AMZN at an all-time high: To be continued?AMZN reaches a new all-time high of $225.8, positioning itself at the upper boundary of an ascending channel that began on January 6, 2023, when it hit a low of $83.07. This channel, nearing its two-year milestone, has developed in five waves, as outlined by the Elliott Wave Theory:
Wave 1
Period: January 4, 2023 - September 14, 2023
Movement: $81.43 to $145.86 (+79%)
Wave 2
Period: September 14, 2023 - October 26, 2023
Movement: $145.86 to $118.35 (-19%)
Wave 3
Period: October 26, 2023 - July 8, 2024
Movement: $118.35 to $201.20 (+70%)
Wave 4
Period: July 8, 2024 - August 5, 2024
Movement: $201.20 to $151.61 (-25%)
Wave 5 (in progress)
Estimated period: August 5, 2024, to today
Projected movement: $151.61 to a range of $226.00 - $231.85 (+49% to +53% projected)
Key Questions for Caution on AMZN
Will it surpass the channel's upper boundary, setting new all-time highs?
Will it retrace to a dynamic support level within the channel (ranging between $201 and $195)?
Will it break below the ascending channel, signaling the start of a higher-degree correction?
Our opinion is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. Before making any investment, consult with your financial advisor.
Amznshort
Sharing AMZN chart from the TTR We are short as of high of the Sharing AMZN chart from the TTR
We are short as of high of the day
AMZN reports after the close
The price has re-tested the broken ending diagonal channel from below, a bearish signal by itself.
I will take one lotto put. Implied volatility for AMZN stock is about 8% in either direction
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Amazon (AMZN) Technical Analysis and Trade Idea#AMZN has demonstrated a robust bullish trend, recently leaving a notable price gap between 167 and 162. Given the extended move, a retracement back into this gap appears likely as the market seeks equilibrium before March.
Potential Trade Setup:
- Entry: Consider a short position near the current range high.
- Stop Loss: Employ a stop loss 1.5x the Average True Range (ATR) on the daily (1D) timeframe.
- Rationale: This setup targets potential overextension and aligns with the anticipated price rebalancing.
Important Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects my personal market interpretation and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own independent research and thorough risk assessment before making any trading decisions.
Will The Federal Reserve Or Earnings Slow Down Amazon Next Week?Our quick look tonight is at Amazon.com stock. 17 January brought us a bearish signal at the closing price of 151.71. Of the 242 studied similar occasions, the stock successfully reverses downward 95% of the time over the next 10 and 25 trading days. For this instance to be successful, the stock will need to move below 151.71. So far the stock has basically ignored the signal and powered higher. Another thing I have noticed during my research is what I call a signal delay zone. This is when the signal fails to take hold right away, but the stock eventually abides by the signal. Today is currently 6 days post-signal and only have 4 days left to make the 10 day study a success.
The largest delay from a percentage standpoint has been a 2.097% move upward from the signal, before a success was still achieved within 10 days from the signal. The latest a 10 day signal saw the highest delay price and still was successful was eight days after the signal. We are currently 4% above the signal price which does not bode well for a drop over the next four days. Day 10 is January 31st, Federal Reserve decision day. Also after the close on February 1st is the annual earnings call.
There are three likely outcomes, AMZN continues to move up without looking back, the day 10 study fails and the day 25 is successful, or both day 10 and 25 studies become successes. A success will be logged if we reach and cross below the dashed yellow line. I have placed the 10 day success box on the chart as a yellow square. This box is the target bottom for 50% of all successful signals. The other larger green box is the 50% target box for the 25 day study. This provides most of February for AMZN to come down and remain successful in the study.
Applying my modified wave theory to the AMZN chart. My overall outlook is:
We are likely in the final fifth wave of the fifth wave of wave C in wave B. This basically means the stock and market are about to start more prolonged downward movement. This is bearish through the end of 2024. Not sure if we the debt bubble bursts, rate cuts are taken off the table "for now", shipping disruptions in the Red Sea come up during earnings calls or the Fed press conference, or something else causes the foreseen market disruption.
Why we are selling AMZN at 148The market's bull run is set to end based on the indications for seeing on the S&P.
AMZN is one of those stocks that have been quite bullish and a correction is on the card at the 150 mark. The technical indicators are:
1) Daily chart is overbought
2) H4 is overbought and lot of divergence present
3) The upward trend line has been violated which has been intact since October 23, 2023
4) There is a shark pattern in play
This will need to be held for 3-4 weeks until it hits close to 132 or there is a buy pattern. Good luck to you and may the pips be with us.
AMZN SHORTS $$$Hi everyone, just here to update you all on what I will be looking for in AMZN next week. Starting on the Weekly we tapped into a key FVG and took BSL many many months ago and have wicked down now near the close of friday. I Have begun looking at opening about 10% of my initial 2% risk per trade. I will add more accordingly based on Monday's opening if given the chance. now on Daily, we have a clear high and as we speak I'm looking for a lower high to confirm! And on the hourly lastly, we have clear breaks of structure in the bear's favor. I plan on holding this til the 140-136 range and scaling out accordingly! god bless and good luck ;)
AMZN SHORTSAs I stated in the picture. AMZN Is hitting a key Weekly FVG. Here i am watching for a 1H, 4H, and 1D swing high with a recent low broken to enter some put options. I will enter and take profits with PDL being taken out. These setups provide between 50-125% profit based on setup and entry. I will continue to update you all as price shoes more confirmation! Like and shoot your questions below!
Amazon is an opportunity to buyHello traders. There is a great investment opportunity in Amazon shares. With a downtrend break. And break the ascending triangle pattern. Likewise, breaking the resistance at level 104. These are all factors confirming the strong entry of buyers into this giant stock .Note: If you like this analysis, please give your opinion on it. in the comments. I will be happy to share ideas. Like and click to get free content. Thank you
Amazon (AMZN) Breaking the RED line and 100$ wall was a big short signal and now we heading to another big support level which is 80$
Wall Street equities were in the red on Monday with Nasdaq leading declines as investors worried the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening campaign could push the U.S. economy into a recession.
while Amazon workers will go on formal strike for the first time in the UK, The three major U.S. stock indexes were on track for the fourth straight day of declines since Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a more hawkish tone than expected when the central bank raised interest rates. Powell promised further increases even as weak data showed signs of a weakening economy.
The S&P 500, the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq have sold off sharply for December, on track their biggest annual declines since the 2008 financial crisis.
Im not close my shorts till we back to 70$ level
are you READY for 2023?
AMZN short based on Wheel of Time premier datesFrom the chart, you can see that I've marked the dates of the premier of season 1, and also the official trailer date for season 2.
Now, 19th July is probably the peak for this year's recovery.
Amazon stock price will probably start crashing on 1st September because that's the release date for season 2. It will be a Black Friday for AMZN.
AMZN Do Bearish Divergences Predict a Reversal? SHORTAMZN has ascended 15% in the past two months. As shown on the 4H chart, dynamic
resistance has been the red lines designating two standard deviations above mean
VWAPs are anchored in February and early May. The two indicators however suggest
bearish divergence. The zero-lag has lower highs and lower lows on the K / D line
excursions. The Chris Moody dual RSI shows the RSI on the blue daily time frame
dropping and crossing under the black weekly time frame RSI. Fundamentally, according
to the linked article AMZN typically drops 0.34% on Prime Day. Based on all of this,
I am expecting a reversal. Upon confirmation, I will short Amazon in a possible Fibonacci
style retracement.
Unusual Put Option Trade in Amazon (AMZN) Worth $17,212.50KUnusual Put Option Trade in Amazon.com (AMZN) Worth $17,212.50K
On May 10, 2023 at 13:27:06 ET an unusually large $17,212.50K block of Put contracts in Amazon.com (AMZN) was bought, with a strike price of $190.00 / share, expiring in 37 day(s) (on June 16, 2023). Fintel tracks all large options trades, and the premium spent on this trade was 4.04 sigmas above the mean, placing it in the 100.00th percentile of all recent large trades made in AMZN options.
This trade was first picked up on Fintel's real time Options Flow tool, where unusual option trades are highlighted.
What is the Fund Sentiment?
There are 5953 funds or institutions reporting positions in Amazon.com. This is an increase of 125 owner(s) or 2.14% in the last quarter. Average portfolio weight of all funds dedicated to AMZN is 1.69%, a decrease of 19.93%. Total shares owned by institutions increased in the last three months by 0.04% to 6,719,056K shares.
The put/call ratio of AMZN is 0.71, indicating a bullish outlook.
As of April 24, 2023, the average one-year price target for Amazon.com is 135.49. The forecasts range from a low of 90.90 to a high of $164.32. The average price target represents an increase of 27.07% from its latest reported closing price of 106.62.
As of April 24, 2023, the average one-year price target for Amazon.com is 135.49. The forecasts range from a low of 90.90 to a high of $164.32. The average price target represents an increase of 27.07% from its latest reported closing price of 106.62.
The projected annual revenue for Amazon.com is 575,744MM, an increase of 9.69%. The projected annual non-GAAP EPS is 1.72.
What are Other Shareholders Doing?
VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares holds 263,585K shares representing 2.57% ownership of the company. In it's prior filing, the firm reported owning 258,307K shares, representing an increase of 2.00%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in AMZN by 29.95% over the last quarter.
Price T Rowe Associates holds 218,514K shares representing 2.13% ownership of the company. In it's prior filing, the firm reported owning 282,602K shares, representing a decrease of 29.33%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in AMZN by 43.69% over the last quarter.
VFINX - Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares holds 205,175K shares representing 2.00% ownership of the company. In it's prior filing, the firm reported owning 200,916K shares, representing an increase of 2.08%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in AMZN by 30.07% over the last quarter.
Geode Capital Management holds 161,535K shares representing 1.57% ownership of the company. In it's prior filing, the firm reported owning 157,659K shares, representing an increase of 2.40%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in AMZN by 29.59% over the last quarter.
Jpmorgan Chase holds 114,501K shares representing 1.12% ownership of the company. In it's prior filing, the firm reported owning 100,509K shares, representing an increase of 12.22%. The firm decreased its portfolio allocation in AMZN by 22.26% over the last quarter.
Stay Away from AMZN NowTechnical Analysis:
- AMZN is still doing a WXY medium term correction in blue
- In the short term AMZN is finishing wave ((2)) in black before going more down side
- We expect that the correction will be finished at around BMV:60 when wave ((II)) is also completed
- H1 right side is turning up
- H4 right side is turning down
Technical Information:
- Don't buy AMZN now
- We like to buy when the correction WXY is done