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APA

IMO - Poised for moveIMO is the best looking oil company chart that I could find. The weekly pattern shows the possibility of a three week test of the low. This support level includes the 40 week moving average and the .326 fib retracement level. The wave structure suggests that we may be in the fourth wave of an impulse pattern, with wave five to begin soon. Often, wave five moves for commodities are the longest waves. The trade range spans from 24 to 34. A longer term view shows that this trade range has persisted since 2015. Beyond 34, the stock had reached as high as 63 and ran into the 50s two other times. IMO's price correlates very well with the price of CL oil futures. I think that in the equity world, it might be the best choice to trade oil, in the equity market. I'm open to others' suggestions. What other oil stocks are you looking at? I owned Exxon and Chevron until June when a move to turn Exxon green moved me to liquidate all oil shares. Since then, I have bought some RSX, a Russian market ETF. Seems that under the current administration, oil profits will accrue to Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
AMEX:IMOLong
by Glewis54
Higher Oil? What's the Best Stock?It appears that Oil is in a wave 4 consolidation with wave 5 coming next. In commodities, the fifth wave is often the longest and most explosive. Short of moving into the futures markets, I'm curious as to what the best stock to play for a move to 100+ in oil. The chart below indicates that Chevron has best kept up with the price of oil with Exxon/Mobil following behind. Others in the comparison are Apache and Occidental. Welcoming any and all thoughts on this.
NYMEX:CL2!Long
by Glewis54
THE WEEK AHEAD: ULTA EARNINGS; APA, UNG, VIXEARNINGS: Earnings are light in the coming week, with ULTA (90/47) being the best candidate metrically for a earnings-related volatility contraction play, although its liquidity isn't great. Pictured here is a 205/210/265/270 iron condor in the January cycle that is paying 2.06 at the mid (1.03 at 50% max). Markets, however, are showing wide here. SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW: APA (100/71) CGC (75/89) NTNX (66/43) X (52/27) See APA, CGC posts below. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: UNG (51/54) USO (37/37) TLT (34/12) XLE (26/19) FXI (23/20) XOP (23/34) First expiries in which at-the-money short straddle pays >10% of the value of the underlying: UNG: January, 2.84 versus 17.83 (15.9%) USO: April, 1.84 versus 11.62 (15.8%) TLT: January of '21, 14.78 versus 140.42 (10.5%) XLE: June, 7.20 versus 58.89 (12.2%) FXI: May, 4.18 versus 40.94 (10.2%) XOP: January, 2.06 versus 20.36 (10.1%) Already up to my nipples in oil and gas plays, so may consider a small FXI position. Naturally, May is a bit farther out in time than I'd like -- the 36/46 short strangle camped out around the 16 delta is paying 1.06 there. BROAD MARKET: QQQ (4/15) IWM (4/15) SPY (4/12) First expiries in which at-the-money short straddle pays >10% of the value of the underlying: QQQ: June, 21.71 versus 205.10 (10.6%) IWM: June, 16.34 versus 161.77 (10.1%) SPY: Sept, 34.63 versus 314.31 (11.0%) QQQ June 181/226 20 delta short strangle, 6.48 credit (1.62 at 25% max; 3.24 at 50% max) IWM June 143/180 20 delta put/16 delta call* short strangle, 4.33 credit (1.08 at 25% max; 2.17 at 50% max) SPY September 274/345 20 delta short strangle, 10.70 credit (2.68 at 25% max; 5.35 at 50% max). * -- Strikes on the call side are 5-wide at the moment, with the 180 at the 16, the 175 at the 25. FUTURES: /6B (63/14) /NG (51/90) /ZF (39/3) /CL (37/39) /ZN (37/4) OVX popped big on Friday, so I will look to add short premium setups in /CL if that nearly 37 print hangs in there over the next couple of sessions. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: With /VX futures contracts trading at 16.39, 17.65, and 17.86 in January, February, and March, respectively. VIX term structure trades remain viable for those expiries. For everything else, wait for a pop in VIX -- which finished Friday's session at 12.62 ... .
NASDAQ:ULTA
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: APA JAN 17TH 20 MONIED CC or JAN 17TH 20 SHORT PUTWith broad market and exchange-traded funds being temporarily unproductive from a premium-selling standpoint, I've been scouring the earth for high rank/high implied underlyings. APA (100/74) is one of them with earnings in the rear view. Pictured here is a monied covered call with the short call at the 20 strike in the January cycle. Markets are showing wide here (16.05/17.70/19.34), most of which is due to after hours pricing of the stock, which ended the regular session at 23.22, with the short call at 4.17 at the mid, implying a possible fill of 19.05 with .95 max for the monied covered call (5% ROC); the same strike short put pays .91 at the mid with a cost basis of 19.09 if assigned, so it's six of one, half dozen of the other in a cash secured environment, but greater buying power efficiency on margin by going short put over the covered call. Go less monied with the call -- at the 22.5 strike, and you're looking at potential 20.65 fill and 1.85 max (9% ROC); the 22.5 short put pays 1.76 with a cost basis of 20.74 if assigned.
A
by NaughtyPines