As London Market Closes, Gold Re-Gains ParityAs the London markets close, Gold regains much of the previous day's losses. The Heikin-Ashi chart shows another strong green candle. I expect there to be increased volatility tonight as Trump addresses the US Congress @ 9:10 PM EST.
Ashi
Natural Gas Gaps Down to Start the WeekNatural Gas gapped down at the opening of trading on Sunday and continued it's selloff. While this bearish move is overextended, there's no indication yet of any kind of retracement. The doji candle last Friday is now signaling more downside movement.
Gold Pauses and Hits Resistance Gold traded higher in the first part of the day on Monday and then sold off in the afternoon to close at 1258.8. The day ended with a doji candle that had penetrated the upper BollingerBand but then sold off and closed between the 2 upper BBs. Remember the red BB is set to 2 Standard Deviations and the cyan BB is set to 1.5 Standard Deviations.
Gold is also trading above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. All this supports a continued bullish outlook. This is also confirmed by the 3rd strong green Heikin-Ashi candle that you can see on the chart below. Until at least one of these changes, I will be maintaining my long positions.
Finally, if you look at the long term volume profile on the chart below, I've put a rectangle around the area on the left where it looks like price is trying to fill in. There's a low volume node at 1280 that could act as a magnet and then resistance for price.
Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposed only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Continues to Move HigherOn Friday, Gold continued the rally started on Thursday and closed @ 1258, up 7.4 points on the day. This confirms that move up to the target zone of 1277, which would be the 1:1 target of the Major and Minor A waves (see chart). I have also marked a few higher targets if strong buying comes into the market. The 1.272 fib extension is very common and that has nice confluence with the round number of 1300.
There are now 2 very strong Heikin-Ashi candles confirming the resumption of the bull move up.
The weekly Hiekin-Ashi chart shows 8 weeks of strong upward movement. However, it's clear that price is moving into the middle of the Ichimoku cloud. Let's see if price can break through this week, If it's rejected here, then we'll have to re-think our wave counts and re-assess our long positions.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closes Up 30 Cents and Stays Above Moving AveragesGold closed up 30 cents on the day to maintain it's position above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. It is also still above the extended closing price line (cyan). All in all, while Gold has been trading sideways for 2 weeks, it is still leaning to the bullish side.
The Heikin-Ashi chart for the day shows a red doji for Tuesday's trading day. This could be a warning that signals the next move will be down.
The volume profile chart clearly shows that Gold is trading under the upper value area on both short term and intermediate timeframes.
Finally, I want to call out the sideways price action that has occurred after price penetrated the upper Bollinger Band. This is usually an indication that the next move will be towards the opposite Bollinger Band. This is what I call a Coast to Coast trade.
While the first couple of charts show Gold as leaning to the Bullish side, the red doji and the Volume Profile and the BollingerBands seem to suggest that Gold as leaning to the Bearish side.
Overall, I'm maintaining a neutral outlook.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as advice on trading. All risk is your own.
Gold Moves Up but Can't Break Resistance on Light Trading DayGold rose 2.1 points on Monday in very light trading as the US markets were closed in honor of President's Day. Gold penetrated the 6 and 8 day moving averages at the low of the day but closed above them. The precious metal is trading sideways for now.
This sideways trading is even more pronounced on the Heikin-Ashi daily chart with 6 of the last 8 candles being Dojis. I've also added Ichimoku clouds to the chart. All the indicators are bullish, for now but I've seen Gold stay in these tight ranges for weeks at a time.
The final chart tonight is the Volume Profile view. You can see that price has tried to poke out of the upper value area on the short term profile (on the right) but has so far failed in those attempts. It's also interesting that the upper value area on the intermediate term volume profile is just on top of this so there seems to be a lot of pressure containing Gold's upward movement.
Disclaimer: This commentary is for educational purposes only and is not to be taken as trading advice.
Gold Trades Higher but Runs into ResistanceGold traded higher today, closing at 1240.1, up 5.8 points on the day. While the move was great for the bulls, the precious metal ran into strong resistant @1243.7, the highs from last week. If Gold continues to move up tomorrow, that will mark the 3rd consecutive week up and the 7th out of the last 8 weeks. Here's the weekly chart:
On the main chart above, I've labelled the short term and intermediate waves for this bull run that started on the 23rd of December last year. The measured move of that (A) wave would put price at 1274.3. That's the intermediate wave. The measured move of the short term wave, the minor (a) that started on January 27, would put price at 1283. I've labeled those waves on the chart and put a rectangle at the projected area.
The Heikin-Ashi chart shows a strong green candle for today, with a nice wick at the top and no wick on the bottom. That's about as strong a HA candle as you can get.
The volume profile chart shows that today we moved out of the short term value area but are meeting resistance at the top of the intermediate term value area. If price can push higher, there's a low volume area at the 1248 area that could provide some resistance.
Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Gold Bounces Sharply Off the 21 Day MAGold sold off in the overnight session and tagged the 21 day MA at 1217.5 and then sharply rebounded to close just above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. I have been calling for a tag of that 21 day MA since Monday when price broke through the ice and closed below those moving averages. But now, price is trading above them and the future direction seems like it may be for Gold to rise and resume the C wave which would put the next target at 1276.
Let's take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. There have been 4 doji candles in the last 5 days. That's a good indication of sideways price motion so we may need another day or 2 before the next direction is established.
The volume profile chart shows a very elongated high volume node at 1226. I am watching to see if price will rotate back down and tag it and will it then continue to tag the POC? Or, is there enough strength to break past the short and intermediate term value areas? Again, we are in a waiting pattern.
Disclaimer: comments here are for education purposes only and should not be taken as trade advice. All trading decisions are your own.
Gold Continues Moving SidewaysGold closed up 3.1 points on Tuesday but that was basically a move sideways. There was some volatility in the morning when Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen began her testominy. But while the DXY dollar index had a strong move up, Gold stayed basically flat. However, it is clear on the chart that Gold is still trading under the 6 and 8 day moving average so my bias is still to the downside, expecting Gold to hit the 21 day moving average. At some point.
Tonight I've combined the Heikin-Ashi chart with the Volume Profile chart. Today's candle was a Doji which signals either a reversal or continuation of the trend. If Gold does continue this downward trend, then I am still expecting price to hit the 21 day moving average or the gold line at the midpoint of the Bollinger Band.
The final chart tonight is a Volume Profile chart with each profile representing a day's trading. The white line is the closing price for each 30 minutes. Notice how the POC acts like a magnet? Well, the 21 Day moving average (gold line) is also a magnet. Let's see if it can attract price tomorrow or at least by the end of the week.
Disclaimer: this chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
Gold Breaks Through and Closes Below the 8 Day Moving AverageGold dropped 8.1 points on the day to close below the 8 day moving average. As the dollar rose, gold sold off and finally cracked the 8 day ma. It also closed below the forward adjusted closing price line represented as the cyan line. There is now a high probability that gold will touch the 20 day moving average which is the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands.
The Heikin Ashi chart shows that we are now in red territory, with 2 red candles in a row. If you look back a few days at the last green Heikin Ashi candle, you can see that it is a doji. Doji Heikin Ashi candles signify either a change or continuation of direction. Since that green doji has been followed by 2 red candles, it appears to have signaled a change of direction.
The volume profiles are still showing confluence of the POCs from the intermediate and short terms.
Whether or not we will see a resumption of the C wave and Gold moving higher in the near future is uncertain. For now though, it looks like there is more room to go on the downside.
Gold Ends last Week with WeaknessGold rose for the second week in a row, ending the week at 1234.7, up 12.8 points for the week. However, after reaching a high of 1246.6 on Wednesday, Gold fell on Thursday and Friday, touching but not breaking through the 8 day moving average.
So where does the precious metal go this week? Let's take a look at some of the technical indicators that I use.
Gold broke through the 6 day moving average but not the 8 day ma. If price does close below the 8 day ma, then statistically, the odds are that price will fall and hit the 20 day ma or the midpoint of the Bollinger Band you see on the chart.
I have also put a closing price line on the chart. The cyan line is pushed out 5 days into the future and offers a great look at where price may be going. Friday touched the this cyan line but did not break it.
So far, this is slightly bullish for Gold, potentially saying that this pullback at the end of the week is will be short lived and that the bullish move will continue.
On the bearish side, there are some compelling technical indicators as well. First, look at the Stochastic RSI at the bottom of this chart. The indicator has clearly breached the 80 line and it looks like the indicator will be cycling down. This is bearish.
Below is the Volume Profile version of the chart. The profile on the left is from election day through present. The profile on the right is for the bull move up starting on December 15, 2016. Notice how the POC is the same on both. With POCs acting as magnets, this could pull price down to it, at around 1213. This would also be bearish.
While there does seem to be some immediate bearishness in Gold, if the move up from the low of December 15, 2016 was in fact an A wave, then we are still expecting a C wave that will be equal or greater than the A wave. This is fundamental to Elliot Wave theory and would mean that this weakness is a simple corrective wave and that we should expect the C wave up to continue at some point in the near future. For now though, let's watch what happens if and when Gold gets to the 1213 level. That could be a strong pivot point.
Gold Tumbles on Dollar StrengthThursday started off promising with Gold hovering around the 1242 level. But then the dollar DXY broke out above the midpoint of the BB and Gold fell, closing the day below the 6 day moving average. At it's low, it touched the 8 day moving average were I am sure many people had their stops.
As the Friday session begins in Asia, Gold continues to fall. Statistically, once price breaks below both the 6 and 8 day moving averages, there is a high percentage probability that price will hit the 20 day moving average, or the midpoint of the Bollinger Band @1214.
Here is the volume profile chart that I've been showing the last few nights. On the long term profile on the far left of the chart, I had been thinking the price would roll up through the low volume area to POC at 1270. But now with price moving lower, it's interesting the the short term POC on the right profile is at the same level as the midpoint of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart above. Coincidence? Confluence? Let's see what happens. :-)
*Disclaimer: this information is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as trading advice.
Gold Gains Almost 8 Points Resuming It's Bullish TrendGold continued to move higher today, closing at 1243.1, a gain of 7.9 points for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index $DXY fell today which helped fuel Gold's rise. As I pointed out yesterday, the dollar had closed under the midpoint on the BollingerBand after having tried to break through that line of resistance and I thought that it would move lower today. It did and Gold was the beneficiary, continuing it bullish trend.
What we want to see now is Gold to keep hugging the outer BollingerBand, rising steadily between the BollingerBands and the rising 6 day moving average. You may want to use the 8 day moving average as a good place to put your stops.
You can have confidence in the bull trend as long as price stays close to the outer Bollinger Bands and above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. You can also use the Heikin-Ashi as a great way to monitor the trend. Look at the chart below. Following the colors is a great way to stay confident in your position. Green is Up and Red is Down. It doesn't get any easier than that. :-)
My final comment here is that you can see that price is trading in the middle of a low volume area. Price may pause here and try to fill in that area before making it's next move.
