✅TRADING ONE PAIR ONLY✅
“TO TRADE, OR NOT TO TRADE A SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR. THAT IS THE QUESTION…”
🧿MULTIPLE CURRENCY PAIRS
Easier to recover from losses on a given currency pair
Less likely to experience not seeing any setups for a whole day/week
Better understanding of pair correlations required
Can be more distracting
🧿SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR
No risk of trading correlated pairs
Better ability to focus
Feeling of understanding the price movements more
Can be a struggle to stick to ONE pair
Feeling of missing out when big moves happen on other pairs
✅HOW TO TRADE SINGLE CURRENCY PAIR:
🔲Step 1: Pick Your Currency Pair
▪️Is the pair active when I intend to trade it?
Even though the Foreign Exchange market is open 24/5, some pairs may be less traded at some specific times. Refer to "When To Trade Forex To Maximize Your Lifestyle & Profit?"
▪️Do you understand the currency pair you want to trade?
If you trade a pair with your country's currency, your chances of understanding how the price of the pair fluctuates might be higher. You will know what's going on and might even be able to know where the currency is heading (we are talking of fundamental analysis here...).
▪️Is the pair too or not enough volatile for you?
Don't be surprised to see big swings in GBP/JPY or GBP/NZD because those pairs are considered more volatile. Some traders like it because the profits usually come quickly, but stopped out trades can be more frequent.On the other hand, a pair like USD/CNY will have some inactivity periods and that might be frustrating.
🔲Step 2: Plan Your Trading
Good strategies are abstract and should work on any currency pair, however, since you have decided to trade one pair only, you have the privilege of tailoring you strategy to the particular pair, taking into the account it’s volatility, average likelihood of fakeouts vs breakouts, how trending it is on average etc..
🔲Step 3: Stay Consistent
Stick to the plan for at least a month. You might start the month feeling excited. You might get discouraged because you've taken too many or too few trades two weeks in.No one cares. Stick to your decision.At the end of the month, two things will happen:
1. You'll have built more confidence in your ability to remain consistent.
2. You'll have performed an experiment and will be able to say what works vs. what doesn't.
Those are two great things for someone who's looking to grow as a Forex trader.
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Articles
🔳TOP 7 INDICATORS TO USE🔳
◻️MACD(Moving Average Convergence/Divergence)
Traders use MACD to identify changes in the direction or strength of the asset’s price trend. MACD can seem complicated at first glance, because it relies on additional statistical concepts such as the exponential moving average (EMA). But fundamentally, MACD helps traders detect when the recent momentum in an asset’s price may signal a change in its underlying trend. This can help traders decide when to enter, add to, or exit a position.MACD is a lagging indicator. After all, all the data used in MACD is based on the historical price action of the asset. Because it is based on historical data, it must necessarily lag the price. However, some traders use MACD histograms to predict when a change in trend will occur.
◻️VWAP(Volume-Weighted Average Price)
The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is a measurement that shows the average price of a security, adjusted for its volume. It is calculated during a specific trading session by taking the total dollar value of trading in the security and dividing it by the volume of trades. The formula for calculating VWAP is cumulative typical price x volume divided by cumulative volume. VWAP gives traders a smoothed-out indication of a security’s price (adjusted for volume) over time. It is used by institutional traders to ensure that their trades do not move the price of the security they are trying to buy or sell too extremely.
◻️EMA(Exponential Moving Average)
An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. The exponential moving average is also referred to as the exponentially weighted moving average. An exponentially weighted moving average reacts more significantly to recent price changes than a simple moving average simple moving average (SMA), which applies an equal weight to all observations in the period.
◻️THE FOUR TYPES OF EMA:
▪️9-EMA is use for short term trading
▪️21-EMA is used for day trading
▪️50-EMA is used for analysis
▪️200-EMA is used for long term view
◻️RSI(Relative Strength Index)
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to evaluate overvalued or undervalued conditions in the price of that security. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100.Generally, when the RSI indicator crosses 30 on the RSI chart, it is a bullish sign and when it crosses 70, it is a bearish sign. Put another way, one can interpret that RSI values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued. It may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective price pullback. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition. Overbought refers to a security that trades at a price level above its true (or intrinsic) value. That means that it's priced above where it should be, according to practitioners of either technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Traders who see indications that a security is overbought may expect a price correction or trend reversal. Therefore, they may sell the security.
Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️
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The Cantillon Effect And The Working ClassThe Cantillon effect is an economic phenomenon that
disproportionately affects the working class. It's named after the 18th century French economist Richard Cantillon, who first studied the differences in income distribution between the wealthiest and poorest parts of society. In this blog post, we'll be exploring how the Cantillon effect works, and how it impacts the working class. Keep reading to learn more.
Introduction to the Cantillon Effect
The Cantillon Effect is an economic concept that explains how money creation benefits those at the beginning of the money supply chain and harms those at the end. It is an example of how the economy is rigged to work in favor of some, while leaving others behind. The new money created gives those at the top access to resources before new money reaches everyone else. They use this new money to purchase assets, goods, and services before prices increase. This furthers a cycle of wealth inequality, since those with new money get wealthier faster than those without. Understanding the Cantillon Effect is essential for anyone looking to create a more equitable and prosperous economy for all.
It is an example of how the economy is designed to favor those with access to monetary policy decisions, such as banks and large corporations. This means wages for everyday workers remain stagnant while those at the top, with influence and resources, reap the rewards of increased wages and greater purchasing power. So while wages may stay the same, prices of goods and services are constantly increasing - ensuring more money flows to those in charge. The result is an economy that is severely rigged in favor of those who have access to the levers of power, leaving everyday workers struggling to make ends meet.
This effect can be seen in the widening wealth gap between the wealthy and poor, as well as the increasing income inequality in many countries around the world Additionally, the economy is heavily biased towards the wealthy, as evidenced by the massive corporate tax cuts and government bailouts that are disproportionally directed to large businesses and the affluent. This allows them to systematically hoard money while wages stagnate and regular people struggle to make ends meet. The result is an unfair system that benefits a small number of people while impoverishing countless others. It's time we take action and make sure the economy works for everyone, regardless of wealth and privilege.
Analyzing the Distributional Impact of the Cantillon Effect
The Cantillon Effect is the redistribution of wealth from lower to upper income brackets through inflation and other economic policies. It works like a hidden tax on earnings, taking purchasing power away from lower-income communities and giving it back to the wealthy through an ever-widening economic gap. This uneven playing field is created by policies such as high interest rates and quantitative easing that are designed to benefit those with investments and business interests. By implementing these strategies, the government is essentially rigging the game in favor of those with earnings and investments, while leaving those with less earnings behind. This creates an unbalanced economy that works for some, but not for others.
It can be seen as a regressive tax, as it disproportionately impacts lower-income individuals and families more than those with higher incomes. This is an effort to explain how the economy is rigged to work for some and not others. Without a basic understanding of how the economic processes are designed, those of lower income are at a disadvantage since they lack the resources necessary to make their voices heard in the power structures that determine economic outcomes. Income inequality has widened across the country, leaving many people feeling like they don't have a fair chance to succeed in today's economy. Unfortunately, this rigged system works against those who are already at a disadvantage due to limited resources and opportunity.
By analyzing the distributional impacts of this effect, we can gain a better understanding of how the economy is rigged to benefit some and not others Finally, it is clear that the working class has been severely affected by the fact that the economy is designed to work for some and not others. Through analyzing the distributional impacts of this effect, we can gain a better understanding of how the system is rigged and how to address it. It is essential that working people have access to fair, equitable economic opportunities and that we work together to ensure that this system is working for everyone.
Who Benefits from the Cantillon Effect?
The Cantillon Effect is a phenomenon that benefits those with access to new money before it reaches the general population. This is especially true when it comes to working class people, who usually struggle to keep their heads above water. Through this effect, individuals and businesses that are among the first to receive new money from a central bank’s stimulus package can benefit significantly before the working class ever sees any of it. This means the working class is essentially locked out of the opportunity to utilize new money to its full potential, essentially rigging the economy in favor of those with access to new money first.
Historically, this has been the wealthy elite, who are able to use their money and influence to acquire more resources faster than others. This unequal system creates losers and winners, with those who have access to more money and resources having an undeniable advantage over those who don't. The result is an economy that works in favor of the wealthy elite, leaving the rest of us struggling for scraps. Not only does this create a gap between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’, but it also limits economic opportunities as resources become increasingly concentrated in fewer hands. It’s clear that this system of economic inequality needs to be addressed in order to create a fairer economy that works for everyone.
The Cantillon Effect is a major factor in income inequality, as those with the most money are able to benefit from price changes before everyone else does
Next, it is important to recognize that the losers in the economic rig are those without easy access to capital or privileged information. The Cantillon Effect is a prime example of how those with the most money can benefit from capital before everyone else does and this serves to create an even larger gap in income inequality. It is within our power to change this system that so unfairly works for some and not others and it is worth fighting for a system where everyone has an equal chance at success.
The Working Class and Its Inequitable Access to Resources
The working class, particularly low-income and minority groups, often lack access to resources such as quality education and healthcare, leading to economic instability and inequality. This lack of access to resources, combined with less job security and decreased wages, creates a working environment that prevents working class people from achieving economic stability and success. To make matters worse, many working class individuals are also hindered by government policies that have been crafted to favor the wealthy. This is why the current economy is often referred to as "rigged," working for some while leaving others behind. It is our collective responsibility to ensure the working class has equal access to the same resources as wealthier individuals so they can create a more financially secure future.
This is compounded by the unequal distribution of wealth amongst different classes, as those in the upper classes have more resources to acquire and increase their wealth. While it may appear that winners consistently come out on top, the reality is that their success is heavily influenced by the economic systems that are designed to work in their favor. For example, wealthy individuals can access tax incentives and investments which are not available to those with lower incomes. Furthermore, those with more money can influence the outcome of legislation, creating more winners and, unfortunately, more losers. It's a rigged system that keeps people in different financial classes divided and ensures that some individuals have access to more opportunities than others.
In order to fix this injustice, policies should be enacted that support and empower those of lower income levels so that they can gain access to the same opportunities and resources available to the wealthy few Also, earnings should be made more equitable by instituting a better minimum wage, reducing earnings inequality and providing more training, education and job opportunities. These policies have the potential to create a more level playing field in the economy where individuals of all income levels have the same chances of success, which will ultimately benefit everyone.
How Governments Are Failing to Redress Inequality
Governments around the world are failing to implement policies that would promote economic equality and reduce inequality. This is especially tragic, considering working class families are the ones that suffer the most. The way our economy is currently set up, working class individuals lack the opportunity to ever rise up and gain economic security. Those with money, however, can benefit from tax breaks, investment opportunities, and other benefits that are often denied to working-class citizens. This blatant injustice needs to be addressed in order for working-class families to have a chance at achieving a comfortable financial future.
This includes inadequate levels of taxation for wealthy individuals, as well as failing to enact taxes on capital gains and other investments. To add to this, inflation plays a vital role in how the economy is rigged in favor of the wealthy. Through inflation, the value of money decreases, making it harder for people to stay afloat and even harder for those with less money to maintain their standard of living. As inflation continues to devalue money, those at the top are able to remain wealthier than those who are not as fortunate.
Furthermore, governments often favor large corporations through generous subsidies and tax breaks which further exacerbate the divide between the haves and the have-nots However, recessions are the most apparent example of how the economy is rigged to benefit some and not others. During recessions, large corporations are more likely to receive bailouts while those on the margins of society, who often have no savings or access to credit, face increasing unemployment, poverty and homelessness. Furthermore, governments often favor large corporations through generous subsidies and tax breaks which further exacerbate the divide between the haves and the have-nots. It's clear that our economic system is still broken and needs fundamental reform in order to create a fairer environment where everyone can prosper.
Moving Forward: Proposals for Change We need to address underlying issues in the economy such as inequality, corporate monopolies, and the lack of opportunities for those with lower incomes in order to create a fairer working environment for all. The working class are particularly affected by the power imbalances that exist in the economy, where their wages and working conditions can be heavily impacted by large corporations. This is further exacerbated by an unjust taxation system that favor's those in higher socioeconomic positions, creating even more inequality and unfairness. If we aim to create a just economy where all have an equal chance to succeed, we must address these issues head-on. Only then can we create a more equitable system that truly works for everyone.
We should focus on creating fair and equitable policies that are beneficial to everyone, regardless of income or background. Unfortunately, the current economic system is often designed to benefit those who already have money and new wealth creation opportunities. This means those with economic privilege and access to new money often continue to be the primary beneficiaries of financial resources, leaving those without money excluded from participating in new economic projects. With new policies and regulations that prioritize economic inclusion and justice, more people can benefit from new money creation opportunities, creating a more equitable economy.
We need to invest in education, job training, and other initiatives that help those at risk of being marginalized by the current economic system Additionally, inflation is another factor that works against those with lower incomes. As inflation rises, their money is worth less and less, making it difficult for them to afford even the most basic necessities. To combat this, policy changes need to be made to ensure inflation does not adversely affect those with lower incomes. We also need to invest in education, job training, and other initiatives that help those at risk of being marginalized by the current economic system. Only then can we create a fair and equitable economy that works for everyone.
In conclusion, the Cantillon effect is a complicated economic phenomenon that impacts the working class more than any other part of society, and results in a widening gap between the wealthiest and poorest individuals. It's important for us to understand this phenomenon and its implications, so that we can work towards more equitable economic policies in order to create a fairer and more prosperous society for all.
Articles sourced for this paper
Mainstream economists generally confine the discussion of the Richard Cantillon Effect to redistribution of wealth that occurs with a rise in the quantity of money. The Cantillon effect is the unequal shift in relative prices that results from changes in the money supply, which was first described by the 18th-century economist Richard Cantillon (who inspired political economists such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo).
The basic thrust of Richard Cantillons extensive analysis is that changes in money lead to changes in relative prices, which alter productive plans and lead to different fixed investment patterns, so that the new money changes the real economy, with winners and losers. In The Essay, the economist Richard Cantillon describes the economic phenomenon of changes in relative prices across various parts of the economy in response to changes in money supply. The Cantillon effect refers to an unequal distribution of the new money supply throughout the economy, which leads to different rates of growth in different parts of the economy.
The basic contours of the Cantillon effect, namely, some individuals having more purchasing power while others having less, are still at work in the same economy, if money creation channels allow them to do so. Cantons best-known idea, the eponymous Cantillon effect, describes the effects of the creation of money on the relative prices and inequality in wealth in society. In comparison, the Cantillon effect, the neglected classic theory on how money allocation affects personal wealth, is among the inequities of our present-day society. The Cantillon effect claims that the first recipients of new supplies of money are given an arbitrage opportunity, the ability to spend the money before prices rise. Changing the supply of money in the economy in order to manipulate relative price levels does not really change anything over the long term. In fact, even price-stabilized economies need injections of money to counteract deflationary effects from economic growth.
They are seeing asset prices rise, but prices are still falling across the rest of the economy, because that is happening just seconds after the Federal Reserve is clearly bloating up the money supply. Specific parties get the chance to spend the new paper money on goods and assets that do not have prices reflecting an increased money supply. In the modern economic context, Cantillons theory implies that banks and major institutional investors get access first to new supplies of money, invest them to earn returns, e.g., on stock markets or various risky financial products, and drive up the prices of assets in which they invest. Because the terms inflation and deflation refer to broad, economy-wide changes in prices, the name biflation is a bit misleading, since it does not necessarily refer to any increases or declines in the overall price level, but rather to changes in relative prices caused by changes in the supply of money and credit in various markets.
Cantillons own analysis also does not appear to incorporate Austrians own inescapable characteristics of booms and busts associated with the emergence of new money into credit markets; for Cantillon, all new money has a similar redistributive, unequal impact, regardless of whether it is spent in real economies or is introduced into the credit markets, which lowers interest rates.
Cited Sources
www.investopedia.com 0
www.spencertom.com 1
river.com 2
fee.org 3
mises.org 4
phemex.com 5
www.aier.org 6
www.promarket.org 7
cointelegraph.com 8
✳️TOP 3 RARE CHART PATTERNS✳️
📉CUP AND HANDLE PATTERN
A cup and handle is a technical chart pattern that resembles a cup and handle where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift.A cup and handle is considered a bullish signal extending an uptrend, and it is used to spot opportunities to go long. Technical traders using this indicator should place a stop buy order slightly above the upper trendline of the handle part of the pattern. There can be both bullish and bearish Cups and Handles.
📊DIAMOND PATTERN
The diamond pattern is a reversal indicator that signals the end of a bullish or bearish trend. It is most commonly found at the top of uptrends but may also form near the bottom of bearish trends. The bullish diamond pattern occurs after a strong downward move in price. It consists of two resistance levels that constrain previous retracements and two support levels that have constrained the downtrend. Also known as the diamond bottom pattern, the bullish diamond pattern signals a buying opportunity. Often it is the precursor for a bullish breakout. The Bearish Diamond Pattern, is the mirror opposite of the bullish one, even though it works on the same logic and it indicates the end of the uptrend.
📈SCALLOP PATTERN
A scallop chart pattern is a technical analysis pattern that signals a short-term continuation of a bullish trend.
It is created when prices make an upward-sloping curve that resembles the letter J on a price chart. That's why it's sometimes referred to as a J-shaped or J hook pattern.
During the scallop formation, prices move higher, retrace, and trade lower for a short period before reaching a new peak. This indicates a short-term weakness of the ongoing uptrend and indecision in the market as to whether the trend will continue or not. But if prices are able to hold above the retracement zone for a while, it implies a strong momentum behind the uptrend and a potential breakout of the resistance level. The pattern is considered complete when you see prices break out above the key resistance level and rally to a new high. Once the upward breakout occurs, it confirms the continuation of the prevailing uptrend and a positive outlook on the market for the near future.
There are both bearish and bullish Scallop Patterns and both can be used successfully.
📚FINAL REMARKS:
Though these patterns are somewhat rare, it is essential for an advanced trader to know about them and to know how to use them, because that knowledge might provide you the missing piece of the puzzle in a difficult market making the difference between a good day and bad day. Which is all that matters after all. So I recommend you to spend some time and learn about the obscure patterns and to make it your goal to find them or at least look for them to give your brain enough data to let it do it’s pattern recognition learning magic.
Thanks for reading bro, you are the best☺️
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Layer 0 Blockchains ExplainedHello everybody.
Today i will explain What is Layer Zero Blockchains and How it work
and whats the difference betweem L1 and L0 ?
Lets go...
First take a look at The Scalability Trilemma :
the scalability trilemma is a series of trade-offs between decentralization, speed/scalability, and security
that one must make when designing a blockchain and constructing rules for its on-chain governance.
Centralization = Increased Speed, Decreased Security & Censorship Resistance
Decentralization = Decreased Speed, Increased Security & Censorship Resistance
It is very difficult , if not impossible, to achieve perfect decentralization without compromising scalability, and vice versa.
This is especially true on a monolithic blockchain where all the critical functions like transaction execution, consensus and data availability
(the ability to verify that all the data from new blocks has been published) are managed by a single network,
increasing the likelihood of congestion and making it much more difficult to scale.
A workaround to the scalability trilemma is to delegate the primary responsibility for these 3 functions to different independent blockchains.
This design ensures that the execution chain can be optimized for handling high TPS dapps like a DEX or play-to-earn game without worrying about decentralization.
A second chain can then be optimized for decentralization and serve as a final consensus layer for the execution chain to enable withdrawals to and anchor its data.
When it comes to scalability, layer 0 networks can help blockchain scale by increasing transaction throughput.
While transaction speed is typically measured in terms of TPS (transactions per second), transaction throughput looks at the total number of transactions that a network can handle at one time.
The Problem with Layer 1s
As the demand for Dapps increases and more capital flows into the space to support development, we are beginning to see the growing pains of layer 1 networks as they struggle to meet the needs of developers and end users who have opposing views on whether dapps should prioritize scalability, security or decentralization.
Layer 1 networks are built with a monolithic architecture. This means that the execution, consensus and data availability layers are all functioning within a single blockchain network. This stacked design places a strain on the system and results in the need for blockchains to comprise decentralization for security, or scalability for decentralization.
In addition, the lack of control over the underlying infrastructure that dapp developers build on top of has also been a cause of much frustration. Rising gas fees on the Ethereum network make all ethereum dapps too expensive to use, while unexpected downtime on the Solana network similarly makes all dapps on Solana also go offline.
Dapp developers must also make compromises in how they design their dapps in order to remain compatible with these L1 networks, and lack the ability to explore different consensus mechanisms or to experiment freely with token incentive models because consensus is a primary function of the L1 infrastructure layer. The overdependence on L1’s and difficult tradeoffs imposed by the scalability trilemma can only be remedied by creating a new base infrastructure that empowers developers to launch their own independent blockchains that can be optimized for different aspects of the scalability trilemma.
This base infrastructure is called layer 0, and it is the single most important component for helping blockchains and decentralized applications achieve limitless scalability while maintaining the highest possible levels of decentralization and censorship resistance.
What is a Layer 0 Blockchain?
A layer 0 is a type of protocol that enables developers to launch multiple layer 1 blockchains that can be designed to each serve a specific purpose and cater to 1 or 2 dimensions of the scalability trilemma as opposed to all 3.
These L1 networks can also be made to communicate with each other such that the end user can have the experience of using one blockchain while they are in fact using multiple.
Layer 0 (L0) networks are equipped with software development tool kits or SDKs that allow developers to launch their own blockchains, known as Layer 1s or L1s or sidechains, that are connected to the L0 mainchain but operate independently.
Diffrences Between Layer-0 vs. layer-1 blockchains
You can see some main differences between L0 and L1 blockchains in picture below:'
I hope you enjoy this Article
please share me your opinion in comments.
Good Luck...
✳️FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS BASICS(Must Read)✳️
☸️WHAT ARE FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS
Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate the possible support and resistance levels where price could potentially reverse direction. The first thing you should know about the Fibonacci tool is that it works best when the market is trending.
The idea is to go long on a retracement at a Fibonacci support level when the market is trending UP.
And to go short on a retracement at a Fibonacci resistance level when the market is trending DOWN.
Fibonacci retracement levels are considered a predictive technical indicator since they attempt to identify where price may be in the future.
☸️FINDING FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS
In order to find these Fibonacci retracement levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing Highs and Swings Lows.
Then, for downtrends, click on the Swing High and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing Low.
For uptrends, do the opposite. Click on the Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High.
☸️HOW TO USE
Once you’ve done that, you will see the following levels appear: 23.6% , 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 76.4%. (The 50% one is not technically a Fib level but its still used by everyone)The idea is that the price will make a correction that will reverse at one of these levels. So all we need to do is watch the price action near these levels and look for the reversal patterns, like triple bottom, head and shoulders, narrowing wedge breakouts, etc…
Once the we see a confluence of the Fib level and the reversal pattern, we can just wait for the confirmation breakout and enter the trade on the pullback. EASY!👻
☸️WHY IT WORKS
Because of all the people who use the Fibonacci tool, those levels become self-fulfilling support and resistance levels.
If enough market participants believe that a retracement will occur near a Fibonacci retracement level and are waiting to open a position when the price reaches that level, then all those pending orders will impact the market price.
☸️IMPORANT REMINDER
One thing you should take note of is that price won’t always bounce from these levels. They should be looked at as areas of interest so as I wrote above, one can’t simply trade off these levels, but needs to employ reversal patterns with confirmation to increase the probability rate of one’s calls.
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⭕️WHAT IS A FALSE BREAKOUT❓
⭕️False-breakouts are exactly what they sound like: a breakout that failed to continue beyond a level, resulting in a ‘false’ breakout of that level. False breakout patterns are one of the most important price action trading patterns to learn, because a false-break is often a very strong clue that price might be changing direction or that a trend might be resuming soon.
⭕️A false-break of a level can be thought of as a ‘deception’ by the market, because it looks like price will breakout but then it quickly reverses, deceiving all those who took the ‘bait’ of the breakout. It’s often the case that amateurs will enter what looks like an ‘obvious’ breakout and then the professional’s will push the market back the other way
⭕️A false breakout is essentially a ‘contrarian’ move in the market that ‘flushes’ out those traders who may have entered on emotion, rather than logic and forward thinking.
⭕️Generally speaking, a false-breakout happens because amateur traders or those with ‘weak hands’ in the market will tend to enter the market only when it ‘feels safe’ to do so. This means, they tend to enter when a market is already quite extended in one direction (and it’s about ready to retrace) or they try to ‘predict’ a breakout from a key support or resistance level too early. Professional traders watch for these missteps by the amateurs, and the end result is a very good entry for them with a tight stop loss and huge risk reward potential.
⭕️It takes discipline and a bit of ‘gut feel’ to know when a false-break is likely to occur, and you can never really know ‘for sure’ until after one has formed. The important thing, is to know what they look like and how to trade them.
🛑Which we will discuss in the next article, If you like this one❗️
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HOW TO USE RSI⁉️
✳️What is the RSI Indicator
What is the RSI Indicator? The relative strength index is a market indicator that signals when the asset is over-bought or over-sold. This is a momentum-following indicator that measures how fast the price is moving and changing. The RSI uses different types of averages, but its primary purpose is to show whether a trend is strong or weak within a series of prices.
In general, a strong trend is indicated by values close to 100 while a bearish trend is often indicated by a value near 0.
✳️RSI Indicator Settings
The RSI has the standard setting. When you activate the indicator in any platform the defualt setting are 3 values. They are 6, 14 and 24. These are averages. The 30 and 70 value lines are calculated based on the lower and upper values and the middle lines is the oscillar which is a 14 period average. When the 14 period oscillator is above the 24 period is overbought and when the 14 period is below the 6 period is oversold.
✳️Opening Positions on RSI Signals
The main signal the RSI oscillator generates allows defining overbought and oversold price ranges. Although it is frequently used as a filter in systems where the main indicator is a trend one, it might be possible to try trading using RSI signals only. When indicator’s line goes above the level 70 or below the level 30, it signals that market is overbought/oversold, and it is necessary to wait for the next signal confirming a trend reversal.
✳️RSI Trendlines
Contrary to popular belief, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a leading indicator. This quality can be observed by using trendlines on the RSI chart and trading its break. When the RSI is rising, an upward trendline is drawn by connecting two or more lows and projecting the line into the future. Similarly, when the RSI is falling, a downward trendline is drawn by connecting two or more highs and projecting the line into the future. A break of an RSI trendline precedes an actual price reversal or continuation in the market. For instance, if the asset price breaks above a downward trendline, it is a signal that the price is about to edge upwards, either as a continuation of an uptrend or as a reversal of an existing downtrend in the market.
✳️RSI and Chart Patterns
The Relative Strength Index is one of the best technical indicators to complement raw price action signals delivered by candlestick patterns or line chart patterns. For instance, when a bullish candlestick, such as a pin bar, or a price chart pattern, such as a double bottom, occurs in a downtrend, a buy position can be opened when the RSI displays a reading of below 30 to imply oversold conditions.
✳️RSI Divergence
The Relative Strength Index also delivers divergence signals that could be a viable trading opportunity. A divergence occurs when the asset price and RSI do not move in the same direction. A positive (bullish) divergence occurs when the price is drifting lower, but the RSI is edging higher. This is a signal that the price may be heading towards a bottom and an upward reversal is about to happen. On the other hand, a negative (bearish) divergence occurs when the price is drifting higher, but the RSI is going lower. This is a signal that price may be heading towards a top and a downward reversal is about to happen.
✳️RSI and RVI
Both the RSI and the RVI(Relative Vigor Index) are oscillators, but their different qualities can help traders to pick out high-quality RSI trading opportunities in the market. Whereas the RSI focuses on price extremes (high and low), the computation of RVI seeks to relate closing prices to open prices. This means that the RVI has both positive and negative numbers, with the centreline being 0. The RVI gives information on the strength of price movement, with positive values indicating increasing momentum, whereas negative values denote decreasing momentum. The RSI is the best indicator to complement or qualify the signals delivered by the RVI, especially in trending markets. For instance, if the market is in an uptrend and the RVI delivers a bearish divergence signal (prices go higher whereas RVI goes lower). In this case, a retracement or a trend reversal will be confirmed if the RSI reading is above 70, which implies overbought trading conditions.
✳️Here is the list, though now at all exhausting of the ways to use RSI in your trading. I will add that I use it myself, even though you don’t see it on my charts for aesthetic reasons.
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See ya next time♻️
❗️THE BIGGEST LIE ABOUT RISK REWARD RATIO❗️
What is risk-reward ratio — and the biggest lie you’ve been told:
📚The risk-reward ratio (or risk return ratio) measures how much your potential reward (or return) is, for every dollar you risk.
📚For example:
If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:3, it means you’re risking $1 to potentially make $3. If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:5, it means you’re risking $1 to potentially make $5. You get my point.
⚠️Now, here’s the biggest lie you’ve been told about the risk reward ratio:
“You need a minimum of 1:2 risk reward ratio.”
This statement is incorrect! Because the risk-reward ratio is meaningless on its own.
📚Here’s an example:
Let’s say you have a risk reward ratio of 1:2 (for every trade you win, you make $2).
But, your winning rate is 20%. So out of 10 trades, you have 8 losing trades and 2 winners.
Let’s do the math…
Total Loss = $1 * 8 = -$8
Total Gain = $2 * 2 = $4
Net loss = -$4
By now I hope you understand the risk reward ratio by itself is a meaningless metric. Instead, you must combine your risk-reward ratio with your winning rate to know whether you’ll make money in the long run (otherwise known as your expectancy).
📍THEREFORE:
The key to success is the combination of the RR and Win Rate in such a fashion that yields a positive return.
📙Example:
🔘If your RR is 1:1 then you start making money with 51% win rate and above.
🔘If your RR is 1:1,5 then you start making money with 41% Win rate and above.
🔘If your RR is 1:2 then you start making money with 34% win rate and above.
🔴The higher the RR the lower is the breakeven Win Rate!
Hope You get the idea, guys.
Thanks for your time, see you in the next article😉
🟢PRICE ACTION SECRETS
🔴Multi-candle patterns are more reliable
The more candles a specific pattern contains, the more reliable it usually is. 3 candle patterns are better than single candle patterns. 30 candle patterns are usually better than 3 candle patterns. Patterns like head and shoulders, double and triple tops are among my favorites, exactly because of this reason. They consistently result in higher probability trades, which is what we’re all after. It doesn’t mean that a good pin bar setup won’t work, it just means there’s a higher probability of having these multi-candle setups resulting in a winning trade.
🟠Know where to place your stop loss
Knowing where to place an order is just the beginning. Where do you place your stop loss? Fixed pips stop loss levels are hardly a good approach since the market volatility can change and every trade should be looked at within the context of the recent market history.
🟢Always look for confluence
This is absolutely one of the most important secrets you have to know about. Confluence is everything.
So you’ve found a sweet price action setup. Great! Now make sure it has confluence, meaning that it coincides with other valid signals that support your trading idea.
🔵Tell a story of what happened
Every chart tells a story. It might be a story of clear direction or a story of messy back-and-forth battling between buyers and sellers. In a similar way, we can talk about clean price action vs messy price action. It is up to the trader to find the story and better understand what the market might do.
🟣Context is everything
Depending on where a price action setup occurs, you should interpret it differently. The same pin bar could be bullish or bearish, depending on if they show up at the bottom of a downtrend or top of an uptrend, respectively. Not all patterns are also worth taking if they are not preceded by the right price action and happen at the levels that are in one way or the other of significance.
🟤Identify key support & resistance zones
Support and resistance (or S&R for short) are terms used to denote areas where price reverses at its lowest point (support) and the highest point (resistance) on a chart. Often, these zones are “tested” multiple times as traders look for an increased buyer and seller activity around these levels. It’s important to note that support and resistance are usually not thin lines, but rather zones.
🔴The Bottom Line
The price action strategy is one of the most powerful tools for extracting money from the markets with predictability and manageable risks, but only if used correctly.
Thank you!
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What is the Triple Top Pattern❓
🟢What is the Triple Top Pattern?
A triple top chart pattern is a bearish reversal chart pattern that is formed after an uptrend.
This pattern is formed with three peaks above a support level/neckline.
The first peak is formed after a strong uptrend and then retrace back to the neckline.
The formation of this pattern is completed when the prices move back to the neckline after forming the third peak.
When the prices break through the neckline or the support level after forming three peaks then the bearish trend reversal is confirmed.
🟢Trading the Triple Top
There are some rules when trading the Triple Top chart pattern.
✔️Firstly one should identify the market phase whether it is in uptrend or downtrend. As the triple top is formed at the end of an uptrend, the prior trend should be an uptrend.
✔️Traders should spot if three rounding tops are forming.
✔️Traders should only enter the short position when the price breaks out from the support level or the neckline.
🟢Stop Loss
In the case of a Triple Top chart pattern, the stop loss should be placed at the third top of the pattern.
🟢Price Target
The price target should be equal to the distance between the neckline and the tops, also taking into the account the key levels below.
Thank you for reading!
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🌐What Is the U.S. Dollar Index❓
✅Why Be Interested?
The strong dollar has been getting a lot of attention lately. Some U.S. companies are blaming the strong U.S. dollar for lackluster earnings, while economists say it's helping the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against high inflation.
But how do you know when the dollar is strong or weak? That’s the job of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
☑️What Is the U.S. Dollar Index?
The U.S. Dollar Index is a market index benchmark used to measure the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other widely-traded international currencies.
The Federal Reserve established the dollar index in 1973 to track the value of the U.S. dollar. Two years earlier, President Richard Nixon had abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the value of the dollar to float freely in foreign exchange (forex) markets.
Since 1985, the dollar index has been calculated and maintained by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
☑️The Dollar Index History and Makeup
The formula for calculating the value of the U.S. Dollar Index includes the dollar’s relative value compared to a basket of foreign currencies. Initially, it included the Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, West German mark, French franc, Italian lira, Dutch guilder, and Belgian franc.
Following the creation of the euro in 1999, the number of currencies was reduced and the formula for the dollar index was adjusted. Today, the basket includes just six currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF).
✅How Is the U.S. Dollar Index Used?
The USDX allows traders and investors to monitor the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar relative to the six currencies included into the index's basket.
Investors also use the dollar index as a litmus test for U.S. economic performance, particularly when it comes to imports and exports. The more goods the U.S. exports, the more international demand there is for U.S. dollars to purchase those goods. When demand for the dollar is high, USDX rises.
☑️Dollar Index Shortcomings:
The weightings of the currencies used to calculate the index were based on the United States’ biggest trading partners in the 1970s.
As a result, its calculation doesn't include emerging market currencies, like the Mexican Peso (MXN) or commodity currencies. It also doesn't include China’s renminbi (CNY), even though China is now the largest U.S. trading partner by a wide margin.
Therefore, the index may be less useful as an economic measure than in previous decades.
✅What Makes the U.S. Dollar Strong?
A combination of higher inflation, the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign and a global search for yield have all contributed to the strong dollar.
A strong dollar means other global currencies have been relatively weak, which exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial market volatility.
📍In Conclusion:
The Dollar Index can be used as a gauge of the Dollar strength or weakness, and it’s futures can be used to profit form Dollar moves without betting on any individual Dollar currency pair which provides diversification. However, the Index is somewhat outdated which needs to be accounted for when using it.
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Keys to the PROFITABLE TRADING II. - Rejections and Price ActionIn the last chapter I showed you where to find some of the profitable entries. Today I want to add the price action element.
As I can see, there is not too popular to read price charts in the old school way but I think it is a bit pity. Price action has still the same potential as it used to have years and decades ago.
What to look at if you want to catch some kind of reversal at the prior point of Quick Rejection:
1. How quickly does the price move to the Rejection.
2. How confident does the move to the prior point look like.
Let't look at the examples on the chart:
A)
1. Very strong bar from the low of the swing but with longer upper tail - it looks like some kind of news or so. Not tradeable yet. Even though these moves tend to reverse to the mean.
2. After the prior strong move UP NO continuation. - Weak bar with no strenght to break the point of QR.
B) Much slower price action. The price qoes UP to the QR with several long upper tail bars.
1. Test with trend bar - NO Entry for me.
2. Nice Rejection - Nice one!
C) Price goes down quite slowly. Nice possibility for entry on reversal on bar 2.
D) Slow move UP with many upper tail bars.
1. Nice Entry which would finish in loss.
2. Very nice reentry - rejection on an upswing.
E) Price moves quickly UP. No continuation on the H of swing but for me NO trade.
F) After retest of prior bigger Rejections (Ff) and move UP there was a small rejection. Price tested this rejection and breaked UP strongly. Nice one.
G) NO Entry for me. Quick bearish price action.
H) NO Entry. Quick bullish price action.
I) Nice trade. A bit different than the two prior ones but very strong market structure.
- two rejections
- the market in a slow channel/trading range -> it is mostly good idea to trade against the break out of trading range
J) Very similar like the prior one.
K) This situation could look similar like the two prior ones. BUT watch the Price Action before test. STRONG BREAKOUT! NO ENTRY.
And so on...
Hope I clarified the principle, how a trader can wait for one of the best price action entry - testing prior UNTESTED point of Quick Rejection.
It really is that simple. One just need to read the price before and after the test of QR.
Price Action reading skills ARE important. Let's look at them in the following chapters!
Thanks for reading!
Any questions bellow, please.
Paul