(AAPL) Apple Analysis I'm basing this analysis on the tools listed below in addition to my own observation of APPLs reaction to key FED data and market health indicator data. Apple has surpassed the bearish trend line channel shown in black, without fail the stock returned to the bottom of the channel fast and hard when this occurs. I believe we are currently in a technical recession and that hasn't been fully priced in because the FED and the White House don't want to put that idea officially in the market for their own best interest... if you were President would you want to be known for having a recession during your time in office... with re-elections coming up... I think not. There is a reason some of the biggest companies have opted for splits during this time, it's because they see the writing on the wall and much harder times coming 2022 - 2023 but I digress, check the chart and good trading.
-The red vertical lines indicate a day of important market moving data
-The yellow adjacent squares represent a mirroring overall pattern noticed between the two sections after crossing the above mentioned red data lines
-The yellow line running parallel is the 200 EMA
-The green dots are key areas that seem to occur just before and after key (-/+) data releases
-The green line is the projected path of next weeks
-The Black lines are the high & low trajectory channel of the bearish trend since the stock peaked in December 21'
$129 Retest before earnings
Tools
200 EMA, Swing High & Low Candles, and Trendlines W/ Breaks
APPL
Apple downside indicatorsThanks for viewing,
Why would anyone be bearish on a stock that has gone up over 200% in the past 18 months? I'm just watching the chart.
If you look at the chart you see some concerning trends, mainly;
- Volume dropping off since March 2020 as the price increases meant the stock was less and less of a bargain.
- Some rather strong RSI bearish divergence - where every higher price highs are shown as lower highs on the RSI - which is at the least a sign of slowing momentum.
- Dividend return having significantly weakened in 2021.
- Higher inflation, which tends to drive investors to seek higher dividends or safe havens (since the US10 year isn't a safe haven anymore with an annual return of 1.44%. Given the CPI for October 2021 sits at 6.2%, that yields a *negative* 4.76% annual return that counts out treasuries as a safe haven). Apple has scope to raise its dividend as it currently only pays out around 25% of net profit as dividends - but right now the dividend is rather negative and should the price rises stall I would imagine we could start to see some strong selling pressure as investors see their unrealized gains melt away or leveraged traders / investors turn negative.
When I am watching the RSI I watch for 3 peaks of lower highs that then pushes the RSI below the 70 level. Once that happens, prices tend to weaken and I would expect an RSI of sub 40 to be next for a significant retracement. I don't have a target yet but After its 2000 peak it retraced 80%+ and ~60% during the 2008-9 financial crisis, so the downside is clearly there for anyone to see. Bearish RSI divergence was also evident in 1999-2000 and 2007-8.
I tend to agree with Michael Burry's general thesis that stocks that have priced in significant future growth will be hardest hit during periods of inflation.
Anyway, just putting it out there. I am not an investor and not shorting.
Look after those funds everyone
BTC Comprehensive UpdateYes, this is a 20 minute video. But I speak quickly. This Idea is meant to be watched as a video. If you do not watch the video and only read below, you will not get much from this idea or may get the wrong idea.
Overall I have been short (Not in market) since the reversal in the stock market on April 5th and 6th. I go over all this in the video and I talk fast. So there is a lot of information to see.
I don't want to put investment strategy short, because I don't really want to say that where the price currently is, is a good spot to short. It seems odd to too heavily before any non crypto markets are open, but after they closed for the weekend. Considering the market was pretty obviously bear on Thursday and Friday.
Possible targets if we drop below 28k and have some bad price action are then to around 26.9k and most likely between 22.35k and 23.3k.
For me to feel bullish on BTC I would have to see several things. It is too complicated to explain without showing the chart, but I mention it in the video.
It is worth the watch. I reference the most important things that I look at to determine bitcoin price movement.
Based on the Schiff pitchfork, It looks like the lack of movement in BTC is actually distribution and that we have failed to hold the key channel (Jun 1st). We also had a hard rejection of the top of the current channel on Jun 6th.
If you have any questions feel free to leave them below.
Apple needs more juiceApple
Short Term - We look to Sell at 154.48 (stop at 160.14)
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 155.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. Posted a Double Top formation. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
Our profit targets will be 137.56 and 130.14
Resistance: 155.00 / 171.00 / 182.00
Support: 137.00 / 123.00 / 118.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
APPL Detecting Successful Trades Without Needing a SubscriptionI see a successful trade as a trade either makes money or mitigates losses and further loses. An example of this is the trade I made on may 17th and exited 5 minutes into the day of May 18th. The price dropped 5% further.
Long story short, I have thought APPL looked like crap since April 7th, when both Hull averages on the day and 4HR timeframe lined up in a bad way just days after APPL was set up in a bullish formation (with my indicators). To me, that kind of movement is a standard signal for significant downwards movement.
Possible downwards targets where I look for action. Key mention. When looking for a buy I expect nothing to bounce 100% anywhere. I almost ALWAYS look at price action at these areas. I never expect a bounce or drop for sure just because a line resides there.
Downwards targets:
118-122
79-88
I list the possible upwards targets in the video, but if somehow APPL does go up, it most likely has a lot of bumps on the way. Saying definitive upwards targets seems disingenuous.
The 2 Indicators I use are listed in the first 30 seconds of the video. By using only 2 indicators, this means that anyone can use this strategy to analyze on TV without needing to buy a subscription. I still recommend the subscription for analyzing, because I enjoy double charts.
DoubleHull by KivancOzbilgic (375 and 500 length Hull moving averages)
SMMA (200 length Smoothed moving average) Not the SMA! (Simple moving average)
If you'd like, you can check my Related Idea "Market Update: Being right is boring" below. I mention APPL at the 2 Minute mark.
I also added the Related Idea "How I Analyze the Market in 20 minutes." which gives a more in depth look with more examples of how I analyze the overall market using the 500/375 Double Hulls and several tickers. Check it out if you enjoy.
Take care and stay healthy yall.
AAPL - Apple Bury vs. Buffet (Warrens largest Holding)iMob losing its collective hive mind at present...
No iCar, Factories in China and India Shut-In.
Share Buybacks authorized to $90 Billion, the entire
Cash Flow of Apple.
Oh My, - promises in the Dark.
____________________________________________
The chart looks terrible.
____________________________________________
Buffet bag holding.
Bury hunting Cultists.
206K shares Held, $36M Notional (PUT) Value, 17.86% of
Portfolio.
MB takes a swing, why?
Simple, Apple is a mature company that is not innovating,
investing in CAPEX... Supply chains are not going to absolve.
Asymmetric postioning has served him very well.
ARKK ( winner )
TSLA ( loser )
APPL ( winner at present ) @ 24x EPS remains bloated
YOY performance was a warning of 4 to $8 Billion with impacts on
Chinese demand and Foreign Business, with Gross Margin comoressing.
Yeah, looks good for Dr, Bury not so hotso for the BRKA All you can eat.
Apple $120 Target by Sept 2022I am posting a $120 target for Apple based on the price action volume support seen at the $120 levels in convergence with the support and resistance trendlines starting to form in the recent downturn. This downturn can also be confirmed by the near trigger of a death cross which we could see officially turn over with enough bearish volume on the stock today. Apple is the equity that has been a haven for 2021 and will be the one to watch as we teeter on the last levels of support on the SPY and QQQ. Hopefully, I will be looking to add around $120 by September 2022, as indicated by the convergence of my short-term support and resistance trendline. The $120 price target would imply a -16% drop from current levels for 4 months. Since we are seeing an all-time high ATR for Apple at $5.51, we should expect the uptick in volatility to swing into a consolidation phase, thus supporting my thesis of a 4 month slow burn instead of a quick depreciation in price.
These four months should also include further unloading of the fed corporate bond balance sheet and further increases to the fed funds rate, which should place additional pressure on this year's blue-chip & haven mega-cap equities.
The price target for Apple is my first idea post attempt! Hopefully, it helps. Good luck!
Not Financial Advice; please do your research
05/17/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: Bullish
Just watch the video for the main idea. I make sure to go over my main thoughts within the first 3 minutes. Every thing else is just checking on the normal tickers.
Some of the tickers:
Doge, ADA, BTC, ETH, CVNA, APPL, SPY, AMZN, MARPS, VIX, FL, TWTR, UPST, and BILL.
Nothing has really changed from yesterday. I am looking for that STARTING candle of appl above or around $148. Still expecting it to top around $162.5 in early to mid June, distribute, then back down to new lows under 140.
05/16/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: High Bullish Potential
I am more bullish than bearish currently.
I would like to see a start in APPL above 148.75. I think that can take us to 162 at the top. I think if Appl breaks though, we could see others like Carvana and Bill go up 30% to their respective supports.
I outline more of the specifics in the video.
I hope you all are doing well.
Apple Inc - Time to Close Long Positions?Is it time for the giant Apple to finish its exponential growth cycle and move to a lengthy correction period?
Fundamentally: all the indicators are strong but the risk of recession may be one of the factors for the company to reflect this in the forecast so all eyes on the upcoming report
Technically:
Following the Ascending Triangle that lasted for over a year the price is moving very choppy which suggests that Ending Diagonal is developing
The lower timeframe suggests that possibly there is one last upward move left to update the high which will complete the Diagonal
What's next - given that the last correction was nearly 400 days, the next one will be even longer. The shape and depth will be clear during the development but it's likely for the price to test levels of $134 (0.382x Fibonacci retracement) or even $118 which is 0.5x.
Let's wait for the report and it will be more clear if the proposed scenario is plausible.
Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
Apple falling far from the tree? Apple - Short Term - We look to Sell at 154.48 (stop at 160.14)
We look to sell rallies. Posted a Double Top formation. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
Our profit targets will be 138.36 and 130.14
Resistance: 155.00 / 170.00 / 182.00
Support: 140.00 / 130.00 / 120.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.