Fundamental Market Analysis for August 16, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) bounced back against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, possibly due to Japan's recent second quarter GDP growth, which supports the possibility of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike in the near future.
However, the Yen could face challenges from political uncertainty in Japan due to reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not seek re-election as party leader in September, effectively ending his term as Prime Minister.
The USD/JPY pair is declining as the US dollar loses ground amid lower Treasury yields. In addition, traders are fully pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
However, the dollar received support as recent better-than-expected US economic data eased market fears of a US recession. In addition, later in the North American session, preliminary data on Michigan consumer sentiment index for August and building permits for July will be released.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level
Analysis
XAGUSD ( BREKOUT DESCENDING CHANNEL ) ( 4H )XAGUSD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , after breakout channel and trading below turning level at 27.96.
TURNING LEVEL : the price of this level at 27.96 , so until the price trade below this level indicates likely to reach a support level (1) , but if the breaking by open 4h candle above this level reach of a resistance level (1) .
RESISTANCE ZONE : this zone between 28.84 and 29.65 , in order to see this zone the price need breaking turning level at 27.96 , breaking this price indicates an increase and reaching the resistance level (1) at 28.84 , then stabilizing above resistance level (1) likely to reach of a resistance level (2) at 29.65 , after breaking this zone it will be attempt to reach resistance level (3) at 30.82 , selling have already increase in this zone .
SUPPORT ZONE : this zone between 26.68 & 26.07 , until the price trading below turning level or stabilizing below this level indicates to reach of a support level (1) at 26.68 , by open 4h or 1h candle below support level (1) , it indicates to reaching support level (2) around 26.07
CORRECTIVE : the price corrective at 27.96 , before dropping .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL :28.84 , 29.65 , 30.82 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 26.68 , 26.07 .
NAS100USD ( BETWEEN SUPPLY ZONE AND DEMAND ZONE ) ( 4H )NAS100USD
HELLO TRADERS
price of nas100usd trading nearby support trendline , currently price above demand zone and below supply zone , breaking down each of these determine the direction of the market .
Tendency, the price inside sensitive are between supply and demand zone
Upward Zone : until the price trading demand zone at 17,772 , price rising to reach a resistance level (1) at 18,342 , to ensure rise the price should be breaking supply zone by closing 4h candle above it to reach resistance level (2) 18,696 , then to 19,552 .
Downward Zone: as long as the price trading below supply zone , starting to fall to reach support level (1) at17,772 , the by closing 4h or 1h candle below it reach to next level around 17,270 , to confirm decline price must be breaking the demand zone for a support zone between 16,985 and 16,649 .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 18,342 , 19,552 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 17,772 , 17,270$ , 16,985 ,16,649 ( support zone ) .
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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 14, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is trading on a flat note near 1.09900 in the early European session on Wednesday. Traders are opting for a wait-and-see approach ahead of important economic data releases from the Eurozone and the US. Keep a close eye on the Eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) and the US consumer price index (CPI) for July.
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for US final demand rose 2.2% y/y in July versus 2.7% in the previous month, lower than the 2.3% expected. The monthly PPI increased 0.1% y/y after rising 0.2% in June. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.4% y/y in July, up from 3.0% in June, below the market consensus forecast of 2.7%.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September, while a 50 bps rate cut in September is not out of the question, but it will be entirely data dependent. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday emphasized that the latest economic data has given him "more confidence" that the Fed will be able to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, more evidence is needed before he would be willing to support an interest rate cut.
The Eurozone economy is estimated to have grown 0.3% in the second quarter from the previous quarter and 0.6% from a year earlier. Weaker than expected GDP growth figures may have a negative impact on the Euro (EUR) exchange rate against the US Dollar (USD).
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.09900 if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions. On the rebound take Sell positions.
EURUSD ( TRADING INSIDE DESCENDING CHANNEL ) ( UNDER CPI ) (4H)EURUSD
HELLO TRADERS
currently of the price trading inside descending channel and stabilizing below turning level , today at 3.30 we have a CPI news that has a huge impact on market movements .
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , until trading below turning level around 1.101 .
Upward Zone : for an upward movement to occur , the price needs to break through the turning level at 1.101 , leading to rise that could reach the resistance level (1) at 1.105 , if the price breaks and stabilizing above this level it may attempt to reach resistance zone between 1.109 and 1.113 .
Downward Zone: as long as the price remain below the turning level at 1.094 , it may drop towards the support level (1) at 1.094 , if the price breaks this level with a 4h candle closing below it , it suggest further decline towards the support zone between 1.088 and 1.084 .
CORRECTIVE : currently price it will be attempt to retest to reach a turning level at 1.101before dropping .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 1.105 ,1.109 , 1.113 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 1.094 , 1.088 , 1.084 .
Alert!🚨 Bitcoin Update 🚨
In the past day, not much has happened in the crypto market. On the four-day timeframe, we still see a bearish signal indicated by the Supertrend indicator on the Bitcoin chart. As I've mentioned before on the channel, this suggests that the trend on the four-day timeframe remains bearish, with the price forming lower highs and lower lows. However, it's important to note that during this bearish trend, we may occasionally see pumps to the upside.
While the price has been following this bearish trend, it is also forming a massive descending broadening wedge pattern. I've recently discussed this on the channel, with resistance around $68.5K and support around $53.5K. As long as the price stays between this support and resistance, and particularly while it remains below resistance, the trend is still forming lower highs and lower lows.
If we eventually see a confirmed breakout with candles closing above this resistance, it would set up a major bullish price target for this descending broadening wedge pattern. However, as of now, we have not confirmed a breakout, which means we do not yet have a confirmed bullish price target. Instead, the trend remains bearish as the price continues to sit below this resistance.
#Bitcoin
USD/JPY SELL STOP@146.808Hi Traders we have another potential sell trade on USD/JPY SELL. analysis taken from H4 to H1. last week trade played very well. this week still starting on good side.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 13, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday. Safe-haven currency flows may limit the yen's decline, which could be linked to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
A special session of the Japanese parliament is scheduled for August 23 to discuss the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise interest rates last month. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be invited to the session, organized by the lower house's financial affairs committee, government sources reported citing Reuters.
The USD/JPY pair is gaining support amid easing pressure on the U.S. dollar due to lower expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September fell to 50% from 85% last week. Nevertheless, the betting markets continue to rate the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting at least 25 bps at 100%.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Keep your eyes on the RBNZ rate decision!Expect some action after the RBNZ rate decision.
Watch the video for more details.
FX_IDC:NZDUSD EASYMARKETS:NZDUSD
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Oil crushing it's slippery slope NYMEX:MCL1!
After nearly a month of selling, oil seems to be taking back buyer's momentum that first started on July 17th, 2024 and ended on August 6th, 2024. When the creation of the "W" formed shortly after hitting a 10 min supply area, this signaled the last moments of Oil's sell trend. As we go into this week, we see that oil is still coming in hot to take back supply area's that it created on the 1hr timeframe, but it's due for a pullback. Depending on after market movements, we can possibly see Oil start to pullback to continue making buy structure to the upside. Oil has a good possibility to make it back to the areas of 83.50 and 84.50. Since in current time right now as I'm typing this, Oil has already broken 3 LH's (lower high) that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024. We can see pullbacks in the range of 78.84 and 77.12 to potentially see continuation of buying movements. Within this outlook, my current analysis is buyers market until price shows other signs.
Cisco (CSCO): Ready for a Post-Earnings Drop?As we approach Cisco's earnings report, it's time for another pre-earnings analysis. We're examining both the higher time frame and then zooming in for a closer look. On the higher time frame (Daily), Cisco is following a nearly perfect trend channel. While a retest of the lower range of this trend channel seems the most probable, I suspect that the price could breach this level and wick into our target zone between $38 and $32.
If this scenario unfolds as anticipated, it could present a great opportunity to take a long position in Cisco, potentially holding into 2025 for more significant gains.
The bearish outlook is further supported by a shoulder-head-shoulder formation that has caught our eye. Although we typically don't trade based on these formations, this one is hard to ignore. Ideally, we'd see a breach below the lower trend channel range, followed by a retest, and then a sell-off into our target zone.
We're watching closely for the first signs of movement following Wednesday's earnings report.
XAUUSD 4HR Update XAUUSD 4HR Update
Following the previous analysis we correctly identified the market pivot off the key psych quarter zone and saw a bullish surge back up into the 2400s where price now sits at 2427.45, Going forwards I foreseeing price to make a push for the key level of 2450 and complete the next phase section of 2500 target.
Check out my last update analysis to see how we progressed and leave a comment with your thoughts and ideas below :)