ARKK
Coinbase $COIN making the classic "cup & handle"NASDAQ:COIN could be starting a reversal. The MACD is been going up with the price which today broke above its 50 day MA but it still needs to make the breakout from the $252 resistance. Once that happens could be the start of a good uptrend.
The crypto exchange has had strong revenue and EPS growth, being 2021 its best year. One the first quarter, reported a +844.82% revenue grwoth. All this could be why is one of Ark Invest's favorites. AMEX:ARKK has a +3% allocation making the top 10 holdings of the ETF.
Still is a young stock so, is still very volatil. Always wait for confirmation and there are two key resistance levels that NASDAQ:COIN needs to break.
Time to Add Onto ARKK Position?ARKK appears to have regained bullish strength after rallying above a strong level of resistance now flipped into support. And looks to be currently consolidating on-top of it. All of these are very bullish signs.
Keep an eye on the start of the new week as ARKK has already confirmed a full body candle close above the key weekly support level. How it starts out of the gate this week will be key. If it begins Tuesday in the green, a quick 6-7% pump could happen to retest the upper resistance at around 134.75 - 137.35 approximately.
A long seems safe right now but it will be worth monitoring as the daily RSI is nothing to brag about currently. Tight stop loss at 127.67 would be wise.
Opening (IRA): ARKK August 20th 110 Short Put... for a 1.95/contract credit.
Comments: One of the few remaining exchange-traded funds in my options highly liquid list with 30-day implied greater than 35%. (The others are MJ, XBI, and EWZ). Here, selling the 16; 1.80% ROC as a function of notional risk.
What Happens From Here Will Be CRUCIAL for Bitcoin (BTC)BTC observed a Wyckoff's Spring * action, bullish, within the consolidation zone.
And with ARKK** is trending higher, we expect to see more demand from here.
If this bullish observation continues, we potentially see BTC breaks above current consolidation zone, back into Mark Up Phase.
Thus, upcoming trading days are crucial to BTC.
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* Spring denotes weak supply on the market, where price breaks below support but the supply did not sustain the move to mark price lower.
** ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) holds emerging technology company stocks, in line with Bitcoin's underlying technology.
ARKK when plotted on the chart, trades in line and leads BTC.
ARKK is trending upwards, is positive for BTC.
Let's watch ARKK closely! 👀ARKK is following the same movement seen on several tech stocks today: A possible double top in the 30min, indicating a brief exhaustion, but this is expected.
The 119.15 is the pivot we must see broken as soon as possible. This will lead to a greater upside movement in larger timeframes.
The red line is not going to be an easy foe for ARKK, as it seems the market remembers this price level pretty well. Yes, we also have a small divergence on the RSI, which could make ARKK fall a little tomorrow, but this wasn’t confirmed yet.
On the other hand, if ARKK breaks the resistances mentioned, the 130 is our next stop!
Let’s wait for more confirmation on ARKK!
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See you soon,
Melissa.
HYPER GROWTH IS BACK IN TOWN, CATHIE WOOD IS IN THE ROCKET SHIPHyper growth has crashed by over 35%, inflation data is not as bad as everyone thinks, 10 year treasuries have pulled back, commodity prices have dropped massively, lumber has dropped from 1700 to 1100, fed likes to print money BRRRRRRRRR. This is not financial advice and I'm not advertising the buy or sale of ARKK etf or its holdings.
Trading Plan for the breakout on ARKK - Statistical ApproachToday, we will explain our trading idea on ARKK.
What are we observing right now? The price is inside a descending Wedge pattern (106 days correction), and we are observing possible signs of a breakout happening soon. We can see a clear support zone that the price could not break, so we expect a bullish movement towards the next resistance zone at least.
How are we planning to trade this movement? We are waiting for 4 daily candlesticks, at least on the edge of the wedge pattern. (Currently 3) After that, we will set pending orders above the structure, and we will wait for a new local high for an execution. The optimal scenario would be to see a retest of the white curve.
Ok, but why did we chose 4 daily candlesticks and not 7 or 9? Good question, smart guy. Let's take a look at the next chart
Here we have defined ALL the corrective patterns that were ABC clear structures with a duration higher than 50 days at All-time highs level. The conclusion is that after we have the first breakout attempt, we observe a 4 to 8 days correction (daily candlesticks on the edge of the broken pattern) and a new local high as an execution level has been working really well to provide Great setups with huge risk rewards ratio. OF COURSE, the setup failed several times, this is a statistical approach to taking setups, and we should be open to a new fail here. However, our approach is taking good bets in terms of Win rate and R/R ratio. (this means taking several setups to start observing an edge)
The risk we are planning to take on this setup is 1% of our setup, move our stop loss to Break-Even on the next resistance zone, and we will look for a 1 : 10 R/R
Thanks for reading!
Is Coinbase undervalued?For Coinbase as a company, we should take a different perspective when evaluating its fair value. I don't think we can use Bitcoin price as a benchmark or surrogate marker of its value. Given the interests in crypto trading, the potential of Coinbase and similar exchanges is huge.
Looking back at almost 2 months' price movement of Coinbase, it seems to be trying to find the floor to pivot and rebound. Volume wise has fizzled, may indicate less volatility.
Immediately still downtrend until the price can stay above last Friday's low.
If it can break above 230, there's a chance for it to reach next resistance around 245-250 range. If price breaks below last Friday's low 228, immediate support at 224 (in hourly chart) or even challenge previous low at 208.
The Week Ahead: ARKK, ARKG, GDXJ, MJ, XBI, XLE, X, CLF, SAVE, FHere's where the premium was at as of Friday's close:
Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds With 30-Day Implied >20%:
IWM (1/23)
Comments: I have quite a bit of IWM on here, but my order of preference is broad market, then sector, then single name, so am comfortable with adding if we get both weakness and a pop in volatility. IWM/RUT has been fairly rangebound, so it's worthwhile to pop open a chart and see where the bottom of the range is and where any puts you sell are relative to the range between 210 and 235.
Sector Exchange-Traded Funds With 30-Day Implied > 35%:
ARKK (31/45)
ARKG (18/41)
GDXJ (0/40)
MJ (7/40)
XBI (12/38)
XLE (2/36)
Comments: I've got ARKK, ARKG, and MJ July monthlies on, so I may look to add some GDXJ, even though its implied volatility is literally at the bottom of the 52-week range (which is still afflicted by the 2020 pandemic range, so implied volatility rank/percentile aren't all that helpful here), and it isn't exactly weak relative to where it's been. MJ and XBI are currently the most weak out of the group, so I'm personally leaning toward putting on some more XBI, having taken have a June trade last week.
Single Name With 30-Day >50% That Do Not Have Earnings Before Contract Expiry:
X (Steel) (9/74)
CLF (Basic Materials) (18/73)
SAVE (Airlines) (2/55)
F (Autos) (19/55)
OXY (Oil and Gas) (8/53)
SABR (Airlines; Technology) (25/51)
MRO (Oil and Gas) (0/50)
Comments: Given the slim pickings in the broad market and exchange-traded funds space, I've made a list of options highly liquid single name to potentially play while I wait for broad market or sector volatility to return. This list isn't exhaustive, and I've culled out a ton of meme names that have juicy implied volatility but are more likely to become a headache because they're (ironically) too volatile or they're in a space where they're more likely to blow up in my face (e.g., biopharma research and development, crypto).
Pictured here is an X July 16th 22 Short Put (20 delta), paying .74/contract as of Friday close, 3.48% ROC at max/27.6% annualized. As you can see, that play is somewhat close to price action of late, so I'd only put that play on if you're comfortable with potentially taking assignment at 22 and then wheeling it from there. Alternatively, opt for a setup that is consistent with any directional assumption you have as to where U.S. Steel goes from here and that takes advantage of the high implied here.
On Zoom, the Corrective Pattern is absolutely finished We have been watching closely zoom for the last weeks looking for the breakout of the massive corrective pattern we are observing right now. After 225 days, the price has tested both sides of the structure, mainly the lower zone. Based on that, we are getting ready for the breakout.
Generally speaking, it is not a good idea to trade a direct breakout of these massive structures. The main reason is that fake-outs are common, and if you are a breakout trader, one of your objectives is to avoid low-quality scenarios as much as you can. For that reason, we have defined a bullish scenario we will be waiting for.
Bullish Scenario: If we observe a breakout of the corrective pattern, we will be waiting for a retest of the broken structure or the resistance level. The formation we want to see must be formed at least for 5 daily candlesticks. Finally, we will trade, as you can see on the EXPLANATION chart. From there, we can aim at two targets, first the next resistance zone and second the previous ATH zone.
Expected Time: If everything goes as expected, we may see a 20 days movement towards the first resistance zone and 50 days towards the new ATH (take these two numbers as approximations)
Bearish Scenario: If the price cannot break the corrective pattern and the resistance zone, we may see a bearish movement towards the next support zone, around 250 - 240. We are not interested in developing any short setups here.
Thanks for reading; feel free to share your view or trading plan in the comments!