APPL
APPL Detecting Successful Trades Without Needing a SubscriptionI see a successful trade as a trade either makes money or mitigates losses and further loses. An example of this is the trade I made on may 17th and exited 5 minutes into the day of May 18th. The price dropped 5% further.
Long story short, I have thought APPL looked like crap since April 7th, when both Hull averages on the day and 4HR timeframe lined up in a bad way just days after APPL was set up in a bullish formation (with my indicators). To me, that kind of movement is a standard signal for significant downwards movement.
Possible downwards targets where I look for action. Key mention. When looking for a buy I expect nothing to bounce 100% anywhere. I almost ALWAYS look at price action at these areas. I never expect a bounce or drop for sure just because a line resides there.
Downwards targets:
118-122
79-88
I list the possible upwards targets in the video, but if somehow APPL does go up, it most likely has a lot of bumps on the way. Saying definitive upwards targets seems disingenuous.
The 2 Indicators I use are listed in the first 30 seconds of the video. By using only 2 indicators, this means that anyone can use this strategy to analyze on TV without needing to buy a subscription. I still recommend the subscription for analyzing, because I enjoy double charts.
DoubleHull by KivancOzbilgic (375 and 500 length Hull moving averages)
SMMA (200 length Smoothed moving average) Not the SMA! (Simple moving average)
If you'd like, you can check my Related Idea "Market Update: Being right is boring" below. I mention APPL at the 2 Minute mark.
I also added the Related Idea "How I Analyze the Market in 20 minutes." which gives a more in depth look with more examples of how I analyze the overall market using the 500/375 Double Hulls and several tickers. Check it out if you enjoy.
Take care and stay healthy yall.
AAPL - Apple Bury vs. Buffet (Warrens largest Holding)iMob losing its collective hive mind at present...
No iCar, Factories in China and India Shut-In.
Share Buybacks authorized to $90 Billion, the entire
Cash Flow of Apple.
Oh My, - promises in the Dark.
____________________________________________
The chart looks terrible.
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Buffet bag holding.
Bury hunting Cultists.
206K shares Held, $36M Notional (PUT) Value, 17.86% of
Portfolio.
MB takes a swing, why?
Simple, Apple is a mature company that is not innovating,
investing in CAPEX... Supply chains are not going to absolve.
Asymmetric postioning has served him very well.
ARKK ( winner )
TSLA ( loser )
APPL ( winner at present ) @ 24x EPS remains bloated
YOY performance was a warning of 4 to $8 Billion with impacts on
Chinese demand and Foreign Business, with Gross Margin comoressing.
Yeah, looks good for Dr, Bury not so hotso for the BRKA All you can eat.
Apple $120 Target by Sept 2022I am posting a $120 target for Apple based on the price action volume support seen at the $120 levels in convergence with the support and resistance trendlines starting to form in the recent downturn. This downturn can also be confirmed by the near trigger of a death cross which we could see officially turn over with enough bearish volume on the stock today. Apple is the equity that has been a haven for 2021 and will be the one to watch as we teeter on the last levels of support on the SPY and QQQ. Hopefully, I will be looking to add around $120 by September 2022, as indicated by the convergence of my short-term support and resistance trendline. The $120 price target would imply a -16% drop from current levels for 4 months. Since we are seeing an all-time high ATR for Apple at $5.51, we should expect the uptick in volatility to swing into a consolidation phase, thus supporting my thesis of a 4 month slow burn instead of a quick depreciation in price.
These four months should also include further unloading of the fed corporate bond balance sheet and further increases to the fed funds rate, which should place additional pressure on this year's blue-chip & haven mega-cap equities.
The price target for Apple is my first idea post attempt! Hopefully, it helps. Good luck!
Not Financial Advice; please do your research
05/17/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: Bullish
Just watch the video for the main idea. I make sure to go over my main thoughts within the first 3 minutes. Every thing else is just checking on the normal tickers.
Some of the tickers:
Doge, ADA, BTC, ETH, CVNA, APPL, SPY, AMZN, MARPS, VIX, FL, TWTR, UPST, and BILL.
Nothing has really changed from yesterday. I am looking for that STARTING candle of appl above or around $148. Still expecting it to top around $162.5 in early to mid June, distribute, then back down to new lows under 140.
05/16/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: High Bullish Potential
I am more bullish than bearish currently.
I would like to see a start in APPL above 148.75. I think that can take us to 162 at the top. I think if Appl breaks though, we could see others like Carvana and Bill go up 30% to their respective supports.
I outline more of the specifics in the video.
I hope you all are doing well.
Apple Inc - Time to Close Long Positions?Is it time for the giant Apple to finish its exponential growth cycle and move to a lengthy correction period?
Fundamentally: all the indicators are strong but the risk of recession may be one of the factors for the company to reflect this in the forecast so all eyes on the upcoming report
Technically:
Following the Ascending Triangle that lasted for over a year the price is moving very choppy which suggests that Ending Diagonal is developing
The lower timeframe suggests that possibly there is one last upward move left to update the high which will complete the Diagonal
What's next - given that the last correction was nearly 400 days, the next one will be even longer. The shape and depth will be clear during the development but it's likely for the price to test levels of $134 (0.382x Fibonacci retracement) or even $118 which is 0.5x.
Let's wait for the report and it will be more clear if the proposed scenario is plausible.
Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
Apple falling far from the tree? Apple - Short Term - We look to Sell at 154.48 (stop at 160.14)
We look to sell rallies. Posted a Double Top formation. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
Our profit targets will be 138.36 and 130.14
Resistance: 155.00 / 170.00 / 182.00
Support: 140.00 / 130.00 / 120.00
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Expected Key Points Apple 12 May 2022Apple 12 May 2022
The current implied volatility is at 42.55%/year
So that converted into daily is 2.68%
The close of yesterday was 146.5
So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed within
TOP 150.5
BOT 142.5
with a probability chance of 79% based on the last 3007 candles
From fundamental point, today we have
PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment
At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
Expected Key Points Apple 11 May 2022Apple 11 May 2022
The current implied volatility is at 40.54%/year
So that converted into daily is 2.55%
The yesterday close price was on 154.5
So based on that our
TOP 158,5
BOT 150,5
This channel has a 79% change to sustain based on the last 3006 candles
At the same time with 89% we can affirm that the price is going to be above
TOP 154.9
BOT 154.1
From fundamental point, today we have CPI release and this marks a huge volatility moment
From volume point, current POC is around 154.37
We can expect now with close to 70% that the market is going to end up between
TOP 154.9 - 158.5
BOT 150.5 - 154.1
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May Apple Iron CondorApple
9 - 13 May
The weekly VXAPL-> Volatility Index for APPLE
Implied = 39.02
In this we have to standard it for weekly session
39.02 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.41%
My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week
E Volatility = 39.39 / sqrt(52) = 5.46%
With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 86.6% chance that the market
stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol
So for next week this range for us is going to be
TOP - 166
BOT - 149
Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading:
165Call Sell - 167.5Call Buy
149Put sell - 147 Put buy
This is giving us at the current moment a 0.26 expectancy
So taking into account from 621weekly candles, that 82% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel,
Our profit margin would be 82% * 0.26 - 18%*1 = 4.2ROI after 100 trades
Oooh no AAPL is also biting the bullet
NASDAQ:AAPL
Looks like Apple can't keep up the fight and it's about to take a dive as well.
News:
Apple doesn't seem to be able to take a break from lawsuits. But realistically, the lawsuits have not really impacted the price. So, I'm not too concerned with the EU lawsuit.
Charts:
EMA ( Exponential Moving Average ): Price action just finally joined the rest of the stock market below the 200 EMA (discount buying opportunity) Price is also below 20/50/100/200 EMA and are all pointing downwards! And yes, the death cross occured on April 28th; last week. How long would the 20 EMA stay below the 100 EMA? We are yet to find out.
TTM Squeeze: Squeezing to the bottom and to make matters worse, the price action is breaking a major support line (super trendline; at the bottom of the Rising Wedge pattern).
Fib Levels: If the price crosses below .618, then there is a huge possibility that we will see the price at the 1 fib ($144).
Candle Stick: A 3 black crow in the making; very bearish.
RSI: At 37, and slow stochastic pointing down, there is a probability that it would touch 30 which also mean that the sell momentum is still hot! But it is not yet over sold. I would would not be selling my shares because of the upcoming Dividends. I got in this for the faucet as well.
Pattern: The current candle closes green, it would be a double bottom but I'm not sure that will happen. Longterm, we have a Rising Wedge but in the short-tem it's a descending triangle? I don't know mann... Apple is putting up a good fight.
History: Forget it, best stock in the market!