America
Geopolitical Analysis and Impacts on Currency Markets
Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about how recent geopolitical news is impacting the Forex market, analyzing the main currency pairs and providing a detailed technical picture.
Current Geopolitical Context
This week, the geopolitical landscape has been characterized by a series of significant events. Among them, tensions between the United States and Russia have dominated the scene, with a phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin that has opened up the possibility of a negotiation in Ukraine. However, the situation on the ground remains critical, with Russian forces advancing in several Ukrainian regions2. Furthermore, uncertainty over gas supplies in Europe has led to significant volatility in energy markets, with the price of gas falling by 3%.
Impacts on the Forex Market
Geopolitical tensions have had a direct impact on the Forex market, influencing volatility and capital flows. For example:
EUR/USD: The pair has been showing a bearish trend, influenced by economic uncertainty in Europe and the strength of the dollar as a safe haven.
USD/JPY: The dollar has gained ground against the yen, thanks to the perception of economic stability in the United States.
GBP/USD: The British pound has been under pressure due to concerns about economic growth in the United Kingdom.
Technical Analysis
A technical analysis of the major currency pairs reveals the following trends:
EUR/USD: Technical indicators suggest a "sell" position, with key support at 1.0832 and resistance at 1.0862.
USD/JPY: The pair is showing "buy" signals, with an uptrend supported by resistance at 148.09.
GBP/USD: Indicators are mixed, with resistance at 1.2944 and support at 1.2920.
Conclusion
Geopolitical dynamics continue to play a crucial role in determining the movements of the Forex market. Investors should carefully monitor global developments and use technical tools to make informed decisions. The current volatility offers opportunities, but also requires careful risk management.
I hope this analysis has been useful to you in better understanding the connections between geopolitics and Forex. Stay tuned for more updates!
$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rate Slows More Than ExpectedECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.8% YoY
(February/2025)
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.8% in February below 3% in January and market expectations of 2.9%.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, slowing from 0.5% rise in January and below market expectations of 0.3%.
Core CPI also rose 0.2% on the month and was at 3.1% on a 12-month basis, both below consensus.
$LMNRCould benefit greatly from being an American based produce company. Either from tariffs (prices being more competitive to foreign imports) or from inflation
Ford seems to easy of a buyThoughts on the Ford recall vs price action
I'm personally watching as buying is heating up
EURUSD - PoVThe EUR/USD exchange rate is influenced by several economic and political factors, suggesting that the euro may continue to weaken in the coming weeks. On one side, the United States is implementing expansive fiscal policies that could strengthen the dollar, such as economic stimulus and increased public spending. These factors, along with potential protectionist measures like tariffs on Europe, could further weaken the euro by reducing the competitiveness of European exports. Additionally, the **Federal Reserve's** monetary policy, which has raised interest rates to combat inflation, makes the dollar more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the U.S. currency. The United States' energy independence, due to increased domestic production of gas and oil, has also reduced its reliance on imports, which further strengthens the dollar compared to the euro.
On the other hand, the Eurozone is facing a series of economic and political challenges that are putting pressure on the single currency. High inflation is eroding purchasing power across the Eurozone, and despite the European Central Bank (ECB) raising interest rates to combat it, economic growth remains slow. This divergence from the United States, where growth has been more dynamic, amplifies the euro's weakness. Moreover, the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, worsened by the war in Ukraine and reduced gas supplies from Russia, has increased costs and slowed the competitiveness of European businesses. In this context, political uncertainties in some Eurozone countries and the ECB’s less aggressive economic management compared to the Fed further contribute to the euro's weakness.
Therefore, the strengthening of the dollar, driven by U.S. policies and growing energy independence, and the structural weakness of the Eurozone, are likely to continue pushing the EUR/USD lower in the coming weeks.
Nasdaq on the fence for UP- But with a plan for up or downsideI honestly can't give a definitive analysis on this one.
On the one hand we have a previous uptrend, and now consolidation following a Box formation confirming the sideways range.
So if we break up we will head to a target of 23,440
On the other hand (with the US going awry with their radical bills being passed) if the M Formation plays out, there is a likelyhood of the price crash down to 18,850.
The technicals are pointing on the UP so I am 70% Bullish and 30% bearish.
I would imagine the first analysis seems more promising to 23,440.
$USINTR -U.S Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR
(January 2025)
source: Federal Reserve
-The Fed kept the funds rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range as expected, pausing its rate-cutting cycle after three consecutive reductions in 2024.
The Fed showed more optimism about the labor market and noted that inflation remains somewhat elevated, removing the reference to ongoing progress toward the 2% target.
The Fed also said the economic outlook is uncertain, and is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
Is the American Coin Memecoin $USA Prime for a 1000% Surge?The Solana-based memecoin NYSE:USA , a parody token with no direct affiliation to the United States, has captured the attention of the crypto world. With a current market cap of $88 million, this coin surged to prominence, recording a staggering 1300% increase during the week the official Trump and Melania coins were launched. However, this meteoric rise was followed by an 81% retracement, leaving investors wondering about its future potential.
Recent Market Trends and Technical Indicators
Since former President Donald Trump’s inauguration last night, NYSE:USA has seen a sharp decline, dropping 55% in the past 24 hours. Despite this downturn, there are signs of a potential trend reversal. The daily candlestick pattern indicates the formation of a new candle, suggesting a possible surge of 252% in the short term and a 1000% increase in the long term, provided the broader crypto market stabilizes.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
- Support Level: $0.00000194, aligning with the one-month low. A breakdown below this level could trigger catastrophic losses for $USA.
- Resistance Level: $0.000019755, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A breakout above this point could set the stage for a long-term 1000% rally.
- RSI: At 66, the Relative Strength Index suggests that NYSE:USA is holding strong against bearish pressures, leaving room for further upward momentum.
Fundamental Insights
NYSE:USA ’s unique positioning as a parody token and its community-driven nature have been instrumental in its popularity. Its association with significant events, such as the Trump and Melania coin launches, underscores its speculative appeal. However, the token’s lack of intrinsic value and high volatility remain critical risks.
Market Activity and Liquidity
NYSE:USA tokens are available on decentralized exchanges, with Orca being the most popular platform. The trading pair DEFAI/USA on Orca recorded a 24-hour trading volume of $93,766.70. Other options include Meteora and Raydium (CLMM).
Trading Volume
The 24-hour trading volume of NYSE:USA is $18,866,936, marking a 93.90% decrease from the previous day. This significant drop highlights a decline in market activity.
Historical Price Performance
- All-Time High: $0.00002545, recorded on January 19, 2025. The current price is 70.12% lower.
- All-Time Low: $0.0000002267, recorded on August 21, 2024. The current price is 3,254.68% higher.
Outlook for NYSE:USA
The future of NYSE:USA hinges on its ability to capitalize on market momentum and maintain investor interest. While the current technical indicators and market dynamics suggest a potential for significant gains, the token’s high volatility and reliance on speculative trends present substantial risks.
Conclusion
NYSE:USA represents a unique blend of humor, speculation, and community engagement in the crypto space. Its recent performance and technical indicators suggest potential for a strong rebound, but investors should exercise caution, keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels. As always, conducting thorough research and considering market conditions are essential before making investment decisions.
$USIRYYY -U.S Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
December/2024
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated for the third consecutive month to 2.9% in December, as expected.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.3%.
However, annual core inflation slightly decreased to 3.2% from 3.3%, below the anticipated 3.3%. The monthly core rate also eased to 0.2% from 0.3%, in line with expectations.
XAUUSD | Market outlookGold prices were set for their largest weekly drop over three years on Friday. Expectations of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar, drove the drop.
BTCUSD | Trade idea
BTCUSD Performance: BTCUSD pulled back after reaching a minor top around $65,000, hitting a high of $65,103 and currently trading around $62,500.
Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 71.50% from 71% a week ago (CME Fed watch tool).
BTC ETF Inflows: BTC ETF saw an inflow of $202.51 million, with BlackRock attracting $224 million.
US Markets: NASDAQ, which has a negative correlation with BTC, is bearish but neutral for BTC. NASDAQ is trading weak ahead of Nvidia earnings; a close above 20,000 could push it to 20,500.
EURUSD UPWARD MOVE After the US elections, price is finally consolidating and the EURO is on it's way back up after it retests key levels.
USDCNY | Market outlook
The USD/CNY strengthened on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over a weak Chinese economy put pressure on the Yuan.
Recent data from China revealed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while growth in new home prices also slowed during the same period.
Additionally, the property sector has yet to respond positively to Beijing's series of stimulus measures, continuing to drag down the overall economy.
UPSTART HOLDINGS Short Trade in Motion! Awaiting Profit TargetsTechnical Analysis: Upstart Holdings – 15-Minute Timeframe (Short Trade)
A clear short trade entry was identified at 51.67 for Upstart Holdings. The price is currently moving in the anticipated direction, and we are waiting for the profit targets to be hit.
Key Levels
Entry: 51.67 – The short position was initiated after identifying strong bearish momentum.
Stop-Loss (SL): 54.54 – Positioned above resistance to manage risk and protect against potential reversals.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 48.13 – The first target we are eyeing as the bearish trend unfolds.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 42.41 – A further downside target as selling pressure increases.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 36.68 – If the bearish momentum remains strong, this is a possible next target.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 33.14 – The ultimate target, signaling a significant downward move.
Trend Analysis
The price is trading below the Risological Dotted trendline, confirming a solid downtrend. With the entry in place, we are now waiting for the price to reach TP1 at 48.13 and beyond, depending on further momentum.
The short trade on Upstart Holdings has a promising setup with a clear entry at 51.67. We are now monitoring the trade as it approaches the first target, expecting further downside momentum.
Bank of America Stock Surge on Q3 Earnings BeatBank of America (NYSE: NYSE:BAC ) delivered impressive third-quarter results, showcasing its resilience amid a challenging economic landscape. The bank reported $25.34 billion in revenue, slightly up from $25.17 billion a year earlier and above the analysts' consensus projection of $25.28 billion. Although profit fell to $6.90 billion ($0.81 per share) from $7.8 billion ($0.90 per share) last year, this was still better than the expected drop to $6.45 billion** or $0.75 per share.
Key Financial Highlights:
- Net Interest Income (NII) was reported at $13.97 billion, down from $14.38 billion a year ago but exceeding the expectation of $13.85 billion.
- The bank's trading revenue saw a significant uptick, with fixed income trading revenue rising 8% to $2.9 billion and equities trading jumping 18% to $2 billion.
These results come on the heels of similar positive reports from rivals like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, highlighting a robust start to the big bank earnings season. This broader positive sentiment in the banking sector is likely contributing to a favorable outlook for Bank of America.
Technical Analysis
As of the time of writing, NYSE:BAC shares are up 1.62%, signaling a bullish trend. The stock has recently rebounded from a consolidation zone, gathering momentum for further upward movement. A key indicator of this bullish sentiment is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently hovering around 71, indicating that the stock is entering overbought territory.
The stock's performance is further supported by its trading above key moving averages, which traditionally signals a strong bullish trend. Analysts note that this upward momentum, combined with the bank's robust earnings, positions Bank of America (NYSE: NYSE:BAC ) favorably for potential further gains, especially as NII shows signs of recovery.
Investment Implications:
The current trajectory suggests that Bank of America (NYSE: NYSE:BAC ) is turning a corner in terms of NII, as indicated by analysts like Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo. With the Federal Reserve having recently cut interest rates, analysts believe this should help improve bank earnings moving forward, as lower deposit costs may enhance profitability.
Additionally, with a provision for credit losses reported at $1.5 billion, slightly under the estimated $1.57 billion, the bank appears to be managing its risks effectively, further instilling confidence in investors.
Conclusion
Bank of America's latest earnings report reflects a strong performance amid a dynamic banking environment. The combination of better-than-expected trading results, a recovery in NII, and robust investor sentiment positions NYSE:BAC as a compelling investment opportunity. As the bank continues to navigate the evolving landscape of interest rates and economic conditions, investors may want to keep a close watch on its performance in the upcoming quarters.
SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart;
Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart;
They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together):
*#Nasdaq100
*#Oil
*#Bitcoin (sometimes)
Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days.
Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days.
In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle
With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin.
If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month.
SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election:
Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17%
Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10%
After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10%
After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
US DOLLAR - Boxed RangeUS DOLLAR is trading SUPPORT and RESISTANCE zones within a boxed RANGE.
It is respecting a range of 100.53 - 101.93, with respective bounces on either end, keeping it within its BOXED RANGE.
When I'm speaking about a BOXED RANGE, what I mean is that the RANGE ISN'T TIGHT like a normal range, where its looking for volume before a big move, these types of ranges have volume and are easier to read as they respect KEY ZONES, for example right now they are respecting 100.53 - 101.93.
We should wait for the US DOLLAR to enter either SUPPORT or RESISTANCE to enter a trade, we can wait for a rejection + bounce or wait for a breakout.
If the US DOLLAR breaks to the downside (BEARISH) I would expect for the overall US markets to continue it's BULLISH movements, as usually the US MARKET IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE US DOLLAR INDEX...
Conversely if it shows BULLISH signs and begins to move towards the SUPPORT ZONE, I will be looking for the US MARKET to move BEARISH.
GBPJPY | Trade ideaOn Tuesday, the yen gained support as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a hawkish stance, indicating the central bank might raise rates further if the economy meets expectations. Ueda’s comments were part of a document presented to a government panel led by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, where he detailed the BOJ’s July policy decision. His remarks emphasized that despite global market volatility, partly triggered by the BOJ's July rate hike, Ueda remains committed to raising borrowing costs if the bank’s projections are realized.
$USINTR - A Month of BreathThe Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR
unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more.
It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since September 2007.
Throughout Fed's announcement The Dollar Index TVC:DXY
plunged to what can be said Wave C completed from A-B-C
Elliot Waves Correction
(attached ideas)
Have the markets priced in Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY and Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR ?
TRADE SAFE
*** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
Apple getting golden to $301.56W Formation formed on Apple and the breakout was strong and confirmed.
With the momentum up and the strong demand and buying, we can expect this market to rally up.
Nature: HIGH Probability
Target $301.56
Crashing airlines - Brace for impact to $6.04Inverse Cup and Handle formed on Anerican Airlines since 27 July 2020.
The price still needs to break below the brim level, but it's looking really bad.
Nature: High Probability
Price<20
Price<200
Target $6.04
S&P 500 Cup and Handle formed and ready to run up to 5,704S&P 500 has formed a Cup and Handle, broken above the handle and has created a breakway gap.
This is showing the beast is ready to run up and rally to new All time highs.
It's ideal for the price to turn, test and confirm which will help get us into a better position for a trade.
My first target is at 5,704.
