Anglo American PLC | ShortIf I'm analyzing a market, I always force myself to consider what the "other side" is thinking.
In other words, if my research suggests a buy, I take a good long look at the chart, fundamentals and the market in general and think about what the bears might be thinking.
I do this to try and ensure I don't miss anything. At least nothing glaringly obvious!
A couple of days ago I posted an AMS chart, which in many ways is similar to AGL.
And once again, I'm interested in the short side.
Now, if I was interested in a long, what would I be after?
Very simple answer when you look at this chart - if I wanted to buy, you wouldn't get me to place an order before 32600 at the very best. A buy here or anywhere before that is in no mans land, and if I were a long-term bull, like so many fund managers have to be, I want to buy at the best value that I can.
So, if there is no point in buying until 32600, I'm happy to short here instead.
Angloamerican
PLATINUM/RAND (XPT/ZAR) 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORTI will be selling the XPT/ZAR if prices breach below the R11 550 price. Currently, prices are moving in a downtrend, g=forming a series of lower highs and lower lows and bear flags. If we see the corrective structure being breached to the downside, we will get our confirmation for a short trade.
Short on Anglo AmericanJSE:AMS has reached a resistance level just above the 83000 level. It reached this high on the 22nd of March bu then retraced all the way down to the 72000 level.
Before this, the last time it reached these levels was in April 2010.
My thoughts are that it is going to retrace downwards again and I am looking for a move back down to the 72000 level. If it does break through the previous high, we can see a move towards the 90000 area.
But my bet is on a short.
ANGLO IS TRADING AT A KEY LEVEL - EXPECTING UPSIDEAngloGold Ashanti is an internationaly acclaimed gold mining company with a geographically diverse and world-class portfolio of operations and projects. Headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa, AngloGold Ashanti is the third largest gold mining company in the world, measured by production. The company was established in 1998 when the gold and uranium interests of Anglo American Corporation of South Africa were consolidated.
The group has 17 gold mines in 9 countries, has several exploration programs in established and new gold producing regions and is listed on 5 stock exchanges, including its primary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Operating regions include South Africa, Guinea, Mali, Ghana, the DRC and Tanzania, as well as South America and Australasia.
Weekly: We can see an impulse on the left of the chart and then a 3 wave corrective structure which broke to the upside. While there may be an interim pull back in price, I have a final target of 45000 - 47000 on the second impulse on the weekly time frame.
Daily: Price is trading very close to the bottom of the daily structure. This is an important level as price could go either way from here. Should the structure break to the downside, a smaller confirmation structure will confirm the downside. Should there be a reversal, I am confident that wave 5 to the upside will complete at the weekly impulse target.
It's time to bet on platinumFor almost two and a half years, JSE:AMS was stuck in a range of between R260 and R380, only once breaking out for a brief period.
In July of this year, however, the stock found good momentum, reaching a high of R500.37. It has since come off this high and is now offering traders a good entry point. Take a look at the above chart.
Firstly, note how Amplats is reacting to its 50-day EMA. It appears to be finding support at this level, which is a good indication that it could return to bullish momentum.
In addition, looking at the Slow Stochastic, JSE:AMS is somewhat oversold at these levels. For this reason I expect the share to turn to the upside.
Looking at the chart, I can't help but have a bullish view on Amplats and for this reason I will be going long on this stock.
Action: Place a Limit order to BUY at R460 with Stop Loss set at R425. I will aim to take profit at R495 and R520 respectively.
Margin: 13%
Gearing: 7.69x
Gain: +100.33%
Risk: -58.53%
Is Anglo American poised for a sell-off to 872?The share currently trades at 1080. A sell-off to 872 means 19% drop! This the downside target as per the measured height method. Take note of the large head and shoulders breakdown pattern.
The daily RSI is close to but not yet oversold. The weekly RSI shows a nice rounding top pattern and is sufficiently far away from the oversold region.
We also saw a typical shakeout of the 'weak bears' following the breach of the neckline on April 18. Prices then failed again to hold above neckline and here we are today... trading at 1080. It is not looking good for Anglo American and broader markets.
A drop to 872 (19% drop) looks likely if - Pound continues to rally and moves to 1.33-1.35 levels and oil, iron ore prices slump. Well one may also consider a potential Trump Slump or Marine Le Pen victory this Sunday.
What if Fed strongly hints at balance sheet reduction tomorrow? All these factors could yield a drop to 872
Anglo American – Bearish divergence & breach of rising trendlineThe daily chart shows bearish price RSI divergence followed by a breach of the short-term rising trend line.
The doors have been opened for a drop to 100-DMA levels, which is seen rising to 1020 over the next few days.
Bearish invalidation is seen only if prices retake rising trend line, while fresh buying is seen only in case of a daily close above the recent high of 1270.50.