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Apha

APHA - Break out or down?Important day tomorrow. If the bill gets rejected, the current setup will most likely morph into a reversal pattern. You can see from the way the waves have been progressing here, that everybody is on the sidelines, but not ready to let go. Weak bulls were shaken out today, and if the news will be positive, prepare for a FOMO ride into the $9 - $10 range. So far, I think it looks good. Lots of energy to be released. A break lower would likely see the lower $7 retested. Lets just see what happens tomorrow. Both paths illustrated. A drop lower would imply that the (iii) and (iv) pivots are in the wrong place, a move higher would confirm the pivots points where they are (orthodox top).
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by Barkworth
3
APHA Finally a DipAlways 3 possibilities (up, down, sideways). If my proposed count is correct, then this would be a wave 4. The guideline of wave alternation suggests we should expect a flat or a triangle. Trend lines and channels support this possibility. Alternatively, there is a lurking gap. I've drawn in a triangle and a gap close. That gap close would likely be a correction of a larger degree, and suggest that my micro count is wrong. For now, the larger degree is very bullish, but extended. $7.65 was weekly resistance. Will it hold?
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by Barkworth
APHA - The Big Move Could be StartingI've revisited some earlier counts, and based on the current setup, I've decided to move away from the complicated intermediate wave 2 correction, and settle on a simple ABC with a volatile A wave instead. Minor wave 1 moved to previous X wave, minor wave 2 replaces the previous Y wave. Current setup just broke above an intra year downtrend, and normally, this line would see a retest. Based on the interlinked series of 1-2's the chart suggests that we are looking a the start of a big, explosive move up.
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by Barkworth
3
$APHA at resistance $APHA (CAD) has had a great run this month. It is currently at resistance and probability of a retracement is high. I am unloading half my position here and holding another half for a much longer term outlook. Price target is $14 then at the highs in the $20s. Short term support is around $8 and the 20 MA below that. The way I am going to play this selling a $10 cover call with my remaining positions, then sell a put at $8 hoping to get the shares cheaper.
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by LiCapitalTrading
1
APHA - What?!Just kidding with the title. But still, where are we in the progression? Is this still minor wave 1, will we see a minuette wave 5, or is the top in? The Night Monkeys keep closing the gaps before we can either buy or sell. Extended chart shows this wave in a different light. $6.40 was tested on low volume. I am assuming the start of minute wave 5 there. This assumption is consistent with the notion to buy a bull break of $6.40. Confluence marked on the chart, in the $8 region. At the same time, most internals show underlying weakness, on all timeframes. But usually, assets with strong momentum trade sideways for a time, waiting for indicators to catch up, before triggering another impulse. I'm not entirely sure about this proposed count. It will be invalidated if $6.40 breaks. So my stop loss is at $6.30. I do strongly feel that this is still minor wave 1 of intermediate wave 3. Keep in mind, that I don't have a crystal ball. I'm going to do a bearish alternative now, and post in a few minutes.
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by Barkworth
APHA Bearish DivergenceAs said in the previous post, look for a break of $6.40 with conviction. If you caught the break out, you're sitting here comfortably observing this madness. I think many were surprised by this move. Now what. I'm not really sure what we're looking at, but I am proposing an extended wave 5. $7.26 reached pre market, and could be the top of this move. The rest of the day basically nothing but profit taking. Weak end of day rally. Bullish close. Bearish divergence, steadily decreasing volume. I want to see $6.40 re-tested. At least that.
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by Barkworth
APHA Bull CountAs pointed out yesterday, a break above that diagonal would be bullish. We got that break and it tested $6.59. Currently resides exactly on top of that diagonal, and looks like we have some upside. Congrats if you followed me, and were long from the previous entries. I'm disappointed because it looks like we won't get the gap fills to accumulate, but if this continues, we still have opportunities to add a few bags to our positions. Potential bull targets for this move $7.49 - $8.37 - $9.33 and $10.21 Needs to stay above $5.73 for this alternative to be valid.
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by Barkworth
APHA back to original planWave looks corrective, so I just sold the batch I purchased at $5.22. Looking for continuation, depending on afternoon volume. Definitely in the sell zone here. Hopefully we'll see wave C commence next week, so that we can reload. PS. I'm still long with a reasonable bag I purchased during intermediate wave 1. I like playing the stock's volatility with smaller batches, as it makes the investment more viable. I do see APHA above $10 very soon. Currently waiting for the Sweetwater deal to close (expected December 20th).
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by Barkworth