Amazon | Fundamental AnalysisAmazon has been the undisputed king of e-commerce for years. The industry has been changing in unpredictable ways lately, spurred on by unforeseen events. The company took a huge leap forward at the beginning of the pandemic, and as its growth flattens out, has its high growth ended? And how will it affect Amazon stock?
According to Statista, Amazon leads other e-commerce operators by a wide margin. As of June 2022, it accounted for 38% of all U.S. e-commerce sales, followed by Walmart with 6.3%. This was due in part to Amazon's Marketplace, a platform for third-party shoppers that the company launched in 2000. In 2021, Marketplace accounted for 60% of total gross merchandise volume, about 25% of total U.S. e-commerce sales.
However, after a surge in sales amid a pandemic, growth is slowing. This is due to a combination of factors such as tough comparisons to last year's high growth, going through the flow of stimulus money, and inflation. North American product sales grew 10% year-over-year in Q2.
The pace of growth slowed from pre-pandemic levels, although even in Q2 they continued to build on last year's growth. Total sales were up 27% year over year in Q2 of 2021, and that figure fell to 7% in 2022. Company executives are forecasting an average of 15% growth in Q3, which is still below pre-pandemic levels. For example, in the Q3 and Q4 of 2019, sales were up 24% and 21% year over year, respectively.
The global e-commerce market is expected to continue to grow steadily, from $5.5 trillion in 2022 to $7.4 trillion in 2025. If Amazon maintains its share of the overall e-commerce market, then in theory its sales in this segment will grow organically with the rate of overall e-commerce growth. At this point, double-digit e-commerce sales are still an achievement. However, it is no longer the engine of company growth that it once was. If this were Amazon's only business, the company's stock would not look very inspiring.
Although e-commerce is the company's core business (at least for now), it is only one part of the puzzle.
The other important part is Amazon Web Services (AWS), the cloud computing segment. It remains a huge engine of growth, providing steady growth (33% YoY in Q2) as well as profitability. It accounted for 16% of total sales ($19.7 billion) in Q2 and was the only segment with a positive operating profit ($5.7 billion). Two other reportable segments, North American and International, posted operating losses.
AWS continues to introduce new features and services and expand into new markets, attracting new customers and expanding deals with current ones. The company is well positioned to grow sales for years to come.
In addition, Amazon is doing everything else as well. Although the company announced that it is closing all of its 68 physical Book, 4 Star, and pop-up stores, it has made more progress in grocery sales by opening 12 new Amazon Fresh stores in Q2. That's the key to future dominance. The company is well-equipped to do what you might call an elaborate gamble, and trying new types of business without fear of failure is how it thrives and dominates when it is successful. Otherwise, it shuts them down and moves on.
Amazon continues to make acquisitions that increase its top line and expand its dominance in new industries. The company recently acquired One Medical for $3.9 billion, one of the most expensive acquisitions in its history. A few weeks later, the company also announced the closure of Amazon Care, implying that it was making some revolutionary changes to its health care segment. It looks like Amazon is preparing for some major changes in this area that could disrupt the entire healthcare industry, in addition to digital technology and telemedicine, which are already redefining healthcare.
Despite the slowdown in e-commerce growth, Amazon's story is far from over. E-commerce growth is still in the double digits, so even so, the company remains in growing stock territory. But the other businesses it is entering make it a decent bet for strong growth in the coming years, both e-commerce-related and entirely separate.
AMZN
AMZN, 1 HrsNASDAQ:AMZN
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BTC Pattern for the next 2 years. This chart resembles a correlation between BTC and AMZN (early days).
Anywhere near $10,000 or below will see a heavy buy resistance and will likely accumulate for a year before initiating a new bull cycle.
Of course, BTC might take a different stance and decouple from this pattern due to regulations and restriction, but very interesting to see how it ends.
If you're excited to see where would this end if BTC to follow AMZN foot steps for another 10 years comment below.
Thank you and Do your own research.
Amazon at key area? Amazon
Short Term
We look to Buy at 125.43 (stop at 118.42)
Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Short term bias is bullish. 50 1day MA is at 125.00. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 125.00, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 144.72 and 157.53
Resistance: 146.00 / 170.00 / 188.00
Support: 125.00 / 116.00 / 102.50
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AMAZON formed a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. Accumulation ahead.It's been only 1.5 month since our long-term buy call on Amazon (AMZN):
The price rose aggressively after weeks of accumulation within the 1W MA200/300 and as we projected broke out hitting almost the first important long-term Resistance (1W MA50). On August 16 the price was rejected exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the point of rejection on the previous Lower High (March 29) of this 2022 correction phase.
The stock rose almost +45% from its June 14 Low, so profit taking was expected. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level broke and the price is just above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The former crossed today above the latter forming a technical Bullish Cross, the first such formation since December 03 2021. That was a far from ideal pattern as it broke the uptrend's Higher Lows trend-line and basically was at the start of the 2022 correction phase.
This time the Higher Lows trend-line is much lower (currently around $114.40) so on the medium-term we remain on a downtrend, until the 1W MA50 and Lower Highs Zone break. However, it is the first time we have such a strong and long uptrend on the 1W RSI, with its Higher Lows trend-line still intact.
Practically, as long as the 1D MA50/100 hold, we can expect a re-test of the 1D MA200. If they break, there is still a chance of finding Support on the 0.618 Fib. Further selling can be done below the Higher Lows trend-line.
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multi-timeframe analysis for AMZNHello guys
As you see in chart, it formed a QM structure on a flip of monthly time frame, after confirming that structure started bullish movement and in way make a island pattern because of two sides gap. The last gap doesn’t fill so if we get short position, we can put target below that gap(target=$125.41).
Price formed a three-drive pattern and with RSI divergence confirmed this pattern, three drive is a great approach.
always do your own research.
If you have any questions, you can write it in comments below, and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your like and comment.
BE PROFITABLE
Shopify SHOP - Patience is a VirtueShopify was more or less Canada's version of TSLA or AAPL last year, except it cratered like a memestock. If you look at the monthly, it's an absolute bloodbath, losing 83% in less than a year.
Although prices are currently "cheap" and SHOP seems to be an actually useful company that may have a future, you've got a long way to go before the buying opportunity.
A lot of people see that Shopify spiked to $42 and is down to $32 and think to themselves that it's really quite a discount.
This isn't so bad if you can buy spot and diamond hands it for a few months, but if you're on calls or leverage, you're going to have a bad week.
One of the key tells is that Shopify has been trading in this specific range for three months now. And while it hasn't broken the lows, it did fill its gap during the peak of bear rally hysteria.
And we're now in the feature film "Eight Straight Days of Doom." It's a woke snoozefest, featuring Alec Baldwin. But you paid $27 for a ticket and $318 for a bucket of popcorn and 2 kilograms of Sour Patch Kids, so you're stuck eating 6 weeks worth of calories in 3 hours while watching something unpleasant on an ugly sheet of silver with too many speakers with the volume cranked to the "way too f'in loud" setting.
This is modern human life, and it's nothing to be desired. Traditional human life was much more interesting. The women wore nice dresses, the food was good, and there were harp players and poets in the streets to listen to, instead of Alec Baldwin.
Everything in the market is about to get really scary so that you can sell low in panic and then buy back higher with FOMO starting in October. This is how the game is played.
The caveat to this call is $23 may be too light to enter. Numbers like $18.xx may manifest, although I wouldn't expect those to last for very long.
Either way, that "support" right below $30 is about as useful as trying to hold a bowling ball with a piece of inkjet paper.
Don't get greedy, and don't capitulate. But the upside on Shopify when the Bump and Run Reversal/Return to Normal begins should be quite delicious, if you can wait to buy at the right price and hold on long enough to make it that far.
AAPL AMD AMZN BAC NVDA TSLA trade ideas - jtgladiator 8/24NASDAQ:AAPL chart www.tradingview.com
Enter calls > 168.71 watch for reversal off gap or this level for puts PT1 = 169.86 PT2 = 171.52
Puts < 166.65 for gap fill down. Watch for reversal here. PT d165 PT w163
NASDAQ:AMD chart www.tradingview.com
Calls 95c - 99c > 94.44 PT1 95.02 PT2 99.25
Puts 90p < 92.11 PT1 90.56 88.59
I am still swinging the 85p until 9/16
NASDAQ:AMZN chart www.tradingview.com
Virtually no volume until 128.99 then 125.50
From there 122 can come quick but there is some volume there
Looking at swinging 122p
129 and 126p are options also
Calls 138c - 141c > 136.32 or puts off the rejection PT 138 141
Puts < 132.85 129p and 126p or monthly 122p
NYSE:BAC chart www.tradingview.com
BAC traded up while SPY was trading down. Outside candle on the daily.
This thing is ready to make some moves. I like it for the downside. But play the chart and levels.
Calls >35c PT 35.30 36.00 - Be careful of reversals. The outside candle can be nasty
Puts < 34.41 PT 34.29 33.92 33.41 Swing 8/26 or later
NASDAQ:NVDA chart www.tradingview.com
Enter 168p < 169.70
Be aware of reversal
Possible Gap fill to 165.31
PT for weekly is 167.24 then 164.28. Grab 9/2 or 9/16 :p
Or grab for earnings lotto
Enter 178c > 174.60 make sure BOH
Watch for reversal
PT 175.58 178.49
NASDAQ:TSLA chart www.tradingview.com
TSLA went green on 8/23.
Call Swing 950c > 896.48. Watch for reversal PT 901 944
Put Swing 825p < 863.77 PT 855 838 818 785
-jtgladiator
AAPL AMD NVDA AMZN TSLA 8/23 jtgladiator #thestratWe are looking for continuation on the swings we entered on 8/22. If there are any reversals to the upside, be sure to secure put profits and take calls
NASDAQ:AAPL chart www.tradingview.com
AAPL Enter calls > 169.86 watch for reversal off gap or this level for puts
AAPL Enter puts < 167.14 for gap fill down. Watch for reversal here. PT 165 PT 163
NASDAQ:AMD chart www.tradingview.com
AMD Call swing > 95.02 with PT1 99.25 - not likely imo
AMD finally broke the double inside weekly to the downside. Swinging them 85p all the way out to 9/16 or longer
NASDAQ:NVDA chart www.tradingview.com
NVDA Enter 178c > 175.58 make sure BOH. Watch for reversal
NVDA puts enter 168p < 170.30. Be aware of reversal. Possible Gap fill to 164.24. PT for weekly is 164.78. Grab 9/2 or 9/16 :p
Or grab for earnings lotto
NASDAQ:AMZN chart www.tradingview.com
AMZN Grab calls > 136.32 or puts off the rejection pt 138 141
AMZN Grab puts < 132.85 for huge swing with PT of 120 and a gap fill all the way down
NASDAQ:TSLA chart www.tradingview.com
TSLA Call Swing 920c > 877.20 - watch for reversal pt 901 944
TSLA Put Swing 800p < 858.90 855 838 785
NYSE:BAC chart www.tradingview.com
BAC Daily Swing Calls BOH 34.75 PT 35.30 36.00
BAC D/W put /swing < 34.45 PT 34.15 33.40 Swing 8/26
-jtgladiator
AMZN Technical Update 8/23/22🔸️Ticker Symbol: AMZN 🔸️Timeframe: 4 Hour 🔸️Investment Strategy: Long
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: AMZN is primed for an increase in value as long as we can continue in this bull trend. The price of AMZN is currently testing the bottom deviation level on our regression trend indicator which has acted as a strong level of support in the past. We also have our white line on the bottom dashboard representing money momentum in the green buying stage or accumulation stage which does indicate we could see an increase in value as long as we are heading in an upward direction. The take profit area on AMZN if we do continue in this bull trend would be approx. $140 which is the strongest level of support. Thank you for watching. Have a great day!
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AMZN- Bullish PositionCurrently trading below 20 and 50-day EMA moving average investors can see that the underlying share price of amazon is undervalued. Valued at $133.35 AMZN is trading in line with its 100-day EMA average, it’s important to mention that there is still a strong possibility that the stock will fall even further in line with it’s 200-day EMA before bullish corrections occur. Regardless these technical signals indicate to investors that we should anticipate bullish momentum for this stock.
When looking more closely at the stock and its performance, Fibonacci retracement pivot points shows investors that it’s currently trading at a strong support level of 0.786; further supporting this undervalued and bullish notion. Investors should anticipate corrections towards its resistance level. Investors should also take due care to the strong possibility that the bearish sell trend might reach a stronger support level before bullish corrections occur.
Based on the above technical indication, we have set a buy price in line with the Fibonacci’s lower 1.00 support pivot. We have also set a sell price just above the 20-day EMA level. Based on Fibonacci, we have set a sell price in line with the central PP level, in between it’s resistance and support.
AMZN | Bearish still potentially continueAmazon is one of growth stocks with more than 20% growing sales per year. This growth sales likely will continue in future potentially with larger reached customers by Amazon. I do not have any significant complaint about the fundamental of Amazon, except for the high valuation of stock. According to the lowest P/E in the last 7 years, US$ 109 seems reflected the P/E. Probably that is the reason, AMZN rebounded around 101.87 lately.
But, technically, I still see bears pressure strong on the AMZN. And AMZN still has a high chance to breakdown 101.87 and going lower. Right now, AMZN moving sideways and has a high chance to test again near resistance around 125-129. Only if bulls can break the resistance, and maintain price above it, then we can expect AMZN will stop the dropping. Otherwise, AMZN is continuing going lower and making P/E lower and more attractive to investors.
AMZN on Critical support Entering buy area around 138.. Entry can be lowered since we are now sitting on major support, providing a better R:R ratio.This horizontal levels must hold the following days.. One could even think of selling a part at 144.5 and holding the rest to 150 area. Althought the market is looking quite weak, breakdown volumes havent been so high. please comment your thoughts.NFA