Get started

ARZ

EMA, The correct way of usage - Part OneIn ARZ Trading System, we use multiple EMAs to analyze the market, as follows: 1. 200EMA, 100EMA, & 50EMA: Analyze the big picture (Major Structure). What is happening in higher timeframes? Long Term Bulls are stronger or Bears? 2. 20EMA, & 13EMA: Analyze the trading timeframe (minor structure). When to enter a trade and how to manage it? Short Term Bulls are stronger or Bears? Points to consider: 1. If an EMA is flat, it's not a valid S&R and we expect the price to break it easily. If not, it'll act as a strong S&R and we expect a strong movement after Pullback on it. 2. Based on the period of Flat EMA, the fluctuation around it could be big and bigger. It means, a flat 20EMA has a smaller range of fluctuation and shorter duration of ranging market around it, in compare to 200EMA which generally is wider and longer. 3. If EMAs are close to each other, cannot act as S&R. Only when there is some distance between them we can see them as S&R that can encapsulate price between them for a period of time. Here we see a strong bullish entry after hitting Flat 200EMA and 50% LTP. If cross and closed above all EMAs, a Pump is in hand! To be continued...
Education
by forexise
4
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part Two - PullbackOur core belief in ARZ Trading System: Trading, is to have an "expectation" from the market. If not, at any movement, the trader will be confused! If you look at the market and don't have any expectations, don't trade! In a future article, we will discuss what to do if an expectation is not met. In the case of Pullback, Price is not a ball, and EMA (or any other kind of S&R) is not a brick wall, especially in this case. If you put an EMA with any period, you'll see that the price crosses it easily most of the time! Then, it might come back as a shadow or a Fake Breakout. This means we should have a confirmation system for accepting or rejecting a Pullback. Otherwise, we'll always see a pullback shaping! Key Note 1: the higher the EMA period is, the longer will take for a pullback to shape! Key Note 2: Never trust and trade based on just one S&R level! Always have at least 2 or 3 levels to confirm your pullback. Either in a classical way by drawing trendlines and channels, or using any kind of Indicator as a means of dynamic S&R level. Key Note 3: a flat EMA is supposed to break easily! If not, it'll reject the price strongly. It means we have to wait for what will happen at a flat EMA to decide what to do next or expect the price will breach it (Please refer to article part one). Key Note 4: An ascending EMA can only act as a support, and a descending one acts as a resistance, not the other way! This is critical, believe me! Accepted ways of confirming a pullback in the ARZ System are: 1. Wait for a strong reversal pattern to shape at S&R. Never jump the gun! 2. Use a Volume Indicator like WAE (Waddah Attar Explosion) to confirm your entry at the S&R level. In this chart: - Pullback #1 (Bearish Engulfing) is not accepted, because it's just based on one S&R (13EMA) and the reversal pattern closed near the support of MC. - Pullback #2 (Bullish Engulfing) is strong but closed near 100EMA. Can't trust it. - Pullback #3 is awesome! This is a multi-candle Evening Star (Key Note 1&2), of 100EMA & Resistance of UTP & MC. - Pullback #4 is again good but has closed near the low of MC and is risky to take.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by forexise
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! (X Empire)In the heart of ARZ Trading System, is a candle that we call it MC (Master Candle). Any time that we see a candle that matches following description, most likely we will have a ranging market, with specified range of oscillations: 1. Candle itself is in the direction of the trend 2. Body of the next candle is within high to low of this candle 3. In the next candle(s), price could retrace most of the MC candle The main ranging area is the high to low of the MC candle. The exact size of this area, from high to upper is UTP (here $0.00062), and from low to lower is LTP (here $0.00011). This means price could fluctuate between these levels. If market is going to continue the trend (here is uptrend), price should break the UTP level and continue strongly.
Education
by forexise
Target levels (X Empire)The ARZ method is based on Wyckoff. The base (range) is MC which you can see in the chart. After breaking of this range, if price moves in one direction and stayed in the momentum (Bullish or Bearish with acceptable retracements), we expect the movement to continue on. Here we see price has achieved 3 of the targets which are: $0.00031, $0.00045, and $0.00059 . If movement continues, next 3 targets are: $0.00073, $0.00087, and $0.00101 . After reaching each one of these targets, we expect a retracement, and it can be strong, then no worry should come with it. And again, whatever happens, I'm holding tight to $X!
Long
by forexise