CADCHF - BEARISH - QUANT-LEVEL FX LISTDaily: Downtrend
H4: Downtrend
H1: Downtrend
m15: Downtrend
Risk of Entering Now: Better Zone a little higher
Target at least previous day low
tg@darksheeptrades
Analysis
CAD/JPYSince my ascending triangle formation has violated its characteristics it is no longer valid. I took this opportunity to revisit this pair and start again. I still believe price is operating from the Double Bottom Formation so I'm still looking for price to go up. Here we have 4 touches on our Trendline & A Expanding Flat Formation (highlighted in blue letters). I have entered a position after the 4hr close but im still looking for a retrace for a better position.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 2, 2025 GBPUSDOn Wednesday, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair is trading unchanged at around 1.37450. However, dovish statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and growing concerns about the budget may put pressure on the dollar in the near term. Investors are awaiting the ADP report on US employment for June, which will be released later on Wednesday, in the hope of new momentum.
Powell said on Tuesday that the US central bank would be patient about further interest rate cuts, but did not rule out a rate cut at its July meeting, although the decision would depend on incoming data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, short-term interest rate futures now price in the probability of a rate cut in July at almost 1 in 4, up from less than 1 in 5 previously.
Investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending bill, which could increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion. The bill will return to the House of Representatives for final approval. Fiscal concerns could dampen optimism and contribute to a decline in the US dollar.
As for the pound sterling, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that there are currently signs of a weakening UK labor market and stressed that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. The UK central bank is expected to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, bringing them to 3.5% to combat sluggish economic growth and a weakening labor market. Rate cuts are expected in August, September, and November 2025, with possible quarterly reductions.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.37450, SL 1.37900, TP 1.36750
ENJ - 4H Uptrend, after expected correctionHere is a short analysis based on the chart's elements:
Trendline Breakout: The price has decisively broken out of a long-term descending white trendline, which previously acted as resistance. This is a strong bullish signal, suggesting the end of the downtrend.
Market Structure Shift: The chart shows multiple "ChoCH" (Change of Character) and "BOS" (Break of Structure) to the upside, indicating a shift from a bearish market structure (Lower Lows and Lower Highs) to a bullish one.
Predicted Path: The large yellow arrow drawn on the chart illustrates the forecast. It predicts a potential small dip or consolidation to retest the broken trendline as new support, followed by a significant upward move.
Target: The arrow points towards the upper red resistance/supply zones, suggesting a potential target price around the 0.07200 level.
EURO - Price can start to decline from resistance line of wedgeHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price grew to $1.1500 level and even broke it, after which started to decline in wedge.
Price declined to support line, breaking two levels, after which it turned around and started to move up.
Soon, EUR broke $1.1215 level and then rose more, after which made a correction to support line.
Then price in a short time rose to $1.1500 level, broke it one more time, and tried to grow more, but failed.
But recently it turned around and quickly rose to resistance line of wedge and now trades near.
In my mind, Euro can bounce from resistance line and fall to $1.1520 support line of wedge pattern.
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Quantitative Trading Models in Forex: A Deep DiveQuantitative Trading Models in Forex: A Deep Dive
Quantitative trading in forex harnesses advanced algorithms and statistical models to decode market dynamics, offering traders a sophisticated approach to currency trading. This article delves into the various quantitative trading models, their implementation, and their challenges, providing insights for traders looking to navigate the forex market with a data-driven approach.
Understanding Quantitative Trading in Forex
Quantitative trading, also known as quant trading, in the forex market involves using sophisticated quantitative trading systems that leverage complex mathematical and statistical methods to analyse market data and execute trades. These systems are designed to identify patterns, trends, and potential opportunities in currency movements that might be invisible to the naked eye.
At the heart of these systems are quantitative trading strategies and models, which are algorithmic procedures developed to determine market behaviour and make informed decisions. These strategies incorporate a variety of approaches, from historical data analysis to predictive modelling, which should ensure a comprehensive assessment of market dynamics. Notably, in quantitative trading, Python and similar data-oriented programming languages are often used to build models.
In essence, quantitative systems help decipher the intricate relationships between different currency pairs, economic indicators, and global events, potentially enabling traders to execute trades with higher precision and efficiency.
Key Types of Quantitative Models
Quantitative trading, spanning diverse markets such as forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies*, utilises complex quantitative trading algorithms to make informed decisions. While it's prominently applied in quantitative stock trading, its principles and models are particularly significant in the forex market. These models are underpinned by quantitative analysis, derivative modelling, and trading strategies, which involve mathematical analysis of market movements and risk assessment to potentially optimise trading outcomes.
Trend Following Models
Trend-following systems are designed to identify and capitalise on market trends. Using historical price data, they may determine the direction and strength of market movements, helping traders to align themselves with the prevailing upward or downward trend. Indicators like the Average Directional Index or Parabolic SAR can assist in developing trend-following models.
Mean Reversion Models
Operating on the principle that prices eventually move back towards their mean or average, mean reversion systems look for overextended price movements in the forex market. Traders use mean reversion strategies to determine when a currency pair is likely to revert to its historical average.
High-Frequency Trading (HFT) Models
Involving the execution of a large number of orders at breakneck speeds, HFT models are used to capitalise on tiny price movements. They’re less about determining market direction and more about exploiting market inefficiencies at micro-level time frames.
Sentiment Analysis Models
These models analyse market sentiment data, such as news headlines, social media buzz, and economic reports, to gauge the market's mood. This information can be pivotal in defining short-term movements in the forex market, though this model is becoming increasingly popular for quantitative trading in crypto*.
Machine Learning Models
These systems continuously learn and adapt to new market data by incorporating AI and machine learning, identifying complex patterns and relationships that might elude traditional models. They are particularly adept at processing large volumes of data and making predictive analyses.
Hypothesis-Based Models
These models test specific hypotheses about market behaviour. For example, a theory might posit that certain economic indicators lead to predictable responses in currency markets. They’re then backtested and refined based on historical data to validate or refute the hypotheses.
Each model offers a unique lens through which forex traders can analyse the market, offering diverse approaches to tackle the complexities of currency trading.
Quantitative vs Algorithmic Trading
While quant and algorithmic trading are often used interchangeably and do overlap, there are notable differences between the two approaches.
Algorithmic Trading
Focus: Emphasises automating processes, often using technical indicators for decision-making.
Methodology: Relies on predefined rules based on historical data, often without the depth of quantitative analysis.
Execution: Prioritises automated execution of trades, often at high speed.
Application: Used widely for efficiency in executing repetitive, rule-based tasks.
Quantitative Trading
Focus: Utilises advanced mathematical and statistical models to determine market movements.
Methodology: Involves complex computations and data analysis and often incorporates economic theories.
Execution: May or may not automate trade execution; focuses on strategy formulation.
Application: Common in risk management and strategic trade planning.
Implementation and Challenges
Implementing quantitative models in forex begins with the development of a robust strategy involving the selection of appropriate models and algorithms. This phase includes rigorous backtesting against historical data to validate their effectiveness. Following this, traders often engage in forward testing in live market conditions to evaluate real-world performance.
Challenges in this realm are multifaceted. Key among them is the quality and relevance of the data used. Models can be rendered ineffective if based on inaccurate or outdated data. Overfitting remains a significant concern, where systems too closely tailored to historical data may fail to adapt to evolving market dynamics. Another challenge is the constant need to monitor and update models to keep pace with market changes, requiring a blend of technical expertise and market acumen.
The Bottom Line
In this deep dive into quantitative trading in forex, we've uncovered the potency of diverse models, each tailored to navigate the complex currency markets with precision. These strategies, rooted in data-driven analysis, may offer traders an edge in decision-making.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 1, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
01.07 16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
01.07 16:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks
01.07 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
EUR/USD is trading in negative territory near 1.1790 in the early European session on Tuesday. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) amid growing budget concerns and uncertainty surrounding trade deals.
Four people familiar with the negotiations said US President Donald Trump's administration is seeking to phase in deals with the most involved countries as they rush to reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline. Uncertainty over trade agreements continued to weigh on sentiment and sell the US dollar.
Investors are concerned about the US Senate's attempts to pass Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, which faces intra-party disagreement over a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the national debt. Fiscal concerns have dampened optimism and contributed to the decline in the US dollar. This, in turn, serves as a tailwind for the major pair.
German inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), eased to 2.0% y/y in June from 2.1% in the previous reading. The figure was below expectations of 2.2%.
On a month-on-month basis, HICP rose 0.1% in June vs. 0.2% previously, below the market consensus forecast of 0.3%. Softer-than-expected German inflation data may limit near-term growth.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1795, SL 1.1725, TP 1.1880
USD/JPY Bearish Flag (30.06.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 143.40
2nd Support – 142.86
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Buy IOC short term target 155, 165 & Medium Term tgt 185, 250 Indian Oil Corporation does business in the entire hydrocarbon value chain - from Refining, Pipeline transportation and marketing of Petroleum products to R&D, Exploration & production, marketing of natural gas and petrochemicals. It has the leadership position in the Oil refining & petroleum marketing sector of India.
The company aims to strengthen EV mobility infrastructure by setting up charging points and battery-swapping facilities at its fuel stations. It has also signed a binding term sheet with Panasonic Group to form a JV for manufacturing cells in India.
The company’s R&D is focused on emerging fields such as nanotechnology, Solar, Bioenergy, Hydrogen, etc. It has an effective patent portfolio of 1636. It spent Rs 946 Cr in FY24 on R&D.
The company’s R&D is focused on emerging fields such as nanotechnology, Solar, Bioenergy, Hydrogen, etc. It has an effective patent portfolio of 1636. It spent Rs 946 Cr in FY24 on R&D.
Market Cap ₹ 2,07,370 Cr.
Annual Sales - ₹ 758,106 Cr
Dividend Yield - 8.20 %
Stock P/E - 17.0
Industry PE - 29.2
Debt to equity - 0.82
ROCE - 7.37 %
EPS - ₹ 9.63
Fundamentally, this big company is trading at a very low valuation. The Crude Oil price is expected this year to be on lowest, so we can expect good profit margin and this company is into green energy business so it should have PE multiple of that business as well. We Expect growth in EPS by 30% to 12.5 And re-rating of PE multiple to 20 so that give the share price to ₹ 250 which gives return of 70.88% from current price level of 146.30.
Technically, this is very bullish on weekly, daily timeframe. Price is trading above all short term, medium term averages. It has formed a bullish candlestick pattern on daily and weekly chart, so we expect immediate strong upside to 155, 165 and eventually 185 level and investment target of 250 levels.
S&P 500 Outlook. Best Quarter Since 2023… But What Next?The S&P 500 just logged its best quarterly performance since Q4 2023 , surging on optimism around global trade negotiations and growing expectations that the Fed may begin cutting rates as early as September. US futures are green this morning, thanks to developments like Canada backing off digital taxes, ongoing dialogues with China ahead of the July 9 deadline, and risk-on sentiment is pushing yields and the dollar lower.
But as traders, we need to ask:
Are we witnessing a genuine economic inflection point? Or is this just a liquidity-driven rally that’s pricing in a best-case scenario?
Technical View
Support Zone: 6,150 was just broken through. And 6000, the round number level, coinciding with the 20-day EMA and previous swing level.
Resistance Levels: 6,235 is the next critical ceiling, a clean breakout could see price reach the extension level of 6,415.
Momentum Indicators: RSI remains elevated and is creeping toward the overbought. While momentum is strong, watch out for the possible development of a divergence.
Possible Scenarios
The 'Soft Landing’ Is Now the Base Case
Markets are trading as if the Fed has successfully engineered a soft landing. But that’s now fully priced in, and historically, the most dangerous trades are the ones everyone agrees on. If trade talks stall, inflation re-accelerates, or earnings disappoint, the reversal could be brutal and fast.
Risk-on Sentiment Without Volume Is a Yellow Flag
Despite the price strength, volume has been tapering off. The S&P’s recent leg up occurred on lighter-than-average participation, suggesting institutions may be watching, not chasing. That’s often the case in low-volatility summers, but it also implies that any negative catalyst could cause outsized downside moves.
Macro-Fundamentals May Not Justify Valuation Expansion
Yes, inflation is slowing, and the Fed might cut. But if they do, it’s likely because growth is weakening, not because the economy is roaring. So the very condition that triggers rate cuts could also cap earnings growth!
Projection
Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 6,280 could carry us toward 6,400–6,500 by mid-Q3, especially if the trade deals progress, July inflation comes in soft, and the Fed signals accommodation.
Bearish Risk: If price fails to hold above 6,120, especially if trade optimism fades, or inflation growth spikes or Fed rhetoric shifts hawkish again, this could then open a quick pullback toward 6,000 or lower, which also aligns with the 50-day SMA.
Key Events to Watch
July 9 Trade Talks Deadline: Any sign of stalling could bring volatility back fast.
June CPI Print (July 10): Crucial for confirming the Fed's next move.
Earnings Season Kickoff (mid-July): Tech-heavy expectations may not be easy to beat after such a strong run.
Conclusion
A record-setting quarter is impressive but not necessarily predictive. This quarter’s rally has been built more on relief and expectations than hard data. When expectations (not earnings) are doing the heavy lifting, any misstep from central banks or geopolitics could unravel gains rapidly.
A rate cut might be delayed, or inflation re-accelerates, or trade talks stall; any of these could leave equities hanging. Remember: the higher the climb without real earnings growth, the harder the fall when sentiment shifts. It's not just about the chart. It is about the narrative behind the price.
What’s your bias for Q3?
Are you buying this breakout or fading the optimism? Drop your thoughts below.
GOLD - Price can grow to resistance line of wedge patternHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price bounced from $3390 level and declined, but soon turned back and even entered to resistance area.
After this, the price dropped from this area and then started to grow inside the wedge, where it at once made an impulse up.
Price reached $3390 level one more time and broke it, after which it continued to grow to the resistance line of the wedge.
When it reached this line, price turned around and in a short time declined below $3390 level, breaking and then made a retest.
Later, Gold broke $3300 level and fell to the support line of the wedge, after which it rose to the resistance area.
Now I expect that Gold can make a correction to almost support line and then bounce up to $3320 resistance line of the wedge.
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HelenP. I Gold may retest resistance before dropping to $3230Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart, we can see that after a period of sideways consolidation, gold started to form lower highs under a descending trend line. Each time the price approached this trend line, it was rejected, confirming strong bearish pressure. Most recently, XAUUSD broke below the support-turned-resistance level around 3295, entering the lower resistance zone. Now, the price is trading just under this area, which has acted as a strong supply zone in the past. Given the current technical setup, I expect that gold may show a minor upward move to retest the resistance zone between 3285 - 3295. However, this retest is likely to act as a trigger for sellers to step back in. The prevailing downtrend and repeated failures to break the trend line suggest further weakness ahead. That’s why I’ve placed my target at 3230 points - a level that aligns with the next major support on the chart. This area could provide the next bounce opportunity, but for now, the bearish structure remains dominant. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 30, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is attracting some sellers towards 143.85 during the Asian session on Monday. The U.S. dollar (USD) is weakening against the Japanese yen (JPY) amid rising bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut.
The United States (US) and China are close to a deal on tariffs. However, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada, adding uncertainty to the market's positive outlook.
In addition, traders are betting that the U.S. central bank will cut rates more frequently and possibly sooner than previously expected. Markets estimate the probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut at nearly 92.4%, up from 70% a week earlier.
On the data side, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.3% in May, up from 2.2% in April (revised from 2.1%), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. This value matched market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% in May, following a 2.6% increase (revised from 2.5%) seen in April.
On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious stance on interest rate hikes could put pressure on the yen and create a tailwind for the pair.
Trade recommendation: SELL 143.50, SL 144.30, TP 142.40
STEEL-NERVE SETUP – ARE WE RE-LIVING GOLD’S 2020 BEAR-TRAP?Retail sentiment is ultra-bearish, positioning is cooling, Silver is outperforming and the S&P 500 is screaming risk-on … exactly the cocktail we saw in June 2020, right before Gold & Silver exploded higher.
1️⃣ WHY THIS FEELS LIKE 2020 AGAIN
2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally) Read-through
> 70 % of TradingView ideas are bearish 💬 > 60 % were bearish Crowd may be offsides again
Managed-money net-longs -18 % from April peak 📉 -25 % from March peak Powder for fresh longs
First monthly ETF outflow (-$1.8 bn) 🚪 Record inflows Capitulation, not euphoria
Gold/Silver ratio down to 94 ⚖️ Fell to 95 Silver leadership = bottoming tell
S&P 500 at new ATH 📈 S&P at new ATH Risk-on backdrop identical
2️⃣ WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME
Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % (2020: -1 %) → smaller monetary tail-wind.
Gold already at inflation-adjusted ATH → upside could be shorter & sharper, not a fresh super-cycle (yet).
3️⃣ CHECKLIST FOR A REAL BEAR-TRAP
Signal Watch-level
Gold holds $3 200–3 250 (100-d SMA + fib) Daily close above zone
Gold/Silver ratio breaks < 90 Momentum confirmation
CFTC net-longs < 150 k Position flush
ETF flows turn positive Fear → FOMO
S&P stumbles / vols spike Classic risk-bid for Gold
Need 3 of 5 boxes ticked to validate the squeeze thesis.
4️⃣ CATALYST CALENDAR
3 Jul – NFP: sub-75 k print could fire the opening salvo.
9 Jul – Tariff freeze decision: escalation would revive safe-haven demand.
15 Jul – CPI & 30-31 Jul – FOMC: dovish turn + soft data could complete the squeeze.
Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinion for educational purposes only; it is not financial advice. Trading futures and commodities involves substantial risk and can lead to total loss of capital—do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified professional before acting.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis – Weekly Elliott Wave StructureIn this video, we analyze the weekly chart of Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT ) using Elliott Wave theory.
The current structure suggests the beginning of a new bullish impulse (waves 0, 1, and 2) following a clearly completed and technically correct corrective phase.
We explore potential impulsive scenarios starting from wave 2, using Fibonacci extensions to project possible targets and identifying key support zones and invalidation levels.
This analysis aims to provide a macro perspective based on price action, helpful for traders and investors following BTC from a medium- to long-term technical view.
🛑 Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Each user is responsible for their own trading decisions.
Gold in a Shifting Macro Landscape Fundamentals First: Why is Gold Falling While DXY is Too?
Normally, gold and the U.S. dollar share an inverse relationship (which means, when DXY weakens, gold rises). But recently, this correlation has broken down, and that divergence is a loud macro signal.
What’s Happening:
Trade Deal Optimism:
Headlines suggest the U.S. is nearing a resolution with China and other partners. With reduced geopolitical tension, investors are reallocating from safe-haven assets like gold into risk-on trades like equities and crypto.
Iran-Israel Ceasefire:
The temporary cooling of conflict has revived risk appetite. Traders are rotating out of war hedges (like gold and oil) and into tech, growth, and EM plays.
Real Yields Still Elevated:
Despite a softening Fed narrative, U.S. real yields remain positive, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. The fact that gold couldn't rally even as the 10-year note softened post-Moody's downgrade could be telling.
My Perspective:
This is the first clear signal in months that geopolitical hedging may have peaked. When gold decouples from its safe-haven narrative despite macro uncertainty, that often precedes a structural rotation phase, especially if institutional flows favor equities.
Technical Breakdown
Gold has broken below its 50-day SMA at $3,322 and is trading in the lower third of its 3-month range. While the daily candles show increasing selling pressure, especially on lower highs (a sign of weakening bullish momentum)
RSI : Falling toward 40, with no bullish divergence yet.
Support Level : $3,176: Previous swing low
Resistance Level : $3,444: previous swing high
What This Move Might Be Telling Us
When gold sells off on dollar weakness and geopolitical calm, the market isn’t just relaxing. It is rotating. The de-grossing of gold-heavy hedges: Some hedge funds may be taking profit on gold-heavy exposure from Q1’s rally.
Rise of risk appetite despite cracks: Markets are forward-pricing trade peace and earnings resilience, possibly too early. Gold might not be in trouble, but it’s on the bench. Unless something reignites fear (e.g., Fed policy mistake, Middle East flashpoint, or economic shock), capital may stay elsewhere.
30/06 WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ↗️GOLD PLAN – 30/06: WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ☄️
✅ Macro Context – Focus on USD Debt and Political Pressure
Today marks the final trading day of June, and the U.S. faces a $6 trillion debt maturity from Covid-era borrowings, which may impact USD liquidity and market sentiment.
During the Asian session, gold experienced a sharp drop to the 32xx area before bouncing back and is now hovering near last week's close.
While the medium-term structure remains bearish, short-term signals suggest a potential reversal and recovery.
✅Political Catalyst:
→ Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 1%-2%, stating he won’t appoint anyone unwilling to ease policy.
→ This raises expectations of future rate cuts, which could support gold prices in the near term.
✅ Technical Outlook – Multi-timeframe Structure
On the higher timeframes, gold continues to correct lower.
However, short-term candles are showing recovery momentum, with buyers absorbing around the 327x zone.
Today’s strategy: prioritize short-term BUY setups aligned with the recovery wave.
✔️Key Resistance & Support Levels
🔺Resistance: 3283 – 3291 – 3301 – 3322
🔻Support: 3277 – 3271 – 3259 – 3247
🔖Trade Scenarios
✅Buy Scalping
🔺Entry: 3272 – 3274
🔹SL: 3268
✔️TP: 3282 – 3288 – 3298
✅Buy Zone
🔺Entry: 3249 – 3251
🔹SL: 3244
✔️TP: 3265 – 3282 – 3295 – 3310
💠Sell Scalping
🔺Entry: 3298 – 3300
🔹SL: 3304
✔️TP: 3292 – 3282 – 3270
💠Sell Zone
🔺Entry: 3327 – 3329
🔹SL: 3333
✔️TP: 3322 – 3310 – 3298 – 3282
⚡️ Final Note
As this is the month-end session, expect possible volatility driven by USD flows and institutional rebalancing.
XAUUSD Analysis – June Monthly CloseGold starts the week with a weak bounce attempt after a strong bearish momentum on Friday, which pushed the market below the key 3254 support. The downtrend structure remains valid with a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the 4H chart.
At the moment, price is trapped inside the 3254–3295 range. Despite the strong bearish pressure, we have yet to see a meaningful correction after the sharp drop on June 28th. This opens the door for a potential intraday pullback to test minor supply and moving average resistance near 3291–3297.
However, today is monthly candle close, which means increased volatility and possible false breakouts—especially during US sessions. Traders should be cautious with breakout traps, especially around 3305–3310, where stop hunting might occur.
The bigger picture still favors the bears unless gold manages to break and hold above the descending trendline and the EMA cluster.
📌 Trade Setup (Short Bias – Intraday Correction)
SELL zone: 3291 – 3297
SL: 3303 (Above supply & EMA test zone)
TP1: 3278
TP2: 3255
TP3: 3215
This is not a high-conviction swing setup but a tactical short based on potential rejection from previous supply and dynamic resistance. Small lot size is recommended due to the wider stop-loss and low R/R reward unless high volatility plays in our favor.
📊 Key Intraday Levels
R3: 3342
R2: 3322
R1: 3295
Pivot: 3254
S1: 3214
S2: 3180
S3: 3123
Positioning Buy idea on Sugar (SB1!)Based on :
- Cot at extremes potential reversal
- Seasonality and quantitative analysis
- 2 Demand zones
EURUSD heads towards resistance, short-term reversal expectedEURUSD has been in a strong uptrend, and we’re currently observing price action is reaching a notable resistance zone. I am watching for a reversal here as marked on my chart, not expecting a major move, but rather a short-term rejection with a downside target at around 1.13670 , which also aligns with the POC.
This is where it can become a decision point, either price finds support and bounces, or it breaks below, and that’s when we might see the move start to extend lower.
If we get a decisive breakdown through that ascending trendline, my next area of interest is marked as TP2. From there we can expect either potential accumulation or another reaction, depending on broader market sentiment at the time.
That said, we're navigating a complex backdrop currently:
The EU macro environment is under pressure, as weak economic data from Europe is contributing to cautious sentiment around the euro.
Meanwhile, a sustained USD bid continues, supported by stronger U.S. growth expectations, favorable yields, and persistent global demand. This further weighs on EURUSD.
Adding to the uncertainty, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have rattled markets this week. This geopolitical risk could be pushing oil prices higher:
It’s important to note that if price convincingly rejects here and loses structure, especially with high volume and obvious bullish structure, this setup would become invalid. In that case, I would reassess and adapt
HelenP. I Euro will drop to trend line, after movement upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart, we can see that EURUSD has been moving in a stable upward trend, supported by a clear ascending trend line. Each time the price approached this line, it rebounded and continued to grow, respecting the bullish structure. After the recent breakout from the support zone around 1.1500, the market made a strong impulse to the upside and reached a local high. Now, the momentum seems to be slowing down, which opens the possibility for a corrective movement. Given this setup, I expect that the price could first make a small upward push to trap late buyers, and then turn around to begin a decline. The trend line remains a critical technical level, and I anticipate the price will revisit it soon. For this reason, I’ve placed my goal at 1.1575 points — this area aligns with the trend line and can serve as the next support if a pullback occurs. As long as this level holds, the market remains in a bullish structure, but a correction seems likely before further growth. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment.
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XAUUSD D1 Forecast: Gold at Pivotal 325x Support What's Next for the Yellow Metal?
Today, we're zooming out to examine the broader picture for Gold (XAUUSD) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Our latest analysis indicates that Gold has encountered a very strong, critical support level around the 325x region. This is a pivotal point that could significantly influence Gold's medium to long-term direction!
🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: The Underlying Forces Influencing Gold
While we've observed a degree of USD weakness stemming from speculations around the Federal Reserve (such as the rumours regarding Jerome Powell's replacement) and expectations of interest rate cuts, these factors haven't fully countered Gold's recent decline on the daily chart. Furthermore, the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to temper Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Nevertheless, the current price action at the robust 325x support level presents a significant technical signal. The impact of forthcoming US macroeconomic data (particularly the PCE Price Index on Friday) and speeches from FOMC members will be crucial in confirming or negating our projected movements for Gold. Should positive news for Gold align with this support holding, it could act as a potent catalyst.
📊 XAUUSD D1 Technical Analysis: Projecting Gold's Next Move
Given that Gold has reached strong support at 325x, we can anticipate the following scenarios:
Bounce from 325x (Potential Upside Phase):
If the 325x area (which reinforces the 3264.400 support from image_e9d325.png) holds firm, we expect a strong reaction and an upward move for Gold.
The initial target for this bounce would be the 332x region, aligning with resistance levels 3313.737 - 3330.483 from our previous analysis. On a broader timeframe (as illustrated in image_83845c.png), this corresponds to the resistance zone around 3326.022. This 332x area might represent a continuation pattern, suggesting it could be a corrective rally before the resumption of the larger trend.
Resumption of Downtrend (After Reaching 332x):
Once Gold reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and exhibits bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear top formation), we anticipate a resumption of the downward movement.
The next major target for this decline would be the 317x area, which correlates well with the strong support at 3173.052 on the larger timeframe (as depicted in image_83845c.png).
🎯 XAUUSD D1 Trading Plan: Your Long-Term Strategy Ahead!
Considering the current D1 analysis, here's our actionable plan:
1. BUY PHASE (Bounce from Support):
Entry: Observe price reaction in the 325x - 326x zone (specifically 3264.400). Only consider buying if there are clear bullish confirmations (e.g., a confirmed bullish pattern on the daily or 4-hour candle, a strong bounce from the zone with significant volume).
SL (Stop Loss): Position just below the 325x support zone (e.g., 3245-3240, depending on confirmation).
TP (Take Profit): 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3313.737 - 3320 - 3326.022 (key 332x zone). This will be our primary target for the potential bounce.
2. SELL PHASE (Downtrend Resumption):
Entry: Once the price reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and shows bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing, pin bar, or clear top formation).
SL (Stop Loss): Position slightly above the 332x zone (e.g., 3335-3340).
TP (Take Profit): 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 - 3200 - 3173.052 (final 317x target).
VSA vs BTC: Into a Bearish Scenario or Not?Predicting the market requires skill.
Most traders fail at one crucial point: they don’t see the market as a living, breathing organism—a structure where one move leads to another, like cause and effect in motion.
That’s what we often call reading the psychology of the market. When you begin to grasp the fundamental principles behind that, you step into the realm of elite traders.
And yes—Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a powerful tool, but only if you know how to read it properly.
I’m not a certified trader or financial advisor, and I don’t give signals, entries, or exits. I’m simply a solo observer, sharing a slice of what true technical and fundamental analysis looks like.
And yes—it takes time. It takes skills. Now, if we want to even attempt predicting the future of price action, we must understand something: A chart is not a single truth. It’s a battlefield of conflicting signals.
Patterns, marks, levels—some suggest bullish continuation, others hint at sharp reversals. Confusion is inevitable if you don’t learn to distinguish which signs matter.
In our current BTC chart, we’re witnessing this contradiction unfold clearly:
• A bullish flag formation...
• Yet within it, the emerging completion of a Head & Shoulders pattern!
How arrogant can the market be! 😄
A moment to laugh—but also a moment to observe how cleverly the crowd is misled.
This is classic manipulation, wrapped in a textbook setup.
But what’s most telling isn’t the pattern on the surface—it’s the volume beneath the structure.
It’s always the quiet details that speak the loudest.
Before price shows its true face, volume often leaves footprints. In our case, those footprints were already leading toward a bearish path—long before the structure began to shape itself clearly.
So while retail eyes focused on the bullish flag, the underlying volume had already begun withdrawing support.
Not aggressively—no. Subtly, almost elegantly, in that familiar way institutions mask intention:
• Spikes that don’t hold
• Buying that doesn’t follow through
• And a steady fade in commitment as price climbs into weakness
It’s in those quiet inconsistencies where VSA earns its value.
It tells us: the move isn’t about what’s obvious.
It’s about what never fully materialized.
So yes, the pattern may still remain incomplete. The Head & Shoulders may yet fail to validate.
But for those who were watching volume first—not structure—the script was already being written.
✒️ From now on, professionally speaking, we must still wait:
• For the Head & Shoulders to confirm or dissolve. So eyes targeted at the swing low level near 107k
• And for volume to either legitimize or invalidate the entire setup
Only then does the chart grant us permission to speak in certainties.
🐾 But so far…
• The clues have favored the bears.
• Sell opportunities appeared early and often—for those who know what to look for.
• Bullish spikes in volume? They were met with silence.
• Momentum fizzled under a macro backdrop of fading demand.
If you were in the right mindset, and aligned even the lower timeframes to basic structural zones,
you already saw the path ahead wasn’t being carved by the bulls.
Let them finish the patterns.
Let the candles paint the story.
But for those trained in volume, the ink has already dried.
And if you're still reading, maybe you already sense it—
real insight doesn’t shout, and it never floats in abundance.
Value has never been about noise. It’s about what’s rare, quiet, and overlooked by the crowd.
Just like in the markets—the true signals aren’t loud, and they’re never free in the economic sense.
Just as price rises where supply thins, the same applies here:
what’s scarce... holds weight.
PS For last A little exercise, something to grasp on. Have you noticed how Volume & RSI behaves in lower time frames? 4Hour or 1Hour for example. Can you identify how volume confirms a bearish move. Do you discover the correct correlation and combined use between VSA & RSI. Remember my previous insight
See you next time!
