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Asx200

ASX 200 @ 5 October 2021 5 Oct 2021 – Market Watch The last time I did an analysis on the ASX 200 was on 27 September (red arrow). I mentioned as long as the index doesn’t experience a successful push to 7500 levels, I would likely trim positions instead of collecting new ones. With uncertainties stemming from the twin events of the US debt ceiling and Evergrande, the ASX 200 has tested the lower boundary (7150 levels) of the support zone (highlighted in blue). Even though the index closed with a pin bar and on the upper boundary (7250 levels), I still think it’s too soon to say that this is the end of the bleed. As I mentioned on Sunday’s FB livestream, I am expecting the next 2-3 months to be a difficult period to trade. US President Biden has voiced out his pessimism of being able to raise the debt ceiling. If that is unsuccessful, will the printing of money end? Whether you like it or not, the global equity markets have benefitted from this additional liquidity and the thoughts/fears of even turning off the tap can send markets crashing. Evergrande finding a majority buyer for one of its subsidiaries has injected some confidence into the markets; at least for the near term. I still think more needs to be done to restructure the huge debt but I’m cautiously optimistic that the Chinese government will step in. As it is, there is already a directive to government-linked companies to do all they can to help out Evergrande. Reading between the lines, this usually means buying the distressed assets of Evergrande. To get more of my commentary on Evergrande, you can watch the livestream recording (text me for the link) starting from the 16-min mark. I have exited almost all of my positions last week and I am only left with one stock. Will I buy more? I am evaluating 1 or 2 possible buying opportunities, but I am not anywhere close to pulling the trigger yet. I don’t subscribe to the diamond hands philosophy, especially when it comes to my trading portfolio. Thus, I prefer to be very selective in this uncertain period. How about you? Are you collecting more stocks now? Or are you keeping your powder dry and buying in when the retracement has ended, and signs of market rebound has appeared? If you find this market analysis helpful, let me know in the comments. May the markets continue to be with us! Disclaimer:- I’m a mid-term trader and I hold my stocks between 1-3 months. I’m using Trend Following strategies and my analysis will be from a perspective as a Trend Follower. I’m sharing these analyses for learning purposes and as always, DYOR.
ASX:XJO
by Jerm88
2
UNI @ 4 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- UNI - First time doing a written analysis on UNI - Stock has had a good uptrend since IPO before hitting the psychological resistance (purple dotted line) - Today’s price action looks like a successful breakout, but the lack of volume is odd - Usually, a breakout is accompanied with strong trading volume - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest entry around current levels if believe the breakout will continue
ASX:UNI
by Jerm88
NVX @ 4 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- NVX - Previous analysis was done on 8 Sep - Suggested waiting for stock to retrace and successfully rebound - In last night’s FB livestream, I said that price is overextended and suggested waiting for a retracement first - Today, the stock retraced strongly to fall below the short-term average - Technically, the short-term average hasn’t been tested since end-July and it doesn’t look like it’s a good support - From the charts, a successful rebound look to be around 6.60 levels on the condition that the stock doesn’t retrace further - Stocks that have retraced strongly usually will form a LH first before the uptrend can continue healthily - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for the next rebound wave
ASX:NVX
by Jerm88
GNC @ 4 Oct 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- GNC - First time doing a written analysis on GNC - Stock is currently trading at a resistance that was formed during the height of last year’s pandemic crash (purple dotted line) - Since then, the stock has had more sideways consolidation interspersed with uptrends that last for a few weeks - Stock is bounding around the short-term support and a successful rebound from here will provide an opportunity for entry - A successful rebound is around 6.60 levels - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful rebound before plotting entry or waiting for a successful breakout of strong resistance
ASX:GNC
by Jerm88
BST @ 4 OCT 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- BST - First time doing a written analysis on BST - Stock re-started trading in late July - Since then, has had a 50% increase with nice uptrends - A nice test of the short-term average and a successful rebound will present a good entry opportunity - Stock volume is roughly less than 100k -> Illiquid stocks could mean that the stock may have sudden strong movements - Price action over the last 2 months shows quite healthy price volatility - A successful rebound close to 3.45 levels would represent a successful rebound - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful rebound before plotting entry
B
by Jerm88
ABB @ 4 Oct 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- ABB - First time doing a written analysis on ABB - In last night’s FB livestream, I suggested a breakout entry if believe the stock was capable of forming new all-time highs - Today, the stock created a new ATH but quickly retraced to form a bearish pin bar - Historically, the stock has had periods of uptrends interrupted by long periods of sideways consolidation - Stock is currently trading a resistance zone (blue highlighted zone) - A breakout entry would mean entering at a price that is far from the short-term support - Due to today’s bearish pin bar with above average volume, the entry for setup is on the risky side - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a better setup for entry
ASX:ABB
by Jerm88
Will the markets meltdown and hammer the bulls as yields rallyThe action has been very heavy this week and major indexes have been pressured lower. There is a lot for bulls to think about and many will be getting nervous. Will the FED come to the rescue again??....and will the Dip Buyers provide support again. In the video I take a look at my key markets and how I am approaching the current market action. I look at US 10-year bonds, the USD, SP500, DOW, Nasdaq and the ASX200.
CBOT:ZN1!
by TradeTheStructure
SHL @ 27 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- SHL - Previous analysis was done on 13 Sep -> suggested waiting for successful rebound to around 43.00 levels before plotting entry - Since then, the stock did not recover to around 43 levels - Instead, the stock closed below the mid-term support last Friday - In last night’s livestream, I shared that I was still holding the stock and I’m going to risk some of my unrealised gains to see if the stock is capable of an immediate recovery - Today, it closed above the mid-term resistance by the skin of its teeth - I’m still concerned by the lack of buying volume returning -> an important criteria that can drive a strong rebound - A successful rebound will be at 42.50 levels - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a series of HHs and HLs
ASX:SHL
by Jerm88
CXL @ 27 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- CXL - Previous analysis was done on 15 Sep -> suggested waiting for retracement and successful rebound - Since then, the stock created a new all-time high and quickly to test $5 levels - Price is quite extended at the moment and far from the short-term support - A successful rebound look to be around 5.35 levels - Due to the risky setup, a better way to manage this trade is to wait for another retracement and rebound wave - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for another retracement and successful rebound
ASX:CXL
by Jerm88
CSL @ 27 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- CSL - Previous analysis was done on 7 Sep -> suggested half entry around 310 levels if comfortable with overhead resistance zone - Since then, the stock continues to be bounded by the overhead resistance zone (blue shaded area) and the counter-trendline (purple dash line) - As mentioned in last night’s livestream, I raised my concerns that the stock might experience a retracement - Stock closed below the short-term average -> we could see a test of the mid-term support this week - A successful rebound would be when the stock goes back to 310 levels - R is below 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest half entry around 310 levels if comfortable with overhead resistance zone
ASX:CSL
by Jerm88
ACL @ 27 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- ACL - Previous analysis was done on 23 Sep - Suggested waiting for successful breakout of 4.60 levels accompanied with strong volume before plotting entry - After last Friday’s gap up and quick retracement, I thought the stock would retrace to the short-term support again - Today, the stock closed above the resistance with slightly above average volume - Stock looks to be a bit far from short-term support -> slightly higher risk - Continued price action above today’s high would be a successful breakout - Increased trading volume would be another good confirmation - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest entry above today’s high if believe the stock is capable of forming new all-time highs
ASX:ACL
by Jerm88
ASX 200 @ 27 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- 27 SEP 2021 – Market Watch As mentioned in last night’s livestream, the ASX 200 is currently trading in No Man’s Land. This is a zone where it is trading in a band that is bounded by a strong resistance (7400 levels) and strong support (7250 levels). Usually, when an index or stock is stuck in No Man’s Land, there needs to be a strong catalyst to break either the resistance/support. With the markets still feeling the unease stemming from Evergrande’s missed interest payment last Thursday and the continued lack of clarity on the US Fed’s tapering plans, I fear we might continue to be stuck in this tight band (blue shaded zone) for at least the coming week. The best-case scenario is if there is a successful push to 7500 levels and beyond. If it happens, I would be more bullish on the market. As it is, I am more trigger happy when deciding to trim positions. If Evergrande somehow presents a huge contagion effect at a global level similar to Lehman Brothers, the ASX 200 will likely drop to possibly even break 7150 levels. 88% of my stocks are green today. How about you? If you find this market analysis helpful, let me know in the comments. May the markets continue to be with us! Disclaimer:- I’m a mid-term trader and I hold my stocks between 1-3 months. I’m using Trend Following strategies and my analysis will be from a perspective as a Trend Follower. I’m sharing these analyses for learning purposes and as always, DYOR.
ASX:XJO
by Jerm88
10
XRF @ 23 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- XRF - Previous analysis was done on 14 Sep -> suggested waiting for stock to retrace and rebound successfully - Stock recently had a minor retracement and rebounded - On 30 Aug, suggested entry at 0.54 levels if believe the stock can create new highs - Since then, the stock has risen 24% in less than 4 weeks - If you missed the suggested entries, current price is no longer suitable for entry - Price is currently too far from the short-term support - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for stock to retrace and rebound successfully
ASX:XRF
by Jerm88
TLS @ 23 SEP 2021 Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- TLS - Previous analysis was done on 14 Sep - Suggested half entry at 3.95 levels if believe the stock can successfully breakout of resistance at 4.00 levels - Since then, the stock had a failed breakout and quickly retraced back to the mid-term support - Stock is rebounding and is again testing the strong resistance at 4.00 levels again - Successful breakout looks to be close to 4.10 levels - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for successful breakout before plotting entry
ASX:TLS
by Jerm88
REA @ 23 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- REA - Previous analysis was done on 9 Sep - Suggested waiting for successful breakout of 170 resistance levels - Since then, the stock has gone up 9% and broken through the counter-trendline (purple dotted line) - 170 levels has been a resistance since June 2021 (blue dotted line) - A successful breakout looks to be around 174 levels - If a breakout is unsuccessful, it’s important that the stock rebounds of the counter-trendline - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for successful breakout of 170 levels
ASX:REA
by Jerm88
4
MQG @ 23 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- MQG - First time doing a written analysis on MQG - Stock has a history of uptrend that is punctuated with sideways movements - Usually, a low volatility stock that doesn’t have strong pullbacks (less than 10%) - Stock would fit traders/investors who have a longer time horizon (ie. A few months) - Recent test of the short-term support and subsequent rebound has provided a potential rebound entry - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest entry above today’s high if believe the stock is capable of creating new all-time highs
ASX:MQG
by Jerm88
CHC @ 23 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- CHC - Previous analysis was done on 21 Sep – Suggested half entry at 18.30 levels or wait for successful breakout of 18.50 resistance levels - Since then, the stock has successfully broken out with above average volume - If you have taken the entry suggestion, there will be gains of 2-4% within 2 days - Stock is currently trading at all-time high levels - Price is too far from short-term support -> no good setup for entry - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for retracement and successful rebound
ASX:CHC
by Jerm88
ACL @ 23 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- ACL - Previous analysis was done on 16 Sep - Suggested waiting for successful breakout of 4.60 levels before plotting entry - Stock has been trapped in a band (moving sideways) for almost a month - It still respects the short-term support -> good thing - Stock has a lot of long shadows around the 4.60 resistance zone - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for successful breakout of resistance accompanied with strong volume before plotting entry
ASX:ACL
by Jerm88