AUDUSD Long – Fair Value Gap + Macro Confluence + Bullish LEI AUDUSD Swing Long Setup – Technical + Macro Confluence
✅ Bias: Long AUD/SD
Based on a multi-factor thesis:
Macro: RBA steady; AUD LEI rising steadily (87 → 96), Endogenous improving
USD Weakness: Fed dovish + GDP downgraded = downside pressure
Seasonality: USD historically weak entire April
Analysis
Pre-Market Analysis – CAD/CHF1️⃣ The price has broken below the previous support zone, which had held multiple times in the past. This area is now likely to act as a new resistance.
2️⃣ The bottom boundary of the descending channel has been touched, signaling a potential reaction or short-term bounce from this level.
3️⃣ It’s quite probable that the price retraces back to the midline of the channel before continuing its downward move. This would be a classic pullback within a bearish channel structure.
📉 If price fails to reclaim the broken support and reacts bearishly near the resistance-turned zone or the channel’s midline, it could provide a solid continuation setup to the downside.
ETH — Still Lagging Behind. Two Levels That MatterETH continues to underperform the market — and it's not just about Ethereum. Most alts showed weakness after yesterday’s front-running impulse ended in today’s fade-out.
Let’s see how they behave on BTC’s next leg up.
As for ETH — only two levels matter for now:
1689 to the upside, and 1485.7 to the downside.
I’ll take action only after a confirmed breakout and hold above or below one of these zones. Until then — just observing.
Euro may continue to move up inside upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. We can see how the pair spent a long time inside a wide range, repeatedly testing the buyer zone between 1.0365 - 1.0400 points. After multiple rebounds and false breakouts, Euro finally broke through the resistance and started forming a strong upward channel. The bullish structure was further confirmed when the price respected the support line of the channel and created a new higher low near 1.0885, which now acts as the current support level. This level also coincides with the bottom of the seller zone, which was recently flipped into support. Price reacted with a sharp impulse up, breaking the consolidation range and confirming continued bullish pressure. Now Euro is approaching the middle of the channel and gaining strength again. I expect the pair to make a slight pull-back to the support area, followed by a continuation of the upward trend toward TP1 - 1.1250 points, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. As long as EUR remains above 1.0885 points and respects the bullish structure, I’m looking for another leg higher. The chart structure supports the bullish case, and the upward momentum is clearly in play. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
HelenP. I Gold may drop to trend line, breaking support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. A few days ago price rebounded from the trend line and started to grow inside the upward channel. In this channel, the price rose to support 2, which coincided with the support zone and soon broke this area. Then it continued to move up and rose to resistance line of channel, but soon it turned around and made small movement below, after which continued to grow near this line little below. Later, Gold made a correction movement to support 2, which coincided with the trend line and then continued to move up inside the channel. In a short time later it reached support 1, which coincided with one more support zone and also broke this level too. Price some time traded near this level and later made impulse up, exiting from channel pattern and then it at once turned around and made correction movement to support 1. Gold even declined a little below this level, but a not long time ago, it backed up. Now, I expect that XAUUSD will start to decline to the trend line, thereby breaking the support level. That's why I set my goal at 2965 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
NZDUSD Long Setup – FVG + Order Block + Macro Bullish BiasI'm looking to go long on NZDUSD based on a strong confluence of fundamentals, seasonal trends, and technical structure.
🔹 Macro bias: USD weakening as Fed leans dovish, while NZD is gaining momentum from rate cuts and improving LEI.
🔹 Seasonality: Historically, NZD shows strength in the first half of April, while USD tends to weaken mid-to-late April.
🔹 Technical setup:
Price left a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the 4H chart
Pullback into a bullish Order Block (OB)
Entry within imbalance
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold's Bullish Momentum Strengthens 📌 XAU/USD Analysis: Gold on a Strong Bullish Momentum Amid Economic Optimism 📈💰
✨ Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently demonstrating significant bullish momentum, driven by improved global economic sentiment. The recent 90-day tariff suspension among major global economies and hints from the recent FOMC meeting about potential rate cuts later this year are fueling investor optimism.
📊 Technical Analysis:
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
3,146
3,162
3,168
🔸 Key Support Levels:
3,096
3,078
3,066
3,052
📈 Moving Averages Analysis:
MA 13 (Short-term): Clearly supports bullish momentum, offering buy signals as price sustains above this MA.
MA 34 (Medium-term): Supporting bullish sentiment with prices comfortably above.
MA 200 (Long-term): Reinforces the robust long-term bullish outlook with price consistently trading above this level.
🚀 Trading Strategy & Recommendations:
BUY Strategy (Preferred Scenario):
Entry Zone: 3,094 – 3,096
Stop Loss: 3,090
Take Profit Levels: 3,100 | 3,104 | 3,108 | 3,112 | 3,116 | 3,120
SELL Strategy (Cautious Approach):
Entry Zone: 3,164 – 3,166
Stop Loss: 3,170
Take Profit Levels: 3,160 | 3,156 | 3,152 | 3,148 | 3,144 | 3,140
🌍 Fundamental Context:
Positive Market Sentiment: The global economic outlook has turned favorable due to tariff suspensions and strong performance in equity markets.
Interest Rate Outlook: Recent signals from the FOMC regarding possible interest rate cuts are providing further support for gold’s upward trajectory.
⚠️ Risk Management:
Emphasize caution when engaging in short positions, given the prevailing bullish conditions.
Always implement strict stop-loss measures and maintain risk-to-reward ratios of at least 1:2.
Avoid over-leverage and ensure trades are sized appropriately.
💡 Conclusion & Final Thoughts:
Gold remains strongly bullish, backed by both technical indicators and a positive fundamental backdrop. Traders are encouraged to focus primarily on buy opportunities near significant support levels and remain alert to potential trend reversals at key resistance zones.
🗨️ Engage with Us:
What are your current strategies for gold? Share your insights and views in the comments section below! 💬👇
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 10, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) showed strength during the Asian trading session on Thursday, reacting to the release of producer price index (PPI) data that exceeded market expectations. This macroeconomic signal reinforced speculation about possible further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), keeping the probability of an interest rate hike in the future. Additional support for the yen was provided by positive expectations of a potential trade agreement between Japan and the United States.
Amid the weakening of the US dollar (USD), the USD/JPY pair showed a pullback and fell below the psychologically important level of 147.000, which was also supported by a limited correction of the US currency amid a general recovery in market confidence.
The divergence in monetary expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve remains significant. While Japan is increasingly likely to tighten monetary policy, markets in the US are pricing in a scenario of multiple cuts in the Fed's key interest rate in 2025. This discrepancy has prevented the US dollar from maintaining momentum after an overnight recovery from a weekly low, prompting a reallocation of capital in favor of the more stable yen despite its status as a low-yielding currency.
Improved global risk sentiment, driven by US President Donald Trump's announcement of a temporary suspension of retaliatory tariffs against key trading partners, may also help strengthen the yen as a safe haven asset, especially amid continued uncertainty in international markets.
Trade recommendation: SELL 146.800, SL 147.400, TP 145.400
USD/JPY(20250410)Today's AnalysisToday's buying and selling boundaries:
146.66
Support and resistance levels:
150.90
149.32
148.29
145.03
144.01
142.42
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 148.29, consider buying, the first target price is 149.32
If the price breaks through 146.66, consider selling, the first target price is 145.03
S&P - What will happen next for the S&P?The S&P 500 has been dropping quickly after Trump's tariff policies were announced. It fell from 5750 to 4900, and is now at 5053, all in just a few days. This is a sharp decline, and sellers are clearly in control right now.
However, after such a big drop, it's common to see a short-term bounce before the market continues to fall. There is strong resistance between 5400 and 5500, which lines up with the golden pocket (a key level in technical analysis). This could make it harder for the S&P to rise past these levels.
Looking further down, there is another strong support area between 4500 and 4600. This level also matches the golden pocket on the daily chart, making it an important point for potential support. If the market keeps falling, we could see this area tested before any significant recovery.
Right now, it seems likely that the market will keep going lower. My main expectation is that we’ll get a small rally first, which could trick some traders into thinking the market is recovering, before continuing down. However, with all the uncertainty around the news and policies right now, it's also possible the market could keep dropping sharply without much of a rally.
Keep a close eye on the markets and stick to good risk management practices. If you don’t, it could really hurt your portfolio. Stay alert and adjust your strategy as things change.
Thanks for your support.
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Micron's Time to Be THAT Semiconductor is coming and FastNASDAQ:MU is extremely undervalued, I produced this chart last night. Its time that the market appreciates this monster with such solid fundamentals. Micron since 2022 has been working hard to become a major producer in the United States. I believe that Trump and his government could get behind the only major memory company to be based in the United States.
-----------------------
Balance Sheet:
Cash: $8.22b
Debt: $11.54b
Equity: $48.63b
Total Liabilities: $24.42b
Total Assets: $73.05b
All Stated in $ USD
-----------------------
Valuation:
Price To Sales: 2.72
Price To Earnings: 18.30
Forward Price To Earnings: 6.84
-----------------------
CADJPY: Bullish Setup Building — Fundamental AnalysisCADJPY is approaching a major support zone with a strong macro and seasonal backdrop favoring a bullish reversal.
Macro scores (LEI, endogenous) show consistent strength
Seasonality supports upside from late April into May
JPY is overbought per COT data
🔁 However, price structure remains bearish on 4H and Daily, so we are waiting for a confirmed CHoCH and HL before executing a swing long.
This idea is a "watch & prepare" setup — get ready to strike once structure flips.
USDCAD Downtrend Hinges on This SupportFenzoFx—USD/CAD is trading bearishly and failed to form a new higher high above the 1.4297 resistance. A new bearish wave could be triggered if selling pressure drives the price below the 1.4143 support level.
In this scenario, the next bearish target will likely be 1.4028. Please note that the bearish outlook should be invalidated if USD/CAD exceeds 1.4297.
>>> Trade USDCAT at FenzoFx Decentralized Forex Broker
HelenP. I Bitcoin may rebound from resistance zone and fall moreHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. After a strong rejection from the second resistance zone between 86700 and 87900 points, Bitcoin lost its bullish momentum. The price attempted to hold within the range but failed to break above the trend line, which has consistently acted as dynamic resistance. This trend line marked the turning point once again, pushing BTC down with increased selling pressure. The price then sharply declined, breaking below the first resistance zone between 78200 and 79500, which is now acting as resistance. This level was previously tested multiple times, making it a key barrier. After breaching this zone, the price dropped even lower and reached the 77000 area, where it found temporary support and began a minor bounce. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just below the resistance zone and remains under the trend line. Sellers are still in control, and the recent bounce looks weak compared to the prior impulse down. Given the rejection from resistance, the position relative to the trend line, and continued bearish pressure, I expect BTC to resume its decline toward 70000 points, which is also my goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Euro will break current support level and drop to 1.0735 levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Recently, the price completed a pennant pattern, which resulted in a breakout to the upside. This breakout, however, didn’t gain much ground - the movement quickly lost momentum inside the resistance area between 1.0955 - 1.0985 points, where Euro sharply turned around. The reversal from this zone wasn’t unexpected, considering this level had already acted as resistance earlier. What followed was a clean break below the current support level at 1.0955 points, which shifted the market structure back to bearish. Now the price is trading lower, and the bearish impulse looks set to continue. My expectation is a further decline toward the support level at 1.0735, which also aligns with the buyer zone between 1.0695 - 1.0735 points. This level may act as the next potential area of interest where buyers could attempt a defence. The invalidation of local support, weakness after the breakout, and strong supply reaction from resistance all point to a high probability of continuation down toward TP 1 - 1.0735 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Markets On Edge: Gold Soars, Dollar Stumbles, Bitcoin Bounces 🔍 Midweek Market Outlook: What’s Driving DXY, Gold & Bitcoin Right Now?
We’re in the middle of one of the most eventful trading weeks of the year.
The U.S. Dollar is retreating under policy pressure
Gold has officially gone parabolic, smashing through $3,000
Bitcoin is pulling back hard, down nearly 30% from its highs
These aren’t just price moves — they’re reflections of real economic stress and shifting capital flows.
In this week’s outlook, I break down:
📌 The key macro drivers behind these moves
📌 How the latest inflation data, Fed tone, and geopolitics are shaping sentiment
📌 Why gold is rallying like it’s 1980 all over again
📌 And what traders should anticipate next on DXY, XAUUSD, and BTCUSD
If you trade or invest in these markets, this is one of those weeks where fundamentals can’t be ignored.
🧠 Insights. 🎯 Forecasts. 🛠️ Trade Prep.
Check it out — link in the comments.
GOLD MARKET UPDATE – Trend Breakouts and Market Structure Shift🟡 GOLD MARKET UPDATE – Trend Breakouts and Market Structure Shift
Gold has broken through both the parallel ascending channel and a narrow triangle pattern at the edges, resulting in a strong buying momentum (FOMO BUY). This move can be attributed to a mild positive shift in the US stock market yesterday, along with some upward momentum in the Asian and European markets today.
📉 Current Situation: It’s still unclear whether this movement is tied to positive news about tariffs, but an important level to watch is 3075 – 3077. If this level is breached, it may be time to reassess the outlook and consider shifting towards a BUY.
💡 Currently, there’s strong buying activity during the European session. It’s recommended to avoid jumping into BUY positions at these levels and to refrain from selling too aggressively.
📌 Scenario for Today: Look for potential BUY opportunities at the important levels 3030 – 3018 during the European session, and stay tuned for updates regarding FOMC tonight.
🔮 Be Cautious: The FOMC meeting will take place later today, which could lead to significant market movements. Be prepared for potential volatility and liquidity sweeps in less liquid areas.
🧭 Key Technical Levels:
🔺 Resistance: 3075 – 3090 – 3110
🔻 Support: 3030 – 3018 – 3000 – 2988 – 2974
🎯 Trade Setup:
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3074 – 3076
SL: 3080
TP: 3070 – 3066 – 3062 – 3058 – 3054 – 3050 – 3040
🟢 BUY ZONE: 2976 – 2974
SL: 2970
TP: 2980 – 2984 – 2988 – 2992 – 2996 – 3000
📌 Reminder: The market is currently very sensitive, so stick to risk management rules, ensure full TP/SL implementation, and avoid making hasty decisions.
Be cautious and watch the market movements closely!
— AD | Money Market Flow
Long EURNZD – Seasonal, Fundamentals & Technical ConfluenceWe are entering a long position on EURNZD, capitalizing on a powerful confluence of:
Seasonal EUR strength + NZD weakness (April 10 – May 15)
A clear bullish market structure (CHoCH, HH/HL)
A clean Fibonacci retracement entry at 0.5
Strong macro divergence, with NZD exogenous conditions deteriorating
Macro & Seasonal Context
EUR enters a strong seasonal uptrend from April 10 to end of month
NZD shows seasonal weakness from April 15 onward
NZD’s exogenous model score worsened to -12 in April
While NZD LEI and endo improved, it remains structurally weak
Timing
Best execution: on pullback to 1.9373 zone, ideally between April 10–15, aligned with seasonal entry window.
BTC at a Critical Inflection Point – Bulls vs. BearsBitcoin is currently trading around $77,644, sitting right between two major trendlines:
🟢 Long-Term Bullish Support – This green ascending trendline has held since late 2023, providing key support throughout BTC’s macro uptrend.
🔴 Medium-Term Bearish Resistance – The red descending trendline has capped price since the 2025 highs, forming a clear structure of lower highs.
We're now at a pivotal confluence zone where these two trendlines intersect. Price recently bounced off the green support, but it's struggling to decisively break above the red resistance.
🔍 Key Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout:
A strong daily close above the red trendline could confirm bullish continuation.
Targets: $84K, GETTEX:92K , and potentially ATH breakout above $100K.
❌ Bearish Rejection:
Rejection at resistance may lead to a retest of the green trendline (~$74K).
A breakdown from there opens the door to GETTEX:64K –$60K, or even deeper pullbacks.
WHY XAUUSD IS BULLISH ?? DETAILED TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALSXAUUSD is currently showing strong signs of bullish continuation after completing a successful retest of the previous breakout zone near the $2,920–$2,950 region. Price action has respected this support beautifully and is now pushing back above $3,040, confirming the bullish structure. This retest and bounce pattern suggests that the market is preparing for a fresh leg higher, with my immediate target set at $3,100. The current structure is aligned with higher highs and higher lows, and momentum is shifting back in favor of buyers.
Technically, the move is clean. The bullish impulse from February to late March created a strong upside leg, followed by a healthy correction into a well-defined demand zone. This demand zone held firm, and the current reaction is supported by increasing volume and bullish candlestick formation on the 12H chart. The inverse head-and-shoulders structure around $2,930 gives this setup even more weight, with a clear breakout above the neckline indicating potential continuation toward higher time frame targets.
From a fundamental perspective, gold remains supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, increased demand from central banks, and continued inflationary pressure globally. As the market anticipates this week's U.S. CPI data, investors are hedging against uncertainty, which is driving flows into safe-haven assets like gold. The recent pullback in the US dollar index and bond yields is also contributing to upside pressure on XAUUSD, further confirming the bullish outlook.
With both the technical setup and macro drivers favoring upside, I'm looking for continuation toward $3,100 and potentially beyond in the short to mid-term. This area also aligns with the next psychological resistance and projected extension level. As long as price holds above $3,000, any dips should be viewed as fresh buying opportunities. This setup offers an excellent risk-reward ratio for traders looking to capitalize on gold’s ongoing bullish momentum.
EURNZD - at major Resistance: Will it drop to 1.9000?OANDA:EURNZD reached a major resistance level that has previously acted as a strong barrier, triggering some strong bearish momentum. This zone can be a potential point of interest for those looking for short opportunities. Given its historical significance, how price reacts here could set the tone for the next move.
If bearish signals emerge, such as rejection wicks, bearish candlestick patterns, or signs of weakening bullish pressure, I anticipate a move toward the 1.9000 level . However, a clear breakout above this resistance could challenge the bearish outlook and mean further upside. It's a pivotal area where price action will likely provide clearer clues on the next direction.
Just my take on support and resistance zones, not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with a proper risk management.
USDJPY Analysis: Reversal Estimations Based on Trading MathDear Trader,
Please find attached my analysis of $Subject, which uses mathematical calculations to identify potential reversal times and price levels. The analysis details projected south and north price targets (horizontal lines on the chart), along with estimated time frames for possible reversals (vertical lines on the chart, accurate to within +/- 1-2 candles). Please note that all times indicated on the chart, including the vertical lines representing potential reversal times, are based on the UTC+4 time zone.
To increase the probability of these analyses, I recommend monitoring the 5-minute and 15-minute charts for the following key reversal candlestick patterns:
Doji’s
Double Bottom/Top
Engulfing Bullish /Bearish
Hanging Man
Hammer/Inverted Hammer
Morning Star
Shooting Star
Triple Top/Bottom
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
Price levels
Price DH Price DL
144.52194 144.63007
144.48096 144.67107
144.38595 144.76618
144.19602 144.95648
144.00622 145.14691
143.81654 145.33746
143.62698 145.52814
143.43756 145.71894
143.24825 145.90987
143.05907 146.10093
142.30361 146.86639
141.55015 147.63385
140.79868 148.40332
140.04922 149.17478
139.30176 149.94824
138.55630 150.72370
137.81283 151.50117
137.07137 152.28063
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.