analysis 21.01.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
AMAZON The Triangle's of +100% riseThis chart is for the long-term investors. Being on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, AMZN has been trading within a Triangle (Ascending) since September 2020. This neutral mega-phase, has had many investors questioning whether the overbought state of early 2020 has made the stock lose its bullish dynamics. This pattern comparison with the previous neutral phase puts things into perspective.
As you see the same Triangle pattern was formed from August 2018 to March 2020. On a monthly basis, every candle closed below the Resistance and only when that broke, Amazon started a parabolic rally. In 2021 Triangle we've have two major monthly break-outs but both retraced below the Resistance within the same month, leaving just a candle wick reminding of the failed attempt.
The stock has a tendency of rising more than +100% when such break-outs take place. If you are a long-term trader/ investor, look for a 1M candle close above the Resistance as confirmation of a +100% rally.
* Useful correlation:
As the chart above shows, the LMACD indicates that Amazon is going trough distinct Cycles. Right now it shows that we are closer to a bottom.
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AMZN |Now is a good time for go long!If you find this technical analysis useful, please like & share our ideas with the community. Coming to the technical analysis of AMZN , I think we are going to see a strong upward movement. If you are going to go long now, make sure to place the stop below the previous support area .
What do you think is more likely to happen? Please share your thoughts in comment section. And also give a thumbs up if you find this idea helpful. Any feedback & suggestions would help in further improving the analysis.
Good Luck!
Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
AMAZON targeting $4300 once the accumulation is over.Since the Subprime mortgage crisis, Amazon has been repeating a very distinct pattern. After every correction, it gets supported by either the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) or the 1W MA150 (red trend-line) and spends almost a year inside an accumulation zone. Once that's over, it targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the bottom of the correction.
The chart is on the log scale of course, in order to capture and better illustrate these patterns throughout AMZN's immense growth. See how the Accumulation Phases have a similar LMACD pattern every time.
Right now the price has only rebounded on the 1W MA50, three times since March 2021. I believe that as it happened in 2015 and 2020, it needs to hit one MA50 period lower than the first that supported and the next in line is the 1W MA100. Once successfully completed, I expect the price to make again a 2.0 Fib leap which right now is just over $4300.
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AMAZON Short-term target 3490Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price is on the 1D MA50.
Target: 3490 (just below the Resistance 1).
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AMAZON Buy opportunity or collapse?AMZN has been one of the top high cap performers after the pandemic strike. The recent selling got many late buyers worried but on a quarterly basis it appears to be a strong buy opportunity.
The pattern is a Channel Up on the log scale since March with the following indicators being is Support of a new rally:
* The price is near the Higher Low trend-line
* The MA20/MA50 are about to form a Death Cross. Last time that happened was on March 13 and that was done on the market bottom.
* The RSI is printing a sequence similar to the bottoming sequence of early March.
* The LMACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross.
Last time those indicators aligned, Amazon made a new High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the same pattern is followed, we are looking at a $3900 target.
Are you a buyer?? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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