Amcentertainment
AMC is posed to drop further next week, Tuesday.This week was a sliding down the slope for AMC. As predicted it didnt go below $30. And it will not do tomorrow. It just dipped below 30 for one hour just to come back into the profitable range for the Market Makers.
Tuesday the trading volume with Calls vs Puts, was 136% Puts. The tide keeps turning.
Wednesday the trading volume hit 90% CPR, Call to Put Ratio. The Bears are gearing up to push AMC further down.
The Open Interests "CPR", is sitting at 58.66% for this week according to my data and they might vary from broker to broker or data provider to data provider. Nevertheless, they will be outside the range of error.
This week seems bearish and so does next week. Even Apes seldom buy anything beyond their immediate sight, open interests in Put contracts are at 90%. Very high
The least losses, hence the biggest profit for the Market Makers will be in between < $38 - > $33. We have a huge amount of Put contracts sitting at the $30 level. I call it a level now since the puts are concentrated at $30. It is not a spread out "zone".
The price of AMC will not go above $36 with a trading volume of 60% of the average. These Calls are all wasted money, landing in the pockets of Goldman and Sachs. As I said many times before and just think about it, You need an exceptional volume to drive the price up exceptionally in short terms. And buying Call options on a week to week base is super short term trading. Remember there has been above 700 million shares traded to drive the price up on a daily base in May. Now we are creeping at around 60 million. This is 10% of the original squeeze volume. 10%, bro!!
This rocket ship to the moon has no fuel loaded. It is an empty decoy to lure in your money as liquidity for the early Apes. You go in and they get out. They sell to you their seat for a lot of money and they know the tank is empty. They will take your money, guaranteed. If they wont go out, all of you lose over time. To push a car up hill, especially if it is a steep hill, you need a lot of horsepower, fuel or ropes for pulling. Just holding the ropes wont do it and thus, it will roll back.
The Call options at $34, 36, 40, 45, 50 will disappear tomorrow. The Market Maker cash in, you lose your bet and the Market Maker will own all the long shares. NOW, for them to be sure they will drive the price down with you if you start buying PUT Options. They will cover the underlaying and short AMC. The price goes down and when you take profit they buy AMC back for a lower price and do their profit too, on the slippage and the broker on the commission.
BUT, remember they are sitting on a truck load of long positions and they want to dump them. Thus, the speed downhill will be faster!! Take my word for it.
Since 7, seven, weeks the Ape Army is losing their battle. They cannot drive the price up!! What makes you think they will do it next week?
I am open to think outside the box but you have to come up with some data, any data to support your opinion.
Volume
In May the trading volume was 380 million up to peak at 750 million PER DAY!!
In June it dropped to 300 million a day as a high point.
In July we had 170 million in average and now we barely reach 50% of that.
What you think is going to happen? You think the volume you need to increase the price significantly, and I just mean by 15 Dollars, can be done with 100 million shares daily? Or do you think it will go up by mystical Pixie dust?
Where are the buyers?
RSI
The RSI is showing a divergence since mid of June after AMC peaked beginning of June. The technical aspect.
MACD
MACD is a lagging Momentum indicator to confirm your technical, at least for me. Also here we have a divergence going on in the dailies. The only studies I use.
SMA 5 and 20
In the daily charts we also see that the MA5 broke below the monthly MA, which is the SMA20.
I use SMA5, and SMA20, SMA 5 is the weekly base of 5 trading days and there are 20 trading days in a months and so are 250 trading days in a year. I can clearly see if the average of AMC on a weekly base is breaking below the monthly average!
Support and Resistance levels
The only Support level sits at $30 with 25,000 Put contracts for now.
The Resistance levels sit at $34, 5,000 Call Contracts.
The Resistance levels sit at $36, 6,000 Call Contracts.
The Resistance levels sit at $40, 6,500 Call Contracts.
The Resistance levels sit at $45, 5,000 Call Contracts.
The Resistance levels sit at $50, 5,500 Call Contracts.
All (98%) of which will expire this Friday, 6th of August, 2021.
Nevertheless, Fundamental analysis is king and will eventually prevail when people running out of money and losing interest.
Conclusion
Now that we saw the first time that AMC broke through the $29 level it shows me the direction where the Market Maker and the Avenger Apes want to walk. It will not break on Friday. Maybe not even on Monday. Remember, Tuesdays and Wednesday are the important days for options. But it will eventually. It must. The small volume will not keep the momentum. Gravity will take over.
For the Bulls this is not very encouraging and next week we might see the further decline. We will see where they place the puts. Three things I will watch out for daily.
The volume as discussed. Everything below 100 million shares trading volume is nothing. 100 million on the Call Option Side only.
Unusual Option Trading at the end of a day from Barchart. Compile it in your Excel and eliminate duplicates and keep those options that were mentioned before but not maybe this day. You will see R and S level pretty clearly.
I will calculate the Sweet Spot of the Market Maker and keeping in mind that they are sitting on a train loads of AMC shares ready to sell at any price. This will create an additional downward pressure when the Revenger Apes start buying Puts.
All indicators and studies are lagging. Keep that in mind. They only confirm or deny what you already know.
I am not allowed to post images here. To see the images too, search Google "in the trenches of option trading" in blogspot. I dont do this to make any money. I do it to clear my mind and to pick the right side of a trade and for documentation reason. Do not subscribe to anything since I am not offering anything.
AMC chance to break-even on cash flowAMC quarter revenue $444 million vs an estimate of $382 million,
adjusted loss per share $0.71 cents vs The Street expecting a loss per share of $0.93
Consolidated attendance was 22.1 million for Q2 compared to 100,000 year over year
But the real great news is that AMC has now the chance to break-even on cash flow!
They are burning less cash!
My target is the 40usd resistance.
AMC - Daily chart - Buy scenarioLooking to buy some AMC on the following levels.
All are based on weekly levels (Former strong Resistance and Supply areas). First one is a bit adjusted to that big gap (orange circle).
Same target (Close of big Swing High). Will close full position on target area.
Dont forget:
- Watch your Risk management
- DYOR (Do-Your-Own-Research)
- This information / article is only for educational purporses and not a recommendation to buy or sell. I'm not a Financial Advisor.
Thanks for reading!
trader_se
AMC Elliott Wave Analysis : AMC is Sitting on a Ticking Bomb
_____________________1 Hour__________________
The wave C of wave ((4)) is to complete and we are going to ride on an impulsive wave ((5)).
One can take safe entry when price breaks parallel channel or Enter at wave 5 of wave (C)
As per rule wave, 4 can never overlap the starting point of wave 1 so our SL will be high of wave 1.
Note: the retracement of wave ((3)) is 3.618% that’s why we May get truncated 5th.
AMC with Volumes and Price InformationHello!
I see a lot of people with AMC fever.
We can see that the balance of volume are the same since the ''to the moon'' moment of the stock, but the price is falling.
What a see on graphic is possible a fan principle (bullish scenario) but in the same time a down trend with an important resistance (short scenario).
Just do a good money management if you want to invest in AMC.
Good luck!
I hope my analysis is a clear picture for you.
START OF OUR THIRD WAVE?? EVERYTHING AS PLANNED.In my previous elliot wave post, I expected a correction from $46 to the 61.8% fib. We are currently at that level and tested it three times. Expect a bounce from here up to the notorious 60ish region for our third wave. I will link my previous counts so you get an idea of the bigger picture.
Any comments and questions are welcome. Don't forget to follow if you like this type of analysis. Grab a popcorn, kick back, and enjoy the show!
Bull case on AMC. Technical AnalysisWe broke out of the double bottom and we're going to see a retest of the $40 breakout. If we hold that we can see upside towards the descending resistance trendline, we break that, move through the supply zone, and go above $70, we have confirmed that we are out of the downtrend we've been seeing the past month.
This is my first published idea, since I'm feeling to have a good grip on TA after a full year of trial and errors :)
diamond hands. WE THE PEOPLE HODL. Volume finally broke out today. We need that 136 million volume every hour not every day! AMC must test the monthly trend line support of $31.40, that is where I believe the bottom of the flag is. We broke out of a massive triangle but if AMC bounces hard off around this $31 area, it would appear that the triangle was actually much MUCH larger than we thought possible. Which is incredibly bullish considering what a solid breakout in this chart would do. ALL TIME HIGHS of a household name are still only 100% away? Absolute trash stocks get pumped 1000% every week. This is no pump and dump, this is half a year in the making. We are trending on twitter almost everyday, this is the most popular stock everywhere! And you mean to tell me that we only did 136 million volume down 15%? COME ON! I will continue HODL my xxx shares and add to my position every week. Up/down, couldn't care less. Apes strong. What can I say? I like the stonk. Not financial advice. $AMC #AMC
AMC Fibonacci Levels Trend AnalysisThe cat's outta the bag with AMC ...it's a popular stock I guess (joking). But all jokes aside, the apes remain steadfast in their message but it's also time to revisit the technicals. After retracing from lows earlier this year, the Fib levels and current support/resistance areas on the chart seem to be lining up. The 50 Fib line is clearly a pivot that used to appear as a support level that AMC would test but not break below. Now that it has AND after breaking below the 50DMA, you can see that AMC has gotten denied multiple times not only at the 50 fib but also at the 50DMA. The big question for the week is can this fib area see a break and hold above or will the consolidation trend remain intact?
Obviously, apes will be apes and fight to the death but making money is nice too and understanding levels of potential support and resistance are important no matter if you're looking for profit targets or areas of potential buy opportunities. The bigger focus I think may be on what happens at the shareholder vote on the 29th at the AMC annual meeting. There were more details outlined in that proxy statement filed by AMC earlier this month .