Arbitrage of cryptocurrencies using indicators
Many have heard about P2P cryptocurrency arbitrage using bank cards and exchangers. With this, there are a number of problems and risks associated with blocking accounts, freezing money indefinitely or blocking accounts on the exchanges, since in order to effectively engage in this type of arbitration a trader must have not only his personal cards, but also drop cards (relatives, friends, etc.), and in the case of If there are any problems it becomes extremely difficult to solve them, as well as to explain to banks the origin of so many transfers from different persons.
The interexchange arbitration of cryptocurrencies is devoid of all these disadvantages, when transactions are made only on exchanges, and coins are sent only between exchanges and no third-party services, exchangers, P2P platforms and banks participate in the process of such arbitration.
How do I find and track such arbitration situations?
– situations when the exchange rate for a certain asset on one exchange is lower than on another. This will be helped by a set of indicators that track exchange rate differences for the selected asset on different exchanges. Using these indicators a trader can track how the size of the spread (exchange rate difference) has changed over time, what were the extreme values of this spread and how often it occurs at all.
Currently, there are three versions of this indicator.
1️⃣
The first version – the lightest in terms of the load on the hardware – allows you to track arbitrage situations for one selected trading pair. It provides a chart of the spread itself, the definition of extreme spread values, as well as a counter for the number of arbitrage situations in three time intervals.
2️⃣
The second version of the indicator has the same functionality on board, but for three trading pairs. That is, using one indicator you can track the spread on three assets at the same time.
3️⃣
The third version is essentially an arbitrage dashboard showing and tracking 12 trading pairs at the same time.
As the authors of these indicators and arbitrage screeners, we use a combination of the 2nd and 3rd versions of the indicator in our work. If this is too heavy for your system you can use the 1st and 3rd, or some one. In the large dashboard version (3rd), we track 12 of the most interesting assets at a time, and in the version with the spread chart (1st or 2nd), we are already looking at a more detailed picture of those of them that are of the greatest interest for further work.
What else?
In all the presented indicators, you can configure:
✅ threshold values at which additional tinting of the spread chart will occur for a better visual representation of the nature of the movement.
✅ threshold values at which the spread value in its extreme values will be displayed on the chart. Since the charts are located in TradingView price zones other than the actual spread values, this option allows you to quickly understand the real historical spread values that were in the past.
✅ threshold values at which alerts from the indicator will be received through the built-in TradingView alerts function. All you need to do is set the threshold value in the indicator, and then add an alert from the indicator in the TradingView alert settings. It is important to understand that the threshold value for all trading pairs selected in the indicator is the same, so alerts will be sent as soon as the spread value exceeds the threshold value for any of them.
✅ time intervals of the counter for the number of arbitration situations. There are three of them. That is, when analyzing a particular trading pair you can see how many times the spread value exceeded the threshold. For example, in the last 5 minutes, an hour and a day. This will give an understanding of the prospects of tracking the selected trading pair in the future.
All that remains to be done is to buy the coin at the price indicated in the Buy row on the corresponding exchange and sell it at the price from the Sell row on the second exchange.
Arbitrage
Extracting Arbitrage Yields In Bitcoin Carry TradeBitcoin is known as digital gold. It is treasured as an investment asset. Much like the famous yellow metal, bitcoin (“BTC”) does not offer income through dividends or interest. This poses a challenge for investors seeking regular cashflows and income.
One strategy that skilled investors use to turn BTC into an income generating asset is the cash and carry trade (“carry trade”).
This paper describes mechanics of carry trade and the attendant risks. It also highlights that the introduction of spot ETFs has created a secure infrastructure for harvesting carry yields using a regulated platforms such as the CME.
INTRODUCTION TO THE CARRY TRADE
The carry trade is an arbitrage strategy that benefits from the differences in futures and spot price of an asset. It is a delta neutral strategy. In other words, the returns are not price dependent once the carry trade is profitably set up.
To illustrate, consider the forward curve of CME Bitcoin futures which shows futures prices at different expiries.
Bitcoin futures with later expiries trade at a premium to near term ones and this type of market structure is referred to as contango.
In a trade that involves simultaneous acquisition of BTC and selling a BTC futures contract expiring later, investors can lock in the price difference as profits. Once established, this trade’s profit is unaffected by price moves enabling investors to harvest carry yield at the futures expiry.
The pay-off from this trade is driven by convergence of futures and spot prices. Convergence is the movement of a futures price closer to spot price at expiry. Once futures and spot price are sufficiently close, the trade can be unwound by simultaneously exiting both positions.
For CME Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin futures, convergence occurs because the futures contracts settle to a robust price benchmark known as the CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (“BRR”) which includes price quotes from major crypto exchanges.
BTC FUTURES CONTANGO TERM STRUCTURE AND PREVALANCE OF CARRY TRADE
Carry trades can be executed in both contango and backwardation term structures. While the carry trade can technically be executed in backwardation (where later expiries are cheaper), doing so involves high borrowing costs for the short spot leg. Hence, BTC’s contango term structure is beneficial for extracting arbitrage yields from carry trade.
Factors driving BTC contango term structure are multi-faceted. Simply put, during bull runs, investors anticipate higher prices for contracts maturing later. Furthermore, high demand for spot BTC and limited availability on the sell-side can exacerbate forward premiums.
Additional factors resulting in contango include cost of funds, insurance premiums, and custodial charges that are higher for later expiries, and a convenience yield of holding BTC. Convenience yield represents returns from holding BTC through activities such as lending.
BTC futures term structure has shown both contango and backwardation during different periods. Current term structure indicates bullish sentiment fuelled by spot BTC approval in January and the next halving event expected in April.
Term structure shifts can result in outsized returns at times. Notably, the switch from contango to backwardation can offer outsized returns on the carry trade, exceeding the difference between futures and spot price as observed at trade inception.
The carry trade has been a popular strategy, especially during periods of significant volatility and during bull markets when BTC contango structure widens. Even sell-offs provide compelling trading opportunities as the carry trade is directionally neutral. Carry trades have lower risk relative to an outright long position.
For reference , during 2021, LedgerPrime’s quant fund was able to beat BTC returns using, among others, the carry trade during a large selloff.
RISKS OF THE CARRY TRADE
The carry trade neutralises market risk but is still subject to counterparty risks and liquidity risks when spreads diverge and tear.
Largest risk factors associated with the carry trade is the counterparty risk . While CME futures are regulated by the CFTC, spot crypto exchanges are not subject to similar regulations. This poses significant risk for investors if they opt to hold their BTC on such unregulated exchanges.
Such risks arising from trading on unregulated platforms is most exemplified by the collapse of FTX. FTX was a popular exchange for executing carry trades as it offered dated futures, perps, and spot BTC on its platform. The dramatic collapse of FTX highlighted counterparty risk as a major concern.
Self-custody of spot BTC has its own risks including transfer costs and cybersecurity risks.
Another risk factor is early liquidation. As the futures leg of the trade is a short position, where prices rally sharply, the short position may be at risk of liquidation despite a proportional gain on the long leg of the carry trade.
SPOT BTC ETF HELPS REDUCE COUNTERPARTY RISKS
The rollout of spot BTC ETFs reduces counterparty risk. Unlike unregulated crypto exchanges, spot ETFs are regulated by the SEC, listed on regulated exchanges with investor protection.
With both the futures and spot leg now available through regulated platforms, investors have access to secure infrastructure for executing the carry trade.
The table below provides details of approved spot ETFs including AUM, expense ratio, and the benchmark index.
Carry trade using spot ETFs with CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (CME BRR) enables greater precision in extracting arbitrage yields. Seven of the eleven approved spot BTC ETFs use the CME BRR.
Still, there are downside to using spot ETFs for long BTC exposure in carry trades. For one, ETFs are only tradeable during market hours (9:30AM to 4:00PM US Eastern Time not including extended trading hours) whereas cryptocurrency exchanges and even CME futures trade for longer hours.
Moreover, expense ratios and premium/discount to NAV for ETFs will erode already thin profits. Spot BTC ETFs are currently offering discounts on expense ratio for a fixed period.
CARRY TRADE ILLUSTRATION
To illustrate a hypothetical carry trade, consider the following setup comprising long BITB ETF and short CME Bitcoin futures (BTCH2024).
BITB references the same CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate as CME futures and its premium/discount of -0.07% (as of 09/Feb) offers a beneficial entry point for this trade. Moreover, the premium/discount on the ETF has been tight.
Source: Bitwise
The premium for MBTH2024 over spot reference rate as of close on 9/Feb was 2.83%. Taking seven basis point discount to NAV, this results in total return of 2.90% over 48 days resulting in an annualized arbitrage return of 22%.
As the trade is required to be directionally neutral, notional value on both legs needs to be balanced. CME Micro Bitcoin futures (“MBT”) offers exposure to 0.1 BTC.
Notional on short BTCH2024 futures leg: 0.1 BTC
As of close 09/Feb,
BITB market price: USD 25.95
CME CF Benchmark BTC price: USD 47,614
Each share of BITB offers exposure to 0.000545 BTC
184 shares of BITB provide exposure to 0.000545 x 184 = 0.100280 BTC
The payoff from the trade consisting of 184 x long BITB and 1 x short MBTH2024 would be 2.9% of notional value = 2.9% x (0.1 x 47,614 USD/BTC) = USD 138.
The trade requires margin of USD 980 on the short futures leg and notional of USD 4,775 on the long leg for a total capital requirement of USD 5,755 (as of Feb 2023) which translates into ROI of 2.4%.
Still, as mentioned, liquidation risk remains a concern. Hence, it is prudent to maintain higher margin on the short futures leg which would lower the ROI.
Note that timing this trade better can improve the odds and in case Bitcoin’s term structure switches from contango to backwardation, payoff would be higher.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
scalping (ARB)📊Analysis by AhmadArz:
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Gaine in renge (ARB)❤️❤️Thanks for boosting 🚀 and supporting us!
📈Yes we are in big renge so sell in high & buy in low renge.
📊 (Buy) : 1.0438
🔴 Stop Loss : 1.0095
🎯 Take Profit : 1.069 - 1.111 - 1.146
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ARB has reached the point of considering buyingARB has reached the point of considering buying.
After pumping 30% around the end of September
ARB has returned to the market price level to start pumping.
At this price, we have an opportunity to consider buying.
At the price level of 0.8, there was quite a strong reaction from the bulls.
Now we just need to wait for a short profit-taking session of buyers below 0.8 to buy.
ARBUSDTThe overall situation of BINANCE:ARBUSDT can be described as follows:
A descending channel has formed, which confirms with multiple price bounces off the lower channel line. It is likely that the price will soon reach $1.40 from $1.16 and validate the hypothesis of the descending channel, shaping it further.
At the price of $1.40, we are witnessing a resistance line, and it doesn't seem likely that the market will be able to break through this resistance under the current conditions.
⚠️ "Daily crypto market analyses I provide are personal opinions & not financial advice. Trading carries risks, so do your own research & seek advisor's help."
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ARBUSDT - Expecting Massive Up move!!ARBUSDT (4h Chart) Technical analysis
ARBUSDT (4h Chart) Currently trading at $1.045
Buy level: Above $1.04
Stop loss: Below $0.96
TP1: $1.1
TP2: $1.15
TP3: $1.2
TP4: $1.28
Max Leverage 3x
Always keep Stop loss
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About the logic of the cryptocurrency secondary marketThe information is all public, follow the hot spots 👇
From the beginning of the year to the current market, the second level has operated 3 coins, LDO ARB Sui
LDO is judged to be the coin that will definitely be Fomo up as ETH Shanghai upgrades and the LSD track is hyped again, dead take, from last year's set to this year's return to slightly profitable
ARB obviously Layer2 leading, airdrop did not sell, plus the secondary pick up, the current market price, the water a little
Sui, each size exchange in the main online day all on the coin of the situation, do not participate in seems to be unable to say. Especially Upbit, the Korean exchange, directly on the BTC trading pair + KRW trading pair.
Secondary follow the major exchanges, there is soup, hot spots in different markets to verify each other
Currently in the water
These three coins, many research institutions to the entry point is below 1, the current market price to see, 1.1 ~ 1.3 near strong support
Three operations, with the asset curve back up, the control of positions, hot spots, and price estimates are becoming more and more certain.
Fundamentals, market narrative hotspots, superimposed on the trading level of the K-line, time cycle, position management is also slowly disc up
Knowing and doing, there is in serious practice
"Information is worth money, the interpretation of information, the interpretation of the operation is worth more.
Clearly they come to the market is to make money, not to see the fun and mouth high"
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