Focus on demand in semiconductors, NVDA leading the way.While there are minor disputes among smaller semiconductor firms, the real focus should be on demand. NVDA is making tremendous strides in the data center space. My long-term target is around $171, but in the short term, we need a weekly close above $140.76 for confirmation. I'm a buyer near $141, with $136.15 standing out as the most attractive entry point in the support zone. Falling below this level could lead to short-term frustration.
ARM
(ARM) arm holdings plcArm semiconductors looks like real prospect for long term investment strategy based investors similar to NVidia, intel, and major computer companies. I kind of figured this would happened and yet I stayed away from stocks in favor of cryptocurrency. ARM is a strong contendor for future gains up to $1000 (*speculation) and stock splits followed by gains and stock splits and the future is endless.
Is SMCI a buy? SMCI has lagged NVDA and many other semis.
Were now approaching a critical area...its make or break!
positive Daily divergence provides some hopes that were close to a near term bounce however after today semiconductor selloff the whole complex was shattered.
The fact that SMCI remained green while NVDA was down 10% should be a small win in itself...
The question is can it hold and build on this?
I do think its better positioned for a long than most semis.
No confirmed technical breakdown has occurred yet
ARM, Eyeing a bounce short termLooking at the ARM chart on the daily, we have multiple factors that indicate a probable short term bounce. We have bottoming tail on the daily, We've just kissed a long term trendline, we are at the 200 SMA and EMA, The RSI is at 30. We've had two weeks of relentless selling and we are now down 41% from the highs. Eyes we be looking for a short term bounce.
ARM 1D MA50 rejection and buy for $160.00Arm Holdings (ARM) got rejected yesterday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after recovering it following a full month of trading below it. As the price got outside its long-term Buy Zone (green), this pull-back might be the last opportunity to buy the stock before Resistance 1 is tested. Our Target is marginally below it at $160.00.
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ARM Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ARM Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $8.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ARM - Momentum trade SMCI set some wild fire across all Semi-names. There will many sympathy plays across this sector this week, IMO.
I caught the ARM Short squeeze last week from 120 to 160. and I got few more commons when it dipped.
Below is the trade plan for commons, If you are trading options, have a tight stop loss.
Long between 137-145
Stop Loss - 130
Target #1 154
Target #2 172
Target #3 186, after a pullback.
ARM: Pull-back before next leg-upI fundamentally bullish on this company and think it might be a potential true-market leader in next market up-trend (if we see one in coming years).
Structurally speaking, I may see full first impulsive structure completed with today's burst into the top border resistance zone for the final wave (c.v of 1).
If this structure will prove to be correct, classical support area for potential correction: 61-55 area.
If price follows through to the upside and closes above todays highs, then next resistance level is: 75-81 zone. Moving above 81 will be a sign to re-consider suggested price structure.
Thank you for your attention!
ARM Holdings Surges Over 45% on Strong AI Chip ForecastsIn a staggering surge, Arm Holdings ( NASDAQ:ARM ), the British tech giant famed for its semiconductor designs, witnessed a remarkable uptick of over 45% in its stock value on Thursday. This meteoric rise was propelled by bullish forecasts, as clientele gear up to fashion cutting-edge chips tailored for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. With the quest for AI-powered devices intensifying, Arm stands at the forefront, poised to reap the rewards of this burgeoning market.
Embracing the AI Revolution
Arm's ascent stems from its pivotal role in furnishing blueprints and intellectual property crucial for crafting the chips omnipresent in today's mobile phones, notably Apple's iconic devices. The company's trajectory has been deeply intertwined with the surge in demand for AI-centric technologies, with customers increasingly gravitating towards Arm's offerings to fuel their innovation in this domain.
Unveiling a Paradigm Shift
Arm's executives unveiled a strategic shift, highlighting the surge in clientele opting for Arm-based central processors in tandem with Nvidia's chips for AI-centric endeavors in data centers. Moreover, Arm's foray into developing AI-enabled laptops and smartphones underscores its commitment to pioneering advancements in consumer electronics. By leveraging its unique model of creating and licensing semiconductor designs, Arm has managed to scale rapidly while maintaining a lean operational footprint.
Supercharging Growth Through AI
Investment pundits underscore the symbiotic relationship between Arm and the AI boom, emphasizing how the company's revenue streams are poised for exponential growth fueled by the AI revolution. Notably, Arm's ability to deliver substantial royalty and licensing revenue reflects its adaptability and resilience in harnessing emerging technological trends.
Market Dynamics and Valuation
Amidst this fervor, market dynamics come into play, with Arm's valuation reflecting its elevated standing in the tech landscape. Trading at 56.46 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, Arm's valuation surpasses that of industry stalwarts like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. However, its low-float status renders it susceptible to pronounced market fluctuations, underscoring the need for cautious investor scrutiny amidst this period of exuberance.
In essence, Arm Holdings' ( NASDAQ:ARM ) remarkable surge epitomizes the symbiotic relationship between technological innovation and market dynamism, as it harnesses the power of AI to propel itself into uncharted territories of growth and prosperity.
🔥 ARM IPO: Worth the hype? Should I chase? What even is it?ARM DD:
Before you read this, understand that trying to buy IPOs when they begin trading isn't guaranteed and if you market buy, you will get roasted. It's not good to chase IPOs. No matter if this is the next NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:TSLA and NASDAQ:AMZN combined, do not chase and only make wise and calculated decisions while trading.
I've been waiting for this IPO for a while. It's finally here. It might be the most over anticipated IPO in a while. Trade carefully. Do not chase blindly. Have a plan. Trade the plan. If it doesn't come, move on.
If you learn something or want to trade with me, give me a follow & join my community. Thanks.
IPO valued @ $55B.
Around $51 per share.
They are only releasing 9% of the total shares to the public. So it has a tiny float.
SoftBank is the owner, they bought ARM 7 years ago.
The floor for me is 40B USD valuation. Meaning, around $38.50 is support. Where did I get that number? NVDA was closing on buying ARM for 40B USD in 2020.
NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:INTC , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , TSM, Samsung, are all interested in investing in ARM.
What does ARM do?
ARM is not a chip manufacturer.
ARM designs chips & system processors & holds patents to chips and they license their technology to other big tech like AAPL, NVDA. Hence, NVDA wanted to buy them for 40B USD.
THE POSITIVES:
SoftBank bought out someone's 25% stake in ARM recently. For 16B USD. That puts it at a FWB:64B valuation in their eyes. That means the owner of ARM expects ARM to surpass 64B USD.
NVDA CEO loves ARM, but NVDA failed to acquire it.
NVDA CEO has been selling NVDA. Around 150k shares this year. Last sale 14M USD on 9/11/23. IMO he's freeing up to buy ARM @ IPO. Remember SoftBank is a 90% owner. Everyone who wants it gets it at IPO. Yes, even NVDA CEO.
The float is tiny, and asset managers .
NYSE:TSM expressed interest of 100M USD investment
This might be the most hyped IPO in a while.
THE NEGATIVES:
SoftBank is a known dumper.
SoftBank bought ARM in 2016 for $32B. They tried flipping it in 2020 for 40B USD to NVDA. So they were happy with a 8B flip USD in 4 years. Sus. Shows signs that if ARM does well, they'll unload.
Because SoftBank are known dumpers, once they dump one time, investors will get shook.
Their net income is low. Under 550M.
Their revenue is around $2.7B.
Their net income dropped YoY.
Again, I will evaluate if I'm buying this and post my entries/ exits in my community. Welcome to join.
Stay tuned.
ARM IPO- big price for questionable growthARM made .54 eps in 2022 and .51 eps in 2023. at 51 cents eps, its 124 PE.
Revenue per share current is 2.60 revenue per share, giving a price to sales over 20 PS.
Its unclear if ARM is growing sales and earnings at a rate that justifies the current premium.
Possible multiples examples:
if pe goes to:
20pe x .51 = 10.20
30pe x .51 =15.30
40pe x .51= 20.40
so clearly there is some high growth rate implied at the current price.
Implied growth rate is in the 30% to 60 % annual growth range.
If its not a grower, is it priced as a tech hedge? in case other firms buy it?
From a value and growth investor perspective, the math doesnt add up.
Secured +10% on ARM, kept under 1/2 position. ⚠️ LOW FLOATERDrop a like and follow to show your support! Thanks.
For bulls and bears alike, remember this is a LOW FLOAT. If you are shorting this stock when shares are available to borrow, remember it has a 9.3% float, is the most anticipated IPO in a while, and has clients like NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:INTC NYSE:TSM and the list goes on.
That being said, if I see +10% in 10 minutes, I must sell at least 1/2 my position. Got in @ 55.XX, out at 61.XX right when I saw the 9% and 10% print.
If it goes to 100, 200, 300, I really wouldn't care because I followed my rules.
Good luck trading. Remember to create a plan and follow it. That's the only way you'll be a consistent trader.
When there's not enough data, you can use a smaller time frame for reference.
Example:
Welcome to join my community. Link below.
ARM: Be careful chasing hot IPOs.NASDAQ:ARM see a lot of FOMO here..
Remember:
Don't market buy. They will fill your order as high as possible.
Don't FOMO buy. Don't force a trade.
SoftBank is a dumper. They tried dumping ARM in 2020 for a +25% gain to $NVDA. Let that sink in.
Also, don't short it. You might get roasted.
SoftBank bought 25% stake at 64B valuation recently. That means that should serve as a decent floor. The other floor is 40B which NASDAQ:NVDA would scoop up I imagine.
Follow for more tips & like this post. Your support is appreciated.
AMD. A big bagrain or a big fraud?Yesterday we´ve probably seen one of the best daily performance from AMD shares in company history. Why is that? Licensing agreement with the chinese. The chinese will be able to develop their own server SoC with a cooperation and based on AMD technologies. Means, they will develop their very own version ot the latest "Opteron" generation and pay to AMD for it.
It is not huge only for AMD, it can be huge for the whole sector. There is someone who´s talking about start licensing the GPU technology as well and, based on ARM Holding experience, that wouldn´t be a bad idea at all.
If happens, this will bring the chip makers to a new stage of competence for market share: the fight for the ending client would lay on the shoulders of license aquirees while a hypotetical AMD, Intel and else may surely leave all or big part of manufactoring operations and concentrate on high value-added R&D. AMD is not the first one to do it and not the biggest, and not the most advanced. But it is the chance for AMD itself to escape from a deadly trap while others haven´t followed the path. Capturing a solid piece of this market will be more than enought for AMD to come back to a solid profitability, recovering strong business model and availability to design a long-term strategy.
Which are the bad points? If AMDs experiment with the chinese show the path is good, Intel is bigger than AMD. AMD arrived first but remember what happened with K8 CPUs when Intel took the Core2Duo family out of the hat. If I were AMD, I´d start securing as much long-term contracts as possible before the others will realise the idea is good. If they secure at least 3-4 more licensing contracts all over the world, it is a strong, solid beginning. Tune your Twitter to news from AMD and Intel, it can be busy.
Second point. Not far away from now, we´ve already seen some ineficcient chinese enterprise to bankrupt. The main question here is: what is THATIC? I recognize, I googled it for 10 minutes and could only find some unconfirmed relationship to China Academy of Sciences (CAS) or Dawning Information Industry. If that´s the case, AMD is in good hands. But for now, the whole licensing agreement looks rather a desperate move. At 2.60 per share you can take a risk. But at 4 per share.... And also that number, 293 million USD in cash. Not trully enough for the whole bunch and complete support on AMD server technologies, right?
Third question, what the US Government will think? There was no reaction for now, probably, because of the second point. But if the deal starts becoming a crude reality and the Gov will find itself in a situation when the rest of manufactorers, specially, Intel, will want to follow the path, AMD may face serious problems which will require quick and severe actions.
Technical analysis confirms: 4-5 figures per share has been a massive frontier and critical level for AMD shares since always. Yesterday, it got rid of weekly 200 MA and WMA (on chart) but stopped at 3.99 and I don´t think that´s coincidence. AMD still has a lot to deliver.
As said before, tune your Twitter to AMD, follow the evolution of the company and check Q2, Q3 and Q4 reports. If the shares start climbing little by little, go over and secure 5 figures per share, and the results are solid, and we get more information about the chinese partner, jump in. If the quote gets stuck somewhere in 3-5 range, this is a patience zone and good option for these who bought at 1.90-2.50 to secure partial profits.