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CRB Index: TRJEFFCRB Useful Back-up for Gold and Oil tradersCRB Index Commodities Index: TRJEFFCRB The CRB index - Back-up Confirmation for Gold and Oil Trades. It's useful to know which way the greater wind blows before setting sail. This wind is with the bulls and has been off and on since June. It's making a nice trend of its own, grinding away each bear in its path until 195.62 is reached - up about 2.5% from here. Do not consider shorting gold, oil, silver or copper aggressively until 195.62 is reached on this index, except near term scalping raids which will carry wiith them all the risks associated with trading against a trend. Even the deftest of scalpers will need their A game to make much from shorting, and will likely have to move fast to bag any profits. Any bears with a medium term view are going to get crushed. Can therefore only turn aggressively bearish of Oil once the lower parallel channelling this impulse wave is broken on downside. Then you know the greater wind is turning and it's finally time to change tack and start selling rallies again. This index has a look of latent strength behind it - 195.62 will not hold it back for long. Once passed it will rally another 5 points or a firther 2.5% to 203.6. Then look for the wind to change and at least a 2.5% fall back to 195.6 again. Get this medium to longer term idea of push and pull and you can make some very good returns. Good trading to the 3 wise men who bother to read such arcane research. You will do well. Never so sure about the rest though...
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by sumastardon
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Next buy point and triple play in quiet marketBitcoin: BTCUSD One quiet Saturday playing Bitcoin V Mon-Fri 9-5 job. Do the math. Whilst above 7717 key near term support the bulls are still in charge here. The opening in China will likely drive price down but it should hold up off the lower parallel and down to 7717. Touches here are buying opportunities with stops under 7000 line and if they produce pin bars will show that Bitcoin is still quite strong at these levels - and so long as 7717 continues to hold all is good for Bitcoin. It's making a small continuation pattern prior to moving higher by look of current price action. A break above the small dynamic holding price back right now on chart is the next signal to go go long/increase longs.It should then continue to grind higher to 7980-8000 where it becomes a sell for day traders if 7970 is touched. The 250 points of profit (200 after spreads) can then be risked on two trades, depending on risk profile and whether day-trading. If there looks to be still no real volume as prices move up to 8000 consider reversing current long at 7990 with stop 40 points higher looking for 150 -200 points on the downside. But be ready to reverse and flip long again if we see 8030 broken at any point (blowing the short stop for 40 loss) and particularly if higher volumes accompany this break out attempt above the key 8000 barrier - (a big green candle tells you this, you don't need to see a volume indicator to know this, really) - look to get long with stop 110 points under 8000. If it then fails you end up breaking even. But if it wins and breaks 1000 points higher ...(last weekend we made 1450 points, but the market was more fluid then. This weekend, so far has been very quiet. so am only hoping for 250 to 7780 and (maybe 170 short from 7990) - but it still beats working Mon-Fri - even when it's quiet. Am moving stop to 7700 for 30 loss if wrong from here. You don't need to believe in Bitcoin. You don't even need to own Bitcoin for more than a few days at a time. You just need to trade Bitcoin when the chart tells you it's Ok to do so, using stops. We've taken over 3000 points out this thing in exactly 2 weeks that's 38% of the total value of Bitcoin - in 2 weeks. Without owning it. All calls are there to check.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD So close to slamming freezer on this nowBitcoin Update Update from 20 minutes ago, embargoed stopped out of last trade for 50 point los, and up to 100 if looser. It's finding support and building pin bars off the blue old resistance line from the old highs. Should stooge around a little longer, moving between 7830 and 7719 before likely moving up again. If 7719 gives way between now and early on as far Eastern markets open it should find support off the recent highs at 7510 and off the lower big parallel too. looks more likely, as the pattern stands now, to move sideways off 7719 line, turning old resistance into major support, should it continue to hold as envisaged. So it's a buy now and over the next hour or so. And if this level holds, you can probably call it the freezer lid. If it holds, Bitcoin is finally tagged, bagged and now so close to having the freezer lid slammed shut. If we see this price action evolve over coming couple of hours only then can we maybe claim the trophy. If so, let it ride, lock the freezer and hide the key and let's see where it takes us. We only need to worry if 7719 gives way. Well done. So close now to throwing away that key. Stops need to be uder 7700 as if it fails it should test 7570 where it becomes a buy agin with stop under the parallel.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUST Need to raise stopsBitcoin: BTCUSD Hate raising stops before China opens, especially after yesterday, but it could be that it gets sold off to begin with. If so look to buy from lower, having locked in profits We are long from 3 buy points today: !st was the break and hold above key resistance at 6950 (after closing out a 230 point gain as this level was hit and then losing 50 points on the ensuing short from the same level) 2nd on first touch of the lower parallel at 7090 (stop 50 points lower) 3rd on the break above the continuation pattern highlighted earlier today at 7170. Need to put a stop under some fairly hard-won gains and also put a limit level on for exit, if we see it, before the stops get hit. The stop on all positions can placed just under 7200. Bitcoin has been good to day traders again, pinging off support and resistance lines, though the lows were 13 points higher at 7090 than we could have done with as the perfect entry point if 6950 break had been missed earlier. That spike off the 7346 resistance line is the first for a while and so it could be that when far Eastern markets open it could get sold off...if so, look to buy back at 7134 and below down to 7090 with stops under 7060. On the upside, providing we don't get stopped out first, we should look to exit at 7540, or just under.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bicoin: BTCUSD Reverse head and shoulders now clearerBitcoin Update The reverse head and shoulders pattern is clearer now.. Right on the breaking point now and therefore vulerable to a failure here...but it looks good so far... Because the H and S pattern is clearer it also gives a clearer measurement target on the upside once 7425 is beaten: 77333 is the minimum measurement implication of this break, if and when it occurs so it should be worth following. It would be helpful if it came back to 7350 (if 7350 gives way at any point it could spike down to 7290 -7280 at absolute worst so we have be wary with stops, not to get taken out of a good position on a spike - the worst feeling in world, being right, but still losing money...that is the worst kind of pain, the worst kind of loss. Better to be outright wrong!) Still a battle going on at the neckline now ...if it now breaks higher from here, obviously that shows real strength again...follow it. Otherwise we wait and see if we can get in from lower down at 7350, maybe even 7300 on a spike (put in order in and see if it gets hit...this is what causes those pin bars!!!) - but we'l have to leave the stop below 7250 to begin with if struck to avoid getting hit. Otherwise we trade breakout on upside when it comes. Good luck and be careful with stops!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
Alphabet:GOOG Long term and short term targetsALPHABET: GOOG THE Alpha Bet Google goes on and on, creating a wide pair of parallels as it pushes relentlessly onwards. Only the Regulators can stop them. If Bitcoin's your favourite girlfriend, Google is your mum, (or should be, with Facebook as dad). Looks like Alphabet should push higher towards 1075 where the upper parallel waits to repel it., or at least halt its advance for a while - and what's good for Google is good for world markets usually. (Nasdaq, next comment, is poised to rocket 280 points provided it opens up and moves higher from the open, as looks likely at moment, barring disasters between now and Monday open). Over the longer term, in a year's time, Alphabet should be trading between 1450 and 1500, slowly grinding ever higher, and likely still within the long term controlling parallels shown on the chart. Stops for long term holders can be raised to just below 950
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin possibly returning to <5000$ (short term)Bitcoin seems to form a pretty clear "complex Head and Shoulders" as tought by John Murphy in his book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets", one of the foundations in education of technical analysis. As Bitcoin was not able to set a new high, we may now see the start of a correction initiated by exactly that head and shoulders. The decreasing volume from peak to peak (left shoulder highest volume, head less volume, right shoulder least volume) strenghtens this idea. A significant break (1h-candle closing more than 1% under the neckline, increased volume) through the neckline would confirm the h&s and indicate that the price is aiming at <5000$ (pink arrow projecting down the distance head-neckline from neckline as tought by John J Murphy). After breaking the neck, a return to this specific line would be likely before further downward movement. If this happens, I'll open a short position with a tight stop above the neckline which should work as a resistance at this point. As we are still in a strong long term uptrend, Bitcoin breaking through this new resistance is not unlikely. This may be a pretty risky trade, so I'm only going to open a small position and, as I already mentioned, keep my stop tight. Beyond technical analysis there seems to be a lot of disapointment because of Bitcoin Gold and the connected "free money" (even though something like that does not exist, the market always rebalances). At least I personally am reading a lot of negative comments and nearly no positive feedback. As this was one of the reasons for Bitcoin reaching approximately 6200$ I feel like Segwit2x will not be able to push the price any further and a correction is about to take place (MACD and stochastic RSI on daily basis affirm this statement, unfortunately I was not able to add them up there). After all, everything that goes up has to come down (before moving up even further :) ). Please keep in mind that I am by no means an expert and this should not be considered investment advice. To be even more clear, I'm in the game for only a few month and this is my first public analysis. So don't be afraid to give me some constructive feedback, I'll be thankfull about that.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by HFBN
6