APPLE formed 1st 1D Golden Cross in 15 months! Attention needed.It wasn't long ago when we called for a buy on Apple's (AAPL) absolute technical bottom (April 25 and May 02, see charts below respectively):
Needless to say that the 198.00 Target has been smashed. As the price reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 20-month (blue) Channel Up, the stock turned sideways and has been consolidating for the past 4 sessions.
This is a strong indication of a medium-term Top. If rejected, we expect a Channel Down correction to at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), where we will again buy for the long-term. If broken though, we will buy the first 1D candle close above the (blue) Channel Up and target $250.00.
The reason for this bullish expectation is that Apple just formed the first 1D Golden Cross in 15 months (since March 22 2023). Last time it did, the price had already initiated the new Bullish Leg (in the form of a blue dotted Channel Up). It only started the medium-term correction of July 2023, when it closed a full candle below the 4H MA50 (thin red trend-line).
At the same time, the 1W RSI had to hit the 79.00 overbought level. As a result, if you do turn bullish upon a 1D candle breaking above the (blue) Channel Up, consider booking the profit earlier if 4H MA50 breaks or the 1W RSI gets rejected on its 79.00 Resistance (unless your portfolio can support the correction).
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Apple-signals
Comprehensive Analysis: Long-Term Position in Apple (Idea 1)After conducting an exhaustive examination of Apple Inc.'s fundamentals, including a meticulous review of its Annual Report, earnings calls, and other pertinent documents, I have arrived at a well-informed conclusion regarding the company's prospects. Subsequently, I have strategically chosen to position myself in this market leader.
Apple's substantial Market Capitalization underscores its prominence in the global market. By amalgamating both Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis, this trade idea is meticulously crafted to capitalize on the inherent strengths of Apple Inc. This marks the inception of a two-part analysis, with the first segment focusing on establishing a long-term position.
The entry point for this trade is set at 164.31, a level meticulously chosen based on a synthesis of technical indicators. Unlike conventional trading strategies, this approach foregoes a Stop Loss (SL) as the overarching vision is geared towards the long-term horizon, mitigating short-term fluctuations and focusing on the company's enduring value.
While the Take Profit (TP) level remains subjective, the overarching strategy suggests holding the position for an extended period, allowing ample time for the investment thesis to materialize. Additionally, this entry and exit strategy provides flexibility for short-term trading opportunities, accommodating varying risk appetites and trading styles.
This comprehensive analysis underscores a strategic long-term perspective on Apple Inc., leveraging both fundamental strength and technical insights to navigate the dynamic landscape of the financial markets.
When you want to trade on Apple (based on this idea) than you need to set a SL (Stop loss), at 160.93$ (when you want a short trade (short timeframe) ) or 155.37$.
When you are in loss you should also do DCA.
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APPLE Last chance to buy before $215.We are updating our Apple (AAPL) outlook on our last analysis a month ago (January 04 2024, see chart below) as the price remains under Lower Highs:
The dominant long-term pattern remains a Rising Wedge with the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) providing a strong rebound on February 02, which on the other hand got rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This opens up a short-term window, one final opportunity to buy lower, even below the 1W MA50 where the majority of short-term buyers will be out due to fear of the Rising Wedge bearish break-out.
The previous 2 Channel Down patterns made the final Lower Low on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. That is a little above 175.00. If the price hits it and at the same time the 1D RSI bounces on its Support Zone, it will most likely be the final buy opportunity. Our medium-term target is intact at the top of the Higher Highs trend-line at $215.00.
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APPLE eyeing the 1W MA50 support.Apple (AAPL) hit yesterday the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 06, extending the rejection on the Resistance 1 level. A rejection that is in perfect symmetry with the February 03 rejection that also caused a pull-back.
The last call we made on Apple (see chart below) was on November 12 actually signaling a buy after the Falling Wedge break-out, targeting 195.00:
The fundamentals this time are far from ideal, so a greater correction seeks the next technical Support level. That is the 1W MA5 (red trend-line), which is currently sitting at the bottom (Higher Lows trendline) of the multi-month Rising Wedge pattern, and was the level that initiated the strong rally on the October 26 bottom.
As a result we are looking for a downside range within 177.00 - 175.00 and then rebound with a $215.00 target.
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APPLE Technical top at $210.Apple (AAPL) hit on Friday our $195.00 short-term target which we called on our latest November 12 analysis (see chart below):
The rally seems far from over as the recent pull-back turned out to be only a Bull Flag pattern, which typically prompts to a continuation of the trend. Being within a long-term Rising Wedge pattern, this pull-back resembles, even on 1D RSI terms, that of March 02, only on weaker strength (reasonably as the sequences get narrower towards the end of the pattern).
That first rally of the Wedged peaked just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. The current sequence's 1.382 Fib is at $210.00, which falls perfectly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Rising Wedge, and that is our medium-term target.
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APPLE Last BUY opportunity before a new 18 month expansion.Last time we looked into Apple (AAPL), it was still trading within the 2023 Channel Up (see chart below) and gave us an excellent technical pull-back buy opportunity:
This time the stock is after a 3-month pull-back that is testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 13. On the wider picture of Apple in the last 10 years (1W time-frame), such pull-backs have been nothing more that consolidation phases before the next Expansion (usually 18 month - green arrows) that leads to the eventual peak and a new yearly correction (red arrows).
Those consolidation phases find Support on the 1W MA50 (even the COVID crash broke it just marginally), unlike the yearly corrections which find on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). What's astounding is the frequency of the consolidation pull-backs, which can be very effectively displayed with the use of the Sine Waves. As you can see on our chart, in the last 10 years, all pull-backs to the 1W MA50 after a 1W MA200 rebound, are located at the bottom of the Waves.
This indicates that most likely the current one is over and investors are expected to 'ride' the new 18-month Expansion wave to the new All Time High.
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APPLE Inverse Head and Shoulders give a new All Time HighApple Inc. (AAPL) has just completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with its Head being the January 03 market Bottom. The Bear Cycle isn't technically over for Apple as the Channel Down that started back on the October 04 2021 Low hasn't yet been broken. In fact since the last two Lower Highs sequences have been +31.11% and +36.78%, the current rally is limited within the red Triangle Zone. As a result we have a short-term target at $165.00.
With the Inverse Head and Shoulders though technically aiming much higher, supported also by a 1W MACD Bullish Cross, if Apple closes a 1W candle above the Channel Down, we will re-buy and target $190.00 on the long-term, which is just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level.
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AAPLE -50% of June rally lost. Will it recover on the 2019 fractApple (AAPL) has fallen more than -17% from the mid-August High, losing more than half of the gains made on the June 16 rally. Right now it is exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level on that High-Low sequence and on top of that a Golden Cross pattern is emerging (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)).
We have explicitly outlined this potential fall to the 0.5 Fib if the price got rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line from the All Time High, on our August 17 idea:
As you see the timing couldn't be better as those where the days that the top was formed and the price got rejected. The last time we saw a similar pattern was on the June 03 2019 test of the 0.5 Fib. That was also caused by a rejection near the 2018 Lower Highs but the Golden Cross was formed a little earlier. After a marginal breach of the 0.5 Fib (such as the one we had yesterday), Apple resumed the uptrend and the recovery path.
See also the similarities on the RSI (1W time-frame), though this time it got rejected slightly below the Resistance level it did back in May 2019. This may possibly mean that we can see a rebound slightly higher than the symmetrical Support level. Another closing below it though can initiate an aggressive sell-off towards June's lows. In our view it is critical to see the Golden Cross forming, which should encourage buyers to accumulate.
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AAPLE holding the 1D MA50, targeting 158 short-term.Apple (AAPL) had a very strong 1D green candle yesterday, rebounding off the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the Resistance since April 21, turning it into the Support. The break-out took place after the RSI on the 1W time-frame broke above its MA line on the widest margin since January 04. With the 1W MACD about to make the first Bullish Cross since November 18 2021, this could be the long-term buy signal that the market has been waiting for, for a sustainable recovery.
The technical short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at around 158.00. The Fibonacci retracement levels can provide the next targets and pull-back/ buy levels. Overall the stock has the potential to reach its All Time High level before the end of the year.
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APPLE can hit $185.00 in 3 months. 1D MA200 in focus.I haven't made an analysis publicly on Apple since my September 14 2021 idea:
It was when I first made public of the long-term Channel Up it was trading in and warned about a correction towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the stocks major Support since the COVID crash of March 2020. Eventually the pattern proved to be a success, as the price corrected and then upon testing the 1D CCI Support Zone, it rebounded above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension target.
Right now AAPL has been correcting since January 04 High. On February 24 it almost hit the 1D MA200 again as well as the CCI Buy level, but the rebound was rejected near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and now is again near the MA200. We can see even in corrections, that the CCI Buy Zone can give short-term buy entries. The key here is for the price to break above the 1D MA50, as in previous corrections that was the start of the new uptrend. The 1D MA50/ MA100 (green trend-line) bearish cross, hasn't affected the uptrend's chances before, in fact when it happened the price was already in rise mode.
It appears that the next 1D MA200 contact would be the next long-term Buy Signal for Apple, unless of course the 1D MA50 breaks first. Either way, the CCI has already give a Buy Signal, and for more than 1.5 year, it has been 100% accurate. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension based on the last low is just over $185.00 and that is our long-term target on AAPL.
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APPLE Further correction aheadPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and reverse to a buy either upon contact (buy signal last time) or when the CCI hits its Buy Zone (confirmed 3 times since November 2020).
Target: the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
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