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1984 Scramble. up or down? The short-term market is a breakthrough of the previous downward trend. From the position of 1900, it went up to the 1984 line for a month. More often bearish and weak. The market is trending upwards. So now comes the 1984 controversy. Will the later trend continue to go up or down? I personally think that gold will hover around the 1984 line in the short term. However, geopolitics and the US economic situation have formed a certain support below. So in the short term, I personally think that buying will still be the main focus. The detailed trading signals are subject to the actual situation, and I will tell you in the old place.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by magicianjerry
1
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present. You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish. And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top. Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious. The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top. Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly: Only sweep the All Time High? Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did? Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT: In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past. Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice. The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment. The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide". Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time. If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life. Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year). The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire. Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time. Much to do before the call's key points. Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead: SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It? Back to MSFT: This is a very hard setup to trade Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22) Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy But the short may only take us to the $320 range. Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all. Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is. After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH. But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT. Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers. When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by LordWrymouth
1
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching KnivesNetflix is that $200 billion company trading at $441.44 that everyone seem to have forgot about, even though it more than doubled in a year. Personally, I think these streaming services are a colossal waste of your time and money. What you're watching is the intellectual equivalent of a Big Mac or a bag of potato chips, and permeated with the things of socialism and atheism. And Netflix is really quite woke and some of the content is unforgivably degenerate. You shouldn't look at warped mirrors and shouldn't cast your eyes on ugly things, or they'll twist your heart and your soul. When it comes to the markets-at-large, I believe we're definitely going to see a correction, rather than a new all time high, which I detail in the two calls below: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' If there's to be a new all time high, let's wait and see what Q4 has in store for us. There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the markets right now. The War between the Russian Federation and NATO via Ukraine is a big one, and a bigger one is the situation in Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. More or less, I believe the globalists want to topple the Party to have their men from Taiwan go in and take control of China and depose Xi. But I believe Xi is likely to topple the Party himself before that can happen. Big gaps will come that day and things will be very hard because Wall Street won't be in any kind of a risk-on mood. The 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the Shanghai toad faction is something Xi can weaponize to implicate the entire world. Because to do business in Shanghai you've needed the Jiang Faction's approval. To get its approval, you've had to dirty your hands in the persecution and swear vows to the Flag of Blood. And unfortunately, most of the world has wanted what the Party has. Read the story of British billionaire Neil Heywood, who decided to court Jiang's minion Bo Xilai. Bo told Heywood that to prove his loyalty he had to divorce his wife. Heywood refused, and so Bo's wife poisoned him. Heywood died in 2011. Bo Xilai was ruined in Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign in 2013, stripped of all his assets, and sentenced to life in prison in a CCP dungeon. Gambling with the Party is one foot in the grave and the other in prison. Live a virtuous life instead. Moreover, they always say zoom out. Looking at Netflix on the yearly, it's hard to say you're not in the crosshairs of a savage trend reversal. And you can see these daily bars far more clearly on the weekly chart: There might be that fat gap above that you have your eye on, but you're dealing with a very long and very steep ramp in the first place, and this is in a stock which stayed away from a true gap between April and August of '22. Another notable factor is that the FINRA short volume for Netflix, while still notably low, is the highest it's been in three months and posted its first green month since April and only its second of '23. Short volume This is quite notable in light of the fact that June was one of the best months for equities in a long time Netflix doesn't have an ETF, except for a 3x levered ETF on the Mexico exchange. Insignificant except for it fell from 5 pesos to 5 pennies. What's sad is even if it Netflix was to fall 50% in value the thing would still only be worth like 30 cents. % base levered ETFs will kill you. So, here's the call. Netflix printed a proper daily pivot in mid June (you'll have to look yourself because I can't zoom the chart in for the post) and has been flirting inside that range ever since. If she makes a new high I suppose then it's time for more uppy and you can buy calls at the top and feel pretty good. But if she breaks the $420 range the next area to watch is the June low, which Netflix printed on a green candle and on the first day of the month at $393 After that, things might happen and happen fast. If bearish momentum and level breaking manifests, then where I believe it will return to is the $180 to $160 range. For Netflix to have a chance to return above $500, it will have to hold the $162.71 bottom. If you can catch that falling knife you'll feel pretty smart if you can hold the bag for a few months. But if you try to go long before the bottom you'll cut your hands and cut your hands some more.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by LordWrymouth
6
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddonIn reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say. Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped. That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range and on absolutely no news. And yet the SPX has not yet taken its equivalent intermediate term high. The significance of the intermediate term highs that the Nasdaq took and the SPX is probably about to take is that they represent the March of 2022 failure swing. Why does it matter? Because that swing and its destruction was the trumpet-backed announcement that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 stimmie QE bull run had come to an end. And so coming back to raid it at a time when Big Jerome Powell openly told reporters at the last FOMC meeting that no rate cuts were scheduled AND that inflation would take years, not months, to come back to levels they regard as apropos, is a very dangerous situation. The thing about tops and bottoms is that whoever calls them is always wrong, because you can only see a top or a bottom on hindsight. In the interim, as they unfold, you can only anticipate that at a certain key price level, over a certain high or a certain low, that reversal patterns might manifest. The geopolitical situation is very sharp. I note in a new call that oil is likely headed for a literal 3 handle this year. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And I note that the US Dollar Index is due for a rally to at least 108. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia The cornerstone of the international chessboard is now, and always has been, Mainland China and its 5,000 year old country and culture, which has been ruined by the Chinese Communist Party over the course of its century of insanity. What's going on in the equities market is heavily wedded to the "War With Taiwan" narrative being espoused by the propaganda machine, which I discuss in my call on Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, a company that I believe is a significant long hedge during a potential upcoming downtrend. TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So as for this week's call, I would like to note that, unlike the Nasdaq, the SPX has not raided its March '22 intermediate high. This high at 4,631 happens to coincide with the new "JP Morgan Chase Collar," where one of the SIB's big funds sold calls at 4,665. I discuss this collar below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Something to understand about the big banks' business model is this: The first thing is that when they sell calls at a certain level, there is a buyer, and that buyer might be their clients. Their clients may have paid the bank the standard 10% fee in exchange for providing the liquidity. The reason the client would buy calls that JPM sells at a 10% premium is because they understand that the market will be made, in exchange, for those calls to be made worth more than they paid. Those calls were purchased at the end of June when the indexes traded circa 4,400. Why would JPM sell the calls and get themselves underwater? Because by September 29, Q3 end, they won't be underwater anymore, for one. For two, they're hedged long and are making money on the way up on the hedge. So they get to make money on the hedge, the calls ultimately expire worthless, and the client is happy because they got a big bag of cheap options at 4,400 to dump on the head of retail and Cathie Wood-style funds at 4,660. And all of this is to say that the 4,631 failure swing/pivot is very likely to be raided, and it is likely to be raided on Wednesday, FOMC day. During Monday's trade session, we will find out a lot about the intentions of the MMs. I believe they will only raid the 4,544 level on Monday market open, making it a buying opportunity to sell 100 points higher. However, if ES/SPX is to dump significantly to under 4,500 again, it stands to reason that the real target is the 4,800 ATH somewhere early in August. But I think, for a lot of reasons, this is just so less likely. Thus, SPX is likely to raid 4,544, which is to say the 4,550 psychological level, and trade over the 4,650 psychological level before Jerome Powell starts yapping. This FOMC is really significant because there isn't another rate hike until September, the end of Q3. So the trade is to long 4,540, sell it allllll at 4,650, and the target is under where JPM went long on puts and has been under water all month under 4,200 heading into the end of August and middle of September.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
Apple -> Will It Hold Support?Hello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Apple 💪 Starting on the monthly timeframe you can see that after Apple broke out of the clear triangle formation in confluence with the bullish moving averages, Apple created a strong rally of 30% towards the upside, breaking major resistance. The weekly timeframe looks a little bit overextended with barely and red candles during the last major push so we could certainly see a retest of the previous all time high at $180. I am now just waiting to see how Apple reacts at the current level considering that we are once again retesting the bullish trendline - so far market structure is still bullish but if we see a break lower, the daily timeframe looks like a correction is inevitable. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by basictradingtv
35
Breaking news. Whether to follow the signal to make money. eview last week's trend. Gold once soared to the 1987 line. The fall of the US dollar and changes in geopolitics act as support. For many friends who follow me to buy gold, they have made a lot of money. This is something to be congratulated on. But if you didn't follow the signal to buy gold but sell gold in the last week. Then the loss is heavy. Everyone has also seen that gold has not stabilized since it went up to the 1987 line. On the contrary, because of the rebound of the dollar, it continued to fall to the 1957 line. After the shock at the end of Friday, the closing price bottomed out at the 1962 line. After the opening of the Asian market, it touched the low of 1958 again, forming a short-term double support. There is no special news news today. From a short-term point of view, the current support is effective. Because this is the first time that gold has formed a second low support after falling from its high level last week. So in the short term, I will mainly buy gold. Of course, the actual trading situation is subject to the real-time trading signal updated by me on another channel. Never trade blindly. 1970 above is a short-term pressure level.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by magicianjerry
$APPL -Buy Opportunities - Apple Inc. ($APPL) nearing Support Trendline of its Rising Channel. Looking for long opportunities in the short-term, remaining positive TA speaking until the upcoming Earnings Report. Until 3rd of August positive momentum has captured $APPL ; (may be interreupted from Feds upcoming week Rate Hikes Decision) SL is adjustable from here, with the nearest point being the last Higher Low market structure, or the previous ATH depending on your risk apetite. Until the next one; trade smart TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before considering partaking any trading activity based solely on this Idea
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Mr_J__fx
2
Apple -> Watch This Potential PatternHello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Apple 💪 Starting on the monthly timeframe you can see that after Apple broke out of the clear triangle formation in confluence with the bullish moving averages, Apple created a strong rally of 30% towards the upside, breaking major resistance. The weekly timeframe on Apple is showing some overextension towards the upside and Apple hasn't retested the 0.236 fib level yet so we could indeed see a short term pullback now. Apple could also created a solid double top on the daily timeframe and if Apple stock also breaks below the solid uptrend line we could certainly see a short term move lower to retest the previous all-time-high at the $180 level. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by basictradingtv
25
APPLE Next stop 200 after a pull-backLast time we bought APPLE (AAPL) on the short-term was on June 05 (see chart below), after a technical pull-back, and easily hit our 190 target: The stock has maintained the Channel Up since late March with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in Support since January 25. Based on the 1D RSI, which has been within a Rectangle pattern while the stock is on the Channel Up, we are about to see a technical pull-back towards the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line and then rebound for a Higher High. That is a short-term opportunity for buyers to target $200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TradingShot
4
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'Over the last two quarters, financial social media has cared a lot about the "JPM Collar," a series of very large options trades that JP Morgan uses in one of the funds it offers its clients. The theory for speculators is that the JPM collar will be used to constrict the market within a certain range. But as for how that plays out, it's hard for a trader to anticipate, especially amid the daily chop. The levels are on the chart and you can reference them yourself. Below is a print of monthly bars, which is easier to see since I have to compress the TradingView chart to make the bars work: If you're not familiar options, the general idea is this: These options blocks expire September 29 JPM will lose a lot of money if price is over 4,665 or starts to approach 4,665, especially if it happens right away JPM will lose a lot of money if price goes under 3,550, especially if it happens right away JPM will lose a lot of money if price goes under 4,215, especially if it happens right away But a nuance of being long 4,215 calls is that if price is significantly over 4,215 by September, they will make a lot of money on their calls. Geopolitical Risks Before we begin, I'll warn you, as I do in every post, that the geopolitical situation is tense. NATO is at war with the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine and the International Rules Based Order is always talking about "de-risking, but not decoupling" from Mainland China under President Xi Jinping. The risk for markets is, short of a situation where a tectonic/geothermal event surprises everyone and causes the crash of crashes, is that Xi gets up one night and throws away the Chinese Communist Party. Since Beijing business hours are New York night, you'll wake up to quite the gap down that will be hard to recover from, for the Chinese Communist Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin and its cronies are guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners. The Call The most most notable thing about price action is as June closed, range equilibrium between the June high and the October low is exactly 4,000.00 points. Something else I stumbled upon when preparing for this post is that when comparing the Dow, Nasdaq, and SPX futures monthly bars, the three have completely converged. This is the first time since the **2022 top** that this has happened. You can see it on the weekly as well There used to be quite the delta, which allowed for stock picking and trading. If you ask me, what three memelines coming together all at once means is that the markets reached peak overbought, and genuine "overbought" isn't something you can see with an indicator. The daily shows this really only manifested in June. There are some problems with more uppy, as I explain in my calls below on the VIX, which needs to go up so that whales can go back to collecting free money selling volatility: VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude (But note that under the current conditions being summer and we're not that bearish right now, we may only see VIX 50) And the fact that the Nasdaq is just so far away from its trendline that going more parabolic is hard to believe. Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal I don't normally call exact areas, but I put a white box with a dolphin because I think price is going there, and will do so fast, like, mid-August fast. That box means 3,778~. This means JPM will be green on out of the money calls, red on its own calls, and red on the 3,550 puts. But JPM doesn't lose money to begin with because they're hedged and will be compensating for the drawdown in other ways, like the alpha they'll generate from going big block long in the dumps under 4,000. The other advantage is it will trap bears who think it's finally the apocalypse they've long been awaiting for the ponzi to go to zero, and they'll buy puts and buy puts even though the iVol is insane from VIX being over 50. Once the craziness is done, the markets will recover, and whoever sold will probably by trapped. So, be careful out there. Wall Street's best laid plans can be blown to pieces in an hour by Heaven, for men are no better than mice in this boundless Cosmos.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
6
Candlestick pattern: Shooting starShooting Star is a bearish candlestick reversal pattern. It signifies the end of an uptrend and the potential start of a downtrend. Its opposite is the Morning Star. When analyzing this pattern, we should observe if the confirming candle closes within the lower third of the range formed. This condition acts as a filter when deciding whether to initiate a trade or not. This filter makes sense because a stronger confirming candle indicates greater rejection of the uptrend continuation, thus increasing the likelihood of the pattern's success and the formation of a new downtrend. On the other hand, if the confirming candle does not close below two-thirds of the range formed, it could indicate weakness in the direction of the trend and decrease the probability of the start of a new downtrend.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading
Nasdaq - The Great Bear TrapIn recent analysis on the state of the markets, I note that the notion that we're "in a bull market" is actually really dangerous, and how, if you really want to see healthy markets into the future, you don't want to see a new all time high print yet, because we're just too far over the trend: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal Moreover, Q2 just finished strong, and with a new quarter, comes a new deployment of the algorithms. The infamous "JPM Collar" is something I discussed in a recent post: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Namely that I believe it forecasts a serious correction in the markets. But at the same time, it has until September to even start, really. And it's dangerous to be long right now because the VIX is so low and we've been in a bullish impulse inside of bearish market conditions for so long, which I note below VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude You can see the first manifestation of this principle has begun in both the VIX, and the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF: You might look at that and think "lol it gave all its gains back" but this is actually what you want to see if it's going to run a bit. I also have open calls for Tesla, which are short term, albeit significantly, bearish. Tesla - What To Expect Until September? And an open call on Netflix where I actually believe it will retrace to the $170s during the next major correction. Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives So where we're at with Nasdaq futures is that it made lower highs while the SPX made higher highs: The divergence is noise for the short term, but if you ask me, it means that in the long term, if we see a dump, and then a bounce, that Nasdaq will actually take out the high while SPX will be a laggard. What Friday's price action showed is that both SPX and Nasdaq have begun to dump. If you ask me, this is because before we can go higher, we must go lower. Sells have to be matched with buys and buys have to be matched with sells, after all. And at this point, we haven't seen any downside in the markets since March. It's too extreme. Two important areas of note is we have the daily pivot around 14,800 and the gap around 14,500. Both of these are places that I expect to see attempts at bounces that will not come to fruition. Because you need to give people a chance to buy the dip and then for them to get stopped out. I believe that the reason things will dump, and they may dump violently, and fast, is to crank the VIX and have all the permabears finally see their "opportunity" emerge to get short for "the crash." Only for markets to bounce through the end of August while everyone with money is at the sea side and VIX dies a slow death back to a 9-handle while volatility gets sold off for free money again. By then, nobody will want to be short anymore. Everyone will have capitulated. Then the fireworks can start, and early bears will miss the move, much to their consternation. So, I believe that Nasdaq and tech stocks give the opportunity to short through the next few weeks. On Wednesday, we have CPI, which has not mattered in months, but may matter a lot now while the markets pretend to care about whether the Fed hikes rates again. Then we have FOMC on July 25 and a Nasdaq 100 "rebalance" on the 24th. A recovery through the end of July and all the way through the end of August is a very likely scenario. Until then, I believe we will see violent and significant downside, and it finally gives an opportunity trade puts and bear ETFs until you see really significant bullish movement in price at key levels, and then look for longs. But the next time it's time to go long, it's only a scalp. After Q3, the remainder of 2023 and the early part of 2024 is likely to be quite dangerous. There are more important things in life than making money. Make sure you take good care of yourselves and your family and friends. Make sure you make up for your regrets as soon as possible, lest you find yourself with no further chances to set right what was set wrong.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
AAPL - BULLISH SCENARIOKeyBanc raised its price target for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to $200 from $180 and maintained an Overweight rating on the stock. However, analysts expressed neutrality in the near term despite their positive long-term outlook. They reiterated their below-consensus revenue estimates for Apple's hardware in the third quarter of 2023. The analysts highlighted two concerns. First, Key first look data (Apple direct channel) showed strong spending in June compared to historical averages, but a quarter-on-quarter decline worse than historical averages. Second, KeyBanc expected softness in Apple's indirect channel (U.S. Carriers) due to historically low upgrade rates in the United States. The analysts concluded by stating that for Apple to achieve favorable results, international sales must compensate for underperforming U.S. sales. Their price target is set at $200, based on a multiple of 20.8x their 2024 adjusted EBITDA estimates. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by legacyFXofficial