Keep Calm and 4k OnBears don't get to convinced a sell off is near.
Bulls will be buying the dip for the entire next year.
4K is the level, premium the harvest.
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In this idea I present to you a level everyone should be aware of because my prediction is that we will end 2023 around 4k.
I was browsing the SPX options chain for 2023 and 4k is by far the highest open interest across all major expires like quad witching.
This shouldn't be a surprise as it has been a magnet since the Archegos margin call.
I jokingly call it the Archegos Gap.
But after extensive research into SLR and ON Reverse Repos it is also a major level the Fed shifted policy in 2021.
Every directional shift higher or to lower from 4k has correlation with the Archegos Gap.
Most notable are:
Inverted Yield Curves
Hyper Inflation
Debt
DXY
The market is starting to wake up to the idea equities will be flat for the entire year.
Archegos
Economic CausalityYou know why we are here.
I'm a trafficker of information, I know everything I can.
The question is. Do you know why you are here?
We are looking for Bill Hwang.
This is not a reason. This is not a why.
You are here because you were sent here.
You were told to come here and you obeyed.
Ha ha, it is of course the way of all things.
You see there is only 1 constant, 1 universal, it is the only real truth.
Causality.
Action. Reaction.... Cause and Effect.
Everything begins with choice.
No. Wrong. Choice is an illusion.
Created between those with power, and those without.
The Archegos GapHard rejection from what I call the Archegos Gap.
The Archegos gap is a gap up created in SPY during a rally after the infamous HF collapsed and the FEDs RRP which is still climbing to historic levels.
The gap was finally closed in May, only to open a gap down in June that was just barely filled last Friday before selling off to where we are now.
I had a bullish outlook for tech earnings this month until I realized the indexes are doing the exact same song and dance this quarter as it did in April.
That is to say, a strong market rally off the FED pivot prior to the big ERs.
The FED is desperate to lower inflation which touched even higher during the last CPI print.
Hiring freezes are turning into cuts. SHOP is laying off 10% of its workforce today.
I should have seen it coming because I applied for a position at SHOP a few weeks ago and didn’t even get a callback.
What internet company in their right mind would turn up a chance for an internet engineer with 25 years experience amiright?
I was really hoping 362 was the bottom on SPY, but my sense is there is still more pain to come.
Just don’t expect it to be a straight line down.
Everyone is just starting to fall back on credit.
When you start to see households capitulating and selling their trailers, yachts and over paid homes and used cars is when we can start talking about the bottom being in.
My only open position right now is an OTM short position on SPY@320 for Jan23.
The Archegos EffectWith todays rally from the lows, investors dumped oil and ran to tech.
ARKK Finally hit bottom in search of hope?
SPY is in harmony at 370/380. Key Area support at Archegos event horizon.
This is setting up to be a short squeeze higher in tech for names like AAPL
China Tech names have been channelling higher with names like TME riding the top +2 STD Dev.
Check out the hat trick on tops since Archegos. China Tech, then Qs, and finally the RR.
Qs bouncing off the same China Tech lows as RR hits resistance.
WHY?
You know me. You down with GDP?
Be prepared. July 13th AM is major VANNA/CHARM window of weakness.
While VANNA/CHARM are on vacation in San Francisco. VIX and SKEW will no longer be Hang Dia.
So long and thanks for the fish!There is getting to be a solid case for a significant move lower between now and the end of the month.
The Hang Seng index broke down below March 2020 lows
A Gap in SPY/SPX from Apr5th 2021 is looking to get filled, the same gap when the Overnight RR broke out.
You know.. right after the prime brokers threw Archegos under the bus.
Russia is still afraid to open MOEX and thinks 10 billion (what usd?) is going to keep Russian equities a float.
MGA lost over 6Billion in market cap just for having a couple factories in Russia.
The effects of prolonged negative gamma are starting to show, but don't think hedge funds or market makers are suffering to much.
I would venture a guess that banks have been waiting since apr 2021 to buy the dip.
There will likely be a thrust lower to fill the apr 5th gap between now and April 1st.
trade safe. stop blowing shit up.
Red Light VS Green LightHere is the first game.
You'll be playing Red Light , Green Light .
You're allowed to move forward when "it" shouts Green Light .
Stop when "it" shouts Red Light .
If your movement is detected afterward, you will be eliminated.
Those who cross the finish line without getting margin called will pass this round.
...
I will now repeat the rules.
Not Financial Advice. A Parody.
