Major BEARISH signal (AMZN)I expect the BABA shares to climb and AMZN to fall after announcement of the results.
Disclaimer: All content has only educational and informational purposes, and never should be used or take it as financial advice.
AMZN
AMZN Back to 1300, Nasdaq Back to 7000Back at the end of 2018, I made an attempt to call a longer term bear market for big tech. Linked below are some of those posts. I was new to markets, and all I did was look at the chart. Even back then, the charts for Apple and Amazon looked ridiculous, but now it's undeniable that they've seen parabolic growth. This is the AMZN chart zoomed further in, where you can see how I was dead wrong at the end of 2018, as the money printer and QE kicked in again, taking the market to new highs shortly before the pandemic hit. Then, the pandemic hit and the Fed exhausted the last of its firepower. Will they save the market again?
Above, I marked the 1600 and 1300 levels as areas of support, should the current level fail. Also shown on my Amazon chart is the long term uptrend, which has now been broken and confirmed as resistance. I expect markets to fall back to pre-stimulus levels, as the 2021 rally was largely "fake." Even though some of these companies may continue to remain profitable, I think some disappointing earnings will start to trickle in, signaling a depressing outlook for growth in the near future. Take Netflix, for example. It's already getting closer to testing some of those earlier levels. Perhaps it's a "canary in the coal mine" situation.
What's especially concerning is that even companies that have exceeded expectations (like Tesla) cannot sustain a rally. Look at that earnings pump and dump:
This implies that market participants are exiting regardless, and booking profits after many years of easy economic policy. Now here's something truly hilarious. Elon Musk and Bill Gates claim to be shorting each other's companies! What happens in this scenario? They both still profit. Billionaires are just playing games.
Here are some levels marked for Tesla. If Elon continues to innovate and do well, TSLA may not drop quite as much as some others, but that's still a lot of profit on the table. He's even sold some of his own shares himself:
And Microsoft:
Why Would the Fed Just Let It Happen?
The easiest way to fix inflation is perhaps to just simply let things unwind. As big corporations lose profits, smaller businesses close, and people lose their jobs, their homes...a big financial crunch occurs that shocks the living daylights out of our systems. New solutions will need to be found, some of which may seem obvious, such as taxing the wealthy and corporations much more heavily. Some we haven't even dreamt of yet. Here's a speculation: Community living becomes more desirable, and new small businesses will need to emerge to tailer to those communities. A world owned by corporations already causes pressure on communities and small businesses, where your boss is forced into implementing oppressive working conditions to stay afloat. All the while, your next door neighbor begins trading Dogecoin and digital images to finally have a glimpse at paying off his debt or buying a home. It's an escape into a black void that consumes your soul, and the soul of society.
Ready for the collapse?
Let's see what happens.
This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
AMZN slowest growth since 2001 EPS far below analyst predictionsIf you haven`t bought this bounce:
then you should know that AMZN revenues rose 7% in the first Q of the year to $116.4bn, slowest growth in two decades!
Earnings per share (EPS) were -$7.56 vs $8.55 analyst predictions, first quarter it has posted a net loss in at least four years.
My price target is now the $2400 support, with a possible bounce by the end of the year due to the stock split enthusiasm.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Update on FBTomorrow's candle be like that. Pay close attention to the tomorrow's candle that indicates next week's move which will be red and downward.
Best position for Short at Post and Pre-market.
Amazon (NASDAQ: $AMZN) Touches 0.5 Fib Region For 3rd Time! 3️⃣Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It sells merchandise and content purchased for resale from third-party sellers through physical and online stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, and Echo and other devices; provides Kindle Direct Publishing, an online service that allows independent authors and publishers to make their books available in the Kindle Store; and develops and produces media content. In addition, it offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products on its websites, as well as its stores; and programs that allow authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, the company provides compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as fulfillment, advertising, publishing, and digital content subscriptions. Additionally, it offers Amazon Prime, a membership program, which provides free shipping of various items; access to streaming of movies and series; and other services. The company serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and content creators. Amazon.com, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Beginning of an End - E.3This is not what you invest on for long-term (not even short-term).
"Gas" price and people returning to "restaurants" left no future for Uber, the chart proves.
Bigger view, will take market with I thought I wrote the filler text and was like wow. I’m good. Anyway, bullish setup unless it breaches 2551ish (wherever wave 1 high was, can’t go below that or EW invalidated. Most likely it begins move up to 4200-4500 to complete wave V. SPY also trying to complete wave IV/start wave V.
I posted a more near term scenario on post earnings move statistically pointing to bigger move than options are priced for. This bigger picture makes me lean to bullish initial target around 3500. Would not be an anomaly if it dropped to 2450 region which would invalidate wave IV and thus the bullish structure which it has been building since 2017.
If you want to know how market will get out of this downward trend and momentum... pay attention to AMZN Tomo
Update of FBIt's gone, this chart won't return upward again, crossed down lower bond of yellow channel and keeps falling until the middle of red channel. No entry at above 150.
Amazon (NASDAQ: $AMZN): Best Company In The S&P 500?! 🏆Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It sells merchandise and content purchased for resale from third-party sellers through physical and online stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, and Echo and other devices; provides Kindle Direct Publishing, an online service that allows independent authors and publishers to make their books available in the Kindle Store; and develops and produces media content. In addition, it offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products on its websites, as well as its stores; and programs that allow authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, the company provides compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as fulfillment, advertising, publishing, and digital content subscriptions. Additionally, it offers Amazon Prime, a membership program, which provides free shipping of various items; access to streaming of movies and series; and other services. The company serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, and content creators. Amazon.com, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Beginning of an End / UpdateAs forecasted, Tesla crossed down the resistance bond (in post market). It may fall below 850 by the end of this week.
Late May at around $730 is good for buying (short-term view).
More than %50 in one month!A dramatic sharp increase is expected, recommended for mid-term, growing up to around 30-35.
$AMZN Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets $AMZN Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets
Not much has changed since the last time I published AMZN… I’m just reposting because we're close to earnings… I tightened up the trend-lines, and looked to make sure I wasn’t missing anything… but that’s about it… I know my buy orders are in...
GL, y’all…
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I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
What Next?They say it's gonna be a private company BUT here is how I foresee its future:
Twitter has a landmark position between $55 - $58. I don't think it can cross $58. It probably return downward at after $56, if it happens then it will be another "Beginning of an End"; But if it crosses $58 then congrats to whoever bought it!
#pessimistic .
Beginning of an End E.2Wait for Facebook to dive below 176. Once that happen just sell and run away, this chart never goes up again.
AMZN has same problems as all companies= a weak consumer!Consumer is tapped out! $6 a gallon gasoline here in CA. Inflation. Higher interest rates. Rising wages. Labor force shortages. Consumers being squeezed on every front. Something has to give! Same as GAP and NFLX evidenced the consumer is cutting back. AMZN is not impervious to the headwinds of the entire economy, they are in the eye of the storm. I say they cannot guide higher. Last quarters AMZN's numbers were fluffed up with BS due to the RIVN stake. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prior to $6 a gallon gasoline, higher mortgage rates, higher credit card rates. I don't believe this will crater like NFLX however it should see a 10-15% haircut in the days following ER and lowered guidance.
SPX Daily CloudSPX daily bouncing on a massive cloud. This is an absolute must hold for the market...
$AMZN Daily Cloud Break AMZN breaking daily cloud as we speak.
Could be good for a swing trade if market can hold
Bought 3240 C 4/22 for $5.05
Amazon and on?Amazon - Short Term - We look to Buy at 3080 (stop at 2962)
A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. A break of 3416 is needed to confirm follow through bullish momentum. The medium term bias remains bullish. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. News events could adversley affect the short term technical picture. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 4162 and 4622
Resistance: 3172 / 3416 / 3762
Support: 2992 / 2805 / 2671
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Amazon Investment OutlookMore downside first to either support line. This move will cool down our indicators. Wave 5 melt-up follows!
Bottoms: 2450/2050 followed by Top: 5000/6000!
60-80% bear market comes after!
Netflix post pandemic risk materialized in Amazon and DisneyThe news from Netflix this morning should not be a surprise to anyone, the company's executives had expressed two years ago during the peak of the pandemic that conditions were as good as they would get. With an increasing number of competitors coming under their skirt, Netflix is now reverting to the mean.
It would appear the third generation rule might be validating itself, as Netflix was the innovator and paved the way for other well-capitalized and more diversified competitors such as #AmazonPrime and #DisneyPlus the latter which has been punished for pushing radical progressive policies.
The key difference between Netflix and Disney is a multi-generational all-American brand, it is well entrenched in the global culture and has a massive war chest from diversified physical operations, cruise ships, music parks, and royalties across other entertainment segments.
Amazon has clearly a massive advantage being the owner of the largest cloud service AWS which in fact is used by Netflix for their operations. In essence, you can argue that Netflix is subsidizing Amazon Prime via operating expenses at USD$6B. Amazon Prime asymmetric advantages combined with the largest capital reserves from the largest online store, placing Netflix at the mercy of AWS.
In fact, we forecast that Netflix revenues and cash flows will continue to deteriorate to the point of no return within the next 24 months, placing itself as a target for Amazon.
$BABA, $AMZN 's dirty little secret.NYSE:BABA
Anyone paying attention to $BABA?
Are you considering buying into the $AMZN stock split?
Are you concerned about chinese stock delisting?
Geopolitics, Index fund Managers, lobbying, market reset by the FED's and technical analysis (the psychology of the investor) have a lot to do with what happens in the future.
Did you know that as of 2021, China-based sellers represented 75 percent of new sellers on Amazon, according to a report by Marketplace Pulse. This marks a significant increase from 47 percent in the previous year.
This large segment of China-based sellers on Amazon has not yet impacted the gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share. Domestic sellers are responsible for most of the total sales.
Three-quarters of new sellers in the top four core Amazon markets — U.S., UK, Germany, and Japan — are based in China. That percentage is the calculated average of the four marketplaces, according to Marketplace Pulse analysis of more than 40,000 sellers that joined those Amazon marketplaces so far in 2021.
So what does this mean for the future of $AMZN prices?
Simply, if BABA gets delisted; the revenge from the Chinese government will be major; you think logistical issues, trucker shortages, and inflation is affecting prices? You've not seen nothing yet!
My assumption is that the market reset is going as planned with major impact on Chinese stocks to limit the momentum of Chinese GDP (#2) against the U.S. (#1).
The U.S. needs China just as much China needs the U.S. so the lobbying power of $AMZN and the rest will ensure the continuity of Chinese presence in the U.S. (those max profits are critically needed).
Oooh before I forget, technical analysis:
Daily Chart
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): 20/50/100/200 EMA (everyone and their mama) are pointing downwards ! This spells bad news, especially going into May (a slow market month)
TTM Squeeze: Squeezing to the bottom; momentum to the downside for both $AMZN and $BABA.
Fib Levels: $BABA - with the current red candle crossing below the .618, there is very high probability that the price action will aim for the 1 fib. This will take us to the previous support and low of $73.28 or a possibility of going below that.
Candle Stick: Summary of last 5 candles equate to a bearish movement. The last pairs look like a Bearish engulfing
Pattern: Down by the sea ... off to the Falling Wedge for both $BABA and $AMZN
News: Do I need to add more to the above? Well, with $NFLX taking a whooping on recent price increase policy, do you think $AMZN may face the same fate?
History: The last 2 earnings have resulted in a downward trend even with great numbers. Everyone and their mama is talking about this stock...
Company is worth Trillions and the consumer base love them... hmm... I really need to be buying the bottom.
AMZN Trading Range PatternAMZN is in a trading range and will be stuck there for a while. This is a normal, necessary pattern. Trading Ranges have inconsistent highs and lows. It is very common to have a deeper trough, aka low, as the trading range heads into its final stages. It is still a great company. It just needs to reinvent and pattern out the extremely high revenues from inflated demand via stimulus checks during the Covid Pandemic, which are a big factor in this stock chart.
