Don't trade Aussie this week!Dear traders,
Among the top 8 forex market currencies, tariffs war affects the Aussie most, because Australia is highly dependent on China.
Rank Trading Partner Exports (A$ million)
1 China 185,141
2 Japan 119,889
3 European Union 31,816
4 United States 30,690
Uncertainty about China's future means, fluctuations in Aussie. I don't trade AUDUSD this week,
only if everything goes well with negotiations between Trump and China, I might use confirmed break over zone of 0.64355 to take long trades.
Regards, Ali
Analysis
XAU/USD Double Bottom + Trendline Break Setup!Major Bullish Move Loading... 📈✨
🧠 Technical Breakdown:
Gold is forming a Double Bottom on the 4H chart after tapping into a key demand zone. The downtrend is weakening, and a clean breakout above the descending trendline could spark a strong bullish rally — this is a textbook reversal setup with premium risk-reward.
📍 Key Insights:
◾ Pattern: Double Bottom — classic bullish reversal.
◾ Structure: Liquidity swept below 3240, now consolidating for a breakout.
◾ Breakout Zone: Trendline resistance near 3245–3250.
◾ Target Area: 3409 resistance — previous swing high & supply zone.
🎯 Trade Setup Idea:
🟢 Entry: Breakout + retest of trendline zone (watch 3240–3250 area)
🔴 Stop Loss: Below 3177 (beneath demand & double bottom low)
🎯 Target: TP at 3409 (major resistance zone)
⚠ Pro Tip:
Let the market confirm! Wait for a bullish engulfing or breakout-retest candle before entering. Confirmation is key when trading reversal patterns like this.
💥 Final Thoughts:
Gold is gearing up for a breakout after defending strong support. If the trendline breaks cleanly, expect bullish momentum to accelerate. Follow the structure, manage your risk, and let price lead the way!
SWDY Trend AnaylsisSWDY stock is in a downward trend. In case of falling, it's expected to break the first support line at 78.025 points, till it reaches the second support line at 76.249 points. In case of rising, it's expected to reach the first support line 78.687, the second support line 78.928, and the third support line at 79.019, which is highly anticipated due to its latest acquisition.
Monitoring USDT- Absolutely not a prediction.
- Just doing this chart to observe 1D (smaller timeframe) on USDT Dominance & Sharing.
- I usually like to use larger TF to reduce the noise on charts ( 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M ).
- USDT.D have to break out 8.4% before 13th December.
- if it does, could mean BTC more downward pressure.
- if it fails, BTC could rally up.
- Patience is the key.
Happy Tr4Ding !
USD/JPY - H1 - Channel Breakout (17.05.2025) The Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 142.40
2nd Support – 140.17
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GBP/USD Flag & Pole Wait For Breakout!Massive Bullish Setup Loading — Eyes on the Breakout!
🧠 Technical Breakdown:
GBP/USD is forming a classic Flag and Pole pattern on the chart — a powerful bullish continuation signal. After a sharp rally forming the pole, price is now consolidating in a flag just under resistance. We're watching for a clean breakout above 1.3337 to confirm the next bullish leg.
📍 Key Levels:
◾ Pattern: Flag and Pole — bullish continuation
◾ Entry (Breakout Confirmation): 1.3337
◾ Target: 1.3887 — projected from pole height
◾ Stop Loss: Below the flag’s lower support (set based on structure)
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔵 Buy After Breakout: Above 1.3337
🔻 Stop Loss: Below the flag’s bottom
🎯 Take Profit: 1.3887
⚠ Pro Tip: Let the breakout happen first! Enter only after confirmation with volume and momentum — this avoids false breakouts.
Let’s stay sharp and catch the wave when it breaks — GBP/USD could deliver big pips ahead!
HelenP. I Euro may reach resistance level and break itHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Observing this chart, we can see how the price appears to be finding stability just above the trend line support. This zone also aligns closely with the local swing low formed after the rejection from the resistance area near 1.1270. Buyers managed to defend this key trend structure, forming a potential higher low setup within the broader bullish framework. The price is now trading below a significant resistance cluster, where both horizontal and supply pressure meet, the 1.1270 to 1.1315 zone. However, the fact that EUR is respecting the rising trend line and hasn't broken below the previous local low suggests that bullish momentum may still be intact. A corrective dip into the trend line could offer the final shakeout before a new leg upward begins. If price manages to build strength around this support and push back toward the resistance zone, a breakout becomes increasingly likely. In such a case, the market may extend toward the 1.1400 area, which I consider my current target. Given the sustained higher lows, trend support, and structure of accumulation forming below resistance, I expect EURUSD to continue pushing upward after this retest phase. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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USD/JPY(20250516)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Chairman Powell: The Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework. Zero interest rate is no longer a basic situation. The wording of underemployment and average inflation rate needs to be reconsidered. PCE is expected to drop to 2.2% in April.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
145.93
Support and resistance levels:
147.26
146.77
146.44
145.42
145.10
144.61
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 145.93, consider buying, the first target price is 146.44
If the price breaks through 145.42, consider selling, the first target price is 145.10
Will the Market Continue to Sink or Rebound?Gold Price Volatility: Will the Market Continue to Sink or Rebound?
💥 Market Outlook:
Today’s market is seeing unpredictable movements, with gold making significant drops and then rebounding sharply in the last two days. Are the recent news developments aligning with the price action, or is it just a major coincidence?
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Looking at the D1 and H4 charts, you can clearly see the breakdown, but gold quickly bounced back to the 325x area and reacted. The 3254–3256 zone is a key level that holds strong for sellers on both daily and H4 candles. If gold continues to hold below this level, the bearish trend remains strong, and another sharp drop could happen before the weekend.
If the 3254–3256 level is broken, the price may push toward the 327x, possibly even the 328x levels. However, this will be dependent on whether this critical support is maintained.
Trend Continuation or Reversal?
From a technical perspective, gold is still in a downtrend, and the current bounce is likely just a retracement before continuing lower. However, in terms of macro news, the USD is continuously dealing with bad inflation data, affecting the recovery of DXY (USD). The market is very sensitive to trap candles, and there may be false breakouts, so proceed cautiously.
There are also some news reports indicating that the US and China have reached a minor détente, but tensions remain around trade restrictions, imports, exports, and the use of rare earth minerals. Things are unpredictable with these two powers. Today, there are updates on tariffs, so keep an eye out!
📊 Key Resistance Levels:
3237
3251
3261
3276
3287
📉 Key Support Levels:
3205
3188
3170
3143
🎯 Trading Plan:
🔵 BUY SCALP:
Entry: 3172 – 3170
SL: 3166
TP: 3176 → 3180 → 3184 → 3188 → 3192 → 3196 → 3200
🔵 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3142 – 3140
SL: 3136
TP: 3146 → 3150 → 3154 → 3158 → 3162 → 3170 → 3180 → 3190
🔴 SELL SCALP:
Entry: 3160 – 3162
SL: 3166
TP: 3156 → 3152 → 3148 → 3144 → 3140 → 3130 → 3120
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3276 – 3278
SL: 3282
TP: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260 → 3255 → 3250 → 3240
⚠️ Risk Management:
With strong volatility today, manage your risk carefully. It’s essential to adhere to your TP/SL to protect your account. Stay cautious, as there is a lot of unpredictability in the market with the upcoming news.
Conclusion:
Given the unpredictability of the market and geopolitical tensions, it’s wise to trade with caution today. Watch the critical support and resistance levels closely and stay flexible, adapting your strategy based on how the market evolves.
📣 Stay tuned for more updates and trade smart!
SRx Health (SRXH): Financial Analysis and Merger with BTTRPre-Merger Financial Overview (Better Choice Company)
Better Choice Company Inc. – renamed SRx Health Solutions Inc. prior to the merger – focused on pet nutrition and wellness products (Halo brand). In 2024, the company reported net revenues of $34.97 million, down from $38.59 million in 2023. Despite the decline in revenue (-9%), gross profitability improved: gross margin rose to 37% in 2024, with gross profit of ~$12.99 million (compared to 30% in 2023, gross profit ~$11.80 million). The drastic reduction in operating costs ($18.96 million in 2024 vs. $32.98 million in 2023) has significantly reduced operating losses. In fact, the net loss for the 2024 financial year was almost eliminated at $0.17 million (compared to a heavy loss of $22.77 million in 2023).
This reversal is partly due to extraordinary items: in 2024, Better Choice recorded a gain of $6.2 million from the extinguishment of debts and liabilities, in addition to avoiding goodwill impairment charges that had weighed on the balance sheet by ~$8.5 million in 2023.
On an adjusted basis, 2024 adjusted EBITDA remained negative at approximately $1.9 million, but was a significant improvement (≈78% lower) compared to the EBITDA loss of approximately $8.6 million in the previous year. Earnings per share (EPS) also decreased from $(32.29)$ to $(0.10)$ due to lower liabilities and an increase in the average number of shares (from ~705,000 to ~1.615 million after reverse stock splits and new issuances). As of December 31, 2024, the company had $3.1 million in cash and had used approximately $2.4 million of its revolving credit facility (limited remaining capacity). Working capital was positive (~$7.9 million at the end of 2024, according to management) thanks to the reduction in short-term debt during the year.
Overall, Better Choice showed signs of a turnaround in 2024: declining revenue but an improved channel mix (closure of the unprofitable direct-to-consumer channel), growing gross margins, and costs under control, with four consecutive quarters of gross margin improvement and three consecutive quarters of reduced losses.
SRx Health Solutions (Canada) Pre-Merger Data
SRx Health Solutions Inc. – the company acquired by Better Choice – is an integrated specialty healthcare services provider in Canada with a different but complementary business model. Prior to the merger, SRx operated one of Canada's largest specialty pharmacy networks, with 35 active pharmacies, 40 specialty infusion clinics, 4 clinical trial centers, and 2 pharmaceutical distribution centers. This platform enabled it to generate annual revenues of C$161.5 million in 2023, with adjusted EBITDA of C$11.4 million (IFRS). These volumes correspond to approximately $120 million in revenue and ~$8.5 million in EBITDA on a pro forma basis in US dollars, indicating operating profitability of around 7% on revenue. Better Choice management highlighted that SRx has shown consistent revenue and cash flow growth in recent years, building its network from 2013 to the present. According to the announcement, SRx has achieved steady growth and positive margins by focusing on high-value segments (specialty drugs and therapies) under the leadership of founder and CEO Adesh Vora, a pharmacist with 24 years of experience in the healthcare industry. It should be noted that SRx's financial statements were prepared in accordance with IFRS and are being converted to US GAAP post-merger; accounting differences may arise, but the pro-forma figures provided give an order of magnitude of SRx's pre-acquisition operations. In summary, prior to the merger, SRx Health was a larger business than Better Choice in terms of revenue (approximately four times larger) and had positive margins, operating in a market—the Canadian specialty pharma market—estimated to be growing strongly (∼11% CAGR through 2030). This context motivated the merger of the two companies, combining SRx's solid recurring revenue base with Better Choice's pet activities.
Better Choice – SRx Health Merger: Strategic Motivations and Synergies
The merger between Better Choice and SRx Health Solutions, announced in September 2024 and completed in April 2025, was presented as a transformative strategic operation. The stated goal is to create a leading global health and wellness company across multiple sectors, offering products and solutions for pets, people, and families in a single integrated group. In practice, the new SRx Health Solutions Inc. combines the pet health & nutrition sector (pet food and wellness products, Halo brand) with the specialty healthcare sector for human patients (specialty pharmacies, clinics, and advanced healthcare services). This diversification aims to capitalize on converging trends: on the one hand, the growing “humanization” of pets and consumer focus on pet health (Better Choice's core business), and on the other, the increasing demand for specialty therapies, highly complex drugs, and personalized healthcare services in Canada (SRx's core business). Michael Young, Chairman of Better Choice, described the transaction as “a transformative opportunity that positions Better Choice as a global leader in the health and wellness industry.” He praised the SRx team's work in building their healthcare network and highlighted that, once combined, there are immediate operational and growth synergies estimated at over $1.7 million that the group expects to realize quickly. These synergies are expected to come from the integration of infrastructure and distribution networks, as well as the implementation of cross-growth strategies between the two entities. For example, SRx could support the distribution of Halo products in new markets (Canada and pharmaceutical channels) and, conversely, Better Choice could introduce SRx services/solutions in the US market or online, leveraging its digital presence. In addition, the merger strengthens the capital structure: Better Choice, which was a micro-cap with limited resources, gains a larger, more capitalized business, while SRx gains access to the US capital market through its NYSE American listing (without going through a traditional IPO). From an organizational standpoint, SRx founder Adesh A. Vora will assume the role of CEO of the new SRx Health Solutions Inc., bringing his extensive experience in the pharmacy sector, while former Better Choice CEO Kent Cunningham will lead the Halo (pet) business unit within the group. The combined board of directors includes five members from both companies to balance expertise (Vora is also appointed Chairman). In summary, the strategic rationale for the merger lies in the creation of a 360° wellness player with complementary assets and cross-selling opportunities, capable of competing in both the premium pet and specialized healthcare markets. The transaction was approved by a large majority of Better Choice shareholders in March 2025 (over 71% of voting shares, with authorization to issue ~30 million new shares for the acquisition), a sign of confidence in the prospects outlined by management. Synergies and prospects: According to official statements, the new combined group has a significantly strengthened financial profile. On a pro-forma basis, in the first six months of 2024, the two companies would have totaled ~$95 million in combined revenues. Projections for 2025 indicate combined revenues of over $270 million and EBITDA of over $10 million, a significant jump from Better Choice's historical standalone figures. If achieved, these targets would imply significant growth driven by the contribution of SRx (which alone would account for the majority of revenues) and the launch of joint initiatives. The prospective EBITDA margin would still be around 4% of revenues, indicating that management is primarily focused on expanding business volume while maintaining modest margins, likely due to growing investments and integration. Initial cost synergies ($1.7 million) could slightly improve profitability in the short term, while further growth synergies (e.g., pet/pharma cross-selling, geographic expansion) could impact sales and margins in the medium term. On the operational side, SRx brings expertise in the regulated healthcare sector, relationships with public authorities (e.g., healthcare reimbursements in Canada), and a technology and logistics-distribution platform for specialty drugs. Better Choice contributes an established consumer brand in holistic pet food and developed international e-commerce and retail channels (Amazon, Chewy, distribution in Asia, etc., as evidenced by APAC growth of +9% in 2024). SRx Health Solutions' new stated mission is to “become the most innovative wellness company” by investing in product innovation and digital initiatives to simplify access to care (as per the May 2025 investor presentation). The merger also involves a corporate name change: as of April 30, 2025, Better Choice officially assumed the name SRx Health Solutions Inc. and its stock ticker changed from “BTTR” to “SRXH,” reflecting its new multi-sector focus. In parallel, the company has taken steps to strengthen its financial structure: concurrently with the closing, a $8.8 million private placement was completed with an institutional investor at a price of $2.18 per share (above the last previous market price). This investment provided immediate liquidity of approximately $8 million (before expenses) and signals of confidence from new shareholders. In addition, SRx Health (the Canadian part) had improved its financial standing by previously converting $4 million of debt into equity (a transaction announced in early 2024) in order to enter the merger with strengthened working capital. Overall, therefore, the transaction was motivated by industrial logic of diversification and scale, supported by financial considerations (capital strengthening and access to capital) and well received at the shareholders' meeting. The effective integration of the businesses and the realization of the promised synergies now remain to be accomplished, in a market environment that presents growth opportunities (expanding pet and specialty pharma sectors) but also significant competitive challenges.
Competitive Comparison and Industry Benchmark
From an industry perspective, SRx Health Solutions Inc. is an atypical entity in that it operates in both the Healthcare sector (pharmacies, clinics, healthcare services) and the Consumer Pet Care sector. Officially, the company is classified in the healthcare sector (under “Drug Manufacturers/General,” although distribution and services are its main activities). It is therefore useful to assess SRXH's position in relation to two competitive areas: competitors in the human health market (specialty pharma/health services) and players in the pet food/wellness market. Specialty pharmacy/healthcare services sector: In Canada, the specialty pharmacy market is fragmented but has large players such as the specialty divisions of Shoppers Drug Mart (Loblaw) and the McKesson Canada network, as well as independent operators. With ~$120 million in revenues (pro-forma 2023), SRx is a small-to-medium-sized operator compared to national leaders, but is one of the few with a widespread presence in all 10 Canadian provinces. Its focus on highly complex drugs and infusions places it in a niche with relatively high barriers to entry (given the need for clinical expertise, special licenses, and cold chain logistics management for biological drugs, etc.). The Canadian specialty drug market is rapidly expanding (valued at ~$7.4 billion US$ in 2024, expected to reach ~$13.9 billion by 2030), which provides SRx with a favorable tailwind for organic growth. In terms of profitability, more mature players in the healthcare sector often report double-digit EBITDA margins; SRxH forecasts an EBITDA margin of ~3-4% for 2025, indicating that there is room for improvement as operations are integrated and economies of scale are realized. Compared to healthcare industry financial benchmarks, SRx currently has low net margins (historically, Better Choice was loss-making and SRx Canada presumably had modest net profits) and low capitalization, factors that could be weaknesses when compared to giants such as CVS Health, Walgreens, or even Canadian chains backed by large groups, which enjoy ample financial resources and lower capital costs. On the other hand, SRx may have the flexibility of a more agile player dedicated exclusively to the specialist segment, without the legacy of generalist retail networks; its vertical integration (clinics + pharmacy + clinical trials) is a distinctive feature compared to many competitors focused solely on drug distribution. Pet food & wellness sector: SRxH's Halo business unit operates in the premium pet food market, competing with established brands such as Blue Buffalo (General Mills), Royal Canin (Mars), Hill's (Colgate-Palmolive) and other natural/holistic brands. This is a highly competitive but growing market, driven by premiumization and higher per capita spending on pets. With ~$35 million in annual revenue, Halo is small compared to global leaders (just think that the pet care divisions of giants such as Nestlé and Mars have revenues in the tens of billions). Even compared to focused rivals such as Petco Health & Wellness (WOOF) – a US chain that has integrated retail and veterinary services – Halo is small (Petco has annual revenues of ≈$4 billion). However, Halo has built a loyal niche in the holistic/vegan segment and benefits from a strong presence in e-commerce (Amazon, Chewy), where it has recorded significant growth (+32% on Chewy/Amazon in Q4 2024). The competitive challenge in pet food is mainly distribution (shelf space in pet and grocery chains) and marketing to differentiate the brand – areas where the injection of capital and greater visibility as part of SRxH could help. A potential competitive advantage for SRxH is its integrated “family-pet” offering: few operators can address the well-being of people and their animals at the same time. This innovative approach could attract a segment of consumers who are sensitive to holistic solutions for the whole family (e.g., health programs involving both human and animal patients). However, it is equally true that unified brand communication will need to avoid confusion: SRx Health will need to clearly explain its multi-business identity so as not to dilute the Halo brand equity in pet shops or SRx's credibility with clinicians and patients.
Relative Strengths and Weaknesses.
Below I summarize the main competitive strengths and weaknesses of SRx Health Solutions Inc. in the sector context:
Strengths
Complementary Diversification: Integrated business on two growing fronts – specialty healthcare and pet wellness – with cross-selling opportunities and mitigation of sector risks.
Position in Expanding Markets: Presence in the Canadian specialty pharma market (CAGR ~11%) and premium pet care (global growth trend thanks to pet humanization).
Extensive Operating Network: SRx's infrastructure of 35 pharmacies and 40 clinics across Canada – difficult for competitors to replicate quickly – combined with an international digital and distribution platform for pets.
Improved Operating Performance: Better Choice's recent track record of improving margins and reducing losses, indicating the effectiveness of restructuring initiatives; SRx already profitable at the operating level (positive EBITDA) prior to the merger.
Management and Expertise: Management team enriched by Adesh Vora's 20 years of experience in the pharmacy sector and Better Choice's expertise in pet digital marketing; renewed governance with representatives from both sides of the business.
Refinanced Financial Structure: Reduction of Better Choice's legacy debt (extinction of $6.2 million in debt in 2024) and new capital raised ($8.8 million) providing liquidity for investment and growth, improving the financial profile in the short term.
Weaknesses:
Small Size vs. Big Players: Pro-forma revenue of ~$120 million represents a marginal share in the target markets (<<1%); smaller scale means less bargaining power with suppliers and lower economies of scale compared to giants such as CVS, Nestlé Purina, Mars, etc.
Low Profitability and History of Losses: Expected EBITDA margin of ~4%, well below the industry average; net margin has been negative or slim to date. The new group's profitability is yet to be established and integration could initially generate costs.
High Dilution and Low Capitalization: The transaction diluted the original shareholders (85% of the new company belongs to SRx shareholders) and the free float remains limited. With a market cap of only ~$15–20M, SRXH risks low visibility among institutional investors, high volatility, and difficulty raising additional capital in the stock market.
Complexity of Integration: Merging a US pet retail/CPG company with a Canadian healthcare services company poses operational, cultural, and regulatory challenges. Synergies are not guaranteed if the two divisions remain too distinct; IT integration, logistics, and coordination of very different teams will be necessary.
Focus and Brand Clarity: Risk of strategic dispersion: covering both the veterinary/pet and human healthcare sectors simultaneously could make it difficult to communicate a clear identity. Rebranding could confuse customers (e.g., veterinarians vs. doctors vs. pet consumers) if not managed carefully.
Regulatory and Local Market Risks: The healthcare business is concentrated in Canada, subject to stringent regulation and dependent on public reimbursements; any policy changes could impact SRx. The pet segment operates in a highly competitive consumer market that is sensitive to pet owner preferences (where very large brands invest heavily in marketing). Any contraction in discretionary spending (e.g., recession) could affect premium pet sales.
Conclusions : SRx Health Solutions (SRXH) emerges from the merger as a renewed and multifaceted company with financial indicators that differ significantly from Better Choice's past. Pre-merger financial data highlights Better Choice's turnaround in 2024 (drastic reduction in losses, improved adjusted EBITDA) and SRx's strength in Canada (stable and positive revenues, extensive infrastructure). Following the merger, the group has high growth potential (expected 2025 revenue three times higher than the sum of the previous companies, new business lines) but will need to demonstrate to the market that it can successfully integrate operations to translate that revenue into tangible profits. The current market valuation reflects the risks and dilution, as shown by SRXH's share price below the $1 threshold. The next few quarters will be crucial: the publication of the post-merger consolidated results and the execution of synergies will clarify whether SRx Health can realize the vision of a “global wellness company” outlined by management. Investors will be watching the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in both segments and improve margins as it moves toward net profitability. A clear communication plan and strategic focus will also be crucial to leverage the company's distinctive strengths without diluting their value. Ultimately, SRx Health (SRXH) represents a unique case of cross-pollination between the pet and healthcare sectors, with financial metrics to be rebuilt post-merger but with interesting market opportunities if it can consolidate its position and convince stakeholders of the sustainability of its new business model.
Sources : Official SEC documents (10-K 2024 and 10-Q1 2025) and company press releases; d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net; IR presentations and GlobeNewswire; globenewswire. com; d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net; industry market data and financial websites (Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, FMP) for quotes and comparisons; stockanalysis.com; nasdaq.com; databridgemarketresearch.com.
After $105K Peak, Bitcoin May Revisit 0.382 FOB Level!CRYPTOCAP:BTC is pulling back after hitting a high of $105,800
If you look at the daily chart, we haven’t seen any healthy pullback, the price has gone straight up.
In my opinion, a retest of the 0.382 FOB level around $94K would be a healthy correction for Bitcoin. Based on the liquidation heatmap, we’re also seeing liquidity building up at lower levels.
This is one of the signs of a pullback, which is important for a sustainable and healthy market.
Stay tuned and follow for more updates!
btc . may . w3 . friyesterdays LONG was beautiful. ny ran aLow, and never looked back pushing higher.
. new aver entry . 102353
i'm right now scalling into new limit LONGs
. aLow . wVWAP . cw0.5 . liquidity grad - in this BULLISH environment
a last limit order is placed at pdTPO
. 102862.5
SL has been lifted to give new trade breathing room
i see us go to cwHigh . 105871, to which tp1 has been changed.
cheers
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 16, 2025 GBPUSDU.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in April as the cost of services fell the most since 2009. The Bureau of Labour Statistics on Thursday released data that the
US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4 per cent in April, down from 2.7 per cent previously. This figure was weaker than market expectations of 2.5%. In addition, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 10 May were 229 thousand, compared to the previous week's 229 thousand (revised from 228 thousand). This value was in line with initial estimates.
Swap markets priced in the first Fed rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting and expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year. Some analysts believe policymakers may wait until December.
Favourable UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data suggests the UK's economic health is robust, dampening hopes of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE). This, in turn, provides some support for the British pound against the US dollar.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3350, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3550
GOLD 1H Chart Analysis – Market Structure Shift & Liquidity ZoneThis 1-hour chart for XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs. U.S. Dollar) from TradingView displays a detailed technical analysis highlighting key market structure events such as Break of Structure (BOS), Change of Character (CHoCH), and liquidity zones. A descending trendline indicates bearish pressure, while recent CHoCH suggests a possible bullish reversal. Key supply and demand zones are marked in red, with liquidity grabs and imbalances visualized using shaded areas. Price currently hovers around the 3,211 level, approaching a resistance zone after reclaiming bullish momentum. Traders may look for reactions near the supply zone or a break above trendline resistance for confirmation.
EUR/USD - Triangle Formation (16.05.2025)The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.1321
2nd Resistance – 1.1376
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BTCUSD Next MoveNote: This chart presents a short-biased plan for BTC/USD based on key technical levels and price action signals.
🔍 Key Levels
: Resistance / All-Time High Area: $105,000
: Support Zone: Around $101,000
: Sell Trade TP1: $99,000
: Sell Trade TP2: $96,000
: Final Target: $93,500
: Critical Breakdown Level: $101,000 (Support)
📌 Plan Breakdown
🟦 Bearish Bias Setup:
> The market is consolidating between $101,000 support and $105,000 resistance, forming a range-bound structure near all-time highs.
> A breakdown below $101,000 support with a confirmed candle close below that level would trigger a sell signal.
> Rewritten chart note:
If the price breaks below the $101,000 support area and a candle closes beneath it, we can consider initiating a sell trade.
🔽 Downside Path:
: If the price breaks the support:
: First target: $99,000 — minor support.
: Second target: $96,000 — highlighted range zone.
: If the price breaks below $96,000, expect further downside toward $93,500 (final target).
🔄 Sideways Possibility:
: If the price breaks below $101,000 but fails to push through $96,000, the market may range between $96K–$99K before choosing a direction.
: The purple box (around $96K) is expected to be choppy — a break below confirms strong bearish continuation.
BITCOIN BTC Is Entering Into The Correction Read Caption Bitcoin Chart Analysis: Potential Correction Incoming
In my opinion, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of entering a correction phase. The price is approaching its previous all-time high (ATH), and historically, such levels often act as strong resistance. With the market exhibiting signs of exhaustion and profit-taking behavior, a short-term pullback or consolidation could be expected before any further bullish continuation.
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Would you like a more technical version with indicators (like RSI, MACD, or Fibonacci levels), or a visual chart to accompany
USD/JPY - Trendline Breakout (14.05.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 145.34
2nd Support – 143.81
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AUD/CHF - Trendline Breakout (15.05.2025)The AUD/CHF Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.5338
2nd Support – 0.5308
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EUR/USD Triangle Breakout (15.05.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1085
2nd Support – 1.1030
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btc . may . w3 . thuin retrospect
- SHORT towards 2pm (UTC+2) . into wOpen + fib resis - was the TOD
- compounding LONG gave a new avg LONG
entry . 102586
sl . 100017
tp1 . 104576
tp2 . 105871
for bullish continuation, price around 2pm needs to be a support zone.
if we see it the other way around, we could rotate to lower prices.
if price breaks out above 102586, we TRAP NEW SHORTS - which came in at 102100 . 20mil vol . push price back into 0.75% weekly range for tp1
Is DAX ready for a slight correction lower?We are watching the German XETR:DAX as it is currently struggling to go for a new all-time high. Can this be the moment for a deeper correction lower?
Let's dig in...
MARKETSCOM:GERMANY40
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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Gold - $3160 before the next move up?Introduction
Gold is currently exhibiting interesting price behavior across multiple timeframes, reflecting a mix of short-term bullishness within a broader context of consolidation. On the one-hour chart, gold is trading within a well-defined rising channel, suggesting a controlled upward correction following a strong impulsive move downward. This upward movement appears to be a retracement rather than a full reversal, especially when analyzed in conjunction with the higher timeframes.
Daily tight range
Zooming out, gold remains range-bound between the key levels of $3,500 and $3,200. The market has been oscillating within this wide horizontal band, making relatively equal highs and lows. This type of price action typically signals indecision or accumulation, where neither buyers nor sellers are firmly in control. Such a range can often precede a more decisive move in either direction once a breakout occurs. Until then, the market remains reactive to both support and resistance zones within this range.
Latest Gold sell-off
Yesterday’s trading session introduced a notable shift in momentum, as gold posted a large bearish candle on the one-hour chart, marking a sudden and aggressive sell-off. This move established a short-term bearish impulse. Since that moment, however, the price has been gradually recovering, climbing back within the confines of the rising channel. This rebound appears corrective in nature and has yet to reclaim the previous levels before the sell-off. Above the current price action lies a one-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could be an area of interest for liquidity hunters. Should gold manage to break out to the upside of the channel, it is quite possible that price action will aim to fill this FVG, which sits around the $3,300 level. This could represent a short-term bullish target before any potential continuation lower.
Bearish scenario
On the flip side, the more compelling scenario from a technical standpoint lies on the downside. If gold fails to sustain its upward trajectory and breaks below the lower boundary of the rising channel, the probability of a move toward the strong support level at $3,160 increases significantly. This level is particularly noteworthy because it aligns with multiple technical confluences. It represents a historical support area where price has previously reacted strongly, and it coincides with the so-called “golden pocket” of the Fibonacci retracement, typically considered a high-probability reversal zone by many traders. The presence of this confluence suggests that a breakdown could trigger a swift move toward this level, possibly attracting buyers once again if the support holds.
Bullish scenario
While the potential to move higher toward the $3,300 region and fill the FVG remains valid, especially if the current bullish momentum within the channel continues, it is, in my view, the less probable scenario. The recent sharp downward candle suggests that sellers have established control in the short term, and the current upward movement may simply be a retracement before a continuation lower.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the most likely and technically supported path for gold appears to be a breakdown from the rising channel, followed by a decline toward the $3,160 support level. This zone, bolstered by historical significance and Fibonacci confluence, presents a strong target for price if bearish momentum resumes. While a temporary push toward $3,300 is possible, especially to fill the FVG, it should be seen as a lower-probability scenario compared to the downside risk currently unfolding.
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