AMZN
These stocks confirm the bottom has not happened yetMonday will determine where we are. I have three theories for now. Most importantly I am not yet convinced the near-term bottom is in because other stocks that have followed the market pretty well have not finished their wave 5 bottoms which would have them notch lows lower than their wave 3 bottoms from June.
The S&P 500 index ended its last long bull run with a top on January 4, 2022. It ended Primary wave 1 with a firm bottom on February 24, 2022 (this is the sell-off on the first day of Russia-Ukraine conflict). Primary wave 2 topped on March 29, 2022. Primary wave 3 bottomed on June 17, 2022. Primary wave 4 topped on August 16, 2022, while nearly touching the top trendline which began on January 4 and ran to March 29.Multiple stocks, especially those in the NASDAQ began the bear market earlier in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Amazon ( AMZN ) is one of these stocks. The stock had an all-time high July 13, 2021; however, this was likely a wave 3 top from the prior waves instead of the beginning of its own bear market. This was confirmed when Amazon’s lows in May and June 2022 flashed wave 3 signals instead of cementing a wave 5 base and market bottom. Therefore, Amazon began its decline with a top on November 19, 2021. It finished wave 1on March 8, 2022, wave 2 on March 29, 2022, wave 3 on May 24, 2022, wave 4 on August 16, 2022. Amazon began its waves early but achieved market reversals for waves 2 and 4 while bottoming with the market around June 17. If unsure about the index, this stock can also hold clues as it is yet to drop below its wave 3 bottom.
Next stock is Target ( TGT ). The stock presented the wave 3 peak from its last bull run on August 11, 2021; however, it achieved an all-time high on November 15, 2021. This is where I believe its bear market began. Wave 1 ended February 24, 2022, wave 2 on April 21, 2022, wave 3 on June 30, 2022, and wave 4 on August 16, 2022. This stock matched the wave 1 and 4 reversals while forming a bottom, just not its final on June 17 as well. This stock is trending well with the market. Like AMZN, it is yet to go below its wave 3 bottom and therefore I believe more declines are to come.
Next is Lowes ( LOW ) which is in a slightly different ending position but yet to drop below it’s wave 3 bottom. The Lowes bear market began on December 13, 2021. Wave 1 ended with the market on February 24. Wave 2 ended on March 21. Wave 3 ended on June 22, while achieving a near bottom with the market on June 17. Wave 4 ended on August 17 which is one day behind the market. For now it appears it may be further along in its final wave 5 down, but it is still 12 points above the wave 3 low. The trendlines have not been as helpful from a technical standpoint for this bear market.
Rockwell Automation ( NYSE:ROK ) is another stock moving with the market, however, the trend lines are not producing points of resistance. Wave 1 began December 16, 2021 and ended with the market on February 24, 2022. Wave 2 ended with the market on March 29, 2022. Wave 3 ended days after the market on June 22, 2022. Wave 4 ended with the market on August 16. This stock has tracked very tightly with the index, and if this remains true I currently have ROK around Minor wave 2 in Intermediate wave 5. This is more apparent than the current movement in the index, however, it can be used to indicate what lies ahead for the market.
Old Dominion ( ODFL ) is next with the bear market beginning December 7, 2021. Wave 1 ended with the market on February 24, 2022, wave 2 on March 18, wave 3 ended on May 19, but did find another market low on June 17 with the market. Wave 4 ended on August 11 and the stock is currently around Intermediate wave 5 preparing for its final bottom.
Another high volume darling with earnings this week is Apple ( AAPL ). It began the bear market with the index on January 4, 2022. Wave 1 ended slightly later on March 14, but it also shared a major bottom on February 24 with the market. Wave 2 ended on March 30, wave 3 ended June 16, 2022, and wave 4 ended on August 17. The last three reversals for Apple occurred one day after the market, so this is something to consider moving forward. A drop to the wave 3 bottom requires a minimum 20 point loss from Friday’s close. This stock has quite a bit of ground to lose and the stock trends up prior to earnings. An earnings call bomb is the quickest way for Apple to retake the June lows.
The S&P 500 has gone below the Primary wave 3 bottom so technically it does not have to go lower than it did on October 13. I am using the stocks mentioned here to determine when the index has bottomed as I do not believe it has occurred yet. Tomorrow will be big for the index. The current chart has us possibly still in Intermediate wave 4, and it would likely be near the Minor C wave. The trendlines for SPX have held well and there is not much before that line is met. This only leaves room for the near-term top to happen no later than tomorrow. For this entire analysis to hold true, we should have an overall down week. Big earnings start coming out by mid-week to include some of the stocks mentioned here. I will map out the sub waves once I know where we are in Intermediate wave 5. Earliest models would have Intermediate 5 lasting 11 days IF we ended Minor wave 2 on Friday. If we are not in Intermediate wave 5 yet, the length could be around 15 days long.
Upcoming catalysts besides earnings are the Fed the first week in November and the U.S. elections the second week of November.
Bullish $AMZN Amazon broke out of its channel on Friday, stock has the potential up to $124 per share over the next week.
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AMZN - BULLISH SCENARIONASDAQ:AMZN Giant, rated as one of the most stable blue chips out there. Unless the earning report is way below expectations the price is likely to bounce off the support levels from before the split action 5 months ago and transit into a trend reversal formation.
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AMAZON to crash to $80This analysis I do out of doubt.
The charts show an INverse Cup and Handle.
The moving averages are all down 200 > 21 > 7MA
Target 1 seems to be $80.70.
CONCERNS:
The $100 support level is extremely strong and price doesn't seem to price below.
I would go short but knowing this is a medium to low probability trade.
AMAZON - Make Or Break! Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
AMZN is approaching a strong support and round number 100.0 in green.
For the bulls to take over, we need a new major high to form and then a break above it and above the falling trendline in orange.
Meanwhile, we would be bearish and we can still dive inside the green zone 85.0 - 100.0 before reversing.
Unless the bears manage to break below 85.0, in this case, the bears would remain in control and more bearish movement would be expected.
Which scenario do you think is more probable and why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
AMZN Potential for Bearish Continuation| 13th October 2022On H4, with the price moving below ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 116.81, which is in line with the overlap resistance to the take profit at 101.28, where the 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, price may rise to the stop loss at 122.35, where the previous swing high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AMZN Potential for Bearish Continuation | 11 October 2022On H4, as the price moving within descending channel and below ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 117.35, which is in line with the overlap resistance to the take profit at 102.18, where the swing lows are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 125.05, which is in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AMZN Potential for Bearish Continuation | 11 October 2022On H4, as the price moving within descending channel and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 117.35, which is in line with the overlap resistance to the take profit at 102.18, where the swing lows are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 125.05, which is in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Amazon´s downtrendAmazon was marked with a huge growth during the COVID period which makes us focus on the behaviour of the stock within the rectangle of that period. And we notice here that we have a support at 143 and within the rectangle we can notice the oscillation of the price. This also marks a curve format that leads us to the downtrend starting from April 2022.
So, following the trend line above we expect that the price will first rise following the curve in the rectangle then drops either to 124 or 101 which is the limit of the rectangle.
AMZN: A breakout from a Congestion Zone! What's next?• AMZN triggered the bullish sign we discussed last week, by breaking the $117 area, and it is behaving just as we expected. As usual, the link to my last analysis is below this post;
• Now that it is not in a congestion anymore, AMZN is free to seek its next resistances. Ideally, it would fill the gap at $136 in the next days – Remember, gaps work as magnets during reversals;
• AMZN is consistently trading above the 21 ema, which is good, but the reversal is still on early stages, and any bearish reaction could frustrate the bullish thesis;
• What kind of reaction could make AMZN reject the bullish thesis? If it loses $117 again it wouldn't be good. If it triggers a bearish reversal structure, it would be worse. So far, there’s no technical bearish reversal structure around, just an important resistance level, as seen in the daily chart below;
• The main problem on AMZN is the 21 ema, as any bearish top sign around this area would give us the impression of a Dead Cat Bounce, just for AMZN to resume the drop all the way down to $112 again, or even to the $102;
• Therefore, the situation is still delicate, and AMZN still has a few challenges before truly reversing this bearish sentiment;
• For now, let’s keep our eyes open around the $117 - $118 area;
I’ll keep you guys updated on this. Remember to follow me for more analysis like this! Keep in touch.
AMZN: Next targets + Trend analysis!• AMZN is doing some range trading since September 23;
• Its support is at $112.06, while its resistance is at $118.70;
• The momentum is still bearish, and we don’t see any reversal pattern confirmed yet. In this case, we can assume AMZN will lose the support and seek the next target at $102 (the next support level);
• Is there any chance of a reversal? Yes. By breaking the resistance, it’ll trigger a technical mid-term reversal, and the next resistance at $136 would be the next target;
• The open gap near the next resistance will probably help the bullish thesis. Remember, gaps work as magnets during reversals;
• For now, AMZN is neutral, and the volume confirms this, as it stabilized along with the price;
• To whatever side AMZN breaks, I see a good movement in sequence. Let’s pay attention to these key points for now.
I’ll keep you guys updated on this. Remember to follow me for more analysis like this! Keep in touch.