USD/CAD - SHORT SCENARIOS - ANALYSE – WThe "USDCAD" is in an uptrend since May – 2021, and it stands to reason that we can expect a top soon if necessary.
-> The USD is the base currency of the pair and should, shortly, enter a correction.
-> At which key areas we can expect a Local Top, I will analyze in more detail in today's post.
-> For this, we will look at the "USDCAD" from the weekly view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
table of contents
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - Used indicators + levels
- 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown
- 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement,
which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - May/2021 -.
-> 0.75 FIB = 1.40031 points | Pending processing
-> 0.786 FIB = 1.40989 points | Pending processing
-> 0.88 FIB = 1.43491 points | Pending processing
> As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart.
2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move,
which started in - July/2022 - and ended in - August/2022 -.
-> 2.618 FIB = 1.40258 points | Pending processing
> As "PASTELL ORANGE" lines - drawn in the chart.
3. | SUPPLY ZONES |
The supply zones formed at the beginning of the downward movement,
thus they were created and in - March-May/2020.
-> MONTH ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.46685 points | Pending processing
-> WEEK ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.41409 points | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 1.39686- 1.40488 points | Pending processing
-> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 1,43750- 1,46685 points | Pending processing
> As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart.
4. | POINT OF INTEREST |
The points of psychological interest,
were created the first time - in 2003 - and showed some reactions since then.
-> POI | 1 | = 1.38500 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 2 | = 1,40000 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 3 | = 1.41000 points | Pending processing
-> POI | 4 | = 1,46500 points | Pending processing
| POI should be used as resistance in the upcoming situation.
| POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact resistance.
> As "TURKIS" line - drawn in the chart.
5. | VOLUME PROFILE |
The volume profile describes the cumulative trading volume at each price level. In the analysis, the volume of the last "TOP" formation was analyzed.
-> VOLUME ZONE = 1.40100 - 1.41100 points | Pending processing
-> POC = 1.40500 - 1.40700 points | Pending processing
| Point of Control - The price level with the highest traded volume.
5. | OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK |
The old market structure break, represents a psychological level because it was the decisive point in the last corrective move.
| MSB = 1.38502 points | Pending processing
PART TWO
Once the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
PLEASE NOTE - the USD is the base currency of the USD/CAD, so we are 100% dependent on the performance of the DXY.
1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.38500 points (Unlikely)
What speaks for this?
- "OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1"
- "POI (1)
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is against it?
- "VOLUME PROFILE" = little traded volume.
- "FIBONACCI" = between 0.618 - 0.75 FIB
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
2nd | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.40000 - 1.41000 points (Very likely)
What speaks in favor of this?
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.75 + 0.786 FIB"
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 2.618 FIB"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1 + D1 (1)"
- "POINT OF INTEREST (2) + (3)
- "VOLUME ZONE
- "POC
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is the argument against it?
- "FIBONACCI" = 0.88 FIB
- "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) liquidity
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
3. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.43500 points (Unlikely)
What speaks in favor of this?
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.88 FIB"
- "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (2)"
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY!
What is the argument against it?
- "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation.
CONCLUSION
It is impossible to say at this time what the exact scenario for "USDCAD" will be.
= Despite this, the key points I have presented, will most likely trigger a reaction.
-> As soon as the TOP formation emerges, I will upload a detailed SHORT execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review.
Thank you and happy trading!
Analyse
🥇 GOLD False resistance breakdownGold is testing the 1908 resistance with a false breakout. Looking for a pullback
1) The price tests the resistance and makes a false-break. Statistically, strong movements occur after false-breaks.
2) The price has been trading in a strong uptrend for a long time, the technical pullback is coming.
3) I assume that after the false-breakout the price can roll back to the nearest liquidity zone, which is below 1890
If the price returns under the uptrend line (black line), gold could fall to the 1894 level
Gold 1hour : Pro taders think for 1900Moderaitor again block me for 30 day for joke issue ,,,my new analyze will come soon for important markets
For now=
I advice low size buystop on high sl=last low 1814 and buy above green arrow ,after pinbar comes sl=1803
Alert =break sma200 1hour is sell signal
good luck
gold 1hour say : 2 scenario on gold we can see 3angel ,so put low size buystop,sellstop is good idea
upper target is fibo161 :1824
downer target is fibo61: 1680
AC indicator daily is green ,if last low 1725 not break we will see +up trend in coming hours ,if low break signal will switc to sell
let wait and see witch way will happened
near arrow we can pick order but wait pinbar come in 1h-4h-daily chart then pick order
note: COT data in bottom is for gold futures, net open order by big banks
gold mothly say : it like go up and 50% pullback 1-from gold weekly and monthly chart we can see gold main trend is +up ,it love buy and up trend ,,, when it 500point go down then 1000point go up
2-when analyse fibo we can see in high time frame like weekly and monthly chart ,when it fly up pull back to fibo 50%, see green arrow exactly
3-AC accelerator oscillator indicator in monthly chart turn green this show if low not break big +up trend will come can go to 1900 then to 2400 , FIBO 161 SHOW 2400 FOR UPPER TARGET
4-on gold chart 1920 support is king of supports !!!! in future months we will see 1920 support too much
strongly we advice 90% looking for buy and be careful from sell, always put SL on high ,break high on gold mean +up trend will start
good luck
dax 4hour scenario : dax reach fibo61 daily ,now must go down we have 3 gap on phisical cash DAX INDEX ,personaly i think red scenario will happend THEN as i predict in low, before dax will see 14800-15000 area
AC indicator show new +up trend will start if if if last low 14500 not break ,,,,if 14500 break signal will switch to sell
ALERT: END OF YEAR +RALLY CAN START
good luck
gold daily : fibo50 : 1840 is in mind of pro traders we have 2 important fibo in left , personaly i belive gold will reach fibo61 1900
break last candel,friday high is powerful buy signal ,so if you dont have buy ,you can put low size buystop on last high 1761
AC indicator give buy signal,if last low not break we will see +up trend in coming days
big banks net open buy increase in last 2 week
so 90% looking for buy and when gold go up ,dont pick reverse sell it can go upper without pullback and dont allow you exit from sell , never forget gold love buy and go up wild
good luck
dowjones 4hour : all scenario on dow 1-70% go down and touch support and go up to fibo161
2-30% go down break support and go downer
above green arrow after pinbar come on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart we must buy Sl: pinbar low and hold to new high ok?
if you have old sell,you must close all or hedge them in fibo50 33760-33770...dont forget dow,index, dax sp500 and gold love buy and uptrend so sell on them is very very dangerous..check weekly chart exactly
note: as predict 10 days ago in low dow can go to 35000 even 3600 so be careful from sell and 90% looking for buy
ALERT: END OF YEAR UP TREND RALLY ON INDEX LIKE DAX NASDAQ SP500 AND DOW CAN START
good luck
nasdaq 1hour : fibo161 show nasdaq target is 12500if you cant pick buy in low,above green arrow you can pick buy after pinbar come on 1h-4h-daily chart ok?
my buys still is open from 11550 and want hold them minimum to 12500,,,can take 7-8 day....in 12500 we have fibo61 daily too
if you have old sell you must close all or hedge them above green arrow ,daily chart tecknical say nasdaq can go to 13000,,, end of year rally
good luck
gold 1hour : frist upper target is fibo61 : 1765pinbar and daily AC indicator give us good buy signal , now AC daily is green and this mean +up trend will start ,if low not break
fibo161 show us 2nd target 1822 so dont close your buy soon
if you have sell,you must close or hedge them now
under red arrow after pinbar comes we can pick sell but very low size and with sl on pinbar high
upper big trendline in 1788 is very important,break it is door for 1900-1920 area ,,,i think this trendline will break
wish you win
GOLD update 2 : buy pinbar comes,looking for buy i pick buy again,,,let see gold futures daily chart candels and AC indicator , it is clear buy
gold after little zigzag will start wave of uptrend to 1840 area
if you have sell, close all and pick buy
dont close your buy soon like new traders ok? try hold it 7-8 day minimum to 1800 , i will inform you where close buy, daily chart technical say gold can see 1900 area
see you in 1800 area lol
gold 4 hour : are you ready for buy gold?2 place i will buy gold 1731 and 1722 with SL1714 then will hold them 7-8 day
technical say gold 1st target is 1840 and then 2st target is near 1900 ,fibo61 daily so dont close your buy soon, after 10.00 point move SL to open price and let it go 7-8 day
bad scenario :if news come and gold break 1715 can go down to 1682, i will buy again there
when gold start go up dont pick reverse sell understand? reverse sell on gold is very dangrous , only under red arrow we can pick very low size sell after sell pinbar come with sl on pinbar high
good luck , if posation win please send me 10$ CHEER from my profile i can buy tradingview subescribtion,becouse i am in iran and for sanctions icant buy myself , thanks
www.tradingview.com
eurusd daily : dont pick sell ,looking for buy in 1.010 and holdin 1-3 day eurusd can go down but we are in start of up trend , dont sell and wait above green arrow pick low size buy and hold it 20-30 day minimum to 1.0000
personaly i belive eurusd main trend will go up ,,, upper long term target is fibo61 :1.12222 so strongly advice dont pick sell, looking for buy in deep and hold to new high
wish you win
gold daily : gold upper target is 1900 area break high is very powerful buy signal for gold
technical say gold can see 1730 support then start new wild uptrend to 1900.. but fibo161 show gold main longterm upper target in 2300 area for 2023 for this still 90% looking for buy in deep and be careful from sell on gold
good luck
DOWJONES 4hour : be careful from sell , upper target is 360002 scenario on dow possible
1- if it can break high door will open to 36000
2-in bad scenario with bad news it can go down to fibo50 then start wave2 of uptrend WE MUST BUY IT ABOVE GREEN ARROW AFTER PINBAR APPEAR IN 1HOUR,4HOUR,DAILY CHART and hold it 7-8 day to 36000 area
if you have old sell, close them soon as soon or hedge them with higher size: 1.5*total sell size
ALERT : NEW YEAR WILD RALLY CAN START SO DONT PICK SELL ,LOOKING FOR BUY dont forget like gold DOW love buy and upside trend
good luck
NASDAQ daily : technical say EMA200 daily 12500 is targetwe strongly advice looking for buy and hold it 7-8 day minimum to EMA200 daily ,orange big line
we can see big banks start buy nasdaq COT data
if nasdaq break red trendline .door will open for 14444 fibo61, then 15000 area
if bad news come and pinbar low break , nasdaq can go down and we must buy it above green arrow and hold them to 12500
if you have old sell you must put sl or hedge buystop on last high 12111, break 12111 high is powerful buy signal for many traders
wish you win
DAX 1hour : 2 scenario possible , we have open gap in downfor buy wait for 14270 area and buy on gap and hold it 3-4 day
if you have old sell, you must close all or hedge them in gap
upper target is 14555 then 14800
keep monitor AC indicator on 4hourchart, it is full green now ,if high not break it has sell signal
strongly advice 90% looking for buy in deep above 14000
good luck