IFN Analysis 10/16/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/16 I have no open positions in NYSE: IFN
I am not a licensed investment advisor and I am not a tax advisor, nothing in this article is to be taken as financial advice.
India Fund, Inc. (The)
India Fund, Inc. (The) is a non-diversified closed end fund focused on the Indian market. The fund is currently trading at a discount of 7.5% to the net asset value with a 9% dividend yield.
The fund holds a basket of Indian equities, primary large cap companies with stable track records. With the fund launched in 2003 it has since under performed the Nifty 50 index which has had a historic run in recent years. So why would an investor consider IFN?
First of all IFN is trading at a discount to NAV meaning you are essentially buying the basket of stocks at a discount. It is also my personal belief that the equities held in IFN are better but valuation and fundamentally from the holdings in the Nifty 50 index.
Macro:
India is one of the fastest growing countries in the world in terms of both population and economically. However with several major drawbacks including the massive trade deficit, lack of efficiency in government operations, and less developed architecture to some of the competitor emerging markets. That being said India is a country of smart, hard working people, and I believe their economic environment will continue to improve.
Tax Considerations:
IFN is a closed end fund, meaning that it may have special tax considerations for some investors. From the perspective of a USA based investor I choose to hold all closed end funds in a Roth IRA retirement account. Please consult with a tax advisor before making any decisions.
Analysis
Fundamental analysis of the market for 16.10.2024 GBPUSDGBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3065 today, although it lacks bullish confidence. The release of the UK Consumer Price Index news event weakened the Pound against the Dollar.
Ahead of the key data release, speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may move to accelerate its rate cut cycle continues to undermine the British Pound (GBP) and act as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. That said, the moderate decline in the US Dollar (USD) is providing some support to the currency pair and helping to limit the downside.
From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action can still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase amid the recent pullback from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022, reached last month. In addition, the oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still far from the oversold zone.
Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Sell EUR/CHF BreakoutThe EUR/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.9385
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.9350
2nd Support – 0.9330
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.9410. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
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Kumba Iron Ore Analysis 10/15/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/15/24 I have no open positions in Kumba Iron Ore JSE: KIO
Introduction:
Kumba Iron Ore is a South African Iron Ore mining company. They operate 3 mines in South Africa, all of which are quality assets operating profitably at current Iron Ore prices. The second business segment is logistics, or the transport of minerals across South Africa and internationally.
Fundamentals:
Looking at the 3 mines and their average costs the company is profitable at any Iron Ore prices about $40/metric ton. Well below the current prices. The return on the company's assets is very high and debt is negligible. The mine's have a long runway of 20+ years before they are at risk of running dry. With a long runway, profitable mines, the company looks attractive on a fundamentals basis.
Iron Ore spot price:
Current Iron prices are around $100/metric ton. Iron being a commodity tied to the general economy could see a drop in an economic downturn. $50 Iron could be possible atleast in the short term with an upside of $200/metric ton in a good economic environment for Iron.
tradingeconomics.com
Valuations:
Kumba Iron Ore is currently trading at a P/CF and a P/E of 3.67 and 5.69 respectively. By both metrics the company is very cheap relative to the fundamentals. With a dividend yield of 11% easily covered by the company's cash flows Kumba Iron Ore looks very attractive for a long term investor bullish on Iron Ore.
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Comcast Corporation Analysis 10/15/24Disclosure: As of 10/15 I am long Comcast Corporation NYSE: NASDAQ:CMCSA
Comcast is a media and telecom company. They have several business divisions including news, movies, and telecom services.
Looking at their business they own several well known brands like MSNBC, Sky News, Xfinity, and Universal Studios.
Fundamentals:
Looking at the fundamentals of the business it is very stable with return on equity in the teens for multiple economic cycles. Alongside stable margins, paying back shareholders through buybacks and dividends and the responsible usage of debt it appears management is doing a good job running the business.
This can be seen in the earnings and revenue growth over the years. Data going back to 2017 is remarkably stable in both revenue and earnings growth.
Valuations: Looking at the valuations at a P/E of 10 and a dividend/buyback yield of 4% that gives me the minimum 15% return I am looking for in a long term hold. This does not account for future growth.
Calculating for growth I would be happy to earn 18% annual on an investment at current prices. Of course this is just an estimate of the fair value for the company. But I would be still buying at any price below $50/share.
Conclusion:
As with most mature companies this investment should be thought of in a very long term compounding model for determining present value. Similar to in my NASDAQ:TROW analysis a holding period for mature companies should be as long as possible assuming the business is growing and doing well. This allows the earnings to compound and grow into perpetuity.
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PEPE’s Next Move: Anticipating a Correction Amidst OvervaluationIn the wake of the recent rally in BINANCE:BTCUSDT , BINANCE:1000PEPEUSDT.P has followed suit, joining the upward momentum and achieving fresh higher highs. Looking at historical patterns, it's plausible that we could witness a 10% retracement in the coming days, as corrections have been common following similar surges. Furthermore, we’ve been tracking a month-long upward trend where strategic pullbacks have consistently set the stage for new highs, reinforcing the potential for a short-term decline.
The current price action appears somewhat inflated, especially when considering key indicators such as the EMA200 and Bollinger Bands , both of which suggest overvaluation at this stage. With these confluences in mind, I foresee a potential move towards filling the imbalance that has been left behind by recent price spikes.
For this setup, I have identified two target profit zones:
TP1: 0.0100676
TP2: 0.0096963
To manage risk, the stop-loss is placed at 0.0112460, allowing for a balanced approach that accounts for market volatility while still capturing potential downside movement.
Sell EUR/USD Strong DollarThe EUR/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0937, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0885
2nd Support – 1.0860
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0960. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 15, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair reached a new ten-week low on Monday, marking the start of the new trading week with another decline. The euro lost 0.25% against the dollar, breaching its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a result of the dollar's strength and the euro's general weakening.
The latest results of the European Central Bank's (ECB) lending survey are scheduled for release on Tuesday, and investors will be monitoring for any indications regarding the overall health of the European banking sector this week.
The final European harmonised consumer price index (HICP) inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday morning, but is unlikely to have a significant impact on market volatility as investors focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a 25-basis point interest rate cut is expected.
The next significant data release from the US is scheduled for Thursday, when US retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.3% m/m in September, following a relatively subdued August reading of 0.1%.
Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.
Sell GBP/USD Bearish ChannelThe GBP/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3062. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2988
2nd Support – 1.2960
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3090. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Today High Impact News :
GBP - GDP, Trade Balance
EUR - German CPI
USD - PPI
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Sell XAU/USD (Gold) Channel FormationThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a Channel Formation pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2650, This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2624
2nd Support – 2607
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2668. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Bitcoin will exit from pennant and continue to fall to 59KHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. By observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago entered to wedge, where it at once rebounded from the resistance line and fell to the support line, breaking the support level. After this movement, BTC started to grow and soon reached 57600, which coincided with the support area, broke it, and made a retest. Then it a little, after which made a correction to the support level and then made an impulse up to the resistance line of the wedge, which coincided with the 64000 level with the seller zone. Bitcoin some time traded near this level and later broke it, after which even exited from the wedge, but then it started to decline inside the downward pennant. Later price broke the 64000 level and dropped to the support line of the wedge, turned around and in a short time rose to the resistance level, but a not long time ago it turned around and fell to the support line. Now, the price trades near this line and I think it can rise a little and then continue to decline, thereby exiting from the pennant. For this case, I set my TP at 59000 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
HelenP. I Gold will make correction and then rebound up to $2700Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some days ago price declined to support 2, which coincided with the support zone, and some time traded near this level, even falling to the support zone. Later XAU dropped to the trend line and then started to grow inside the pennant pattern, where it rebounded from the support zone and rose to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone. Soon, the price broke this level and even rose higher than the support zone, after which reached the resistance line of the pennant. But then, XAU turned around and started to decline. The price quickly declined to support 1, where it touched the trend line, after which Gold rebounded up and reached the resistance line of the pennant again. So, at the moment, I expect that XAUUSD will make a small correction movement, after which continue to move up. Price can exit from pennant as well, and then make retest, or at once continue to grow. That's why I set my goal at 2700 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
$Gold Market UpdateI’m currently watching a potential trap in the gold uptrend, and we just executed a perfect trade off the second retracement after a pullback. Given the rising tensions in the Middle East, there’s a strong possibility of a sharp surge in TVC:GOLD prices.
With Israel tightening its preparations for potential military action, markets may react with flight-to-safety sentiment, pushing gold prices higher. The overall trend remains bullish.
Happy Trading.
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 14, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is unable to capitalize on a modest rise in the Asian session or find support above 149.000 and is pulling back a few pips from the highest level since August 16 reached on Monday. Prices are dipping below 148.500, or a fresh daily low in the last hour, and for the moment appear to have broken the dollar's three-day winning streak, although the fundamental backdrop warrants caution from bearish traders.
Japan's Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura said that the government will keep an eye on currency movements, including speculative moves, fueling speculation of possible intervention. This, in turn, provides some support for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and attracts sellers to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the decreasing chances of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2024 and a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) should continue to serve as a tailwind for the currency pair.
Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stunned markets last week by stating that the economy is not ready for further rate hikes. In addition, political uncertainty ahead of the October 27 general election may keep JPY bulls on the sidelines. Meanwhile, good US jobs data for the month released on Friday led investors to further reduce bets on a massive Fed rate cut in November. This helped the US Dollar (USD) maintain its recent strong rise to a seven-week high and should serve as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
This in turn suggests that any subsequent decline could still be seen as a buying opportunity, so it is prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the uptrend from a week ago has exhausted itself. As for further developments, there are no major economic data releases on Monday that could influence the market. Nevertheless, speeches by influential FOMC members may have an impact on the USD later in the North American session. In addition, geopolitical events should give a short-term impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Sell GBP/USD Triangle Breakout The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.3055
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2988
2nd Support – 1.2960
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Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Euraud likely can see more downsideHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Overall a bearish chart on the daily, now with the rejection as last R zone on daily, likely to see more downside on EA.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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EURUSD Daily previewFX:EURUSD
Here are the key levels from the perspective of the daily chart for the next week on EURUSD, which are important for me to trade, and at these levels I monitor Price Action and orderflow to confirm a market turn at the indicated SR levels or a breakout and continuation of the trend. If you want a more specific description or an explanation of my levels on the chart, please ask in the comments if you don't understand something and thanks for follow me :)
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