+50% ??Catch +50% these days is hard, so I am not going on this one. But I want to monitor how things will turn out so I am publishing without fear but sharing for someone who can use it
Arcs, Circles And Spirals
Clean, simple BTC 4H timeframe targetI took the time to review every crash avaliable on TD with bitstamp exchange, since march 2015 on 4H, with the same methodology on each one:
Apply the circle fib on all extension of crash with the 1.618 level;
Apply standard Fibonacci to read the rebound;
Check position of inner 0.236 fib circle in relation to the center of the crash;
Check if crash is ABC or ABCDE;
Check duration of the crash;
So I got this:
March, August 2015:
November 2015, July 2016:
January, March, June 2017:
After checking how much it rebound inside the 1.618 Fib circle almost all ABCDE crashes rebound to 0.5 standard Fibonacci while one crash rebounded to the 0.786 and other to the 1.0 Fib. So based on this I think the most conservative and with higher probability is a rebound to the 0.5 Fib and them the market will keep swinging as always but outside the 1.618 circle Fib.
The very BIG pictureI have zoomed out several times trying to figure out BTCUSD market, after trying to find answers on the past I finally decided to see the very BIG picture. So the first thing I spotted was a possible very BIG 5 waves formation and we are still beginning wave 4 with more 2 crashes to go in 2018 to have a complete ABCDE correction and finally start the all might extended 5 wave where people will get crazy and live only to buy crypto ! But until there we need to survive ! I have imagined two possible paths, one nearly close to 2014 where it rebounds a lot, near 17K, in order to cross the mean and start the 2nd crash, and another where it don't cross the mean, maybe hit it and come for an inner ABC where BC is the 2nd crash and finally the 3rd crash where almost everyone will get broke and panic will be widespread with everyone calling crypto "ded"
About to break up +10%With very few alts performing better them BTCUSD +10% is not that bad. Very tricky sideway for a long time, could eventually break up here.
Another 2 days prediction +9%With BTCUSD set on a triangle and nobody could tell where it will go, some minor alts has some hints for a 2 day period, this one +9%
+16% 6 daysVery very trick one, but found some harmonic for a bullish view, targets on Fibo levels on chart.
Rocket +30% 2 daysThis is very much experimental analysis, have put very into it, trade is already in. I'm experimenting with Fibonacci Circles applied with a similar technique I am already using for classical Fibonacci and sometimes it picks very much interesting points. BCH is moving relatively wide swings with huge gains which makes it very good for swing trading / scalping. Target on chart, with a very short trailing stop. BCHBTC looks like completed ABC correction and is going for its wave 3 and BCH usually spikes like a rocket, let's see how this unfold !
Trickiest everLTCBTC looks only suitable for analysis on the daily timeframe. It just break out and paused at 0.5 Fibo, still not clear it can go directly to the 0.786 Fibo or take some 44 days for it.
Neblio vs Bitcoin NeblbtcI expect it to go in the green square. In case it goes parabolic I will sell around that area.
If you don't like the fib spiral ignore it and just look at the support and resistance lines.
btc - testtesting fib circles, am mainly saving this for my self to check back with later. Am anticipating a run up, and then great drop after we pass the next circle in 25 minutes.
$6k incoming again, tomorrow or next day is my prediction.
BTC/USD support at $7100, $5600, $5000; >$9000 predictionThe ascending speed resistance fan line along with the Fibonacci arc intersect with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement line, and $btc made a nice pullback if you can see the wick under all the stupid lines I put on the chart.
It is possible that the falling wedge is going to break out soon, since the OBV Shadow indicator along with volume show huge sell volume over buy volume. C M Super Guppy EMA lines turning gray provide further evidence for that. Evidence against a reversal now is the slight increase in short positions.
Based on a retracement beginning 25 Oct., we should bounce off $5,600. If not...
The descending speed resistance fan line intersects with the Fibonacci arc at $5,000. The falling wedge could complete its formation around that area, going for one more dip before rallying.
If Bitcoin value drops below $5,000 and does not make a wick and pull back like it did on the 23.60% retracement, I expect the #btc to be bearish/under $7,000 in the next Fibonacci timezone(11 Feb. - 17 Mar.).
(The Fibonacci timezone is the blue vertical lines in the background, numbered at the top)
Finally, if we do rally from the wedge, the ascending fan line should be about where $btc value will be headed, and we should be staying above $9000.
$BTC/USD - D - [TA] Fibonacci Seq./Gann Fan Value ExtrapolationParameters:
Trough: ~$970
Peak: ~$19,600
Fibonacci Time Zone interval: 8 days
Gann Fans: Based upon a 45 degree angle, trough to peak and peak to trough
Fibonacci Circle: From trough to peak
Scale: Log, no auto scale, 20/20/20 margin
Price/bar ratio: 0.0047485
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Predictions
On the Fibonacci time zone, we are shown dramatic price changes per time zone. I believe since we have nearly fully retaced, the value should increase again.
Based on previous data, we can see that there is a slight dip before entering it. It might be the same the other wise.
ON
I've noticed that the current downtrend of $BTC can be either two things: a downtrending channel or a falling wedge. I obviously prefer the latter, but I cannot chart a falling wedge that I like.
All the tools used are based on the Fibonacci Sequence, sans the Ganns fans. I usually use indicators such as overlaid indicators and RSI/OBV, but I felt like all these were unneeded since the drawing tools I will be using create their own supports.
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Right now is yet another crucial time for $BTC. If we break the 38.20% line without any hammer candles, I am expecting a free fall to the 50% retracement, ~$5,000. I want to believe this is our true bottom, based upon tthe support given by the Gann fans intersecting and, retracement. But if we look back to MtGox, it even retraced further under the 50% after a another Fibonacci time zone begun. Spooky!
Because our value exploded in 2017, the Fibonacci circle cannot provide support like it does for stocks; instead, we end up with extremely high volatility and a ~$5,600 bottom until we can breach the next Fibonacci circle line.
Explanation of the tools used. This may be skipped or critiqued.
Fibonacci circle: This was drawn from trough to peak (~$930 -> ~$1950); As you can see, the inner circles were used as supports and resistances; however, because the value jumped so quickly, we aren't afforded the luxury of circle support, only FIbonacci retacement levels. This means we can face many rejections back down to the previous support level, whether that be ~$8,500 or ~$5,600.
Fibonacci Retracement: Throgh to peak, essential tool of traders. Predefines future supports and resistances; can be used to find bottoms or ATHs.
Fibonacci Time Zone: 8 day interval between 0 and 1. I lined it up wth major market movement, with its starting point in a period of high voliatility,
Fibonacci Circle : trough to peak/ till based on the fib sequence; each upcming line is resistance, while the lind before it support.
Gann Fans I verified they were 45 degrees and didn't move the scale afterwards. 1x1 lines were not held, looks like the 1x2 on the top Gann will be new support. Looks good for going side ways at$ $8,000 for now
Volume: A simple way to determine market action, sentiment, and trend.
Thoughts?
$BTC 1D - Fibonacci tools and Gann Fans to identify supportI've noticed that the current downtrend of $BTC can be either two things: a downtrending channel or a falling wedge. I obviously prefer the latter, but I cannot chart a falling wedge that I like.
All the tools used are based on the Fibonacci Sequence, sans the Ganns fans. I usually use indicators such as overlaid indicators and RSI/OBV, but I felt like all these were unneeded since the drawing tools I will be using create their own supports.
Right now is yet another crucial time for $BTC. If we break the 38.20% line without any hammer candles, I am expecting a free fall to the 50% retracement, $5,600. I want to believe this is our true bottom. But if we look back to MtGox, it even retraced further under the 50% after a another Fibonacci time zone begun. Spooky!
Because our value exploded in 2017, the Fibonacci circle cannot provide support like it does for stocks; instead, we end up with extremely high volatility and a ~$5,600 bottom until we can breach the next Fibonacci circle line.
Explanation of the tools used. This may be skipped or critiqued.
Fibonacci circle: This was drawn from trough to peak (~$930 -> ~$1950); As you can see, the inner circles were used as supports and resistances; however, because the value jumped so quickly, we aren't afforded the luxury of circle support, only FIbonacci retacement levels. This means we can face many rejections back down to the previous support level, whether that be ~$8,500 or ~$5,600.
Fibonacci Retracement: Throgh to peak, essential tool of traders. Predefines future supports and resistances; can be used to find bottoms or ATHs.
Fibonacci Time Zone: 8 day interval between 0 and 1. I lined it up wth major market movement, with its starting point in a period of high voliatility,
Fibonacci Circle : trough to peak/ till based on the fib sequence; each upcming line is resistance, while the lind before it support.
Gann Fans I verified they were 45 degrees and didn't move the scale afterwards. 1x1 lines were not held, looks like the 1x2 on the top Gann will be new support. Looks good for going side ways at$ $8,000 for now
Volume: A simple way to determine market action, sentiment, and trend.
Thoughts?
BTCUSD LongFibonacci spiral indicator provides support to the idea that ~9.2-9.3 was the final true bottom for this BTC correction.
BTC is oversold and this bounce could trigger the next major price movement upward and onward.
Long live the king!
SUB / BTC - last Elliott wave before reactionI went fully Fibonacci on SUB.
Using the time zone, retracement, extension and arc/circle tool.
Any thoughts on the target zone?
Bitcoin expectationBitcoin is in a bearish pattern, although, that's what it looks like. It crosses the 61,8% in the fib-tool (using Bitfinex)and in using the fib-spiral it looks like this will be confirmed a bearish pattern. There is a S-H-S formed with a declining line. As part of this S-H-S is the retracement ABC pattern which is formed during the S-H-S. So all signs look like a short term bearish pattern indeed.
As bitcoin is pretty unreliable there could be support formed around the $11K level. This support could be formed when bitcoin breaks through the green Ichimuko cloud. We'll see how it turns out. This is NO sell advise or buy advise either. Enjoy trading!
BITCOIN 4 WEEKS - FIBONACCI FORECAST Let's take a look at a lesser used form of Fibonacci - Spirals! Trend is still very bullish as everyone can see. We are testing highs again over the next few weeks. Three things can happen - consolidation through the Resistance Area, or a change up or down to the Target Area or Correction Area. All the signals are pointing to the price moving UP. My position is Long and I don't see the Bulls getting shaken out of this pattern just yet. My suggestion - HOLD LONG. More updates to come. Cheers - Bryant
Going for the Lambo after Swell? I guess I'll take the PriusFib Spirals are a quirky indicator, you have to place them properly and you can only use them when you reset and lock the scale. But still, it is an indicator I enjoy using because it gives you a better idea of a realistic range during a specific date. Take as an example the range between 10/4 and 10/6.
Too many people are expecting Ripple to moon, I prefer to take a safer trade since I expect Ripple to pump and dump, remember: Buy the hype, sell the news.
