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Arbitrage

RISK ARB OPPORTUNITY: SKY BUYOUT There's been another big deal developing ($29-30B) so I figured I'd post another arbitrage, in this case, 'risk arb' or Merger Arbitrage. Fox needs to raise its offer of 10.75 pounds per share for the 61 percent of the British pay-TV company it doesn’t already own, in order to challenge Comcast’s 12.50 pounds per share bid. Comcast, which already won U.K. approval for its Sky approach, has a deadline of Friday to put the 22 billion pound ($29 billion) proposal to Sky shareholders under U.K. takeover rules....The tussle over Sky is part of a wider bidding contest between Comcast and Walt Disney Co. for the bulk of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, as each tries to scale up to take on streaming competitors Netflix Inc. and Amazon.com faculty.chicagobooth.edu www.newyorkfed.org Although it's formally an arbitrage strategy, purists would argue that it's not a pure arbitrage as it incorporates speculative aspects and is not as riskless as other strategies such as convertible arbitrage which fully hedges deltas: The main basis in a stock-for-stock acquisition revolves around the idea that the target's stock will often trade at a lower market price compared to the exchange ratio that will apply once the deal is closed. Traders will purchase the target's stock and receive an excess value of the acquirer's stock when the deal is closed. To hedge risk, traders will short the same number of the acquirer's shares based on the exchange ratio. The objective is to capture the spread between the target's share price at market and the closing price based on the exchange ratio set by the acquirer. Spreads can be between 5-10% (median) for deals that close upwards of 55 days. Unlike other arbitrages, risk arbs can be done quite easily, but like all other strategies, can also become more efficient and complex if done professionally. Risk arb funds can also be good diversification for a portfolio as they often generate superior risk adjusted returns in poor markets. www.bloomberg.com
SEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2421992
Crypto Exchanges: Profitable CorrelationsComparing Price Movements of one Crypto-Currency on multiple Crypto Exchanges can be very profitable! My approach is to compare the Movements on an Exchange with high Volume with the price Movement on an Exchange with low Volume. The Hypothesis is that if the Price on the low Volume Exchange is falling, while the Price is rising on a high Volume Exchange, the Price on the low Volume Exchange will follow the direction of the high Volume Exchange. I proof this Hypothesis with backtests and I already found some really nice Correlations and here is another one: If BTCUSD is falling on the 1H chart on HitBTC (low Volume) while XBTUSD is rising on BitMEX (high Volume), the probability is high, that the Price will start to rise on HitBTC too. There are only a few Trades a year that match the criteria, but more than 80% are profitable with a low Drawdown. Here's the Screenshot with the backtesting results (TradingView might not show the Output of the Strategy Tester when I publish a Idea of the Type "Education")
BEducation
by TradingClue
Idea for arbitrage tradingHello everyone! Hope that this idea will be helpful for you. All we know that listing of ETC will be expected on Coinbase soon. There has been news about listing recently and the rate has increased. On the exchanges with big turnover the rate is growing faster than with less one. That is why there are holes between exchanges. If you check less popular exchanges you’ll find orders on the big volume of selling. During this day I’m following exchanges which are connected with BibitBot.com and there are orders for selling for lower price than on Binance. As soon as the difference has reached even more than 1.5% I’ve started to get notifications every 3 seconds about buying on some exchanges and selling it on Binance. That what I’ve done. I think you’ll agree with me that it’s hard to follow and monitor exchanges, but with the help of BibitBot this work has been perfectly done. As soon as there is an increase of the rate I can get notifications. 15% is not really bad. Most of all I expect the listing on Coinbase. As it’ll be started I’ll be the first who will get to know about it, because there will be huge holes, as it was with TRX when it was its listing on Bittrex. I took this chance too. This is an idea for your trading if you’ve donated in ETC on the long period. While the rate will be volatile, you can earn without risks more than 50% with BibitBot.com. By the way, if you’re interested in bot, I can share with you my free using coupon for one month (so you’ll have 2 month for free). Promocode is XEN9
Long
by xenon9
Mispricing in correlated coins? Ripple and StellarRipple and Stellar Price Correlation is 88.8%. (+) Ripple and Stellar Returns Correlation is 49.86%. (+) Wanted to check out if there is any mispricing to profit from by simply betting on the one that diverges. However as we can see from the chart, there is no clear indication on who is the market leader (the one that determines the overall trend) and both Stellar and Ripple take turns to lead the movements. The extent of the movements is also unclear. Maybe we can see it on a lower timeframe? (But it shouldn't matter actually) Conclusion: Cannot really profit from mispricing since there is no clear indication of who is the leading the trend and converges back to the norm by either coin. Furthermore, correlations are not causations. Sometimes it may that A and B are correlated but actually its C that is causing A and B to be highly correlated. Therefore there is a need to check on a whole range of other correlations between as many assets (other coins, especially the largest ones like bitcoin and ethereum, and prob USD) Lastly, a correlation study is historical and as we all know in this industry that past returns are no guarantee of future success as factors causing correlations can change over time.
KRAKEN:XRPUSD
by BlackPapaya
BCN Bytecoin gets listed on Binance and moons! Arbitage [BTFD]so i grabbed a bit ogf bytecoin after being last years biggest returns i know its a shitcoin, i know its a scam coin, i also know people in crypto buy things they have no idea about anything cheap and nasty, hodlers love it! SO an AMAZING arb chance here, Polo its almost x10 cheaper if your in Australia u can buy BCN directly on coinspot.com.au the wonders of crypto.... take small risks on this one its not a coin u want to be holding, transfers are pending from polo still
BLong
by majorlee
9
AUDNZD LongSetting up a buy limit with TP @1.083 and a buy stop order with TP near 1.10 and SL near 1.06 based on weekly chart price action, as well as price differential arbitrage opportunity on this pair despite AUD being weak this week from USD recovery. www.fxstreet.com www.forexlive.com www.fxstreet.com Daily: Weekly: Confidence: B (risk of getting whipsawed by the end of this month esp during NZD trade balance news release on Friday, assuming it goes as forecasted or lower, better to enter these buy orders after the news instead)
Long
by aiza_belle
Expecting A nice Rally then BIG fall: LPT: 271 SPT 245.60 hourly chart major resistant there at the mean of the system for the last 3 months center red line at 271 Daily Chart The mean is also 271.00 for the arbitrage band and the intermediate band ( 1 Trading Year) is out of space so needs it needs to correct to it's over sold position of approximately 245.60 Coincidentally 271 will align to form a lower high in the elliott wave system as well. Weekly Chart Another Elliot Wave as it tests our momentum line with all Bands nicely stacked. Ride to 271 and then run like hell!
AMEX:SPY
by aixguru
Eth Arbitrage - Bullish Call Another one so soon? Yep, Lets swallow some profits mates. Heres a bullish conformation for Bitcoin - Things may slide a bit for ETH as its about to split through a declined head and shoulders. Take a look at this and keep it in the back of your mind... Yeah I know you're gonna share this with your investment friends and their gonna call me cray cray. The market is never wrong, opinions are. Maybe even this one? Who cares. Get closer to your lambo. Brought to you by Crayola ;P
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by BlackDiamondG
Long BTCUSD PT: 13262.00 with the next 3-6 monthsAfter a beautiful fall and level set at about 8200. We are expecting a move up for btcusd to around 13262.00 All of our indicators on the hourly scale are ready for the big push. Arbitrage Band has given us a nice green flag. Arbitrage Level is saying that the momentum within the band is now positive. We have a new hourly higher high with Arbitrage Tick And Arbitrage Loop is saying the fair value price for btcusd is currently 8247 and a new Bullish loop is starting. We'll see you at our next trade Arbitrage Trade Team
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by aixguru