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The Death Cross I was warning about sent the price plummeting.As I had said a couple days ago in a previous idea the death cross of the purple and blue moving average lines was dangerously close to occuring and would either cause a plummet in price or could potentially bounce off as well. The probability was much more highly in favor of the cross happening and at the beginning of the current days candle the 4hr chart 50EMA crossed under the 200EMA sending the price dpiraling downward. Major support happened at the 9200s region just as I was expecting and because of it we have seen a boucne back up. However the 50ema is still very much under the 200ema on the 4 hour so we need to see it reverse course soon if this inverted head and shoulders is going to become valid. The current bounce looks good on the 4 hour but the candlesticks on the daily seem to suggest a little more downside. On the 4 hour we got a nice green bullish reversal hammer though so hopefully the current 1 day candle will close as some sor t of doji. I still have hope for the head and shoulder pattern. Be cautious and try not to make any big moves at this time.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Why btc could drop into the 9200s before it reboundsShown here on the 4 hour chart I have a dotted horizontal white line representing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. below that I have connected a yellow dotted trendline from the low of the first shoulder to the candles we currently have now on the 2nd shoulder. I also took a dotted white line and made it run parallel with the necklines slope...one I did that you can see the smaller dotted white line is a few pips lower than the yellow dotted line...this is where the price would need to fall to make the slope of the shoulders parallel to the neckine. I don't know if that is a requirement for a head and shoulder pattern but I'm guessing it probably is commonly the case. This is why I make this prediction. Time will tell whether or not I'm right and whether or not the head and shoulders even plays out in the first place.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Inverted head & Shoulders still very much in play / Death CrossHey all just an update...I've pulled my btc position via stop loss last night at around 10490 but have decided to leave ethereum in for now as its doing well with robinhood...As the price continues to pullback the good news is an inverted head and shoulder pattern is still very much in play....however as you can see with the small yellow dotted lines that show the current price in a trendline with the deepest price point on the left shoulder, we might still not be at the depth peak of the right shoulders dip just yet.... the small white dotted line directly underneath the yellow dotted line has the exact same trajectory as the dotted white neckline of the head and shoulders and that line bottoms out around 9580. so we could still dip to the 9500s in fact that's the exact pricerange I see on the gdax depth chart where it looks like we have enough support volume at that pricepoint to carry us back into the 1100s.....Now I'm sure there's been plenty of head and shoulder patterns who's necklines and shoulder tops didn't run exactly parallel to eachother but there is at least a increased likelihood and mild improvement in probability that if the price did pivot in the 9500s at the parallel price point that the odds of it becoming a legitimate inverted head and shoulders once the shoulder reaches the end of the right shoulder fot it to indeed be a massive validated head and shoulders pattern with at that point after volume confirms it a lot of upside. Let me know in the comments how often the head and shoulders pattern's shoulder and necklines don't follow a parallel trendline if you happen to know or get a chance. Lastly we recently had a brief golden cross recently between the 200EMA and 50EMA but it appears the blue line and grape line are headed towards eachother again..it may lead to another death cross or it could bounce off before that happens...a death cross could be what finally pushes things down to the 9500 range. Thanks for reading...play responsibly. Always set responsible exit and entrance points to whatever fits best with your life.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
Bitcoin BTCUSD Next Buy Points TodayBitcoin Thursday Update The devil fools with the best laid plans. By 22:39 we were looking for a rally to kick in from the lows at 10200 with 3 near term upside tagets in mind, at 10684 and then 10857 and 11180. Then, because Bitcoin never sleeps but unfortunately we do, set a stop on the long under 10400 for overnight - and it was taken out about half an hour later at around midnight gmt at around evens. MOFO. If you were more sensible you left your stop 'under 10270' as per 22:39 update - and Bitcoin then made a secondary low at 10296 line precisely before finally rallying away. A change of nearterm trend at around midnight, as we see so often. So a sensible/good stop was ruined by overcaution due to going into the overnight session and not being able to track Bitcoin live as a consequence. . M any apologies if you too raised the stop. Since then Bitcoin has rallied to the second target overnight at 10857, making high at 10915 on Bitfinex before once more falling away again. You win some and some you just break even. The perils of 24hour trading laid bare. Now Bitcoin is tracking down a new set of parallels after topping out at 06:30 gmt (change of trend again between 05:00 and 09:00 gmt, as so often) in what looks to be another continuation pattern. Looking to buy once price can escape the upper upper parallel to upside - not a spike - a break with some green candles emerging and some pick up in volume (or, more risky, on test of lower parallel at 10296- 10200 range with stops below 10200) - want to see Bitcoin halt and find some support at 10300-10200 range to follow long - otherwise can wait until the upper parallel is broken through on successsful retest from above once broken
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
4
Reversal doji on the 4 hour chart to end yesterday. Bulls back?We got a welcome and relieving sign after all the carnage of the previous day a few hours ago at the end of yesterday's 1day candle...the downtrend on the 4 hour chart ended the day with a bullish green reversal doji, and we are now seeing what is so far a reasonable bounce up off of the multi support convergence of the 4 hour chart's 200EMA(in grape), 50EMA(in blue), and the bottom ascending channel trendline(in tan). the 200EMA seems to be the one that has taken the role of primary support so far, but the 50EMA which is just slightly above it may take over that role if the candles seem destined to stay bullish. On the 1 day chart it is the Tline(in yellow aka 8EMA) at roughly $10460 that is acting as support and currently the 50 EMA as resistance although we have had a wick sneak above it already so far so the real resistance for the day could be yet to be determined...may be the blue fib extension line at 78.60%(10883.5) and if we get some serious volume it could even break above that and find resistance even further up. Best to look and see what level of volume we get for the day to know for sure how much impact this boucne will have behind it. I think the recent integration of segwit will help with that, and hopefully keep things bullish. My hypothetical secondary inverted head and shoulders that I've been talking about for a few days is still forming rather nicely I went ahead and indicated on the graph..assuming we stay within the trend lines until a confirmed inverted head and shoulder breakout if so (it breaks the neckline and has a huge bullish volume swell to go with it and no bearish divergence from mac d or rsi) I think we can hit our new taget of 17147! Exciting times but play cautiously and let us never forget the carnage we witnessed last night. set reasonable exit and entrance points and I wish you all luck.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
hypothetical extended invertedhead & shoulder neckline breached?The Bull run continues. was happy to see the momentum happening today. I added to my position at the near-bottom of today's candle's dip (10300). It surpassed the red fibline and may be keeping it as a line of support depending on how today closes out. Today's best trading probability opportunities would be small laddering in at 10300 and profit taking just below the top of the tan trendline. We seem still well on our way to reach the initial inverted head and shoulder trajectory target at 11900...but I might have spotted the potential for the real shoulders of the inverted head and shoulders to be much more massive tahn originally thought...and if we close today's candle where we are in price now or above that, that would signify that the larger hypothetical neckline(the tan horizontal dashed line) had been breached which would equal a far higher climb(vertical tan dashed line) I don't know if Head and shoulders patterns can operate like that or if its possible for a chart pattern to trigger twice though and would love to hear input from anyone who knows the history of the head and shoulder pattern better than I to know whether or not my hypothetical is even possible. Even if not I still suspect we will flirt with the top green channel line....and if it is correct I think we will blow the lid off the channel and sky's the limit. Thanks to all who have folloed or agreed with my ideas, I have finally hit 100 rep points so for that I am grateful. As always these are my methods not suggesting anyone use them as this is not financial advise. You do you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
LINK forming textbook example of cup and handle pattern$LINK is forming a textbook example of a cup and handle pattern. Volume increased near the bottom, handle didn't retrace more than 50%, and we're getting a spike in volume near the breakout point of the handle. I expect some long term gains Link itself is a awesome project with a great vision. Strategy: Buy below 0.0007 Sell at: 0.00098 (We're going to blast trough this one, so only sell at this point if you're a very active trader) Rebuy at: 0.00075 Sell at update will follow
Long
by JaimeKing
Litecoin: LTCUSD Far Eastern Interest Returning / DominatingLitecoin: LTCUSD Far Eastern Interest Returns Timings on LTC show strong far East interest re-emerging. That surge of green on 14th began at midnight gmt/19:00est just before markets opened up as early birds caught the worm and price began to fly high through two lines of old resistance before topping out at the 233 line, at 21:00est just 30 or so minutes after far Eastern markets had all opened are strong clues. These markets are still in overall control of this coin and their returning interest has to be good for LTC longer term. But in shorter term Litecoin is unwinding an overbought condition by trading sideways in the range dominated by resistance at 233-237 at the top and two lines of support at 215 and 207 at the bottom of the range. But very nearterm support lies at 223 which must hold if it's to avoid rinsing off back to 216-215 during the course of the day if buying interest continues to wane - and may get forced back to 207-206 at worst if 215 in turn gives way later today - but if so look to add as these levels are touched in the quiet period leading up to midnight gmt/19:00est. Alternatively, should these lower levels not get touched and LTC can hold up all day at 223 and above it can be bought on a successful breach of the little dynamic resistance line running above price on this chart with stops below the same line, just under 223 if the break occurs sooner than midnight gmt/19:00est.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
3
EURUSD and DXY confirming signal of change in trend for dollarEURUSD EURUSD and DXY EUR is tracking an inverse set of parallels to DXY. When EUR breaks lower it's a second sell/add shorts signal which must be confirmed by DXY breaking above the upper parallel containing this impulse wave from inception. DXY has to break and hold above that parallel before the bears will back off - but it's fighting here, where it should if it's to turn back up from here. The confirming signal is the break above the upper parallel. DXY Dollar Index Despite the spike and noise surrounding CPI numbers yesterday DXY has been forced back down the same small parallels it was travelling down before the numbers hit the newsfeeds. As in last comment Dollar bulls still have the double bottom on their side here. The last one was one week apart, this one is 2 weeks apart. The Dollar is likely to hold here at these lower levels and then begin to rally. It's waiting on Wall St to open now but bears in London have failed to push it below the double bottom. A sign of waning downside momentum. Once it can break above the upper small parallel guiding the descent it should attract more buyers and move back up to test the 89.37 line where it will likely meet resistance again...it has to push on through here during the course of today for the bulls to gain more traction and flip DXY into more positive mode from this point. This battle may take some time to resolve - DXY has to fight its way through three lines of near term resistance at 89.37, 89.51 and then 89.62 to turn back to positive again. Look to buy dips here and on the pairs with stops under 88.40 on DXY for small loss if wrong from here. Increase longs on move above the smaller upper parallel. On downside, DXY will have to break below 88.40 today to change this view to near term negative but only back to 87.70 at lowest where DXY should find final support and begin to rally again. But so long as 88.40 holds up today the Dollar's downtrend is finally coming to an end.
by sumastardon
BTC Blows up outta the inverted h&s pttern brking the neckline! The neckline has been breached in big fashion! However not as much volume as you would anticipate to go with it....that may very well come today. it has blasted past all recent lines of resistance and now seems to be forming it's new resistance line with the green fibonacci retracement line. We may most likely see it bounce back down and see the inverted head and shoulder neck line as the current support at which point I say is the best opportunity to buy in and enjoy being back on the impending bull trend to come. I'd do any selling just below the green fib line and any buying near the thin grey head and shoulder neck line! Bring on Pamplona!!!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
3
FTSE 100: UK100 Key levels and Trade Set-ups todayFTSE 100 UK 100GBP Key Levels and Trade set-ups today This chart shows FTSE's great 9 year rally from start point at the lows of 2009 to the end point on 11.01.18. This cycle forms part a longer 9 year year cycle that was described and shown in last FTSE comment. The lines of support and resistance are clear and should be helpful in coming trades... FTSE has bounced excatly where it should have (last comment) and rallied to exactly where it should have within 3 points or so. Day traders and bottom fishers have closed out where you'd expect looking at the lines and now left FTSE vulnerable to further selling pressure...looks quite likely to restest the 7085 line here and if this cannot hold it will fall away further still to 6904 and just under to 6870 - but it should try to put up a fight at 7085 if tested later - it's most likely the key level today, being positive above here and negative below. On upside it has to break above 7210 and hold to trigger a long up to 7294. Markets are due to remain voolatile - A break below/above any blue line should lead to a test of the next one. But run stops around 30 points higher/lower than the trigger levels and trail up/down. Still expect a bottom to be reached between 3rd and 10th March as per last comment but it can whipsaw in between and should present some decent trades (with stops) as a result.
OANDA:UK100GBP
by sumastardon
Inverse Head and shoulder pattern has formed! Watch 4 the break.On the 4 hour chart we can see a clear inverted head and shoulders pattern has formed...it needs to go above the thinner grey line to break the neck line in order to be valid, but even then, we need bullish confluence in every key indicator (rsi, stoch, mac d and especially Volume) to validate the pattern. To break the grey neckline we will need to get above 9,000 and close the 4hour candle there. Currently the depth chart on gdax suggests that the sell wall will engulf the buy wall just before it hits 9,000 and send it back down as far as 7900-8100, however it may be able to still shoot back up again before the 4 hour candle closes to over 9,000 breaking the trendline and validating the pattern...even if it doesn't break the trendline on this candle, keep in mind that sometimes head and shoulder patterns will retest the trendline, so I think it's very possible we will see it break the nackline within the next 3 days. I plan on waiting until the depth chart dumps and getting some more bitcoin then to take full advantage once it breaks the trendline. If I don't see the volume to go with the pattern once it does break then I will amke sure to safeguard myself with appropriate stop losses. A special thank you to all those so far who have read, and liked my ideas. Thanks to you, I have finally reached the coveted 50 reputation points needed to be able to communicate on other traders idea pages haha. I'm still fairly new here to this space so thanks again for your time...and always this is only what I plan to do and not financial advice....you do you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
FTSE 100 Index: UKX - Cycle High - Short Set-Ups with triggersFTSE 100 Index: UKX Long Term Time Cycles in FTSE Index After rising 10% at the start of the 2018 FTSE has fallen all the way back its start point for the year. Up 10% and back down 10% in 6 short weeks. The action looks unlikely to stop now. In fact it could be just beginning. Probably the greatest trader who ever lived, WD 0.61% Gann , told us to measure time cycles from high tolow and low to high as well as high to high and low to low and look for potential changes in trend as these hiddden cyclesrepeat themselves down through time. Previous cycle highs identified the exact date of the high in 2007 as well as thesubsequent high reached in April 2015 just at the point thatmarkets began a 10 month 20+% correction (for more detailsplease PM) . This cycle marks the period from 10.03.09 majorcrash low through to the next major cycle low on 06.03.09. From major cycle low to low is 9 years ...which now brings us, after a 9 year long bull run, to the coming 23 to 27 days,culminating in the anniversary dates between 3rd march and 10th March 2018... FTSE is already teetering on the brink of critical support at 7092. It has to cling on here on Monday for any failure will tip this index into bearish territory and trigger a short back to 6868 at least - and then if this level in turn gives way back to 6680-6637. Beneath here the next major support potential lies at the lower parallel and below here at 5777. So if 7090 gives way on Monday by more than 10 points look to short this index with stops above 7099, targeting 6870 initially, then the 6680-6637 range if 6860 fails to hold during Monday. It's quite probable that should 7090 fail come Monday, this Index will fall away in stages to test the lower parallel at 6004 on around 5th March - and only then bounce away to the upside again.This will present some wonderful shorting opportunities along the descent. However, in the very near term it's likely that contrarian traders will look to go long here, simply because the stop is so close (20 points away maximum now) but ready to reverse short as above if 7090gives way by more than 10 points. Time, as always, tells.
TVC:UKX
by sumastardon
ALPHABET: GOOG Volatility = OpportunityAlphabet: GOOG Curious Case of the Unfilled Gap Normally when Google beats earnings expectaions it tends to gap up and away for a couple of months or more and then, eventually, momentum begins to wane and it comes back off to fill the gap. It's been that way for so many quarters now and every gap has always been filled in the end - and notice when it does get filled that moment (that day, not minute as with Bitcoin) presents the best buying opportunity you will find...every time....because it tells you in advance where the low should be. Helpful if you're looking to build a long position in any FANG. Works every time. Except once. That red arrow at 900 shows the one large gap here into new high ground that has never been filled. Friday's price action has led to a second test of the last gap created during last earnings season. For those with a technical interest there is also a fabulous island reversal showing at the very top of the rally with a tiny gap created to left of the red arrrow at 1160 followed by the massive fracture which begins from the same level. The ensuing bear rampage takes price all the way back to that same gap zone before it bounces again. Mind the Gaps. They are very interesting from a technical perspective and create some great short term trading opportunities on the rare occasions when a stock like GOOG runs into a consolidation phase. Having bounced from the gap zone GOOG has rallied to test the underside of the structure to its left at 1046-1050 and come to a temporary halt at 1037. Nasdaq is likely to remain volatile next week, the environment we need to go out scalping Maybe Goog can still make a getaway from the gap zone, just as it has always done in the recent past (bar1) - but if so it still looks like it will need a retest to prove it. Whilst unable to move and hold up above 1046-1050 it's likely to retest 996-987 again. And if at any point on Monday 987 gives way it can be shorted back to 961. Then if this level in turn fails it can be shortred a second (or third) time to 942 and most likely back to the lower parallels where it becomes a buy again if struck with stops below for those who may have been waiting to buy Alphabet for the longer term. A 20% decline would create a target at 948 and 21% at 937. On the upside Goog has to move above 1050 and then hold up at 1037 on any retest to trigger a long but only if it holds up well at 1037 and then moves up through 1050 with some volume behind it - then it can be followed up to 1080 but run a stop up underneath it quite tight just in case it fails. The next near term long shot from here triggers from 1085 to 1120 and then from 1125 to the top of the gap at 1159. As to the case of the unfilled gap...to fill the missing gap the parallel will have to be broken. Google likes to fill big gaps. It's in its nature. It could happen eventually and if it breaks below 987 come Mondaythat will be the first signal that either the parallel or the gap itself will become the final low. More as this move develops.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by sumastardon
S&P 500 Index SPX Next Buy and Sell Points TodayS&P 500 Index SPX Next Buy and Sell Points Today A poor call on this index yesterday led to the loss of some 12 -15 points as the buy point at 2627 was broken and the stop at 2614 triggered. It wiped out the 6 point win earlier but at least the 60 point win on the short on Moday and the next 60 points or so from the long on Tuesday means the point tally for the week is still positive, if a little depleted. Yesterday's price action has driven the S&P to a new closing low, taking it back to fill the little gap that shows on this chart at 2584. A 10% move from the top = 2585, the low yesterday was 2580. So long as this low holds out today on any retest this corrrection remains a standard deviation - but the low at 2580 must stick now for the medium term trend to stay positive from here - any fall below 2580 by more than 4 points will tip this index back into bear territory and force it lower to 2543 (first short) and then if this level breaks to 2488 (second short). On the upside, whilst stuck within the range and below 2619 it's not giving a strong enough signal to trigger a trade...it has to break above here and hold there to trigger a rally to 2668 which should be worth following with stops just under 2600. Alternatively can be bought at 2607 current levels with stops below 2600 and added to once 2619 is broken above. This is higher risk but also higher reward. Others will prefer to wait for next signal to trigger before entering positions.
SP:SPX
by sumastardon
1