/ES - GEX Structure with TPO and SPX GEX insight
The structure revisited last week's POC during GLOBEX, followed by position adjustments during the US CASH SESSION. As usual, 99% of the time, this zone oscillates up and down without a clear direction.
Respecting the downside levels, the market tested Friday’s low around 6018 to see if it holds, showing no interest in paying anyone.
I’m leaning towards a bearish stance as long as we keep trading below 6060/6080.
Key Levels:
POC Retest (GLOBEX): 6040
Friday’s Low: 6018
Highest Negative NETGEX: 6010
2nd PUT Wall: 5990
3rd PUT Wall: 5965
Single Prints Area: Below 5950
Poor Low Zones: 5920 and below
The market remains stuck in a balance area, reacting to these levels while traders adjust positions. Any sustained trade below 6018-5990 could trigger further downside movement, while reclaiming 6060/6080+ may shift the bias back upward.
SP:SPX = GEX considerations :
1. GAMMA CONDITION
Currently Negative → SPX is in a Put-Dominated Environment, meaning put open interest and volume outweigh calls.
Why it matters:
Negative gamma means market makers hedge by selling into declines and buying into rallies, increasing volatility.
If SPX drops further, dealers must sell more, potentially accelerating downside moves.
2. NET GEX / DEX (Gamma and Delta Exposure)
Gamma Exposure (GEX)
Since Yesterday: Net GEX decreased by -86.51M (-10.67%), moving from -810.5M to -897M.
Since 14:00: Net GEX decreased by -85.33M (-10.51%), now at -897M.
Interpretation:
A decreasing negative GEX suggests put activity is rising or being adjusted, reinforcing volatility.
With negative gamma, dealers hedge in ways that magnify price swings in both directions.
Delta Exposure (DEX)
Since Yesterday: Net DEX dropped by -47.58B (-4.24%), from 1.12T to 1.07T.
Since 14:00: Net DEX decreased by -33.39B (-3.02%), now at 1.07T.
Interpretation:
The decline in DEX suggests dealers are reducing their long delta exposure, which may indicate hedging pressure in response to market movement.
3. VOLUME & PUT/CALL RATIOS
P/C Volume Ratio: Increased to 1.45, indicating more puts being traded than calls.
Call Volume (Since Open): 1.14M contracts, up 6.46% since 14:00.
Put Volume (Since Open): 1.65M contracts, up 8.24% since 14:00.
Interpretation:
A Put/Call Ratio of 1.45 signals a strong bearish bias, as traders are buying more puts for downside protection.
The increase in put volume confirms that downside hedging is intensifying.
Top 5 Strikes by Volume:
6000 Put (128.67K contracts)
6050 Call (77.35K contracts)
6000 Call (71.31K contracts)
6040 Call (68.04K contracts)
5950 Put (67.57K contracts)
Interpretation:
Heavy put volume at 6000 suggests this is a key support level.
Calls at 6050 & 6000 show traders positioning for potential resistance at these levels.
4. PRIMARY LEVELS (Support & Resistance)
Call Resistance: 6200 (far above spot price).
Call Resistance (0DTE): 6055 (40.8 points above current price).
Put Support: 6000 (14.2 points below).
Put Support (0DTE): 6010 (4.2 points below).
Interpretation:
6000 is a key support level—if broken, expect further selling.
Resistance at 6055-6060 means bounces could struggle around this zone.
5. GAMMA FLIP (HVL - High Volatility Level)
HVL (Gamma Flip Level): 6095 (80.8 points above).
HVL (0DTE): 6050 (35.8 points above).
Interpretation:
6095 is the gamma flip zone—above this, gamma could turn positive, leading to more stability.
As long as SPX trades below these levels, we remain in a volatile, bearish regime.
6. TOP GEX STRIKE CHANGES
Largest Positive Changes (Increased GEX - More Call Exposure):
6020: +10.23M (+24.58%)
6050: +4.01M (+11.83%)
6015: +3.99M (+18.02%)
6045: +3.53M (+23.67%)
6035: +3.51M (+20.02%)
Largest Negative Changes (Decreased GEX - More Put Exposure):
6010: -25.9M (-39.22%)
6000: -10.87M (-11.14%)
5990: -7.89M (-23.78%)
5975: -5.33M (-10.53%)
6055: -4.67M (-85.38%)
Interpretation:
Biggest GEX drop at 6010 and 6000 → weakening support, making downside moves more likely.
GEX increase at 6020-6050 → some resistance is building there, potentially capping rallies.
OVERALL TAKEAWAYS
📉 Bearish Bias:
The negative gamma condition and put-heavy environment suggest increased volatility and downside pressure.
Key downside level: 6000—a break could trigger more selling.
Resistance zone: 6050-6060—any bounces may struggle here.
Dealers are positioned to sell into weakness, reinforcing potential downward momentum.
