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Fundamental Market Analysis for March 5, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD pressed the gas pedal and rose 1.4% on Tuesday, climbing 140 pips in a single session as markets sold off the US dollar and bet that US President Donald Trump will find a reason to backtrack on his tariff threats. Key data for both Europe and the US is due out later this week, but trade war rhetoric will rule the roost in the middle of the week. US President Donald Trump, staying true to form, is already laying the groundwork for a U-turn on his own tariff threats. At midnight Eastern Time, a package of stiff tariffs of 25% on imported goods from Canada and Mexico went into effect. However, despite a brief bout of risk aversion early in the U.S. session, currency markets quickly regained their footing and placed a big bet on another retraction or postponement of tariff policy from the Trump administration. Economic data will be sparse in the European market mid-week as traders in the vols are wringing their hands in anticipation of two beats - the European Central Bank's (ECB) March rate meeting on Thursday, and the latest iteration of U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled for Friday. This week's NFP data is likely to attract even more attention than usual as investors will begin to watch for any signs of economic weakness as consumers and businesses begin to crack under the weight of President Trump's global trade war threats. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percent on Thursday, bringing the main discount rate to 2.65% from 2.9%, while the deposit rate is expected to fall by a similar amount to 2.5% from 2.75% as the ECB tries to get ahead of rising recession risks and support the EU's broad and diverse domestic economy. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.06100, SL 1.05700, TP 1.06800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
$DOGE Market Update📊 $DOGE/USDT Market Update Welcome to today's analysis! Let’s break down the current price action on CRYPTOCAP:DOGE and its potential movement. 🌐 Overview: CRYPTOCAP:DOGE Testing Key Resistance & Double Bottom Formation 📉 CRYPTOCAP:DOGE was in a downtrend, but now it's showing signs of potential reversal, as price has formed a double bottom pattern. 🔄 Current Scenario: CRYPTOCAP:DOGE is testing the red resistance zone, which is a critical level that needs to be broken for further bullish confirmation. If DOGE successfully breaks out, the target will be the blue line level, which was the previous lower low (LL). However, if the price gets rejected, we could see another pullback before another breakout attempt. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch 🔴 Resistance Zone: Red Level (Needs breakout for bullish continuation) 🔵 Target Level: Blue Line (If breakout is successful, price may reach previous LL) 🛠️ Trade Scenarios 📌 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above Red Resistance & Double Bottom Confirmation) If CRYPTOCAP:DOGE breaks and holds above the red resistance zone, this would confirm bullish momentum, with a potential move to the blue target level. The double bottom pattern would also signal a strong reversal if confirmed. 📌 Bearish Scenario (Rejection at Resistance) If CRYPTOCAP:DOGE fails to break out, the price may pull back, potentially forming a higher low before another breakout attempt. 📌 Conclusion CRYPTOCAP:DOGE is at a critical resistance zone, testing a double bottom breakout level. A successful breakout would confirm bullish momentum, targeting the blue line level. However, a rejection may lead to a pullback before another attempt.
by WaveRiders2
$TRUMP Market Update📊 $TRUMP/USDT Market Update Welcome to today's analysis! Let’s break down the current price action on $TRUMP and what to expect next. 🌐 Overview: $TRUMP Approaching Key Resistance 📉 $TRUMP was in a downtrend after breaking a key support level. Now, the price is approaching the red resistance zone, which was previously a support level before the strong breakdown. 🔄 Current Scenario: The red resistance zone is a critical level that needs to be broken for a trend shift to bullish. If $TRUMP successfully breaks above this resistance, it could confirm a bullish trend, with the next target being the blue line level. However, if price gets rejected, we could see another pullback or consolidation before another breakout attempt. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch 🔴 Resistance Zone: Red Level (Needs breakout to confirm bullish momentum) 🔵 Target Level: Blue Line (If breakout is successful) 🛠️ Trade Scenarios 📌 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above Red Resistance) If $TRUMP breaks and holds above the red resistance zone, this would confirm bullish momentum and a potential move toward the blue line target. 📌 Bearish Scenario (Rejection at Resistance) If $TRUMP fails to break out, we could see a pullback or consolidation, meaning the downtrend could still continue. 📌 Conclusion $TRUMP is at a key resistance zone—a breakout could confirm a bullish trend, targeting the blue line level, while a rejection may lead to further downside movement. Traders should watch for confirmation before making a move.
by WaveRiders2
EUR/CAD Buy @ Support ZoneThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a AB=CD Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.5128 2nd Resistance – 1.5185 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
8
Trump's Bombshell Strategic Reserve Announcement.Let's summarize the situation. We were on the edge of slipping into a bear market, with CRYPTOCAP:BTC under heavy selling pressure and looking bearish on daily, hourly, and weekly timeframes. A lot of people were caught off guard, selling their crypto to prepare for shorts and ending up sidelined—I was one of them, and I’m pissed. Since I live in Asia, I was asleep when it happened, and so was the entire Asian market. Then, conveniently, Trump announced the strategic crypto reserve, which was originally scheduled for Friday to coincide with the White House crypto summit. Meanwhile, the tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday. On the global stage: - The rejection of Zelensky has pushed Europe to react, with some leaders now considering sending troops to Ukraine. This could seriously complicate things for the Trump administration and potentially escalate into WWIII. No joke, this is a serious situation. - Israel has decided to destroy Gaza completely and is now enforcing a full-scale siege, which will cause massive international backlash. The situation there never been so bad. - Recession fears are mounting, and we can see markets starting to shake and correct. And then Trump drops his crypto reserve announcement… - This was a sloppy reveal—posted only on his own platform, not on X—which caused panic, as people scrambled to verify the source, thinking it was fake news. - Even worse, the initial announcement didn’t mention Bitcoin or Ethereum! Instead, they listed CRYPTOCAP:XRP , Cardano, and Solana as part of the reserve, which made people think their accounts were hacked. Later, they corrected it, clarifying that CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH are at the "heart" of the reserve. So yeah… Sunday night, completely unexpected, and poorly executed. What does this mean for CRYPTOCAP:BTC ? - Weekly timeframe: Nothing has changed—it’s still in a serious correction, and a 10% daily pump isn’t enough to reverse the trend. My previous analysis is still valid. - Daily timeframe: The MACD has reset, and RSI is now in a neutral zone. This suggests a potential short-term pump over the next few days. - Key levels: Supports at $91k and $80k are back, but $99k remains a major resistance and could reject $BTC. - Leverage & liquidity: A massive $4.3 billion in longs has been built up, meaning we’re likely to retest the downside to liquidate them. - CME gap: We just created a 10%+ CME gap, which will most likely be filled. Conclusion: Optimism is back, and we could see a short altseason as capital flows into altcoins, now that some are officially part of the U.S. national reserve. BUT the global situation remains extremely concerning: - War tensions in Europe and the Middle East - Recession risks still on the table - Uncertainty about how this crypto reserve will actually work This is great news, but going all-in on longs at this point seems risky. How long will this momentum last? More than a week? I’m not sure. Technically, the correction isn’t over. Unlike December 2024—when Trump’s election happened at the end of a correction, with a bullish MACD crossover—we are now at the START of a weekly correction, which could last until May 2025. So yeah, fundamentally bullish, but technically, the correction still has room to go.
by CryptoNikkoid
12
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 3, 2025 GBPUSDThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, started the new week on a weak note and has already cancelled out most of Friday's gains to more than a one-week high. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to post relative gains amid expectations of a less aggressive easing policy from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, concerns over US President Donald Trump's retaliatory tariffs and their impact on the UK economy may keep GBP bulls away from new bets. In addition, geopolitical risks could limit deeper USD losses and limit GBP/USD gains. Meanwhile, signs that the disinflation process in the US has stalled, reinforcing the case for the Fed to take a wait-and-see approach to future interest rate cuts, could also serve as a tailwind for the USD. This could help to further contain GBP/USD and warrant some caution before positioning for a resumption of the recent uptrend from levels below 1.2100, or the yearly low reached on 13 January. The main focus will be on the closely watched monthly US employment data on Friday. The widely-reported Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure will shape expectations on the path of the Fed rate cut and drive demand for the dollar in the near term. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2610, SL 1.2560, TP 1.2690
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
How to pick a benchmark for you portfolio and beat the market What is a benchmark? A benchmark is an index or a basket of assets used to evaluate the performance of an investment portfolio In the context of portfolio analysis the benchmark serves as a point of comparison to determine whether a fund a strategy or an investment is performing better worse or in line with the reference market. In the current chart, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is displayed with a solid and larger blue line in relation to other cryptocurrencies for the current period. Benchmarks are essential tools for institutional and private investors as they allow measuring the effectiveness of asset allocation choices and risk management Additionally they help determine the added value of an active manager compared to a passive market replication strategy. Benchmark analysis example: NASDAQ:TSLA - NASDAQ:NDX Benchmark analysis example: NASDAQ:TSLA - NASDAQ:AAPL - NASDAQ:NDX What is the purpose of a benchmark The use of a benchmark in portfolio analysis has several objectives 1) Performance Evaluation: Provides a parameter to compare the portfolio's return against the market or other funds 2) Risk Analysis: Allows comparing the volatility of the portfolio against that of the benchmark offering a measure of risk management 3) Performance Attribution: Helps distinguish between returns derived from asset selection and those linked to market factors 4) Expectation Management: Supports investors and managers in assessing whether a portfolio is meeting expected return objectives 5) Strategy Control: If a portfolio deviates excessively from the benchmark it may signal the need to review the investment strategy How to select an appropriate benchmark? The choice of the correct benchmark depends on several factors: 1) Consistency with Portfolio Objective: The benchmark should reflect the market or sector in which the portfolio operates 2) Representativeness of Portfolio Assets: The benchmark should have a composition similar to that of the portfolio to ensure a fair comparison 3) Transparency and Data Availability: It must be easily accessible and calculated with clear and public methodologies 4) Stability Over Time: A good benchmark should not be subject to frequent modifications to ensure reliable historical comparison 5) Compatible Risk and Return: The benchmark should have a risk and return profile similar to that of the portfolio Most used benchmarks There are different benchmarks based on asset type and reference market Here are some of the most common. Equity FRED:SP500 Representative index of the 500 largest US companies. NYSE:MSCI World Includes companies from various developed countries ideal for global strategies FTSE:FTSEMIB Benchmark for the Italian stock market NASDAQ:NDX Represents the largest technology and growth companies Bonds Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index Broad benchmark for the global bond market JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index EMBI Benchmark for emerging market debt [* ]BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index Representative of the high-yield bond market junk bonds Mixed or Balanced 6040 Portfolio Benchmark 60 equities SP 500 and 40 bonds Bloomberg US Aggregate used to evaluate balanced portfolios Morningstar Moderate Allocation Index Suitable for moderate-risk investment strategies Alternative HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index Benchmark for hedge funds Goldman Sachs Commodity Index GSCI Used for commodity-related strategies Bitcoin Index CoinDesk BPI Benchmark for cryptocurrencies A reference benchmark is essential in portfolio analysis to measure performance manage risk and evaluate investment strategies The selection of an appropriate benchmark must be consistent with the strategy and market of the portfolio to ensure meaningful comparison. Understanding and correctly selecting the benchmark allows investors to optimize their decisions and improve long-term results.
Education
by thequantscience
6
GBP/USD Trendline Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3 - 7)The GBP/USD Pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2425 2nd Support – 1.2316 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
USD/JPY Channel Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3-7)The USD/JPY pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 153.90 2nd Resistance – 155.60 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
5
USD/CHF Wedge Breakout (Weekly Forecast Mar 3-7)The USD/CHF pair on the H2 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 0.9138 2nd Resistance – 0.9221 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
Bitcoin Cash at Critical Trendline – Next Big Move?Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USDT) is currently showing signs of a strong reversal after testing a key support zone and the ascending trendline. This level has acted as critical support in previous price cycles, making it an important area to watch. The price has rebounded from the strong support line, which aligns with the accumulation zone from early 2023. Additionally, BCH remains within a long-term descending channel, with the upper resistance line acting as a ceiling for previous bullish moves.
Long
by unichartz
2
Silver (XAG/USD) Bearish Retest – Drop to $31 Incoming?Silver (XAG/USD) - 8H Chart Analysis 📉 Bearish Setup in Play Breakout & Retest: Price broke down from a wedge pattern and is currently retesting the supply zone (highlighted in red). EMA (200) Support: The 200 EMA (31.26) is acting as dynamic support. If price holds below, further downside is expected. Bearish Target: A move towards the demand zone (30.80 - 31.00) (blue area) is anticipated. Key Resistance: The rejected zone around 32.00 remains crucial for trend direction. 💡 Trade Idea: If rejection is confirmed at the supply zone, short positions targeting 31.00 look promising. A break above 32.00 could invalidate the bearish outlook. 🔥 Watch for confirmation! 🚀
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by MrStellanSight
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 28, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD remains under selling pressure near 1.0390 during Asian trading on Friday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid risk-off sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index will take centre stage later on Friday. Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that 25 per cent duties on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, rather than April 2 as he had anticipated the day before. Trump also said goods from China would be subject to an additional 10 per cent duties. He also promised this week to impose 25 per cent tariffs on shipments from the European Union. Tariff uncertainty from Trump is likely to weigh on the common currency in the near term. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday she expects the US central bank's interest rate policy to be put on hold for now amid a search for evidence that inflationary pressures are easing and returning to the 2 per cent target. Meanwhile, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said late Wednesday that the Fed should keep interest rates on hold, which continues to put downward pressure on inflation. The Fed's cautious stance could boost the US Dollar and serve as a headwind for EUR/USD. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0380, SL 1.0430, TP 1.0300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Buy EUR/CAD High Impact NewsThe EUR/CAD pair on the M15 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.5086 2nd Resistance – 1.5124 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3