Ashi
Gold Pauses and Closes Down Slightly on the DayAfter the big move up yesterday, Gold took a pause and closed down slightly to end the day at 1235.5. The low of the day touched the 1.5 Std Dev Bollinger Band at which point buyers stepped in and bought in anticipation of the next move. On a day where the dollar strengthened, Gold maintaining it's position can be seen as bullish.
On the chart below, I've added 2 volume profiles. The one on the far left is for the time range from Dec, 2015 through today. Notice how the Point of Control (cyan line) is almost exactly at 1273, which is the measured move from the first wave in this bull run. The current price at 1235 is at a rather elongated peak in the profile. If price can get past that peak, the hitting the POC should be a no brainer.
Gold Breaks Through Resistance on Strong Up DayGold broke out of the 1220 resistance level today and pushed up to a daily high of 1237.5. This was the breakout that I had been waiting for. Gold clearly wants to go higher. The first target is the .618 extension of the move from January @ 1241.7. A more likely target is 1278.6 which would be the measured move of the (A) wave. I have put the probably extensions on the daily chart.
It's interesting to note that there is a lot of options speculation at the 1267 level which is the .88 fib extension. A number of harmonic patterns use the .88 fib level so I am expecting to see some resistance there although only price action will tell how strong the resistance will actually be.
If the theory that last year was the start of a new bull market for the precious metal, then this is indeed an exciting time to be a gold bull!
I've highlighted the cyan BB at 1228.9 as a pullback area if you are looking to add to an existing position.
The Heikin-Ashi chart shows a strong bull trend. Personally I will not be taking any profits until the first red candle. :-)
This final chart is the weekly view with the fib extension from the low on Nov. 30, 2015 @ 1045. This shows the measured move @ 1457.9.
Gold Ends the Week touching the 1221 Resistance LevelGold rose higher today after shaking off a selling spree after the NFP numbers were released. Prices fell right to the 6 day moving average before buyers stepped in and gold prices rallied. Prices continued to move higher right up to the closing bell and the action stopped @ 1221.6. Let's see what happens next week but if price can finally break through the 1221 and close above it (yes, I know, I've said that before :) ), the first target would be 1241, the .618 fib extension of the (A) wave. However, if this is truely going to be an ABC pattern, then price will hit 1278.6, the full 1.0 measured move.
Here's the simplified Heikin-Ashi chart. Although we are in a solid green uptrend, today's candle was an inside candle which suggests that it might take price a couple more days to blast through the resistance.
Here's the weekly chart. Notice that price on the weekly is now right at the midline of the BB. That's equal to a 20 day ma. If price moves above here, the odds are good that it will move to at least the blue BB at 1284.
The final chart I want to look at is a monthly Heikin-Ashi chart. January ended as a red inside bar and so far, the February action has been all green. If price continues to rise, February could be a great month for the bulls.
Have a great weekend!
Gold Breaches 1220 but Ends the Day BelowGold pushed up past the 1220 resistance level for the 3rd time since the start of the year, only to be met with strong resistance and falling back under 1220 to be within the range from 1182 - 1220. While I am still long, the upper wick on today's candle is not the most encouraging for the bulls.
On the bullish side, price is still above the 6, 8 and 21 day moving averages and sandwiched between the 1.0 and 1.5 Bollinger Bands (blue and cyan respectively). The Heikin-Ashi chart below is a little more encouraging with the 3 previous days showing solid green candles without bottom wicks.
Tomorrow is NFP at 8:30 am EST. Let's see if that can push price past 1220 once and for all and get this bull moving!
Gold Pushes Up Against a Potential Triple TopGold started the day with a big selloff but then recovered after the FOMC and Janet Yellen announced that they would not be raising interest rates at this time. Gold is now attempting to break out of a potential triple top at $1220. If Gold can break through, then the first target would be 1241.7, the .618 fib extention from the bull run that started at the end of last year. With jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30 am EST and Non Farm Payroll on Friday at 8:30 am EST, there can be some potential big moves coming up for the precious metal.
The main chart today is complete with all the indicators that I use. The first chart below is the same but with Japanese Candlesticks, called Heiken Ashi. They are really good for showing trends. As you can see, we are now into day 3 of this uptrend.
On this next chart, I've removed most of the chart objects to show only the basic Bollinger Band and Moving Averages. It's clear to see that price has separated from the 6 and 8 day moving averages and has ridden the mid line of the Bollinger Band higher.
Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments. I am always interested in having thoughtful discussions on price action to improve all our trading.
Gold Breaks Out to Upside - BarelyGold rose ~15 points today and broke through the 6 and 8 day moving average. It also broke through the trend line starting back on election night, Nov 8. Price also failed to break below the mid line of the Bollinger Band. The next resistance level is at 1220 so let's see if Gold can move up and past it.
Look at the Heikin Ashi chart below. 2 days ago there was a red doji. Doji's on Heikin Ashi charts are good signals for either continuations or reversals. We now have 2 strong green candles after the doji.
The final chart tonight is below. It looks like we are entering the C leg. Also 4 days ago price firmly rejected the range below.
Gold update - shortFactors suggesting gold possible resumption of downtrend
1. Price/Momentum hidden divergence
2. Recent daily candle piercing 14 MAV, with suggestion of a close beneath this soon.
Trade is on chart.
Gold AB=CD Gold with a continued buy ( ideally closer to 1200 for entry), in which we are trading a potential BC leg.
The target is just below the .618 retracement @1250.
The point of invalidation would be 1176 ( beneath the 14 MAV) .
The trade would be closed short of target if the HA closes beneath a crossed 8/14 MAV.
Risk Reward is 2:1.
Gold worth a long shot on average. Entry for a long when price closes above the short term moving averages.
The point of invalidation is a close beneath the recent swing low @ 1122.
Target is a prior support level (Feb,March,June 2016 , & Fib 50 level) .
Risk Reward is 3 to 1.
If price is beneath target , and closes below the short term moving averages , the trade is closed.
AUDNZD - Bearish breakout from descending triangleAfter testing the lower bound of this descending triangle, AUDNZD appears to have made a jump lower. A pending sell order is set at 1.038 to catch this bearish breakout. This price point was selected in consideration for the 1.04 psychological support level. However, this is still a bit of a risky entry as the lower indicators are showing oversold values.
Recent support was shown in the 1.025 area. A conservative play would be to take profit at this level but price action will dictate how I handle this position once that level is approached.
EURGBP - Bullish trendline break at 50% retracementThe price for EURGBP has retraced to the 50% level of the upward move starting late May. This could set up to be a great risk reward opportunity. With the rejection of this key Fibonacci level and a trend line break for this retrace, I will wait one more day before making an entry decision.
The criteria for a buy entry here will be as follows:
Today's heiken ashi candle must stay green
There should be little or no lower wick on today's candle
The fast Laguerre should stay above 0.15.
The slow Laguerre should raise up above 0.0 (optional but would build confidence)
If everything looks good end of day tomorrow, an entry order will be place a few pips above the today's high.
GBPCAD - Bearish trend continuation and potential sell setupThe overall down trend appears to be holding for GBPCAD. Furthermore, the beginnings of a possible bullish bat pattern are taking shape. However, the current BC retracement is a little short at this point. Nevertheless, the pattern appears to be in proportion and a sell setup is likely before the end of the week or early next week.
AUDUSD Short LogicAUDUSD possible consolidation .74 - .77 in a double top or 3 drives ( as illustrated).
If Point C of potential Gartley can hold ( .7760) , we would be looking for a short setup close to the supply zone.
The short trade would follow the entry and exit rules for trend following with HA candle , listed by Dale _ Ansel .
Stop Loss @ .7840 above X.
Potential targets would be
1. Demand Zone .7420 - .7450
2. B Point to Prior Swing Low @ .7150 - .7180
3. D Point @ .7040
4. X Point @ .6830
AUDUSD Quick Scratch Setup 7/19/2016 1 Hour Heikin Ashi ChartA quick setup for AUDUSD on 1 Hour Heikin Ashi Chart...
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USDJPY Updated Scratch Setup 7/18/2016 1 Hour Heikin Ashi ChartWe are back with all in all USDJPY Potential Updated Scratch Setup 7/18/2016 On 1 Hour Heikin Ashi Chart
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GLOBAL MARKETS-U.S. stocks hover near record highs, oil falls and also Japanese Yen fell after the failed Turkey Coup. USD rose above JPY currently.
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Fist's Slow Move Heiken Ashi EMA7 Side by Side ComparatorGlaz's great slow-move HA with a couple of tweaks and an EMA7 applied. Works exactly llike the EMA6 strategy by Shiva Krishnan but with clear reversal arrows.
For folks new to trading, I'd strongly suggest you only trade with trend - catching reversals can be tricky: so many people get killed doing this. Additionally, the 'trade fear, not greed' principle is worth thinking about i.e. trading short is often more dynamic than trading long.
Publishing at 15M but designed for 1M. Might work across multiple time-frames.
Shiva's strategy suggests you take 2M trades from 1M charts. Others advocate 3M chart and 3M trade immediately after harami set-up or doji, with trend.
Fist's Harami Killer with EMA6 by the Fist of KhanSimple harami and doji indicator adapted from Repo32 Candlestick Identifier - a great piece of work and awesome respect to the originator. This script only shows harami and doji for use with Heiken Ashi in above/below comparison to traditional candlestick chart.
It leaves a clean chart without too many distractions so you can concentrate on price action.
A useful indicator for trading next candle/s in direction of trend off doji or harami. Use Shiva Krishnan's EMA6 method for additonal confirmation.
Publishing at 15M but works well on shorter time-frames.
Please do not just follow the dojis and haramis - general price action needs to be taken into consideration, of course. And please test your own strategy.
