"Apple Inc. (AAPL) Potential Upside "Apple Inc. (AAPL) Potential Upside: A Fundamental Analysis"
I believe Apple (AAPL) presents a promising opportunity with potential benefits and risks.
**Trade Idea:**
- **Entry:** Current market price
- **Stop Loss:** $172.08
- **Target:** $190/$200
**Fundamental Benefits:**
1. Strong financials and consistent revenue growth.
2. Robust product portfolio with a loyal customer base.
3. Potential for positive developments in upcoming product releases or partnerships.
**Fundamental Risks:**
1. Market volatility and macroeconomic factors may impact stock performance.
2. Dependency on a few key products, making the company vulnerable to market shifts.
3. Regulatory challenges in the tech industry could pose threats.
**Disclaimer:** Always conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. This idea is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Apple
$AAPL timber*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
!! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !!
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Tesla - Remember, The Ponzi Always ContinuesSo, you've realized that Teslas aren't particularly great cars, EVs becoming a worldwide trend is a hoax, and that Elon Musk isn't any kind of very saintly very MAGA saviour of humanity during the end times.
And now that price is down a lot, we want to victory lap and short, because the public relations firms that are running the campaign needed to produce liquidity for banks and big money funds to buy told you to.
The problem with the short Tesla thesis right now is that Musk pledged a significant volume of his shares as collateral to get big money to finance his acquisition of Tweeter, (now known as Xeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeter), which by some accounts is worth some painful $15 billion compared to the $45 billion he (they) paid for it.
And so what this means is that there's been significant incentive to sell in the $250 range and buy back lower as a form of risk hedging, with the ultimate purpose of selling higher.
All for the sake of just making all the money without losing any of the money when Xeeeeeeter inevitably goes public in the future because Musk made it the manifest Western form of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit apparatus, WeChat, because Shanghai Gigafactory bro just loves the way the Party does things.
But the risk for bulls, and the economic system alike, is that "the best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry," which is to say that when it comes to gambling on Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party, a fool is a fool.
One should oppose the CCP because it's responsible for the 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, and the campaign of live organ harvesting genocide that came with it.
Although that campaign was launched, and continued, at the hands of former Chairman Jiang Zemin, and Jiang is dead now, Xi is still the head of the Party, and the first thing you do when slaying a red dragon is sever its head.
Actually, the first thing you do when slaying a red dragon is sever its tail. Former Premier Li Keqiang, who was Xi's right hand man for a lot of years, recently died "of a heart attack," which is likely code for "was knocked down by Wuhan Pneumonia."
If the pandemic in Mainland China is killing the Xi Faction, the world has big time problems.
And it seems to me the recent conflict in Israel and the war that's being launched into Syria and Iran is probably to create a gateway to Mainland China, since Iran connects to Pakistan and Afghanistan, which are already U.S. controlled.
Everyone wants control of China and its 5,000 year history when the CCP finally falls.
So back to Tesla.
The logic is fairly simple.
Because 2023 started uppy, we expect 2023 to finish uppy. We do not expect things that start the beginning of the year on a moon mission to correct into the end of the year, because generally speaking the scam isn't played like that.
Which means that all dips are a dip to buy, and especially when we're finally printing prices under "$200," it's a dip to buy.
But the MMs are the most annoying of the most annoying people and like to run things to lows that are less comfortable. Shipping under $180 from $197 is a further loss of another 10%+, which means options expire worthless/devalue effectively, and everyone is a winner, winner, chicken dinner, except for you, who gets to finance happy hour, strippers, and cocaine at 1:31 p.m. on Halloween Tuesday.
Either way, it's worth expecting the May pivot to hold as a low, a higher low to form, and then we really do see the $320 parade into the end of 2023.
Ho, ho, ho, Happy Santa Rally.
Remember, the Ponzi always continues. By the time the ponzi stops continuing, all the bears will have long since been liquidated. The disaster sequence is when they take down bulltards who buy the dip, buy the dip, and buy the dip as it races towards zero.
And Tesla doesn't have that MULN-style landslide apocalypse pattern. That only happens when big bags are empty and nobody ever buys something again.
So all the price action is just shareholder printer selling.
Yet.
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?In my preceeding posts, I'm actually "bullish" on equities in the fourth quarter.
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?
And while I think this price action, coming on the back of news that the US Treasury will "only" issue $10 billion more worth of bonds this quarter (compared to like $160 billion last quarter), indicates that not only are we bullish, but going to take out the all time highs before year end...
I have reservations on this SPECIFIC price action being "The Bottom".
Before we go further, I will use the early space for those with low attention spans to warn you about the situation in Mainland China.
The Chinese Communist Party is the scourge of humanity that seeks to use all beings to destroy all beings. Xi Jinping is its head, and the Party will fall. When you kill a dragon, you kill it by chopping of its head.
But before you chop off its head, you often cripple it by chopping its tail. Former Xi Premier and right hand man Li Keqiang was killed by "a heart attack" recently, which is almost certainly code for the "Wuhan Pneumonia Pandemic."
The Party's 24-year persecution, and organ harvesting genocide, against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners is a sin that 100.00% guarantees the Party's destruction.
And that means it guarantees Xi's destruction, so long as he doesn't drop the CCP Gorbachev-style in time.
It does not look like Xi is that intelligent of a man to do that.
And so whatever bullish nonsense is arranged by Wall Street, who frequently sleeps with and transfuses blood to the Jiang Faction of the CCP, who are the architects of Falun Gong's persecution and the real evil force behind the Party and "China," to make sure that Communism globally can stay alive until the ruthless end, is subject to abject, merciless, brutal, and sudden truncation.
Meaning any rally can be annihilated by international events that are beyond the control of the so-called "controllers" at any time, for we fundamentally exist in a Cosmos that is inherently Divine.
There's some flaws on the SPY ETF, which is meaningful, because as I say many times, life revolves around banks and funds selling options and making sure they expire worthless.
When we look at the monthly:
October took out the June low, as I predicted earlier, but came up like a dollar shy of entering into the April wick.
Moreover, when we look at the weekly:
Which shows us more clearly the April-May double bottom is just 1%~ lower than the October low, and the $400 psych level is just 2% lower.
With this kind of a squeeze happening only 3 trading days into November's candle, and failing to take the high, we're primed to set up for an "outside bar" November that takes out BOTH the low AND the high of October.
But what this would mean is we're about to dump below the October low, where the real buying opportunity is.
But two problems with the theory are:
1) There's no news drivers next week except for Jerome Powell talking on Thursday.
2) The bull thesis has to complete by December 31 and we're running out of time
But that being said, when we had the October bottom last year, we had a 3-day 6% rally to open October before it turned around and took out the low and then rallied.
And when we had the COVID bottom because the Fed slashed rates to zero and started buying equities, the market had a 10% rally over the course of a few weeks and gave almost all of it back before setting the biggest highs of all time.
So this kind of manipulative behaviour is consistent with the market makers.
How to trade it? Well, if it doesn't go down next week then just blindly long anywhere and so long as you aren't buying calls with 0 or 3 days to expiry, you should be okay.
If it does go down, buy near the October low and under the October low.
The problem is no short setup has manifested as of Friday close, and so we can only sit on the sidelines and look for longs. Whoever was bigly long from Monday or last week should really have taken significant money off the table, cashing in and realizing those gains, this afternoon.
Don't forget the Dollar Index stopped just short of $108 and that's a big sign of coming manipulation and that we're too early.
This is how algorithms are programmed.
Good luck.
6% Surge For Apple Following Positive Earnings!Apple Inc. has managed to carve out a silver lining in its latest financial performance, with iPhone sales witnessing a 2.8% increase despite a general downturn in hardware sales. This growth stands in stark contrast to the significant declines in Mac and iPad sales, with Mac sales plummeting by nearly 34% over the year, highlighting the fierce competition and shifting consumer preferences in the tech industry.
On the financial front, Apple's revenue dipped slightly to $89.50 billion, a 1% decrease. However, the company's net income tells a more positive story, surging by 11% to $22.96 billion. The Q4 earnings report brought more good news, with earnings per share reaching $1.46, comfortably beating the $1.31 estimate and fueling a 1% gap up in stock price at market open, followed by a 2% rise at close.
Despite a tumultuous journey with a 16% drop from a July peak of $198, Apple's stock has rallied 36% over the year. The stock found support at the weekly 50 simple moving average in October and has since rebounded with a 4% rise in November, now 6% above the October low. Looking ahead, the stock faces a critical test at the $182 resistance level, which if breached, could set the stage for a new all-time high.
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#AAPL: Possible continued uptrend!Dear Traders,
Apple's stock prices are undervalued while we still think company is in well positioned to continue the bullish trend in upcoming months. While also looking at the current news event the new line up for the new iPhone also suggest that demand of apple products has increased.
20% upside in APPLEThe stock set into an impulse in Jan 2023 and completed the first wave up by Feb 2023 and corrected thereafter till the first week of march.
The wave 3 in the stock began in march 2023 and went on all the way till July and there after the stock was in complex wave 4 correction until last week.
The stock is now coming out of the 4th wave correction and could give a great "Santa Rally" beginning in November and extending till Christmas Day(or beyond).
The target for the 5th wave is projected around 205-210 zone.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Stock Assessment Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 1.7% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this timeframe.
Prior to a company's earnings release, it is of utmost importance to factor in any revisions made to the earnings projections. These revisions serve as a critical gauge for predicting potential investor behaviors with respect to the stock. Empirical studies consistently reveal a strong link between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.
While it's common for investors to rely on consensus earnings and revenue estimates for assessing how the business may have performed during the quarter, exploring analysts' forecasts for key metrics can yield valuable insights.
Given this perspective, it's time to examine the average forecasts of specific Apple metrics that are routinely monitored and predicted by Wall Street analysts.
The average prediction of analysts places 'Revenue- Wearables, Home and Accessories' at $9.33 billion. The estimate suggests a change of -3.3% year over year.
The consensus among analysts is that 'Revenue- iPhone' will reach $44.17 billion. The estimate points to a change of +3.6% from the year-ago quarter.
Analysts expect 'Net Sales- Services' to come in at $21.35 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +11.3% from the prior-year quarter.
Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Revenue- Mac' should arrive at $8.29 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -28%.
The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales- Products' stands at $67.64 billion. The estimate points to a change of -4.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Analysts predict that the 'Revenue- iPad' will reach $5.86 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -18.4%.
According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Geographic Revenue- Greater China' should come in at $17.34 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +12.1% from the prior-year quarter.
The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Geographic Revenue- Europe' of $22.22 billion. The estimate points to a change of -2.5% from the year-ago quarter.
It is projected by analysts that the 'Geographic Revenue- Rest of Asia Pacific' will reach $6.04 billion. The estimate suggests a change of -5.2% year over year.
Analysts forecast 'Geographic Revenue- Japan' to reach $5.52 billion. The estimate points to a change of -3.1% from the year-ago quarter.
Analysts' assessment points toward 'Geographic Revenue- Americas' reaching $38.04 billion. The estimate suggests a change of -4.4% year over year.
SP500 - Support and Resistance ZonesI have mentioned these two circled levels earlier and we have now reached the second target (Purple Circle). This is a perfect bounce area for SP500 and may be the bottom of this bear trend we have been in the last months.
We might go down and test the support below but I dont think so. In my chart I posted earlier I mentioned that I thought we would consolidate around the yellow mark before testing ATH. That idea was false and we broke down to this purple area instead. The market is at extreme fear levels and the media very negative.
I believe we will end the year quite positive and start the new uptrend towards ATH around these levels.
Take care.
Long-Term Investing in AppleWarren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
The good news is that Apple's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its EBIT growth rate. Zooming out, Apple seems to use debt quite reasonably; and that gets the nod from us. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start.
Price Momentum
AAPL is trading in the middle of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors are still evaluating the share price, but the stock still appears to have some downward momentum. This is a negative sign for the stock's future value.
APPLE Hit the MA50 (1w). Will it hold?Apple hit the MA50 (1w), the strongest long term Support, for the first time in more than 7 months.
The pattern is a Falling Wedge and last time such formation tested the MA50 (1w) from above was on March 14th 2022, and the level held and rose over the 0.786 Fibonacci.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 191.00 (Fibonacci 0.786 like the 2022 fractal).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1w) is also on the same level as March 2022. An additional bullish signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter RodeoWhether you want to look at these markets like an American football game or the National Finals Rodeo/Calgary Stampede bull riding, this final quarter of the year is set up to be quite the fireworks show.
The new JP Morgan fund options collar is illustrated on the chart, but let's put it into text:
JPM is the seller of 41,000 calls with a strike of 4,515
JPM is the buyer of 41,000 puts with a strike of 4,055
JPM is the seller of 41,000 puts with a strike of 3,420
Expiry is December 29, 2023.
So if you believe that JP Morgan, the pinnacle systemically important bank in the United States, is the market maker, the crude logic is that the bank is incentivized to:
1. Keep price away from 4,515
2. Drive price towards/under 4,055
3. Keep price away from 3,420
Now, this is cool, but last quarter was an identical setup at similar strikes, and JP Morgan paid the calls it sold at 4,600~ and its own puts at 4,200 expired worthless.
A collar from a big fund is just a position and you should always remember the banks have the money to hedge, and hedge, and overhedge.
And their overhedges, when combining with the psychological effect on both retail and fund-level market participants, can produce greater profits than the simple cashing in of their ostensible public positions.
The problem for SPX and equities bulls right now is that if a new all time high was to be set, we should have bounced to start October. The meaning of this is that filling in the range of the giant June uppy candle is actually bearish.
Because it's fundamentally bearish, we have no reason to believe that downside pivots are not the target. Ergo, we have no reason to justify long trades as more than a single-or-intraday scalp until a significant low is taken.
And that low should involve the May 4,062.25 target.
A raid below that, a consolidation above 4,000, a manipulation raid slightly under 4,000 to eat stops, and then a rip back to take out "resistance" at the 4,634 double top before the end of the year AND possible run the all time high, is absolutely the trade thesis.
A raid on 4,062 happens to put JPM's long puts directly in the money and they'll be free to exit with profit.
Then, the bank can pay or mitigate the buyers of its 4,515 calls before expiry, all while making bears hate their life.
If this all plays out as anticipated, 2024 will be significantly dark clouds. Always keep in mind that 2023 opened in a straight line uppy, and year candles VERY rarely repeat their patterns twice.
What is "the bear thesis" really predicated on? It's not the Federal Reserve or such and such recession.
It's the situation in Mainland China. There's a total worldwide media blackout on what's going on inside China.
But how much longer can the Chinese Communist Party and the boundless and eternal sins of organ harvesting Falun Dafa's 100 million students at the hands of Jiang Zemin since July 20, 1999 continue forward?
The Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has claimed millions and millions of lives inside the Mainland, and that's before the catastrophes from the Party's corrupt officials itself, and all the flooding and economic damage.
In short, the CCP will soon fall before our very eyes, and everything will change.
2024 Presidential Election theatre in the United States won't really matter.
If you want to have a bright future and happiness, you need to turn off the television, turn off the radio, turn off YouTube, get off TikTok, and go outside and be in your community in real life.
You need to cut the brainwashing and start valuing virtue again, start living like humans again, start thinking like a human again.
Heaven is watching to see who can stand against the Red Demon of the Chinese Communist Party's international "United Front" parasite campaigns.
Whoever can't is considered the worst kind of loser.
But for now, fade the so-called "bottom" at 4,250 and strongly consider buying 3,985.
Just make sure you dump it, dump it again, and cash out at 4,700 or 4,800.
The happy days humans dream of not only never existed, but are forever gone. Everything is about to become stringently serious.
Apple: Trend-setting battle 🔥📈📉The bears have once again pushed Apple down to the lower border of the green target zone between $170.89 and $185. We continue to believe that the stock is in an overriding uptrend, but for that to be the case, it now needs to climb higher. In this scenario, the white wave (III) is expected to end well above the resistance at $198.23. However, it is important to note that our alternative now has a relatively high probability of 41%. If the price were to fall below $167.62, the first task would be the grey wave (IV).