Page 13 | Anchoredvwap — Trading Ideas on TradingView

May 31 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 2975-2900 Balance Area; Friday Spike. Technical: Risk-on sentiment in all major indices. Monday gapped and accepted prices above the prior balance area. Tuesday’s selling diverged from breadth and broad market sentiment. Wednesday opened higher, reflecting underlying market sentiment in the prior session, but sold off immediately, testing and rejecting the prior balance area. After rejection, the market squeezed higher and closed above the open, the most positive outcome. Thursday’s session continued higher, not supported by breadth and large lot activity. Friday tested lower on news-driven intraday volatility, rejected, and then spiked higher into the close. Opening within the spike, we balance and validate prices. Opening and remaining above the spike would be the most positive outcome. Opening below the spike base (i.e., $3030) would be the most negative outcome. Taking out Friday’s low of $2992.00, important references on the downside include $2975 and $2860. A successful break above $3065.50, important references on the upside include $3090, $3111, and $3135. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Key Events: Nonfarm Employment; Initial Claims; Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Surveys; Trade Deficit; Factory Orders; Vehicle Sales; Productivity And Costs; Construction Spending. Ratings agency Fitch suggests Global Recession is bottoming out. bit.ly Michael Burry may be wrong about the index bubble. bit.ly House loosens PPP rules; Treasury, SBA set aside more funds for lenders. on.wsj.com Airlines tackle social distancing with new rules. bit.ly Airport traffic picks up as lockdowns ease. bit.ly Which economies are reopening and why COVID killed globalization. bit.ly Weak demand curbs China factory activity. yhoo.it Bezos buying a stake in U.K. digital supply chain startup. cnb.cx NASDAQ:AMZN Protests rage across America. cnn.it OPEC, Russia bargain over extended output cuts until end of 2020. reut.rs ECB to raise quantitative easing purchases under PEPP program. bit.ly Investment-grade bond issuance to slow considerably. bit.ly PPP failed to get money to industries and areas most in need. bit.ly Lumber is higher on increased demand (i.e., home repairs, renovations, building). bloom.bg Home sales drop 18%, while decline in inventory pushes prices to a record high. cnb.cx Remote work to spark a housing boom in suburbs and smaller cities. on.wsj.com Energy Transfer LP ($ET) warns of coming job cuts. reut.rs NYSE:ET Kohl’s ($KSS) eyes trouble as sales plummet, digital business falls short. bit.ly NYSE:KSS Tensions with China escalate over Hong Kong’s autonomy. bit.ly U.S. considers COVID-19 coronavirus bill next month. bit.ly COVID-19 crisis may trigger a rolling pension collapse. bit.ly Study supports the wide usage of Gilead’s ($GILD) Remdesivir. bit.ly NASDAQ:GILD Moderna begins new COVID-19 vaccine study. on.mktw.net NASDAQ:MRNA Lower aggregate taxation; higher taxes will come; no bailout of pre-covid junk. bit.ly NVIDIA ($NVDA) faces positive results, outlook. bit.ly NASDAQ:NVDA Cboe Global Markets ($CBOE) expansion to Canada a credit positive. bit.ly AMEX:CBOE Fairfield, Alabama’s bankruptcy brings back familiar Chapter 9 themes. bit.ly Negative April credit card ABS performance confirms virus risks. bit.ly Global venture funding through the virus, late-stage stays strong. bit.ly Nasdaq CIO on policing foreign listings. bit.ly Sports betting stocks see a surge, unhurt by pandemic. bit.ly Money market inflows pause, validating rotation into risk. bit.ly Discussion regarding the need to implement an OPEC+ exit strategy. reut.rs Former Cisco Chair and CEO talks leading, growing through a crisis. bit.ly NASDAQ:CSCO Data, statistics on how the virus is impacting local business revenues. bit.ly Expedia Group ($EXPE) commits $275M to help industry rebound. bit.ly NASDAQ:EXPE Rising home sales show American’s are looking past the virus. bit.ly Dollar General ($DG), Dollar Tree ($DLTR) to outperform earnings. bit.ly NYSE:DG NASDAQ:DLTR Sentiment: 33.1% Bullish, 24.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 5/31/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 2,565,182,968 as of 5/29/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 52.3% as of 5/29/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT YM: AMEX:DIA TVC:DJI NYA: TVC:NYA GC: AMEX:GLD CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO NG: AMEX:UNG ZB: NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.

Pullback for Bullish Entry?I've been accumulating GBTC since $4.28 and as I was looking for the next dip to buy more I ended up with this setup idea that I decided to publish. It'd be a nice swing trade assuming we get down to the entry, though to be clear, this is not financial advice - I am not even planning on trading this other than accumulating more at the entry of $9.85 (will probably front run of course). That said, if there's something you see here that you can make use of, then awesome! If the GBTC premium stays where it is (which is a horrible assumption BTW), then the entry will be roughly equivalent to $8775 spot and the top-most profit target is around $12.3K.

Long Term VWAP Support/Resistance Using VWAPs anchored to the 3.1K "bottom" and last year's local top at 13.9K it appears that we are just under that heavy resistance. If we are rejected from the VWAP off the high here (I think we will be) then it's likely that the VWAP off the low will likely provide strong support (will probably be up in mid-8K's by the time we retrace that far). However, if irrational bullishness persists and we break above this VWAP with conviction, then our next likely area of heavy resistance is way up at 11.6K. If we do not break above and confirm our present area as a local top, then we will also confirm bearish divergence on the OBVCD (an OBV variant) which at least on the daily has proven to catch reversals quite well with Bitcoin. My personal plan is to wait and see what happens around this VWAP off the high... break below and I'll be a buyer at the VWAP off the low, break above and I will be a buyer on the retest of the 13.9K VWAP.

$SPY - Critical Institutional and Retail Markers Incoming Many are unaware of the Anchored VWAP tool and that is unfortunate, because this is a critical marker for large institutions and their orders. When anchored to significant market events, such as 1st trading day of each year, Highs, Lows, Election days, etc; this tool gains even more usefulness. As Brian Shannon, who has popularized the tool amongst retail traders like myself, oft repeats the Anchored VWAP is, "the perfect combination of the only 3 things that actually matter when trading - Volume , Time, and Price". If that doesn't sell you, just look at a few charts or try it yourself and if you're not impressed, you may just be ded lol. Well, gear up because as you can see here, we are approaching a critical zone of Institutional and Retail confluence. If you look back at the prior Weekly HL, we missed the critical 1/2019 VWAP after 3 attempts (whether by design or not), and it appears now they have worn enough people out to give it another go. NOT coincidentally, and beautifully designed, these critical VWAPs now fall at an impressive zone of numerous retail possible support zones as well. I always pay special attention when the most popular retail tools line up for extra S/R with the Institutional tools and this is certainly no exception. This is the location of the critical 1/2019 VWAP , the 2018 Low VWAP , the Weekly Higher Low (HL), the 200DMA & the 350 DMA. Quite an area! -Also quite interesting to note here is that over the next 10-20 days, the 200DMA will be losing its lowest calculation days BY FAR (thanks to the giant but quick Dip to the 2016 VWAP back during Xmas 2018) which should give the 200DMA significant upwards momentum shortly. A perfect boon for a recovery likely propelling us to new highs and perhaps (fingers crossed) finally getting us out of this sideways market we've been in for quite some time. Watch closely, and I suggest begin stalking your favorite long setups now.

Gold short idea Expecting a return to weekly POC in confluence with the demand zone and anchored VWAP. Entry should be found inside the broken base which is sitting at Friday's value area low.